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Edouard Julien’s 2024 season has not gone how he, the Twins, or fans expected. Sent down twice this season, his current stint on the major-league roster started Aug. 15, and the results haven’t been pretty. He’s played in just one game over the past 10 days, evoking the question: What should fans make of his usage and results, and does he still factor into the Twins' plans in 2025 and beyond?
His Journey
Julien was drafted in the 18th round in 2019. Thanks to COVID, he made his professional debut in 2021, and fairly quickly, he looked like a patented late-round success story. He crushed in the 2022 Arizona Fall League, leading the league in walks and runs while slugging .683. Two weeks into the 2023 season, he received his first call-up and was a part of a historically good corps of rookies, along with Matt Wallner and Louie Varland. Over the course of 2023, he put up a .263/.381/.459 line, good for a 136 wRC+, third among all second basemen. He had power and patience, regularly spitting on pitches outside the zone. This led to him finishing the season with some Rookie of the Year votes, while being worth 2.8 fWAR.
This isn’t to say he didn’t have his warts: his defense at second base wasn’t good (-1 OAA); he had a 31% strikeout rate, driven by in-zone whiffs; he didn’t do well against lefties. Many saw him as a future first baseman or DH, and at worst, a platoon player. Exact role aside, he appeared to be firmly within the Twins' plans in some capacity.
During the offseason, he worked on his fielding, and entering the 2024 season, he looked to have claimed second base both offensively and defensively. In April, Julien looked like he had figured it all out. He put up an .861 OPS and seemed confident at second base. Davy Andrews even wrote a song, “Edouard Julien, Are You Gonna Rule Again?”. As it turns out, it was not meant to be - at least this season.
His results since the calendar flipped to May have been sub-replacement level. Across 180 plate appearances, he has just a .525 OPS, and that’s actually buoyed by a .320 BABIP. That’s bad for a backup catcher, let alone for a middle infielder or first baseman. To make matters worse, he’s hit just one homer and isn’t barreling the ball much at all—just 5.5% of his plate appearances end that way. Looking at Julien's Savant page, there's a frightening amount of blue.
Julien is sporting an unsightly 35% K-rate. Specifically, he’s striking out looking at an unsustainable rate.
Even worse, many of those come on pitches down the heart of the plate, where he’s been worth -7 runs.
He’s swinging at 19% of pitches just outside the zone, a 5% increase since last year. Overall, he’s swinging at about 30% fewer pitches than the average player. This suggests that his feel at the plate has disappeared, which is further backed up by a 5.7% drop in his walk rate, year over year.
His defense at second has also slid once again, and on the season, he’s now worth -3 OAA at second. He’s close to unplayable right now in all parts of his game, and would benefit from a reset. The end of the season isn’t a great time for that, as he will now feel the pressure of fighting for a 26-man roster spot entering 2025.
Who’s Behind Him?
Julien is capable of playing first, second, or DH. Thinking about the Twins depth chart, second base is likely to be manned by one of Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee for the next several seasons. Luke Keaschall is all but ready for a promotion to Triple-A, and will likely join the Twins at some point in 2025. His best positions are second base or center field, further crowding the infield. Willi Castro plays a lot of infield as well. So, it’ll likely be tough for Julien to crack any of those positions.
First base is likely to be an open competition between Jose Miranda (who was in a spot much like the one Julien is in now, a year ago), Alex Kirilloff (if he is still on the roster in 2025) or Julien. But a first baseman needs to hit. There are currently real question marks surrounding all three of those players’ ability to do that well enough for the position. If there were any likelihood of the Twins spending in the offseason, signing a Carlos Santana type would probably be the path of least resistance, and would prevent the Twins from having to decide which option at first is the least suboptimal. Since spending seems unlikely, it’s anyone’s guess.
Takeaways
Look, it’s possible that after the season ends, Julien will reveal that he’s been playing hurt, as Miranda was in 2023. Maybe he spends his offseason working with Driveline to improve his swing. Or, it’s possible that the league simply adjusted to Julien, and he needs to respond with an aggressive adjustment of his own. Regardless, it’s likely that he remains in the organization, as his potential trade value is severely depressed. Assuming he does, he will probably begin the season with the Saints, and will need to hit his way back onto the roster. Even if he does that, he may have regained more value as a trade chip given his defensive (in)flexibility. It’s up to Julien to figure out what his future holds. Unfortunately, this season raised more questions than it answered.
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