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Fangraphs currently has the Twins playoff odds at 80.6%. They are tied with Cleveland with the third-highest chances of any team in the American League to win the World Series. Those odds are better than what it feels like to many fans, considering the Twins complete inactivity at the trade deadline. Savvy moves were made by their competitors. Finally, the fact remains that the Twins just haven’t been able to pick up ground on the Guardians or Royals over the past couple months despite generally good play.
If the Twins hope to play meaningful games in October, they will need four things to break their way: health of the team, starting pitching staying consistent, head-to-head matchups against the Guardians and Royals, and one of Jhoan Duran or Brock Stewart to return to peak form. Let’s dig into each of these needs.
Health
The Twins have no shortage of players who have been snakebit throughout their careers. In the past four seasons, Royce Lewis has suffered two torn ACLs and four separate soft tissue injuries that caused him to lose time. Byron Buxton has played more than 100 games exactly once in his 10-year career (although he is on track to well-exceed that mark this season). Carlos Correa has been shelved for the past three weeks while dealing with his second bout of plantar fasciitis. And Jose Miranda, after losing most of the 2023 season to a shoulder injury and the resulting ineffectiveness that went along with that, has spent time on the IL and returned, only to be hit in the head by a pitch almost immediately.
These are just the injuries dealt to our keystone hitters. Take into account role players like Anthony DeSclafani and Daniel Duarte who won’t throw a pitch for the Twins this season, Kyle Farmer dealing with a season-long injury, and Alex Kirilloff seeking a second opinion on his back injury, and it’s clear that the Twins can’t withstand many more injuries as the ready-now depth is all playing for the parent club already.
Starting pitching
In October, should the Twins make it there, they will need three playoff-caliber starters. They (likely) have them in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. However, to MAKE it to October, they will also need strong production out of their other starters while their top-three continue to pitch well.
Currently, the Twins are relying on two rookies, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa, with Zebby Matthews waiting in the wings. That’s threading a needle and hoping against regression.
Throughout the 2024 season, Twins fans have watched a few storylines play out among the starting pitchers.
Pablo Lopez had a rough first half, but is rounding into form. He has been dominant over his past seven starts but will need to be consistent every fifth day. The key appears to be execution of his sweeper.
Joe Ryan has a track record of starting a season strong, then fading down the stretch. He has been much more consistent than in years past, but has two months to go. Can he keep it up without wearing down?
Bailey Ober has historically been treated with kid gloves due to his injury history. This season has been a different story. Outside his games against the Royals, Ober has been consistent and great. Nick Nelson has a great writeup of Ober's changes here. Per The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman, Ober has the second-best career ERA of any Twins starting pitcher going back to 1980, behind Johan Santana. As Ober approaches his career-high in innings, will he be able to keep it up? If so, he might be special.
Most evaluators have Simeon Woods Richardson as having a back-of-the-rotation arm upside. However, through his first 18 starts, he has put up a 3.74 with a 4.33 xFIP. That’s still solid for a #4 or good #5 starter, but the team might need more than that from him. Will he regress, or can he give the Twins eight more good starts?
David Festa began the season as the likely #8 starter. He has been thrust into duty earlier than expected due to injuries to DeSclafani and Paddack, and due to Louis Varland’s ineffectiveness this season. Festa began his major-league career with two terrible starts and was sent down, but has looked much better in his second stint with the big league club. Can the Slim Reaper continue to develop in real-time? If not, is Zebby ready?
The Twins had better hope the starting pitching staff can keep it up.
Head to head games against the Guardians and RoyalsAt the trade deadline, both the Guardians and the Royals did what their fan bases expected - they made moves to improve their rosters, with the intention of making deep playoff runs. The Twins, famously, did nothing. That fact puts the Twins at a disadvantage compared to their AL Central foes.
Over the past two months, the Twins place in the AL Central standings has been static, despite playing good baseball over that stretch, and winning nine of their past ten series’. Twins fans have been waiting for the Guardians or Royals to falter, but they haven’t. Now, the competition will be fiercer as both teams are better than they were a week ago.
Over the final 45 games of the season, we play the Guardians eight times and the Royals six times. While these games will be hard-fought (maybe don’t start Ober against the Royals?), our path to the playoffs becomes much more straightforward if we can play .600 baseball or better against both of them. Playing .750 would be better. Is that realistic?
Duran OR Stewart returning to peak form
A good, playoff-caliber team needs at least two shutdown options at the back of the bullpen. This allows for moderating workloads and protecting a late lead in a must-win game. So far this season, Griffin Jax has been our only consistent back-of-the-bullpen pitcher. To make it to October, the Twins will need one of Jhoan Duran or Brock Stewart to return to their peak form.
In 2024, Jhoan Duran’s stuff is clearly diminished, and his pitches have all lost significant velocity compared to career norms. Is this tied to the injury he suffered prior to spring training? Is it due to a mechanical issue? Is this a case of one of the best relievers in baseball burning bright and declining early? Hopefully the Twins training staff has a sense of which of these is the root cause, and has an idea of how to help.
Brock Stewart has dealt with injuries all throughout his career, and that trend has continued as he's on the shelf with a shoulder strain. When healthy, he has some of the most dominant stuff in our system. Can he get healthy down the stretch?
If either pitcher returns to form, with Jorge Alcala, (hopefully) Justin Topa, and Cole Sands behind them in setup roles, the bullpen should be playoff-caliber. If neither pitcher can elevate once again, then our best option may be to reintroduce Louie Varland to the bullpen and hope for the best.
What do you think? Are the Twins likely to achieve most or all of these keys? Will this be enough? Comment below to start the discussion!
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