Looking Back at How Derek Falvey & Co. Have Transformed the Twins

During the offseason, they largely did what I would have done (albeit slower). At the trade deadline they largely did what I would have done (but not exactly). 

The biggest problems are the decisions not around those two events.

The issues:

1 - It's rare for a communication problem to be so bad in an organization that it's visible to outsiders.

2 - Whether you agree that Molitor knows the fundamentals of managing or not, it should be obvious the Twins won't win a championship with him.

3 - The Twins bullpen was not good at the start of the year and they managed to fix it ... but they didn't realize they fixed it so they kept tinkering and made it worse.

There wasn't much they could do about the injuries and suspensions but both showcase how thin the team's talent is.

I'm hoping for some specifics at some point, though.

I would like to know too but they are not going to broadcast the strategies they hope will give the team a competitive advantage. We will need to read between the lines. The people they brought on does imply some very specific things about their assessment of past practices, what needed to be done, and even what they are doing about it. These are people that have demonstrated thought leadership. They will bring with them practices that will be implemented here. This is probably the most crucial aspect of anything that has gone on in the last couple years. Of course, the impact of these actions will never be black and white and it will take a couple more years before we can judge the effect. This is never going to be accepted by the masses who demand immediate change.

I know this is a Falvey-Lavine discussion and talking about the previous regime tends to take things off the rails but in my opinion... The previous regime dealt Falvey-Lavine a 3 of Diamonds and 8 of Clubs. Therefore... It's relevant to the discussion.

 

I'll add to your point.

 

I'm not that concerned about the playoff wins. You gotta make the playoffs to get a playoff win. I have two serious points of contention right now and my hope is that Falvey and Lavine will be the people who fix it... pronto.

 

1. Since Target Field opened April 12, 2010. The Twins have the 2nd worst record in baseball. 650 Wins 791 Losses for a 45.1 Winning Percentage. Only the Marlins have a worse record over that span.

 

2. Since Target Field opened... we have not produced or acquired a SUPERSTAR!!! Not one. Rosario or Berrios might get there but they haven't got there yet in my opinion.

 

Those two things together should be hard to accomplish simultaneously . The Marlins have been worse but they did manage to produce Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich. Bad records means high draft picks, bad players means more opportunity to locate a player.

 

It took a concentrated commitment to mediocrity to achieve this. It took a front office saying we have Trevor Plouffe we are set at 3B, we don't need to find anyone better.

 

It took consistent failure to develop a 1st round pick since Joe Mauer in 1991 or maybe Denard Span in 1992 to accomplish it. Maybe we can count Hicks in 2008 or Kyle Gibson in 2009 has an example of development but we only have really had one decent year of Gibson and we really didn't get to enjoy any of Aaron Hicks playing well.

 

Speaking of trades, It took lack of activity in the trade market to accomplish it. The Twins have made 54 trades since 2003 and that is the 2nd lowest.

 

They committed to mediocrity, didn't try to improve it and were unable to develop anyone who could surpass it.

 

The reason we don't have playoff wins is because we don't have wins to get us to the playoff. With the 2nd worst record in baseball since Target Field opened.

 

This roster should have been fully stocked for Falvey and Lavine to work with.

 

It wasn't.

We've heard rumblings that they've had to spend a lot of their time fixing the systems behind the curtains. By all accounts I've heard, the Twins were running two-bit operation.

 

To use an analogy, it sounds like everyone else was streaming and the Twins were still adjusting the rabbit ears and coax cables.

By all accounts made public, there has been little turnover in the Twins baseball development areas. A few coaches “reassigned” and a few more let go. Doesn’t sound like the house cleaning that was/is clearly needed.

The Twins mediocrity was not accidental. The Twins for years were run by TR in concert with Pohlad as a bottom line business. Every move or action they took was made with the intent to make things look like they were going in a positive direction, but at the least possible expense. Safe experienced veterans, with some name recognition, and past their prime. Good marketing moves, poor baseball moves. This was a P&L team. I don't know if that will modify or change, but it seems to have this last winter. That's where I hope this rebuilding of the system is taking us. If it doesn't, we are falling into the old, "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me"!

I think expectations have to take account of the fact that Falvey inherited a much weaker set of talent than was believed at the time (and through the beginning of this season). The notion that the new front office could quickly field a contender was 100% based on the idea that Buxton and Sano would be at least good major leaguers, if not more.

I do not see any set of realistic actions that the front office could have taken that would have changed where the Twins are at this point (except maybe to make it even worse by trading prospects). I would like to see better roster management, but even that is difficult to assess because Molitor was forced on Falvey, and I don't know if field staff-front office differences play a role.

So yeah, there's ticky-tack stuff that is not great, but that's minor in the scheme of things. Falvey has clearly been leading an effort to modernize the front office and build out the infrastructure that is necessary to compete in today's game. 

For people who aren't happy with the standings, I guess my first question is - when did you start talking about the need to move on from the Ryan era and embrace a modern approach to management? I was saying that back when the Twins were still winning division titles, because it was obvious that the Twins were going to pay down the road for their old-school ways. 

I like to say we don't know how this front offices drafts have been yet because were several years away from knowing real results of these drafts. Yes they look good now but alot of things can happen with these new prospects before they arrive at the major league level. Terry Ryan plan if go back look at articles of what he wanted to do was to expand the scouting department to find more talent. This was never done and i believe that business side of Twins also wanted to update analytical side of the organization. I also believe the business side wanted to keep Ryan on as advisor and this is speculation on my part so they would have somebody they could consult on the performance of this new front office. My opinion is of this front office they may have put together very highly competitent analytical department and scouting department but organizational they are struggling to put together strong developmental and organization to deliver quality players to the major leagues. Also with this is understanding of putting team together and signing right players to longterm contracts and getting team that will play together that can compete and win. I think last year was very telling on this they had no clue they had club that could win as made up and if you would have added a few pieces they could have gone further in the playoffs. There actions of selling at trade deadline and even after they did win wild card was to say that Ryan had alot to do with the club wining .

Second thing i would address is the loosing at Target field over the last 10 years could have been expected. We had club that had been scouting and finding players that were suited for the dome and artificial turf. Suddenly we had new stadium designed traditionally with grass and out door conditions requiring different skill sets and different players. Also the latter was most common type stadium and so more clubs to compete with to find the elite players that could compete in these stadiums. When they were in the dome there were only handful of clubs looking for some of these same type players. What all Minnesotans hated about dome was what helped give them advantage over alot of other organizations. Think about it experts always picked the Twins worse than they performed because they had players who knew how to win on their home stadium. We had players that were quick and new how to beat ball on the turf to get a hit and these quick players were better at catching ball on that turf. Also we had quirks of stadium of tracking the fly balls, the baggy in right, and also the noise which created excitement for our players. So we had advantage of winning with this stadium now with the new stadium were like all the rest and the advantage goes to them because they have been drafting and finding players that fit this type of stadium. Were just getting begining of players drafted for our stadium and same time we had to redo whole scouting department to change what type of talent were looking for now. There are also many more things that go with this change in stadium.

Getting back to front office what we have is theoritcal front office with little experience of putting together a team and is gun shy of signing anybody to longterm contract because of fear of making a mistake. They have offered long term contracts but were none starters for the players and agents so we have not any progress on that front or even signing of any major league free agents except like we did last year bunch of one year deals looks good on paper but put winning team on the field. Busines side of Twins was afraid of Ryans damage to the brand of Twins because of his failures and perception he was old school and behind the times. Now we have had this front office group and i will state they have hurt brand more than Ryan ever did because the product on field does not have any player right now people would be interested coming seeing and style of baseball is dull and boring like somebody else has stated here. Also they have hurt the Twins chances of signing existing players with recent moves and attracting new free agents will be difficult. The times have changed i hear people say money brings players that is true for part of it but other thing is players today want to play on winners or chance of winning and right now we don't have that here. Today's players are different than the past they want to be on winner look at all the major sports elite players are accepting less money to play on club that can win a championship. This Front Office needs to look at itself and better soon start making some changes on how they operate or ownership will be making changes because the bottom line is when attendance falls and tv viewership falls changes usually follows. I willing to bet they will feel the real pressure this coming winter when season tickets sales drop and what fox sports decides on next years telecasts.  

Listen, this FO is starting Chris Gimenez at 1B.

Want to see one of the major problems with this team?  Here is their position players with more than 100 AB's at AAA Rochester with their age and AAA BA:

1.   William Astudillio  26   (with Twins)   .267

2.   Nick Buss  31   .239

3.Chris Carter  31   .187

4.  Jake Cave  .25  (with Twins)  .259

5.   Jermaine Curtis  30  .200

6.  Taylor Featherstone  28  .167

7.   Nick Gordon  22   .212

8,   Zach Granite  25  .211

9.  Juan Gaterol  30  .284

10.  Jeremy Hazelbakker  30  .188

11.   Jon Kemmer 27   .224

12.  Taylor Motter  28  .182

13.  Jordan Pacheco    32   .163

14.   Gregorio Petit  33  .268

15.   Leonardo Regginatto  28   .207

16.  Brock Stassi  28  .211

17.   Kennys Vargas   28  .240

18.  LaMonte Wade 24   .224

And the players with few than 100 ABs are not much to write home about either.

While a couple of actual prospects had poor season, this FO has stocked out AAA team with absolute rejects.  I get what the purpose of AAA is, but the guys this FO selected almost appear to be sabotage.  How can they be so inept, up and down the AAA lineup, unless you are trying to be inept??????

The previous regim's problem was sitting on their hands.

They put a few decent clubs together, but would never take the initiative to supplement the roster via trade and/or free agency. It felt like they never made a serious run at anything, even when they had a roster with multiple Cy Young awards and multiple MVPs within 5-6 years. It was a terribly botched situation that, by the grace of a higher power, fell out of the sky and flopped into Ryan's lap (Santana in the rule 5, cheaping out with Mauer at #1 and having it work out).

Not only would they not make a run when the talent was there, but they would never be aggressive sellers, either.

The new guys seem to be aggressive, and commit to a plan beyond the bottom line, and I like that.

Not everybody has 5-10 years to invest in their baseball fan careers watching these two rookies play fantasy baseball with their Team. It would be different if I were a fair weather fan but I am not. I can't help it. We all know these fools are gone as soon as a job opens in Texas, or Boston, or for the Cubs. They will flip us off and leave their mess in the Target Field parking structure. Maybe the Pohlads could just retire from ownership and sell the team locally for a real new start?...I dont have the answers but after what I've seen these guys arent it. They are using us as a personal training ground ...

Let's take a step back here and look at this analyticly. 

1.  For 2 - 3 years most true baseball publications ranked the Twins farm system in the top 3 or at least the top 5, the bulk of those players are here now and the Twins are not winning.

2. The two biggest prospects from this group are heading toward or worse than any expert would have called their floor.  Is this a development issue or an issue with the type of person that was drafted.

3. Everyone develops at a different pace, are this group just pushing the panic button way too early.

4. At least a few of this players (Berrios, Romero) should be locked up to contracts which buy out some of their FA years, if the FO fails to do this in this offseason, I would read it as a culture or clubhouse problem that needs to be solved quickly.  Failure to do so means we will become a development club for the big market teams, who will be the later prime years of our better players because we will need lightning in a bottle to get all good players from the farm system together at one time.

5. 2019 needs to see how Polonco(was it the PED's or do he have talent) and Kepler grow.  Lack of growth would tell me that they are replaceable parts and not part of a Twins team the can win.

6.  I like Mauer, but if 2019 is a trial and developement year there is no reason to have Joe on this club as he is not part of a 2021+ future.

7.  If you intend to compete in 2019, you need to sign a front line starter(ace or near ace) no matter what the price and at least a couple of bullpen pieces(8th or 9th inning pieces) to give yourself a chance.   Failure to do so will tell me that the new FO is waiting for their pieces to develop and do not care about the near future.

8.  From what I am seeing from the bullpen pieces that Ryan tried to develop is that not any of them have enough command to make an impact here.  Do not know the status of Anderson and if he needs a 40 man spot at this time, but have seen enough of the numbers at Rochester and Chattanooga to tell that none of the youngsters are lights out enough to make a difference here at this time.

9.  You can never have enough pitching so the new FO's effort in this area is commendable.  Now we see how they do at the AA and AAA level. 

10. Noted in a post above the Rochester club this year was AAAA types and not good long term reenforcements for the major league club.  That could just be the lull between waves or the fact the most of the 2013 - 2014 draft classes look like washouts. 

I had a couple hopes with the new front office, they would give the younger players opportunities and stop the rolling out 30+ players.  Based on the waiver claims and who they are bring up, doesn't look like this is going to happen. 

Also I hoped with the increased analytical approach, they would be able to find valuable players we have been missing.  Based on who we have picked up and signed compared to who we have lost, it looks like we are losing better players than we are picking up.

With the draft, I expected in 2017 when you have the first overall pick, you should have a good draft.  It will be interesting to see how Ryan's 2016 draft compares to the 2018 draft since both we middle of the draft.

It's probably too early to give up on the FO, but early returns don't look good.  They were inexperienced when hired, so hopefully this is just a learning curve.  This offseason will be big to show they have a idea how to build a roster.

No point in going into the weeds on this. Very simply this team is in disarray and the only goal is to take the field next spring with a semblance of a major league baseball team. No plan, no systematic method of upgrading or even maintaining a level of talent. If you want to see what seats of pants with wings look like, check the back sides of F/V and rest of Twins' management.

I agree that giving the front office credit on their drafts is premature to say the least. Who cares if they look good in the low minors?

They need to be developed. Which has been a MAJOR problem with this organization for years. Sure, Falvine moved a few pieces around and a few out. But there is no evidence yet that player development has improved.

Guys that are on the cusp of the majors had two years with Falvine’s staff. Most of those that have debuted this year have done poorly.

We've heard rumblings that they've had to spend a lot of their time fixing the systems behind the curtains.  By all accounts I've heard, the Twins were running two-bit operation.  

 

To use an analogy, it sounds like everyone else was streaming and the Twins were still adjusting the rabbit ears and coax cables.

That very well could be the case, and it certainly wouldn't shock me, but I do find it odd that they would've kept so many who contributed to the organization falling to that level. 

I like many/most of the trades so far.  But overall, the new FO seems to be learning on the job.  And learning slowly.  They certainly don't seem to have accomplished anything yet.  Like some others that have posted, I could not care less about the new 'processes' they have put in place...the processes will constantly evolve, what's brilliant today is obsolete tomorrow.  Win baseball games at the major league level.  And they've gone gone backwards in that regard.  

It will be an interesting off-season.  I guess they have to wait another year on Buxton and Sano.  But if Buxton/Sano turn out to be closer to what we've seen in 2018 than what we've seen in brief periods of success...then, we'll end up wishing the FO had pulled the plug and went full re-build mode.  This team is frighteningly close to looking at 2020 and still having zero established players that you would build around.  On truly good teams, guys like Rosario and Berrios are just nice pieces.

Not everybody has 5-10 years to invest in their baseball fan careers watching these two rookies play fantasy baseball with their Team. It would be different if I were a fair weather fan but I am not. I can't help it. We all know these fools are gone as soon as a job opens in Texas, or Boston, or for the Cubs. They will flip us off and leave their mess in the Target Field parking structure. Maybe the Pohlads could just retire from ownership and sell the team locally for a real new start?...I dont have the answers but after what I've seen these guys arent it. They are using us as a personal training ground ...

So you think they are bad executives, don't know what they are doing, and aren't trying to win. But at the same time you think that the Red Sox or Cubs are going to offer them high level positions?

That's more than a little bit contradictory.

I guess it is a little bit of a contradiction when you look at it that way. I guess my approach is that the way they seem when they show up on the media is so confident, almost arrogant. Like we dont have to tell you everything, just trust us. I will give you one example and let you decide. Last year's World Series featured a start from Yu Darvish against the Astros. Granted he has been injured a lot quite frequently, but I made a prediction. The Astros would rake him and he would crumble because he has little or no playoff experience, and he has nothing the Astros havent seen in 19 intradivision games per year.

For how many months did we hear last off season about all the offers and counter offers made to the Darvish camp. In hindsight thank god he never accepted. if I can see what Falvine cannot..then i will send in my resume now. I did think the Odirizzi trade was good. I thought Arrietta was the best F.A. available. I also knew Lynn was a damn good battler with a winner's pedigree. We *naughty language* up by trading him.
Maybe this year was overwhelming to our young leaders. The trade deadline deals, the handling of the Escobar trade, the Buxton fiasco, and the W.t.f? with Sano only underscores my argument. Are you happy, Twins Fan , leaving these guys in charge? Sadly its not up to us. I would rather talk about who's gonna start game one of the playoffs. Sadly i doubt we ever will get to discuss that again in my lifetime.

For whatever their reasons, they are guilty of ruining major league baseball in 2018 for me. If you make the playoffs, you got a fighting chance. If you tank every season at the 100 game mark, then you never have ANY chance. And this Is the second year in a row. They tried to do it in 2017 as well. If this were during the contraction era, i would have to seriously reconsider my vote.

I guess it is a little bit of a contradiction when you look at it that way. I guess my approach is that the way they seem when they show up on the media is so confident, almost arrogant. Like we dont have to tell you everything, just trust us. I will give you one example and let you decide. Last year's World Series featured a start from Yu Darvish against the Astros. Granted he has been injured a lot quite frequently, but I made a prediction. The Astros would rake him and he would crumble because he has little or no playoff experience, and he has nothing the Astros havent seen in 19 intradivision games per year.

 

For how many months did we hear last off season about all the offers and counter offers made to the Darvish camp. In hindsight thank god he never accepted. if I can see what Falvine cannot..then i will send in my resume now. I did think the Odirizzi trade was good. I thought Arrietta was the best F.A. available. I also knew Lynn was a damn good battler with a winner's pedigree. We F—-ed up by trading him.

Maybe this year was overwhelming to our young leaders. The trade deadline deals, the handling of the Escobar trade, the Buxton fiasco, and the W.t.f? with Sano only underscores my argument. Are you happy, Twins Fan , leaving these guys in charge? Sadly its not up to us. I would rather talk about who's gonna start game one of the playoffs. Sadly i doubt we ever will get to discuss that again in my lifetime.