Let's Find a Role for Devin Smeltzer in 2020

The Twins should have gathered more major league data last year from Smeltzer and Dobnak instead of gathering all the data they gathered from Perez instead

That data would be helpful when trying to decide who pitches in the playoffs in 2019 and who gets an opening day rotation spot in 2020.

It's risky to hand Smeltzer or Dobnak an opening day job.

I'd look for 4 pitchers from outside the organization so those two can compete for next man up. 

Smeltzer would have to win out in competition against Littell, Stashak, and maybe Thorpe for that first out of the pen role. And if the Twins sign a high-leverage inning stud and keep Romo too, which they should do, I think, then maybe he's fighting Alcala for a spot too?

With either 7 or 8 man pen, at least a couple guys should ha e at least one option left. That means plenty of room for Romero, Alcala, Smeltzer, etc, to make contributions.

I think Smeltzer can be a key guy, whether #5 starter or middle man.

At the time of the trade in 2018 Smeltzer was a AA reliever and finished a AA reliever. He had no innings in AAA. Isn’t it possible that every inning he threw in the minors last year was key to his development and any success in the majors? How many of the 14 starts in AAA do you suggest the Twins should have used for major league data rather than AAA development? Half of them? Would that have made a difference in whatever data they can collect in the majors that they can’t collect in the minors? What data would be collected? It is the same ball. The same machines collect all of the data on his pitches. They have a huge database to match those pitches against similar pitches in the major leagues. His pitches aren’t going to behave differently from the major league mound.

Dobnak was even further away. Development matters.

I am with you on the give a shot to a 28 year old Anderson vs. Belisle failure. Not here though. It was a failure of not acquiring a better major league starter than Perez. If anything Smeltzer and Dobnak are development successes that maybe would have benefited from more time developing in the minors last year.

JW: At the time of the trade in 2018 Smeltzer was a AA reliever and finished a AA reliever. He had no innings in AAA.

RB: It was the Twins front office... not me who called up Devin Smeltzer on May 28th after 54.2 Innings with an ERA of 1.15 as a starter in AAA. It was Devin Smeltzer who did not suck after that occured. 

JW: Isn’t it possible that every inning he threw in the minors last year was key to his development and any success in the majors?

RB: I hope so and I hope every inning he threw in the majors was key to his development as well. 

JW: How many of the 14 starts in AAA do you suggest the Twins should have used for major league data rather than AAA development? Half of them?

RB: Are you asking me for an arbitrary number? I won't provide one. It's actually a condescending question. If you have to ask a question like this... you don't respect me enough to care what I type anyway. I want Smeltzer to increase his sample size to determine if his adequate major league performance is sustainable. I want Perez to decrease his sample size because it had been determined that his major league performance was not adequate.  

JW: Would that have made a difference in whatever data they can collect in the majors that they can’t collect in the minors?

RB: YES

JW: What data would be collected?

RB: Can he sustain this performance? Is he the same pitcher after 70 innings of data? Will the league adjust to him... can he adjust to those adjustments. Is he better than Martin Perez? Is he better than Randy Dobnak or Lewis Thorpe? When I say Data... I'm talking about sample size. I don't think 16 innings are enough major league data to hand him a playoff roster spot. That's what I'm saying. I'm talking about the need to increase his sample size. I'm talking about... he has pitched well through 16 innings... maybe we should let him pitch a 17th inning. 

JW: It is the same ball.

RB: It's not the same hitters. Was this statement meant to be as condescending as it seems? 

JW:  The same machines collect all of the data on his pitches.

RB: Yeah... I'm really starting to think that condescension was absolutely intended.  

JW: They have a huge database to match those pitches against similar pitches in the major leagues.

RB: The same database that didn't allow Nick Anderson a chance and the same database that kept Martin Perez in the rotation right up to the day they determined that he wouldn't get a playoff spot. 

JW: His pitches aren’t going to behave differently from the major league mound.

RB: The hitters behave differently... I assume that major league hitters are a more accurate representation of actual major league hitters than the AAA variety. Therefore more accurate information to answer the following questions

1. Is Devin Smeltzer better than Martin Perez right now.

2. Can we move Martin Perez to the bullpen? 

3. Should we give Devin Smeltzer a playoff roster spot? 

4. Do they protect Smeltzer or Gonsalves or Nick Anderson with a 40 man roster spot before the rule 5 draft. 

5. Do we have to find another free agent starting pitcher in the off season?

6. Should we find an opening day roster spot for him in 2020? 

JW: Dobnak was even further away. Development matters.

RB: From August 28th to September 14 he threw 8 innings while on the major league roster. What kind of development are we talking about here? Kyle Gibson  had to get sick and Pineda had to get suspended to get 3 actual starts for Dobnak before getting the ball for Game Two. Perez kept his job throughout. 

JW: I am with you on the give a shot to a 28 year old Anderson vs. Belisle failure.

RB: Thank You

JW: Not here though. It was a failure of not acquiring a better major league starter than Perez.

RB: I agree... it was a failure of not acquiring a better major league starter than Perez... first and foremost. It was also a failure of assuming that the performance of Perez couldn't be bettered by almost anyone? It was a failure to give important major league development innings to players to help determine who would be placed on the playoff roster, who would be utilized heavier during the playoffs. The guy they gave the innings to... was not selected for the playoffs. It will help determine the real tough 40 man roster decisions they must make ahead of the rule 5. Additional MAJOR LEAGUE development innings increasing the major league sample size would help them determine if they should sign or trade for 4 FA starters or 3 during the off-season or can they actually consider giving either of these guys an opening day roster spot. All while, hopefully pitching better than Martin Perez did to actually improve 2019 performance. Win-Win. 

JW: If anything Smeltzer and Dobnak are development successes that maybe would have benefited from more time developing in the minors last year.  

RB: If anything... Once they didn't acquire a starter at the trade deadline, the front office was fully committed to the roster they had. This means that someone from the organization has to take over the role of being better than Martin Perez. They didn't have the time to develop more in the minor leagues once they didn't make a trade. It's now showtime... Martin Perez was bad and needed to be upgraded. Kyle Gibson was fighting E Coli which they should have been aware of? And pitchers getting injured are a regular occurrence in the majors. The very second the Twins didn't acquire Stroman or Ray or Syndergaard, was the very second they should have been searching for who will fill the role that Stroman, Ray or Syndergaard would have played from our own organization. That role was be better than Martin Perez. That role was who can we count on in the playoffs. 

I have no problems opening the 5th spot up to a competition with Dobnak and Smeltzer being the front runners. I'd lean towards Dobnak in that role presently with Smeltzer starting in AAA and getting the call when someone goes down.