BREAKING: Twins Finalizing an Extension with Star Pitcher Pablo Lopez

Jocko87 · April 18, 2023

16 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I’m so glad you brought up Darvish and Wheeler 🙂 who cost only money, without having to factor in the value of Luis Arraez, both Arraez’s salary and his value at the plate over his replacement. And just overall value to the lineup. So there are hidden costs there. Either way, I think this Lopez deal will be a game changer!

Even players that only cost money have hidden costs. Now that money can't be used to sign someone else that might fall in your lap. As for Arreaz, its the relative value that matters most. In the Twins org he has much less value than the Marlins

Beast · April 18, 2023

Phenomenal deal.

ashbury · April 18, 2023

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I’m sure it’s going to happen, but when does this go from ‘finalizing’ to ‘finalized’? 🙂

Ask Carlos Correa. He can probably share some insights into the process.

bunsen82 · April 18, 2023

11 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I was done with them because they had missed on every significant free agent at the time. Not most of them, all of them. Only through the completely unexpected absurdity of the Correa signing were they able to get back on track. It wasn't an emotional response, it was a response to "you have $50m to spend and literally no one worth spending it on".

They get, at best, partial credit for Correa. Most of their other moves were good.

And let's not pretend that this was the first offseason that looked dire. The offseason before that was... less than spectacular if I'm being generous. Some might have even called it "absolutely awful". They went out and got Correa and were sunk once again by bad pitching signings, a recurring theme of their administration.

I wasn't looking at any single move, I was looking at their entire body of work. Which, at best, has been mixed.

Then after 3-4 moves they have completely moved the needle? Correa fell into their laps, it was an odd journey. However the Twins remained available, they were willing to take the chance but they also worked from a position of leverage to get a better deal than they were originally offering. The twins keep offering team friendly contracts. Buxton and now López have accepted, Berrios did not. Some players will work with you, some won’t. That doesn’t negate the value their moves tend to improve the team. You can’t always hit the big deal you need a partner whether a player or team willing to work with you. Things have lined up pretty well this year.

Major League Ready · April 18, 2023

I am not buying this is a Joe Pohlad driven change in organization philosophy. Nothing changed. They were able to sign a great SP while only committing to three additional years. This is an entirely different situation than Jose Berrios. Let’s also not forget that they signed Buxton two years ago and Donaldson 3 years ago.

Brock Beauchamp · April 18, 2023

Just now, bunsen82 said:

Then after 3-4 moves they have completely moved the needle? Correa fell into their laps, it was an odd journey. However the Twins remained available, they were willing to take the chance but they also worked from a position of leverage to get a better deal than they were originally offering. The twins keep offering team friendly contracts. Buxton and now López have accepted, Berrios did not. Some players will work with you, some won’t. That doesn’t negate the value their moves tend to improve the team. You can’t always hit the big deal you need a partner whether a player or team willing to work with you. Things have lined up pretty well this year.

Yeah, the last several moves changed everything... but to the front office's defense, they started altering some of their approaches late in the previous offseason. They stopped pursuing bad pitchers and instead pursued pitchers with injury concerns... and that didn't work out much better. But it was different.

And it was a lot of the smaller moves that I really liked late in the offseason. I've been clamoring for a right-handed, glove-first fourth outfielder for... oh, about four years now. They finally went and got one. Kyle Farmer ended up being a much better move once Correa was signed. Solano again addressed right-handed concerns they had going into the season.

For the first time, it felt like the front office was building a team instead of players that were signed because they were a "good deal", not because they were actually good or fit well within the team. They stopped signing flat-out bad pitchers on one-year deals.

But all of this comes with issues, too. Their free agent track record is still quite bad. Their vaunted pitching pipeline looks better but still hasn't materialized. The one area I feel this team has done well is in trades and even that history is littered with more than a few clunkers.

I'm still unsure of this front office but I'm far more bullish on them today than I was four months ago because they've stopped doing some of the things that drove me batty from 2018-2021.

MABB1959 · April 18, 2023

So far so AWESOME. So sad to lose Arrazz with a proven track record which could someday be greatness! I am glad the Twins seem to be realizing they need to pay for pitching instead of counting on their prospects.

I need to try not to get too excited yet to avoid huge disappointment later.

HrbieFan · April 18, 2023

22 hours ago, roger said:

Agree with Gray, DJL44. Not so certain about Mahle. He is going to have to pitch a lot better than his last start. In any case, they now will have Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober and Varland for multiple years. That's five. Agree that they will try to keep at least one of the three veterans for next year.

Wonder how Maeda likes MN and if he makes sense on an incentive laden deal. Maeda hasn't made that much coin in the US, so he might want to get paid

IndianaTwin · April 18, 2023

22 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, all of this is true but they almost fell into the Correa deal through the weirdest situation I've seen in free agency. It definitely worked out for them but I also can't give them full credit for it.

And the entire offseason really hinged around that move that was half patience, half dumb luck.

I'd have a bit of a different take on your last sentence. Targeting Correa was obviously a major part of their plan, but even if you took out that move and left everything the same, it still would have provided a pretty solid team. The pitching would still be excellent. They would still be pretty deep. The Farmer injury would have a greater impact on their fortunes than it's likely to have now, though having Correa's money available would have still given them time to come up with a different creative solution at shortstop. Said another way, signing or not signing Correa didn't have any real effect on their ability to sign Solano or Gallo or to trade for Lopez, etc. They had already signed Vasquez, for example.

Also, I think people are overstating the amount of "luck" involved in the Correa signing.

One could actually say that the Twins made Correa the best offer. The Giants offered a bazillion, WITH A CONTINGENCY. The Mets offered a little less than a bazillion, WITH A CONTINGENCY. The Twins offered a little less than a little less a bazillion, but WITH NO CONTINGENCY. Think of the house purchases you've heard of and the number of times they've fallen through because of contingencies. Offering without a contingency ("as is") can be worth a lot.

I'd agree that it was the weirdest free agent situation we've seen. It's true that Correa gave an okay to accept the contingency, but really what the Giants were saying was "Bring us a clean bill of health and we'll give you a bazillion bucks," and Correa wasn't able to do that according to the Giants' definition of "clean bill of health." Similarly the Mets.

As those were happening, the Twins were indeed showing patience, and I think the patience had much more to do with the outcome than luck did. And certainly not dumb luck. I'd concur with those saying variations of "the harder I work, the luckier I get" or that "luck is the residue of design," etc.

Brock Beauchamp · April 18, 2023

22 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'd have a bit of a different take on your last sentence. Targeting Correa was obviously a major part of their plan, but even if you took out that move and left everything the same, it still would have provided a pretty solid team. The pitching would still be excellent. They would still be pretty deep. The Farmer injury would have a greater impact on their fortunes than it's likely to have now, though having Correa's money available would have still given them time to come up with a different creative solution at shortstop. Said another way, signing or not signing Correa didn't have any real effect on their ability to sign Solano or Gallo or to trade for Lopez, etc. They had already signed Vasquez, for example.

Also, I think people are overstating the amount of "luck" involved in the Correa signing.

One could actually say that the Twins made Correa the best offer. The Giants offered a bazillion, WITH A CONTINGENCY. The Mets offered a little less than a bazillion, WITH A CONTINGENCY. The Twins offered a little less than a little less a bazillion, but WITH NO CONTINGENCY. Think of the house purchases you've heard of and the number of times they've fallen through because of contingencies. Offering without a contingency ("as is") can be worth a lot.

I'd agree that it was the weirdest free agent situation we've seen. It's true that Correa gave an okay to accept the contingency, but really what the Giants were saying was "Bring us a clean bill of health and we'll give you a bazillion bucks," and Correa wasn't able to do that according to the Giants' definition of "clean bill of health." Similarly the Mets.

As those we're happening, the Twins were indeed showing patience, and I think the patience had much more to do with the outcome than luck did. And certainly not dumb luck. I'd concur with those saying variations of "the harder I work, the luckier I get" or that "luck is the residue of design," etc.

I agree with a lot of this, we just differ on how much the offseason pivoted once Correa was signed. The Twins have rather limited trade options. Their farm system isn't great after they depleted it last deadline. They didn't have many expendable assets on the MLB team. They had a lot of money but nowhere good left to spend it.

IndianaTwin · April 18, 2023

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, the last several moves changed everything... but to the front office's defense, they started altering some of their approaches late in the previous offseason. They stopped pursuing bad pitchers and instead pursued pitchers with injury concerns... and that didn't work out much better. But it was different.

And it was a lot of the smaller moves that I really liked late in the offseason. I've been clamoring for a right-handed, glove-first fourth outfielder for... oh, about four years now. They finally went and got one. Kyle Farmer ended up being a much better move once Correa was signed. Solano again addressed right-handed concerns they had going into the season.

For the first time, it felt like the front office was building a team instead of players that were signed because they were a "good deal", not because they were actually good or fit well within the team. They stopped signing flat-out bad pitchers on one-year deals.

But all of this comes with issues, too. Their free agent track record is still quite bad. Their vaunted pitching pipeline looks better but still hasn't materialized. The one area I feel this team has done well is in trades and even that history is littered with more than a few clunkers.

I'm still unsure of this front office but I'm far more bullish on them today than I was four months ago because they've stopped doing some of the things that drove me batty from 2018-2021.

Brock, you may be thinking that I think you're nuts, because I've responded to a few of your posts. I don't -- I think we generally agree on a lot here. I'm just offering a slightly different read on some things.

The first one isn't really directed at you, but at a general theme I've felt on TD and that maybe comes through a bit in the disappointment in the previous offseason. You didn't mention 2020, but a lot of folks on TD have been unwilling to accept validity on that season because of the shortened season ("Maeda was great, but it was only over 60 games," etc.). I get that, and I can accept that argument. But if that's the case, I don't think it's fair to highlight weaknesses from last offseason without fully acknowledging the effect of the lockout, shortened spring training, etc. I don't remember enough of your posts to make that suggestion of you, but it's felt like a theme on the board.

I would say that they have been building a team for a long time, however, They've just done it incrementally, and in ways they haven't always been given credit for. I'd go back to my bulleted list from much earlier in this thread. I don't think any of the things I noted are new things this offseason.

And I'd also have a different take on saying that their free agent track record is quite bad. If by that, you mean that they've found needles in the haystack or that they've signed lots of BIG free agents, maybe. But one way their track record has been quite good comes back to that notion of not painting themselves into a corner. I can really only think of the Donaldson signing as one that may have hampered their ability to do other things. Other signings have been to fill specific needs, and a bunch of them have worked quite well. Think Jason Castro, Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda, etc.

I'd even argue that the Bundy signing wasn't as bad as it's generally seen. We perceived that it worked out badly because he ended up needing to pitch at the top of the rotation, but he was doing that because nearly every other pitcher spent time on the IL. If they stay healthy and he has the same season while being their No. 4 or 5 starter for the year, it looks different. And what he did do was buy them developmental time for Oder, Winder, etc., while they tried to cobble things together.

EDIT TO ADD: I was typing this while you responded with the post that appears just above this one, so it's not responding to what you said there. Gotta Zoom now, so no further comments from me.

Otaknam · April 18, 2023

That is great news! Lopez is looking like a real bulldog front line starter, which the Twins haven’t had forever. Losing Arraez hurt, given his popularity , but he is one dimensional, though that one dimension is fantastic. But he was dealt at the top of his value, a smart move to get max value back. Hopefully Ryan continues to emerge with his new sinker and proves to be at least a number 2, giving the team a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Gray has looked very good and if that continues an extension makes sense if the price is right. Mahle needs to show for an extension more but there are lots of games left for him to prove it. Paddock is the wildcard coming back from injury so that is an unknown. Varland and Ober have shown lots of potential as solid number 3 starters, maybe better. Things are looking up!

jmlease1 · April 18, 2023

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But all of this comes with issues, too. Their free agent track record is still quite bad. Their vaunted pitching pipeline looks better but still hasn't materialized. The one area I feel this team has done well is in trades and even that history is littered with more than a few clunkers.

I'm still unsure of this front office but I'm far more bullish on them today than I was four months ago because they've stopped doing some of the things that drove me batty from 2018-2021.

This year's efforts could significantly change their FA signing track record; Correa (he was a FA after all), Vazquez, Solano, and Gallo (even if I'm still queasy about Gallo) are all FA signings that are looking pretty smart so far.

We'll see. I definitely like the extension for Lopez, feels very different than say the one we made for Hughes.

Brock Beauchamp · April 18, 2023

12 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

This year's efforts could significantly change their FA signing track record; Correa (he was a FA after all), Vazquez, Solano, and Gallo (even if I'm still queasy about Gallo) are all FA signings that are looking pretty smart so far.

We'll see. I definitely like the extension for Lopez, feels very different than say the one we made for Hughes.

I like this year's free agent signings and hope the front office is rewarded for making them.

Still wish they traded Kepler, though. I didn't like Gallo and Kepler on the same roster and still don't.

Nine of twelve · April 18, 2023

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Still wish they traded Kepler, though.

Me too, along with most people on this board, and probably along with the FO. The problem is that everyone in baseball knew Kepler would be available so I suspect that if the Twins did get any offers they were all lowballs, below even Kepler's currently low perceived value. Plus I bet a lot of other teams figure a trade is not worth doing because there is a good chance Twins will wind up releasing him sometime this season. So about all the FO could do is hope that he would find a way to rebound and that he would generate some interest as part of a package at the trading deadline.

Hawkeye Bean Counter · April 18, 2023

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, the last several moves changed everything... but to the front office's defense, they started altering some of their approaches late in the previous offseason. They stopped pursuing bad pitchers and instead pursued pitchers with injury concerns... and that didn't work out much better. But it was different.

And it was a lot of the smaller moves that I really liked late in the offseason. I've been clamoring for a right-handed, glove-first fourth outfielder for... oh, about four years now. They finally went and got one. Kyle Farmer ended up being a much better move once Correa was signed. Solano again addressed right-handed concerns they had going into the season.

For the first time, it felt like the front office was building a team instead of players that were signed because they were a "good deal", not because they were actually good or fit well within the team. They stopped signing flat-out bad pitchers on one-year deals.

But all of this comes with issues, too. Their free agent track record is still quite bad. Their vaunted pitching pipeline looks better but still hasn't materialized. The one area I feel this team has done well is in trades and even that history is littered with more than a few clunkers.

I'm still unsure of this front office but I'm far more bullish on them today than I was four months ago because they've stopped doing some of the things that drove me batty from 2018-2021.

I disagree, they started having prospects and ammunition to do the deals they needed to get the type of pitchers we needed. We traded away our 1st round draft pick high school pitcher for Sonny Gray. That was over a year ago. That was 18 months ago. The got Ryan at the end of 2021. They got Maeda in 2020 Health wise the cumulative affect is starting to show up now, due to health and other reasons. It just feels like more has been done. No the difference is they have been gradually getting to this point, we had a health issue with Maeda. We have better catching now to help the pitchers. We also have a better bullpen and better starting pitching which help out each other. You can't rebuild a pitching staff overnight, and the Twins haven't even though it feels that way. As to the pipeline, we have a couple options at higher levels, and we have traded away 4 of the decent pipeline arms for help on the major league team. Even still to have the arms in the major leagues, Paddack available for future years, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic and any other arm that might surprise us in the future. That is light years better than the past. I will stop here as we each have our own opinions.

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