Projecting the 2024 Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 2.0

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

But you're ignoring how he came to that record and just expecting it to go up while the truth is it's far more likely to go down. You're expecting Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to keep their "outcomes" in the W-L column while just improving on Gray's. Isolating just to the W-L record ignores how those results came about and you're basically just saying "well if they win more games they'll win more games." If you only win 15 games with an ERA under 3 there's no logical argument for winning more than 15 games with a 4 ERA. You're just saying "well they could win more games." If the pitchers replacing Gray only get 14 outings with 4 or more runs this season I promise you the team record in those games will be worse than 15-18 if those guys aren't throwing to a 3 or lower ERA. The ERA matters.

Good news - just saw on MLB.com that Pablo Lopez is their #1 candidate for Cy Young just ahead of Cole. Encouraging to see from a non- homer point of view!

An upbeat aside……Brandon Pfaadt was 3-9 in 19 starts and 96 innings for the D-backs last year and he was somewhat of a post season hero for them. Hoping for Big things from Louie Varland this year - 100 innings & maybe an ERA south of 4.25???

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

But you're ignoring how he came to that record and just expecting it to go up while the truth is it's far more likely to go down. You're expecting Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to keep their "outcomes" in the W-L column while just improving on Gray's. Isolating just to the W-L record ignores how those results came about and you're basically just saying "well if they win more games they'll win more games." If you only win 15 games with an ERA under 3 there's no logical argument for winning more than 15 games with a 4 ERA. You're just saying "well they could win more games." If the pitchers replacing Gray only get 14 outings with 4 or more runs this season I promise you the team record in those games will be worse than 15-18 if those guys aren't throwing to a 3 or lower ERA. The ERA matters.

Does this mean if the replacement pitcher’s ERA is above 2.79 the Team can’t win more than 15 of 33 starts?

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Too bad they haven't upgraded their starters more.  Way too many question marks.  Relying on hope and hype.  I hope I'm wrong but this could be their big problem area.  Go Twins!

Everything could be a problem area! Everything may be a grand success!!

Gotta rely on something - every staff can’t have 4 - 20 game winners.

Paddack is, at this point in their careers, better than Kenta Maeda………doesn’t mean he’ll win more games but he should pitch a similar amount of innings & with better stuff. Reasonable?

Varland/DeSclafani/Festa are charged with having a similar or better record than Gray’s ‘2023. He was 8-8. The Team was 15-18 in his starts. He threw 184 innings. My assumption is between the 3 of them they’ll throw 250 innings. I truly believe the Team can have a .500 record in the games started by these 3 guys, with their abilities, mildly improved offense & a better bullpen this doesn’t seem at all like a “stretch”.

For sure, Go Twins!

For all the pitching consternation, Fangraphs is still projecting the Twins to have the 5th best rotation and the 2nd best bullpen.

Pablo should be thought of as a Cy Young candidate, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober add in to become one of the best 1-2-3's in the league. Chris Paddack and DeSclafani should be at least capable 4-5 starters and Louie Varland is very good depth to have waiting in the wings. 

All the work they've done to bolster the bullpen will only help if the back end of the rotation falters. 

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Yes, the Twins only scored an average of 3.71 runs in games Gray started. Ober was next on the list of 'non-support' - half his 24 starts the Twins scored 3 or fewer runs, for average run support of 4.17. At the other end of the spectrum, they were over 5 runs of support for Varland (5.06, and scored four or more in 7 of 10 starts), Ryan (5.37 and four or more runs in 17 of 29 starts), and Lopez (5.47 and four or more runs in 21 of 32 starts). It's why the won-loss record isn't always a great indicator.

OTOH, Gray laid an egg in arguably the Twins' biggest post-season game, giving up 5 runs in 4 innings pitched against Houston in game 3  - after Lopez had pitched a gem in game 2. 

Not trying to stir up stuff here - would assume runs per game (more the better) associate to wins, generally.

The missing pieces are how skewed the runs scored may be across a number of games. For instance, the Team may have scored 7 runs in 3 of Gray’s starts & 1 or 2 in 6 other games. He may go 3-4 and pitch really well in all 9 games! This outcome, while having 3.75 runs per 9 support. This is just theoretical but could be why stats get misrepresented.

The other issue is that I’m assuming the “run support” per starter is based on the 9 inning score of their associated starts. If they leave the game tied or behind & the runs come later in the game they are probably not getting a win OR if they pitch well & have a lead & then the bullpen can’t hold the lead. Another negative outcome.

Perhaps, Boras will turn to the Twins again for a short term deal like Correa's for one of his prizes…if they aren't getting the offers they want.

Cody Bellinger had a couple low performance years before last year's rebound.

Same can be said for Snell as his two CY Young's were sandwiched around ho-hum years.

Boras may choose a high AAV short term deal, and get the big contract next year after proving last year was not a fluke. Twins would have to pony up for a year or two, but they did it for Correa.

Spring dreaming.

12 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

If a RH OF bat is not added, then one of Larnach and Martin (the only real position battle of ST) makes the team and the other plus Keirsey is the extent of our theoretical OF depth in AAA. All three of those players are unproven at the MLB level. With uncertainty about both Buxton’s health and Wallner’s sophomore season, our OF depth is insufficient. It would be smart to add a RH OF bat.  Sadly, Soler is signing a 3 yr deal with the Giants.

The starting staff is not only set, but solid with a true #1, possibly three #2 or #3 types, and two #5s who will both see plenty of starts this season,  Adding an additional arm now would only push Varland further down the SP chain - which is not what the FO wants. The goal is to get through the first several months with the six bonafide starters and then, if there are injuries or performance stumbles, see what SWR, Festa, Headrick and others can bring to the table or, alternatively, look to the trade market.

Barring injury, the reliever lineup is set. If Staumont is not ready, then there will be a battle for the final spot.

If all goes well, ST will be pretty boring. Let’s hope so.

Gotta say that before this evening I never paid attention to D. Keirsey at all. Looked at the invites to Spring Training and his 2023 trajectory looks pretty good! Great AA & then .264 BA & OBP of .370 at AAA in 39 games. Fast - plays CF…….seems like some competition for Martin!! He looks promising - maybe a September call up guy - at a minimum!