Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2015 Version 1.0

The roster is what I would expect, but I'm disappointed that they don't have roster spaces for Meyers and May.  That's why I don't understand why they signed Stauffer and gave arbitriation to Duensing, when you have a lot of options.

But I guess when you sign 30 year old pitchers to long term contract, you open up options due to injuries.  Just doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to me.

I think the Twins are going to make the pitchers compete for their jobs this year.  Obviously, some of the big contract starters are set in stone.  But i think May, Meyer, Stauffer, Theilbar, Tonkin, Pelfrey, Graham, Duensing, Oliverous, et all are going to have to earn their roster spot in spring training and then pitch well to keep it after that.  That is depth and that is good.

But is it really going to be a fair competition?  You have players with guaranteed contract versus rookies with minor league options.  The rookies most likely are going to be inconsistent like Gibson was last year, so it's easy to keep the veteran with the guaranteed contract and put Mays and Meyer's back to AAA. 

At some point you have to give them a fair run in a major league rotation if you are ever going to find out what kind of players you have.  It seems the front office has very little confidence in these players.

I agree with your predictions. The only difference I would have would be May in bullpen for Graham. I can see working out a trade to keep him though.

Where are the young arms? Some of May's starts were quite good, weren't they? Hopefully Nunez isn't long for this team.

There is nothing easy about this rotation business.   Twins probably wanted to go with young guys but are afraid of failure and having plan B of the Walters DeVries of the world.   No team commits 10's of millions as a plan B backup and there are no alternatives that would satisfy most fans so you get the cart leading the horse.    If they are both healthy and aside from the contracts  I see no rational argument for placing Nolasco above Milone so my rotation would be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone and May with Meyer, Nolasco and Pelfrey in the pen and in that order.    Even with Seth's projected rotation it is not too hard to compare it favorably to the 2010 division champs rotation.   Hughes beats Liriano, Pavano probably edges out Santana.  Gibson and Baker are a push and Meyer, May, Milone, Nolasco should be able to outperform Blackburn and Slowey.  Not sexy but solid which would be a welcome result after the last several years.

I would definitely agree with this prediction under the previous staff.  My totally unfounded hope with Molitor is that he'll realize the truth in your statement of "nothing left to prove in AAA" and have May and Meyer on the 25 man.  Stuffing them in AAA due to contractual convenience only delays our return to relevance.  Our rotation should be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Meyer, as far as I'm concerned.  Put Nabisco and Milone in the bullpen or AAA.  Dump Pelf.  If we have young players that are ready to take their lumps in the majors, they should not be blocked by less talented veterans that aren't going to be part of the next division winner.  This team needs to fully commit to the rebuild and quit crawling toward mediocrity. 

The way for young players to avoid being "blocked by less talented veterans" is for the to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves and win jobs like Gibson did in spring training last year and Santana & Vargas did during  the season.  Any young player that needs to be "given" a shot rather than forcing the issue and "taking" his shot probably isn't going to be going to part of the next division winner either.

Can I ask: Who's freshly out of options this year?

Milone? Pressly? Nunez?

The way for young players to avoid being "blocked by less talented veterans" is for the to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves and win jobs like Gibson did in spring training last year and Santana & Vargas did during  the season.  Any young player that needs to be "given" a shot rather than forcing the issue and "taking" his shot probably isn't going to be going to part of the next division winner either.

Gibson would not have made the roster out of spring training if the Twins had been able to sign Santana or Garza like they wanted last year.  Frank Viola needed a couple years and 50 starts with an ERA around 5.00 before he turned the corner and was Cy Young and World Series MVP, so I think giving him a shot worked out. 

When you are not a contender, I think it's better to go young than lose with old players.  Danny Santana didn't force his way in to the majors, he was given a shot only because they screwed up the CF position so badly.  Once there, he made the most of it but if Hicks had played at any kind of respectable level, we never would have seen Santana up in the majors.

I think your projection is spot on.  I hope that Meyer wins the 5th spot as his ability to fulfill his ace potential is very important for the Twin's future.  I have no problem with the "logjam" of pitchers, young and old.  When your rotation is as bad as ours has been the last several years you want plenty of competition so nobody is given a spot.

It will work itself out as Milone has an option, Pelfrey can be released if need be and I think people are making a big leap of faith with May.  He may make it, but there is an equal chance that he goes back to AAA one more time.

I guess I would like to see Hicks start off in the minors with Schafer and Robinson platooning in center field.

I think they should start Pelfrey on a conversion to relief pitcher but do so with him in AAA until he appears serviceable.

Milone and Nolasco as the 4th and 5th starters with May and Meyer at the ready in AAA. It's a long season and there is nothing wrong with them spending the first month or two trying to get on a roll while we see if Nolasco and/or Milone can return to form. Both had been solid starters fairly recently.

I prefer to keep May/Meyer in a starters role. Sometimes relievers become good starters. That is true. But, IMHO the best path for these 2 is not going from starter to reliever and back to starter. To me that is just putting extra hurdles in front of them. Also, not a big believer in tossing a starter in the pen and saying go be a reliever just because he is your next best option at starter.

If we are fortunate enough to have May/Meyer both work out their final issues this year and be kicking the door down to the major leagues while at the same time Nolasco/Milone both return to form, albeit unlikely, it would be a great problem to have.

Gibson would not have made the roster out of spring training if the Twins had been able to sign Santana or Garza like they wanted last year.  Frank Viola needed a couple years and 50 starts with an ERA around 5.00 before he turned the corner and was Cy Young and World Series MVP, so I think giving him a shot worked out. 

 

When you are not a contender, I think it's better to go young than lose with old players.  Danny Santana didn't force his way in to the majors, he was given a shot only because they screwed up the CF position so badly.  Once there, he made the most of it but if Hicks had played at any kind of respectable level, we never would have seen Santana up in the majors.

The point is that all those guys, at one point or another, and to varying degrees had opportunities presented to them and took those opportunities and ran with them.  If Santana had performed in a Hicks esque manner he would have been back in Rochester in short order.  Same for Vargys.

I agree with your list as of now, Seth.  It will be interesting to see how it changes.

I wouldn't let Pelfrey have a rotation spot in April regardless of salary.  Let him have Swarzak's old job the bullpen -- if he can handle it.  Maybe he works his way into high leverage relief.  Maybe he washes out.

Milone has an option (and he's tradeable if healthy).  I can see May or Meyer beating him out of a spot in the rotation.  I would go with May as of now.

I like Hicks.  That is, I think he will qualify for arbitration (maybe even free agency) someday.  I just don't know if it is with the Twins.  Having said that, I would have his ticket punched for Rochester already.  And I don't think a Schafer/Robinson platoon will work.

I think that Sano, Rosario, Polanco, and Kepler are not yet ready for the Show.  That means the only position player on the 40-man roster in Rochester will be Chris Herrmann.  And he's on the bubble.

As a Rule 5 draftee, JR Graham is by definition on the bubble.  Aaron Thompson is on the bubble, too, and Caleb Thielbar should be.  So there's room to maneuver.

Rochester should have a pretty good rotation and bullpen.

Starting with the pen.

The only guy I would have in red is Perkins.

Casey Fien's strike out rate was down all last year. The combination of extreme fly ball and a strike out rate that dropped from 29.9% to 19.6%. It is a myth that he fell apart at the end. The strike out rate was around 20% all year and he was a disaster waiting to happen. The disaster struck in the second half. Given his fly ball rate, he needs to move his strike out rate back towards 30% to be in the pen of a winning team. If he doesn't show it is the spring, I would option him out and have him show it in AAA.

There were 58 left handed non closer relievers in the major leagues last year (30+ appearances). Brian Duensing was 51st in strike out rate, 50th in FIP and 39th in OPS+ against. He isn't likely to be better next year.

Tim Stauffer's performance outside of Petco Park has been poor. He needs to show he can pitch well outside of Petco or he needs to be released.

Caleb Thielbar's rankings compared to the 58 lefties above were 47, 30 and 43. He can still be optioned and may need to show it in AAA.

If the Twins are going to return to a winning team, they need to have players who rank in the middle or better. If they are below the middle, they need to have the upside of youth. These four need to show they are better than the average guy in their role or they need to be optioned or released.

All of these guys have earned the right to fight for a job in the bullpen this spring. None of them should be locks to make it. The Twins need to take the best 12 north.

Jorgy, I agree with you on Duensing and Thielbar.

Stauffer's xFIP- (which is adjusted for park and league) was 88 in 2014 and 85 in 2013 where 100 is average and lower is better.  I like the signing.

For perspective, Perkins xFIP- was 82 in 2014 and 66 in 2013.

Fien's as 102 and 68.

Thielbar's was 114 and 104.

Duensing's was 118 and 94.

Perkins has only had a K% above 28% once, in 2013.

Jorgy, I agree with you on Duensing and Thielbar.

 

Stauffer's xFIP- (which is adjusted for park and league) was 88 in 2014 and 85 in 2013 where 100 is average and lower is better.  I like the signing.

 

For perspective, Perkins xFIP- was 82 in 2014 and 66 in 2013.

Fien's as 102 and 68.

Thielbar's was 114 and 104.

Duensing's was 118 and 94.

 

Perkins has only had a K% above 28% once, in 2013.

On Stauffer's xFIP...

Over his career, his xFIP on the road is almost 1 run greater than at home. Since xFIP is adjusted for park, they should be close. The number are already adjusted for Petco.

Which pitcher will he be with the Twins? Why is he a below average reliever away from Petco? If it isn't the Petco guy, he needs to be released. He certainly shouldn't be a lock for a job.

On Stauffer's xFIP...

 

Over his career, his xFIP on the road is almost 1 run greater than at home. Since xFIP is adjusted for park, they should be close. The number are already adjusted for Petco.

 

Which pitcher will he be with the Twins? Why is he a below average reliever away from Petco? If it isn't the Petco guy, he needs to be released. He certainly shouldn't be a lock for a job.

xFIP- is adjusted for park. xFIP is not.  It's not surprising he would have a differential.  It was only 0.39 in 2014.  Of course we are talking Small Sample Size of only 30-34 innings pitched.

I don't think it's fair to include his xFIP as a starting pitcher anymore than it is to include Perkins'.

xFIP- is adjusted for park. xFIP is not.  It's not surprising he would have a differential.  It was only 0.39 in 2014.  Of course we are talking Small Sample Size of only 30-34 innings pitched.

 

I don't think it's fair to include his xFIP as a starting pitcher anymore than it is to include Perkins'.

Thanks for the correction.

He has road xFIPS as a reliever of 3.46 and 3.78 (near NL league average) in mostly low leverage situations. He should be projected to decline given his age. I am still not convinced he should be a lock for a spot in the pen. He needs to show he is one of the best 12. If he isn't clearly better than Oliveros or other young arm, the twins need to go with the upside of the younger pitcher with team control beyond 2015.

This team could do worse than to take a page out of the Cardinals, Rangers, Giants and a few other successful teams and put Mays and Meyer out in the bullpen and sort of control the situations they are brought into. Build up their confidence a little, stretch them out and maybe put them in the rotation come August or September.

Looking at a possible starting lineup for this coming season, and hoping for improvement from youth, and no regression from vets, and the overall offensive potential with a manager that seems willing to play to strengths, I can feel somewhat optimistic, espcially and Santan and Nolasco deliver:

Batting order:

1. Danny Santana - CF: I think he should stay in CF until someone better can play there, or move him to SS at least. Are hicks and Schaffer better than Escobar? At this point, no way.

2. Brian Dozier - 2B: No surprise here.

3. Joe Mauer - 1B: Here’s hoping for a big bounce back year. His average season would keep the juice flowing at the top of the lineup.

4. Trevor Plouffe - 3B: Not the hot pick here, but looking at his run production last season, and the desire to set up a righty lefty swine in the middle of the lineup, this is where he goes. If he can continue to improve his plate discipline, and average, he could fill this role quite well.

5. Kennys Vargas - DH: Love having a switch hitting DH with big time power, especially in the 5 hole. Of course I hope he builds on last season’s performance.

6. Torii Hunter - LF: I’m not sure if Torii was signed to play right or left field, but I like Oswaldo too much in RF to change that. Here’s another tough out in the middle of the lineup with some pop. I debated flip flopping him for Plouffe in the clean-up slot, and that could change, but I like this configuration better at the moment.

7. Oswaldo Arcia - RF: Possible in the 5 hole as well - I like him in the 7 spot,  hella power deep into the batting order. If his average climbs, the 5 spot is his.

8.Kurt Suzuki - C: Having this guy hit 8 is a luxury: over .700 ops, rarely whiffs, keeps the rally going.

9. Eduardo Escobar - SS: Pretty underrated on these boards from all the Santana to SS talk on these boards. Good defense AND offense from your #9 hitting shortstop, sign me up!

I could see some of those big numbers like 20, 16, 13, 12 runs of last season on good nights.