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  • Giants 4, Twins 3: As Bad As It Gets?


    Steven Trefz

    The Twins came into Tuesday's matchup with the Giants looking for some home field redemption. They hit the showers unredeemed. Here's how it all went down at Target Field.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    SP: Sonny Gray: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (105 pitches, 69 strikes (66%)
    Home Runs: Byron Buxton (10), Michael A. Taylor (6)

    Top 3 WPA: Buxton (.119), Javoni Moran (.085), Griffin Jax (.048)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Jorge Lopez (-.356), Donovan Solano (-.063), Willi Castro (-.070)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs

    chart(7).png.eb21f62b43533be78f0cec5a3607547a.png

    Monday night's loss left a sour taste across Twins Territory, and left both the team and the fans eager to get redemption for a night of poor plate appearances and questionable decisions. Carlos Correa took the night off with a sore heel on Tuesday, and Trevor Larnach hit the IL with a lingering illness. Would the remaining Twins be able to stand their ground against a streaky Giants squad?

    Live by the Long Ball
    Things got off to a bang for the Twins offense, when Donavan Solano drilled an opposite field single to right with one out. After an Alex Kirilloff strike out, Byron Buxton went first-pitch hunting and did not miss, jolting a home run to deep left center to put the Twins up 2-0 early.

    Die by the Small Ball
    In the bottom of the second inning, the Twins got a lucky break on a Kyle Farmer grounder to LaMonte Wade Jr. that bounced away and led to an errant throw. Willi Castro followed with an attempted sacrifice bunt, but Alex Cobb was able to get Farmer at second base. A quick Christian Vázquez double play ball later, and the rally was snuffed out on two pitches.

    Live by the Long Ball - Part 2
    The Twins failed to manufacture runs throughout the middle innings, until Michael A. Taylor came up with two outs in the bottom of the fifth. On a 1-2 count, Taylor called for time, gathered his bearings, and then left the yard for the sixth time this year to put the Twins up 3-0.

    Sonny Skies Turn Gray in the Sixth
    Gray hadn't been dominant through the first five innings, scattering five hits across the scoreless frames. J.D. Davis worked a lead-off walk in the sixth, and Michael Conforto powered a double to the left field gap. Gray stayed in to face Mitch Haniger to eclipse the 100 pitch mark, and ended up walking him as well to load the bases.

    The mess was left to Jovani Moran to clean up, and he started out well by inducing a fly out by Casey Schmitt to short center, and then by striking out Wilmer Flores. The third out wouldn't come as easily, as control issues returned to Moran's outing, and he walked Patrick Bailey on four pitches to bring in the first Giants run.

    When Bryce Johnson entered as a pinch hitter, Rocco Baldelli went to the bullpen again. This time it was Brock Stewart's turn to face loaded bases and a pivotal moment in the game. He responded by walking Johnson on five pitches. You can't make this stuff up.

    LaMonte Wade Jr. came up next, and Stewart responded by missing badly with his first two pitches. Wade Jr. had the third best walk rate in the Majors, and things looked bleak. Pitching coach Pete Make made his way to the mound, and luckily whatever he said worked. Three strikes later, Stewart was out of the jam, and the Twins held on to their 3-2 advantage.

    Die by the Long Ball
    The threats just kept on coming for the Giants, as Thairo Estrada led off the top of the seventh with a scorching double off of Jorge Lopez. Kyle Farmer robbed J.D. Davis of another extra base hit, but Conforto struck again, and he would not be robbed as he lofted a two run homer about two inches beyond the left field wall to put the Giants ahead 4-3.

    Live and Let Die
    It's not just a catchy 007 lyric, its what Twins Territory was asking about the rest of the summer heading into the bottom of the eighth inning. Therapy sessions were being offered on Twitter, fishing rods were being readied for months of baseball-free evenings, and Twins players were beginning to plan their October vacations. Stop me if you heard this one, but another medium-level left-handed reliever dominated Kyle Garlick, Solano, and Kirilloff. 

    Buxton, Edouard Julien, and newly called-up Matt Wallner (who had already played a game today) tried to keep hope alive in the ninth. Two strikeouts later, and it was up to Wallner. Matt took one for the team on the right ankle, bringing Castro up as the winning run with two outs.

    Fade to black. Castro strikes out swinging, and the Twins find themselves just one game above the .500 mark.

    What’s Next? 
    In the third and final game of the series the Twins will send Joe Ryan and his 6-1 record, and 0.89 WHIP to the mound. The Giants will counter with Anthony DeSclafani and his 3-3 record, and 0.99 WHIP. This in when the ace rises to the top of the deck, so can Twins fans count on a win Wednesday?

    Postgame Interviews

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT  
    Jax 33 0 0 17 18 68  
    J. López 0 19 12 0 18 49  
    Sands 0 0 0 44 0 44  
    Pagán 0 0 0 23 9 32  
    De León 0 0 31 0 0 31  
    Stewart 11 5 0 0 10 26  
    Durán 0 20 0 0 0 20  
    Morán 0 9 0 0 10 19  

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    2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

    Even as bad as this has been, they still have a 2.5 game lead in the central right now. 

    one game over 500 - the worst first place team in baseball.  I think our expectations were out of the Central and looking to win a playoff game or series. 

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    Trying not to be negative but going into the season there were obvious holes (at least to me).

    1. Letting Arraez go!  Yes we got a pretty good pitcher but they pitch maybe 3 times in a 2 week span?  I believe Arraez would have helped win many games.
    2. No true DH type player
    3. Not utilizing Buxton as he should be
    4. I don't think anyone saw Correa's horrible year coming
    5. No true closer
    6. No consistent line-up.  I think that the guys would jell and there would be far less errors or dingbat plays.  Plus players would gain confidence by being an everyday players

    My frustration or anger is that we can't "have it all".   We should be able to have both a Lopez type pitcher and Arraez, a true DH and good closer.  

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    This team is starting to show it's true colors. I said it before the season started that they would be lucky to be a .500 team. Most of the nay sayers to my beliefs shot me down. Where are they now? We've lost 2 starting pitchers (Mahle and Maeda) and 2 more (Gray and PLopez) are starting to look very average. The bullpen is questionable outside of Duran. JLopez has 1/2 a season of good baseball in his career and the FO thought he was the answer... wrong. Thielbar has been an unexpected surprise but he's 36 years old and his days are numbered. Jax has always been hit or miss and for some reason they think he should always be good while they ignore all of the times he's been bad. Who else are they relying on? Moran? Pagan? Sands? Now Stewart, a new addition to the pen is used before Duran. Sorry, but anyway you look at it, you use your best pitcher when the game is on the line and Rocco bird-brained it again. Why is Duran being used the least of any bullpen pitcher when he's your best? I'll tell you why... poor managing. Saving a guy for a situation that never comes is... poor managing. Is anyone missing Arraez and his .371 BA and .424 OBP ??? With the ever absent Polanco this year Mr. Batting Champ would sure look good playing 2nd base and hitting anywhere in Rocco's ever changing lineup. Is having Kirilloff play in RF and Gallo at 1B really better than the other way around or is Rocco just trying to show he can play anyone anywhere anytime? I truely think he believes moving players to different spots on the field and in the lineup is "Good" managing when instead it creates inconsistancy, confusion and poor play. I can't envision Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti and the gang of WS Champs coming to the ball park and not knowing if they WOULD be playing, WHERE they'd be playing and WHEN they would be batting, but this new way of baseball is sooooo much better now having players able to play multiple positions, you know, in case of injuries and guys struggling to make contact. Rocco loves the cut and paste, drop and drag feature on his lineup setting laptop. LOL!

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    Any one who expects help from the Twins front office is going to be disappointed since they decided to extend Rocco.  Is the front office really that bad at looking at Rocco's record.  Rocco has no clue on how to handle pitchers, had losing record in 1 run games last year and had losing record in extra inning games. The Twins will be lucky to have a winning record by the end of May and the front office decides to extend Rocco.  No other team is going to hire Rocco away from the Twins unless some high school team needs a coach. 

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    2 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

    but if your pitchers can't or won't throw strikes, that's like some kind of emotional hangup. I say that because if you remove the game pressure, pretty much all these guys can throw strike after strike. 

    This. It's the yips. It continues to be the yips. This team expects to lose. You can see it in their body language. This is absolutely a coaching/training issue. Baldelli looks like a scolded dog. As a player, how can you rally behind leadership like that?

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    We've seen this many times over the past 2-3years.  Poor play, poor hitting, untimely bullpen blowup.  A very boring manager leading a very boring and listless team.  But they extend him.  Expect much more of the same for the next few seasons.

     

    And people say it's OK because they are in first place?  You can be in first place but that doesn't make you a first place team.  This is a boring team playing boring vaseball.  Yawn!!

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    25 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

    Any one who expects help from the Twins front office is going to be disappointed since they decided to extend Rocco. 

    Rocco is doing exactly what the front office asks him to do. Lineups, handling pitchers, etc.

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    10 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

    12 outs needed to be made. Say duran gets the 6th and maybe 7th. Lopez and (?) are going to have to get the last 6 outs. Lopez and jax have been bad for a month. Stewart has been good but playing high above his career average. Moran is hit/miss. The weaker guys (aka everyone except duran) are going to have to pitch. You don’t trust them in the 6/7 but you trust them in 8/9? Moran was brought in to face 6-7-8 batters. If they’re going to blow the lead, I’d heck of a lot rather blow it before the 8th inning. That way you could maybe run your strategy a bit differently than if you fall behind in the 9th. Plus, I believe it’s a mental letdown to blow a 9th inning lead. Rarely do I see the home team score in the bottom after blowing a 9th inning lead. Plus I like duran for a possible 10th inning with the manfred rule, being a high strikeout guy.

    We’re just arguing about chair placement on the titanic at the end of the day. You can’t have one trustworthy guy in the bullpen. It’s just never going to work. It looked good early on with thielbar and lopez, but it’s reverted to form. Can’t have a bullpen with one solid reliever.

    This!

    they also need to hit more. They won’t win many games scoring only 3 runs

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    I'm not as worried about the bullpen. Yes... it can be improved and I hope it is improved some way some how.

    It's the offense that has my full concern and it's the offense that is going to almost demand perfection out of the bullpen because they are not creating moments for the bullpen to breath easy for a game or two.  

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    1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

    one game over 500 - the worst first place team in baseball.  I think our expectations were out of the Central and looking to win a playoff game or series. 

    I hope I'm wrong but wait one more game and we might be alittle worse , but the way the lineup plays I'd bet the farm we will be 500 after today's game  ...

    I hope the ink hasn't dried on Rocco's contract and FO can say , let's see how the season plays out before we extend you ....

    This was a bad move and motivates no one  ...

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    As I continue to research the lyrical stylings of 007, I think the moral of the story is that when the Twins realize they still are alive and got the dog in them somewhere, they can walk away from games like last night and not let it carry over into today.

    I still have the team at 96 wins and an AL Central title. And a playoff victory.

    Here's to the first game of the rest of our Twins fan lives!

    (author was legally obligated to pull the drain on the cesspool he himself started filling...)

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    1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

    Trying not to be negative but going into the season there were obvious holes (at least to me).

    1. Letting Arraez go!  Yes we got a pretty good pitcher but they pitch maybe 3 times in a 2 week span?  I believe Arraez would have helped win many games.
    2. No true DH type player
    3. Not utilizing Buxton as he should be
    4. I don't think anyone saw Correa's horrible year coming
    5. No true closer
    6. No consistent line-up.  I think that the guys would jell and there would be far less errors or dingbat plays.  Plus players would gain confidence by being an everyday players

    My frustration or anger is that we can't "have it all".   We should be able to have both a Lopez type pitcher and Arraez, a true DH and good closer.  

    1) while they miss having more hitters, this rotation is awesome and P. Lopez has contributed to winning far more games than Arraez would have. Arraez WPA season to date .33, Lopez .70. Lopez has contributed twice as much to win expectancy outcomes as Arraez has.

    2/3 - Buxton is still hurt. Is Buxton Perma-DH?

    4 - agreed, he likely won’t stay this bad all year.

    5 - Duran is the “true closer” and an elite reliever in the MLB. If he’s not good enough, there likely isn’t a reliever good enough for you. the bullpen is a problem, issue is no depth and they haven’t developed or signed depth. 3 reliable relievers out of 8 is not good.

    6 - lineup inconsistency, can you provide data to back this up? Do hitters that hit in the same spot in the lineup produce better results?

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    "We are going through a difficult period of time with, obviously, some health issues."  -- Rocco

    Oh, that darn injury bug.  I guess pneumonia is an injury to the lungs.

    I'm still going with my pre-season prognostication of 93 wins, barring injury.  If it's valid for them, it's valid for me.  Looks like I need to update my terminology though.  Barring health issues.

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    7 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    1) while they miss having more hitters, this rotation is awesome and P. Lopez has contributed to winning far more games than Arraez would have. Arraez WPA season to date .33, Lopez .70. Lopez has contributed twice as much to win expectancy outcomes as Arraez has.

     

    WPA is 100 percent context driven and a terrible way to determine how much impact a given player would have had on another team. Meaningless, even. 

    Arraez has 184 PAs of .424 OBP. That would be valuable to any offense, including the Twins.

    Lopez has given the Twins 60 IP of 111 OPS+ starting pitching. Also valuable. 

    It's fair to both recognize both the value AND cost of the Lopez trade. There's no need to try to justify the trade by minimizing Arraez. He's been good. Really good. Better than every Twin except Kirilloff. 

     

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    8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    It's fair to both recognize both the value AND cost of the Lopez trade. There's no need to try to justify the trade by minimizing Arraez. He's been good. Really good. Better than every Twin except Kirilloff. 

    I’m sure at this point Rocco would love to have Arraez back.

    He could platoon him with Solano.

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    5 hours ago, bighat said:

    Blaming this on the pitching staff? The pitching staff

    That's like blaming global warming on someone who lights a candle. The problem with this team is that they cannot hit. This is a bad hitting team. The pitching has been fine. 

    Wish I could click a bigger "thumbs up."

    The pitching was not above reproach, but they held the opponent to 4 runs. That should be a win.

    MLB average for offense is 4.57 runs per game. It took below mlb-average offense to blow this game.

    The problem is again the offense not pulling its weight. 

     

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    40 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    "We are going through a difficult period of time with, obviously, some health issues."  -- Rocco

    Oh, that darn injury bug.  I guess pneumonia is an injury to the lungs.

    I'm still going with my pre-season prognostication of 93 wins, barring injury.  If it's valid for them, it's valid for me.  Looks like I need to update my terminology though.  Barring health issues.

    I contend that injuries could be the most viable path to improving this team. 

    Yeah... I know... it absolutely may not but at this point... it can't be discounted as a way to improve. 

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    27 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

    I’m sure at this point Rocco would love to have Arraez back.

    He could platoon him with Solano.

    On a scale of 1 to 10. That's 10 funny. 

    Sadly... quite possibly true... but sadly funny. 

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    1 hour ago, Steven Trefz said:

    As I continue to research the lyrical stylings of 007, I think the moral of the story is that when the Twins realize they still are alive and got the dog in them somewhere, they can walk away from games like last night and not let it carry over into today.

    I still have the team at 96 wins and an AL Central title. And a playoff victory.

    Here's to the first game of the rest of our Twins fan lives!

    (author was legally obligated to pull the drain on the cesspool he himself started filling...)

    WOW 96 wins. Then you woke up from your dream!

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    12 hours ago, jkcarew said:

    The problem with the unwillingness to move him up is that you open yourself to a couple of risks…

    1) you end up without a save opportunity and pitch him in low leverage…or…

    2) you end up without a save situation and don’t pitch him at all

    And that’s what’s been happening…Duran has fewer innings and fewer batters faced than (more than) half the bullpen. Rocco has pitched his best pitcher less than his other pitchers…all while the club has been stacking up losses. He wants to stick with his plans/wishes/hopes regardless of how events actually unfold. It’s a pattern.

    Having said all that, the offense is the main problem.

    The noffense. Yes. If we put more runs on the board our bullpen woes would seem far less dramatic. It would take pressure off of the bullpen.

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    1 hour ago, Steven Trefz said:

    As I continue to research the lyrical stylings of 007, I think the moral of the story is that when the Twins realize they still are alive and got the dog in them somewhere, they can walk away from games like last night and not let it carry over into today.

    I still have the team at 96 wins and an AL Central title. And a playoff victory.

    Here's to the first game of the rest of our Twins fan lives!

    (author was legally obligated to pull the drain on the cesspool he himself started filling...)

    96 wins?! Lol the twins would have to go 71-42 the rest of the way! They can’t win more than 2-3 games in a row! Good luck!

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    2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

    This in when the ace rises to the top of the deck, so can Twins fans count on a win Wednesday?

    The starting pitching, for the most part, has not been the problem this season. 

    This is when the ace rises to pitch 8 scoreless and watch the team fall in a 1-0 loss.

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    44 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    1) while they miss having more hitters, this rotation is awesome and P. Lopez has contributed to winning far more games than Arraez would have. Arraez WPA season to date .33, Lopez .70. Lopez has contributed twice as much to win expectancy outcomes as Arraez has.

    2/3 - Buxton is still hurt. Is Buxton Perma-DH?

    4 - agreed, he likely won’t stay this bad all year.

    5 - Duran is the “true closer” and an elite reliever in the MLB. If he’s not good enough, there likely isn’t a reliever good enough for you. the bullpen is a problem, issue is no depth and they haven’t developed or signed depth. 3 reliable relievers out of 8 is not good.

    6 - lineup inconsistency, can you provide data to back this up? Do hitters that hit in the same spot in the lineup produce better results?

    The rotation is very good, not sure I would go to awesome but very good for the first time in a long time.

    If the Twins had Arraez on base would that not produce more runs which this team is truly lacking.  He does have to have someone to drive him in.  Given the inning his singles, double and triples would drive in runs.

    The whole Buxton situation IMO sucks!  Such high expectations but now they are way to cautious with him (IMO).

    Correa better step it up and SOON!  Not just for one game either

    Duran is rated #16, but to his credit he hasn't had much to save.

    Not the spot they hit but it would be nice to have everyday players.  In the last 4 games they have had 14 players.  Top are a bit more consistent.  I guess I am living in the good old day when you had a team.  The new baseball world of statistics is not for me

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    2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    1) while they miss having more hitters, this rotation is awesome and P. Lopez has contributed to winning far more games than Arraez would have. Arraez WPA season to date .33, Lopez .70. Lopez has contributed twice as much to win expectancy outcomes as Arraez has.

    Losing teams generate less WPA than winning teams. Be careful you aren't measuring the teammates performance.

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