Jose Berrios and a History of Second Half Swoons

Well, after reading this and seeing how Berrios has fared so far this 2nd half I am! Nice analysis and write-up. As much as we need him wondering if a 10 day break would be of help to let him reset.

Because the FO failed to land a starting pitcher at the deadline, the Twins can’t afford to let Berrios miss two starts. Even with where he is now, he’s a better bet to give the team a chance to win than any of the AAA guys that have been up and down. Every game matters. The Twins can’t give two away.

I am very concerned because he is the only pitcher we have that I truly feel confidant with. Why don't they use the IL rest for him when we are in a stretch of poor teams?  I am sorry - I know why - no one else is reliable.

Short term vs mid term vs long term.    If it is felt that he can pick up some velocity by skipping a turn then I am all for it once Pineda comes back.   Odorizzi, Thorpe, Gibson, Pineda and Smeltzer.     I fear putting more effort into throwing harder is counter productive and injury causing.   People keep talking about how he is 3-8 in his last starts but aside from the Atlanta clunker he has pitched extremely well.  We are 25-25 in our last 50.   If we subtract that 3-8 we are 22-17 in games he hasn't started which tells me we would maybe be ok without him for one start.    Of course ask him to be honest about how he is feeling.    I am fine with keeping him in the rotation or giving him a break.    

Because the FO failed to land a starting pitcher at the deadline, the Twins can’t afford to let Berrios miss two starts. Even with where he is now, he’s a better bet to give the team a chance to win than any of the AAA guys that have been up and down. Every game matters. The Twins can’t give two away.

Quoted so I can like it twice.

I think if you DFA four relief pitchers, they may have given away many more than two.

Thank you for pointing this out.  I have been concerned about Berrios the last couple of years and didn't know why or have facts to back it up.  To me it just seemed like he was over-rated and really wasn't the pitcher we all thought.  I hadn't really associated his troubles with first half vs second half.

Hopefully he gets it figured out!

Rest him!!!  

What's the point of making the playoffs if your ace is a wreck?

But it's not like resting him would cost them the playoffs.  The improvement over the stretch run would likely make up for the missed starts.

Is it possible he's tipping his curveball(/slider)? In August his curveball whiff rate is down to 8%, normally at ~25%, and his chase rate is at 5%, normally at >30%. It also is worth noting that he's used his curve more against lefties than righties this month. I think he's faced more lefties than usual this month, but it's still a notable difference. It just seems like batters aren't fooled by it. Velocity of the curve is unchanged, but the spin rate is down a little.

Interesting article. Gives pause, for sure...but, I think I'm with vavo above...the biggest difference to my eyeballs is that the breaking pitch doesn't seem to be the weapon that it was. The velocity data notwithstanding, the 'mediocre' results seem to be tied more to the quality and command of the breaking ball...it not resulting in swings and misses and chases.

IMO, we're simply seeing what he is. If he was any stronger/more durable and if his stuff was much better, he'd be Cole or deGrom or Verlander...or a prime version of Kluber, Scherzer, Kershaw, or Greinke. Instead, he's just very good...but can't be counted on to frequently dominate good lineups. You'd be golden if you had more than one of him. When he's your top, though...you're probably not going to have a match-up advantage in the post-season. So far. He's just 25. But for now, you're probably going to need to rest him at some point between now and October. I'd want it to be during a stretch against the bottom of the ALC.