Is The Rotation Turning Around?

Can the Twins remain in the top 10 in ERA through the end of the season...?

It's not good etiquette to troll your own website!!!

I feel they will stay in the top 10 in ERA but that isn't exactly reaching for the brass ring. Baby steps...

Nick, I think you're underestimating the contributions Mr. Nolasco will make to team ERA. A higher number is better, right?

I would very much appreciate a regression to the mean...if Gibson loses some of his ERA success while upping his strike out numbers, then woo! If the Twins go from abysmal to mediocre (say 11th or 12th) in ERA, then DOUBLE WOO!

Gibson: K/9 is terrible, but sinkerballers aren't known to depend on the K.  K's are sexy, but W's are more important.  As long as he's getting the ground ball outs, I'm loving it.  

Hughes: Should improve.  

Pelfrey: Should not improve.  He's 2 years removed from TJ, and maybe healthy for the first time since becoming a Twin.  Maybe he's better than what we all have grown to expect out of him.

Trevor May: He's going to take his lumps just like Gibson did in his first full year in the bigs.  It sucks to see that, but that's what it could be for a while.  At least he's not a 10-year vet getting shelled. 

Nolasco:  I wish he'd disappear.  I agree with Blake.  He will KILL our team ERA.  Hopefully he can rattle off 5 straight wins so we can dump him on someone soon.

I like the direction of the staff a lot, other than Nolasco.  We could be building a consistent rotation that can keep us in ball games.  We still don't have that top of the rotation winner/horse to lean on in a playoff series.  Berrios?

I think if they can get to that 11-12 range this year, that would be huge. I mean, not only were they the worst in ERA the last few seasons, but by a significant margin. If they take nearly a run off of their SP ERA, that's very encouraging. And, with an offense that is capable of scoring runs, averaging a run less given up leads to several more wins (in theory, at least). 

 

I'm not expecting a sub-3 ERA from Gibson, though I do agree that sometimes Ks are a bit overrated. I think Pelfrey can be around 4. I think Nick wrote up a great synopsis of why Hughes should be better. 

 

I'm excited for getting Ervin Santana back. he should jump right into that 2/3 spot and more people back a spot. 

 

And, as Nick mentioned, I think guys like Rogers, Berrios and Duffey can contribute if or when needed.

Seth, who you don't mention says volumes...Nolasco. 

In the AL, the rotation is 13th in FIP and 14th in xFIP.

In MLB, the rotation is 25th in FIP, 28th in xFIP.

Both improvements.

I think we'll see an uptick in K's for Gibson; his current rate looks like the epitome of fluky. The key for him is bringing down the BBs. Despite his terrific GB ratio and ability to keep the ball in the yard, he's not going to sustain his success if he's walking 3+ guys per game. But I think it's likely that he'll up the K's a bit (probably around 5K's per 9) and trim the walks down to the 2.0-2.5 range. That'll be enough to make him a solid starter.

Hughes will be fine. I'm a little nervous that so many balls are flying out right now and hope this isn't a regression to the bad old Yankee days, but overall his peripherals are fine and adding Hicks to the OF rotation should help him out a bit too. 

May has been a bit unlucky so far, but I like his stuff. He needs a bit of rope and more turns in the rotation. He's been doing a solid job in keeping the walks down (his real problem in the minors) and can get the Ks. Being able to call on a guy like him to fill an injury/inability slot instead of turning to guys like Hernandez or some of the other clowns we've trotted out is a really big deal.

Nolasco still worries me, but if healthy he should be able to be a solid 4-5 rotation guy, and that's a vast improvement over the disaster of a year ago. He's going to be overpaid in my book, but if he's competent it's a huge improvement.

Pelfrey is the one whose success seems least sustainable to me, but he's been good so far. I'm hoping he can hold it together until Santana returns and then can get flipped to a contender for a prospect from someone who thinks he'll hold it together for the rest of the year. He's not part of the future, so I don't want him pushing May out of the rotation when Santana comes back.

The real kicker for the Twins (and something the national pundits keep forgetting when they mock our rotation) is how much growth the Twins rotation had to give between the last 2 years and basic competence. and getting to that basic competence really can get the Twins a big leap, a bigger one that most people are thinking of. 

The offense is already good. Not elite, but above average and capable. match that with a competent starting staff and things get interesting pretty quickly.

Could the Twins resign Pelfy this offseason if he keeps this up?  Interesting debate.  If they do Nolasco is gone for sure.  Though Nolasco needs to show something soon. 

The best case for this rotation is that there should be fewer games where the Twins are down 3-4 early in the game.  But this still isn't a good rotation.  Pelfrey and Gibson have 5 K/9 career rates.  This is usually a 4-4.50 ERA pitcher in the best case.  Nolasco on the other hand has never pitched as well as his stats and that was when he was healthy.  I'm not optimistic for a <4 ERA.  Mays is kind of a wild card but I wouldn't expect <4 in his first season.  Hughes should be much better than he has pitched but overall I see a lot of mediocre but at least that's an improvement from previous seasons.

I like the fact that Nolasco's spot and Berrios's spot in the rotation line up (you know, just in case....)

If fully healthy, he'll be fine as a middle of the rotation type. I'm wavering a little, but he's got too much of a track record of solid, mid-rotation success to think he's just done at 31.

I think the Nolasco signing was an attempt to make the Pelfrey signing look like a bargain....

In all seriousness, I'm seeing too many excuses from Mr. Nolasco which I think contrasts with Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey, to me, seemed like he was always out there pitching his guts out even though he stunk. I just do not get the same vibe from Ricky Nolasco.

I thought it was too early to look at stats and draw conclusions.

 

I don't trust Nolasco or Pelfrey at all. I trust Gibson and Hughes to be good. I am unsure on May.

I am using career stats.

Good plan, it's what I do too.....

Except you used one month of WAR numerous times to show that Suzuki was one of the worst catchers in baseball.  It's not what you do.

Here is the factor that is being underestimated in this conversation.  Ervin Santana will come back and likely be our best pitcher (depending on whether Hughes sharpens up a bit).  It will be a huge boost to add a pitcher that is better than anything we currently have and consequently dropping our 5th best starter.

Good thing Gardy's not here, he'd be saying how we have 8 number 1 starters.  My thought is that the relative success of Gibson and May isn't all that unexpected.  

So far, Gibson hasn't struck out many.  He hasn't had to.  I've seen him mix in enough off speed to keep hitters off balance.  I do think his K rate will go up as he learns to trust his change up more.  But as of now, he's doing fine plugging away with fastballs.

Nolasco's struggles are approaching lss at this point.  Maybe he hasn't been healthy, but for some reason, I still think he'll be ok.  Hughes is experiencing a predictable regression.  That said, he doesn't have to duplicate last year to be a solid MLB starter.

Pelfrey is the obvious choice to regress.  Results aside, it still feels like he's eking by on smoke and mirrors, oh, and double plays.  Nevertheless, he's still way better than I expected.  

If we intend to trade high and receive value in return, it would be wise to field offers on Gibson and May.  Both of these pitchers would be attractive to other teams for the same reason they are attractive to the Twins.  Obviously, either would have to bring back a haul, and I think either (especially Gibson) could.