Extension Time?

I feel that a Gibson extension might remind us of the Hughes extension. Coming off a career year is not the best time to try to get a good value extension, but running out of time. I would be against it unless its crazy team friendly. If he does great, offer the QO.

I don't think Buxton extends coming off of a bad season and some ill will with the FO at this point. I believe Sano will walk and test the waters regardless. Rosario I'd like to see a 4 year deal. That would fix our costs and buy out his year 30 season, I wouldn't go further with him. Gibson, Yes, a 3 year with an option. W/o him we have a very thin rotation looking at next year.

Berrios would be hard to guess. I'd guess he won't sign cheap. It would need to be an overpay of sorts.

If I were the Twins GM, Berrios, Buxton, and Sano would be my priorities. I don’t see extensions for Rosario or Gibson.

At this point, Gibson has too few good years left. If he’d sign a 2-year deal? Done. For Rosario, too many cheap replacement options. Cave, Kiriloff, etc.

Buxton, even if he has a .725 OPS is a huge defender and threat on the bases.

Sano is a power bat who just needs to stay healthy and looks good heading in to 2019. He looks exactly like the type of player the Twins of the past would’ve spent 10 years developing, then let wall for nothing, then becomes and all-star/ future HoFer.

Berrios threw 202 strikeouts last season in fewer than 200 innings. He’s not Johan Santana, but he’s good. With a chance to be really good. He’s a foundation to build this rotation on. Extend him.

Sign 'em all to incentive-heavy contracts that guarantee them a decent salary/lifestyle for years to come even if they get hurt during trainings and games, provides an average payout if they perform at an average level, AND overpays them a little if they perform exceptionally well.

Why not structure salaries that are mutually beneficial?

I'm not sure if this spring is the time, but Berrios is the player that I want to stay a Twin more than any other right now.  He's shown he can be dominate, and he's just starting to mature.  As the seasons accumulate, the reoccurring issues with nerves, self-inflicted pressure and wide eyes on the big stage will become non-issues.  He'll have been-there-done-that more and more.  What I don't think will go away is his desire to compete and commitment to be the best he can be?  His routines for conditioning are well-documented. He's less of an injury risk.  Even if he did sustain and injury, I'm certain he would be well-equipped for rehab, and he would just set another goal of coming back stronger than he went out (or something along those lines).  

Outside of being a great athlete and player, my impression is that he is also a great person.  The Twins would be well-advised to have him as one of the major faces of this franchise.  He'd be a good role model as well for teaching youth about commitment, conditioning and setting goals.

I'd overpay.  Sign him up!!!

EDIT:

Also, this Kyle Freeland extension exercise piece is a good read to get a ballpark on numbers.  I don't think Berrios is at the same level yet, but it's at least food for thought on a comp.

I’m all for Berrios being a Twins lifer. Rosario is a nice candidate for a big payday. Polanco has a good start going, let’s wait and see if it’s the PEDs or if he’s for real.

HUGE no on Buxton and Sano. These guys were demoted to the minors last year, and for good reason. Kepler is decidedly average and those aren’t the guys you give money. Gibson? I don’t know, I’m not a fan. I saw up thread someone compared an extension for him to the Hughes extension, and I’d have to agree with that.

If they don't extend or QO Gibson, who are the pitchers? It's not like they actively tried out guys last fall.....

Well we do know the pitchers they won't go after, too old, too expensive, injury prone, ones that would require trading prospects, in their prime but too expensive. I am sure I might have missed a few.

Berrios for sure, maybe Rosario as well, but don’t count out a Kepler extension because a cheap deal now, could be huge bargain for us later. Regardless of his potential, perhaps he and his agents will decide that Kepler betting on himself may not be the safest business move. Think about it, Kepler is at a crossroads right now, why not secure your future now.

Sign 'em all to incentive-heavy contracts that guarantee them a decent salary/lifestyle for years to come even if they get hurt during trainings and games, provides an average payout if they perform at an average level, AND overpays them a little if they perform exceptionally well.

 

Why not structure salaries that are mutually beneficial?

This is not allowed under the current CBA. Incentives for playing time is allowed. Performance based incentives are not allowed, aside from bonuses for awards.

A player that believes in themself is not going to take a team friendly contract when there is getting more and more money in arbitration. Why should Rosario, Sanyo or Berrios take a deal? Now if you see something there more than the player produced like Dozier you can get a bargain. Kepler might fit that

I'd wait to see another year of Buxton and Berrios. Rosario I think is a contender.

Sano is the most likely to ask for a ridiculous paycheck later, so I'd at least gauge interest in buying out 1-3 years now.

But there's really no need with any player to lock them up before they enter arb years.

I think Berrios would have to be open to an extension . . . the injury risk for pitchers is just too high to hold out if a reasonable offer is on the table. He would definitely be my #1 target.

Beyond him, it gets a lot dicier. I'd probably try to extend Gibson, but it's not worth doing if the price is basically the same as what it would be in free agency. With the positions players, there are major question marks with all of them . . . the 2019 season will provide additional clarity on where it would make sense to invest.

Besides the NFL's no-guaranteed contracts, baseball owners have it made. Post-signing bonuses, they pay the majority of their minor league "assets" that infamous minor league salary.  To top that off now, the market over the past 2 years has been extremely slow and owner friendly at that.  Also, granted, Buxton wasn't performing, but they robbed him of free-agency by another year, which is HUGE in baseball ages.  The fact that Jimmy P. is completely pocketing the no-Mauer era is probably piquing this frustration.

Sorry, couldn't make the Twins Daily Gala so I couldn't buzzingly voice my frustrations.  The podcast made it sound like a good time.  I'd love to hear Cuddy's story.

Bottom line, ownership gets richer and us fans have to annually pay more and more to watch mediocrity at Target Field.

I'm sorry, I blacked out.  What did I say?

 . . the 2019 season will provide additional clarity on where it would make sense to invest.

And if the performance isn't there does that mean a 50 mil payroll in 2020?

I’m all for Berrios being a Twins lifer. Rosario is a nice candidate for a big payday. Polanco has a good start going, let’s wait and see if it’s the PEDs or if he’s for real.
HUGE no on Buxton and Sano. These guys were demoted to the minors last year, and for good reason. Kepler is decidedly average and those aren’t the guys you give money. Gibson? I don’t know, I’m not a fan. I saw up thread someone compared an extension for him to the Hughes extension, and I’d have to agree with that.

Precisely what I think on all points.

Are there better free agents available?

Is the most important question to ask?

The real question needs to be: "do we invest in these guys long term?"

As of right now, I am only interested in extending Berrios and Rosario.  The others need to show me more.  

If it were my team, I would say to Berrios and Rosario and Polanco that they figure in loooooong term. I''d extend them 4 years with increasing pay. I would project a best case scenario and buy in.  That sends a message down the line.

I'd say to Gibby, "Look you have proven yourself. Stay with us for 4 more years at market. And stay cool. Sorry about that arbitration thing."

Then I'd say to Buck and Miggie, "Look guys, everyone says you  have something to prove. But I am betting on you doing that. We have a 4 year window here. You are still young. Sign for 4 more yrears, and make good. Then go FA if you want to. By then you will have security and a track record for the big payday." 

I would extend Rogers for, you guessed it, 4 years. Then I'd look around for anyone else that wants to extend for 4 years. Maybe Nick, Tom, Seth... what do ya say guys?  

And for God's sake, give Jake Reed a chance. He was lights out at the end of last year. 

If we decide to extend Kepler we should model his deal after the D-back’s extension of Ketel Marte in 2018.

The Twins have been paying Buxton major league salary to be one of the worst hitters in baseball! Also he’s been on the DL way to much which used up MLB time and the Twins have to eat it! I don’t think the Twins have treated him unfairly. Start producing and EARN a spot on the roster. At this point he hasn’t earned anything.

That was in reply to a post about spending free agent money next year to get pitching..... If they don't sign Gibson, who are the pitchers next year?

Berrios, Mejia, Gonzo, Romero, Stewart, Littell, DeJong, Thorpe. It’s true, not a lot of mlb innings there. It’s not like Gibson or Odor are irreplaceable, or can’t be upgraded through FA or trade next offseason.

Berrios, Mejia, Gonzo, Romero, Stewart, Littell, DeJong, Thorpe. It’s true, not a lot of mlb innings there. It’s not like Gibson or Odor are irreplaceable, or can’t be upgraded through FA or trade next offseason.

Gibson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in the American league the last 1 1/2, that isn't irreplaceable?

Presently the only one in this lot that makes obvious sense is Gibson. I would love to get Berrios, but if he takes another step forward this year his value would sky rocket, so I see his agent advising him to wait.  But injury risk can be a little scary.  As far as our fielders, probably only Rosario is trustable at this point.  

Gibson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in the American league the last 1 1/2, that isn't irreplaceable?

We’re just gonna have to disagree on that.

Berrios and Gibson for sure need an extention. Rosario deserves one too. I want to say Sano and Buxton but the reality is they need to earn it first or sign below market value deal which they shouldnt. Unless Kepler breaks out he will be replaced pretty soon here. Taylor Rogers could get an extention. May is a curoius case. Maybe a 2 year extention with an option.