The Twins Should Be Embarrassed to Be Outspent by the Royals

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I see just over 90 mil in payroll for next year (I highly doubt they keep Farmer at another 6 mil clip, and Alcala is holding on by a thread) before pre-arb and arb deals. 37 for Correa, 15 for Buck, 10 for Vazquez, 22 for Lopez, 7.5 for Paddack puts you in the low 90s. The arb raises in the first year for those guys is going to be very minimal. Couple million a piece or so. So then you'd be at 100ish mil including those guys. Correa's money starts going down after that while they also lose Vazquez and Paddack money which allows for the higher arb numbers as those guys hit their 2nd year of arbitration.

The money doesn't really start being a problem until 2027 when those guys will be deep into the arb process. But 2027 is Lopez's last year, and none of the other young guys hit arbitration until 2027/2028 (depending on super 2 status). And 2028 is the last year of guaranteed money for Buxton and Correa. So you have nearly 70 mil coming off the books after 2027/2028. And typically you expect payrolls to keep increasing year over year with inflation and the natural growth of the business. I'd argue the Twins are in great position to add money if they were going to be sticking in that 150+ mil range this year and growing. But they've chosen not to so here we are talking about pillow contracts. But with all the talk of turning over most of the roster to pre-arb players the Twins could/should be in a great spot to sign another big deal through 2027/2028. The pre-arb contracts have them in a great spot.

The estimate below for 2025 includes arbitration increases.  The total is $120M. With 11 arbitration eligible players, that number is going to jump substantially in 2026 if some of those arbitration players perform.  It could be another $15-20M.

You are also making an assumption that revenue grows.  It has not been growing and it's very possible TV revenue will actually be less going forward.  The variable that nobody is acknowledging is that they had $30M in BAM money last year.  We can't just pretend that the record spending in 2023 was not a product of that $30M windfall.   

They had $267M in revenue for 2022.  If they forecasted a $13M increase od 2023 plus the BAM money, their forecasted revenue would have been around $310M so their $156M payroll makes sense.  The BAM money is gone and TV revenue might be a touch less going forward.  At 50% of revenue the budget is more likely around $140M unless attendance goes way up.  Another $20M on free agents would project 2 additional wins.  I doubt that boosts attendance.  

1    Pablo Lopez     21,750,000     
2    Joe Ryan            1,500,000     Arb-1
3    Bailey Ober        1,500,000     Arb-1
4    Chris Paddack    7,500,000     
5    Matt Canterino      770,000     
            
    Relief Pitchers        
6    Jhoan Duran          1,600,000     Arb-1
7    Griffin Jax              1,500,000     Arb-1
8    Brock Stewart       1,500,000     Arb-1
9    Cody Funderburk    770,000     
10    Jorge Alcala        1,500,000     Arb-3
11    Matt Canterino        770,000     
12    Josh Staumont    1,500,000     Arb-3
13    Justin Topa           1,700,000     Arb-2
            
    Catchers        
14    Ryan Jeffers        4,000,000     Arb-2
15    C. Vazquez         10,000,000     
            
    Infielders        
16    Alex Kirilloff      2,500,000     Arb-2
17    Edouard Julien      770,000     
18    Brooks Lee            770,000     
19    Carlos Correa    33,333,000     
            
    Utility Players        
20    Willi Castro     5,000,000     Arb-3
21    Royce Lewis         770,000     
22    Luis Severino      770,000     
23    Austin Martin      770,000     
            
    Outfielders        
24    Trevor Larnach    770,000     
25    Byron Buxton    15,142,857     
26    Matt Wallner        770,000     
            
    TOTAL PAYROLL       119,225,857     
 

16 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Or at least bladdered?

or kidneyed?

or perhaps you can stomach this quoted thread...😆

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The estimate below includes arbitration increases.  The total is $120M. With 11 arbitration eligible players, that number is going to jump substantially in 2026 if some of those arbitration players perform.  It could be another $15-20M.

You are also making an assumption that revenue grows.  It has not been growing and it's very possible TV revenue will actually be less going forward.  The variable that nobody is acknowledging is that they had $30M in BAM money last year.  We can't just pretend that the record spending in 2023 was not a product of that $30M windfall.   

They had $267M in revenue for 2022.  If they forecasted a $13M increase od 2023 plus the BAM money, their forecasted revenue would have been around $310M so their $156M payroll makes sense.  The BAM money is gone and TV revenue might be a touch less going forward.  At 50% of revenue the budget is more likely around $140M unless attendance goes way up.  Another $20M on free agents would project 2 additional wins.  I doubt that boosts attendance.  

1    Pablo Lopez     21,750,000     
2    Joe Ryan            1,500,000     Arb-1
3    Bailey Ober        1,500,000     Arb-1
4    Chris Paddack    7,500,000     
5    Matt Canterino      770,000     
            
    Relief Pitchers        
6    Jhoan Duran          1,600,000     Arb-1
7    Griffin Jax              1,500,000     Arb-1
8    Brock Stewart       1,500,000     Arb-1
9    Cody Funderburk    770,000     
10    Jorge Alcala        1,500,000     Arb-3
11    Matt Canterino        770,000     
12    Josh Staumont    1,500,000     Arb-3
13    Justin Topa           1,700,000     Arb-2
            
    Catchers        
14    Ryan Jeffers        4,000,000     Arb-2
15    C. Vazquez         10,000,000     
            
    Infielders        
16    Alex Kirilloff      2,500,000     Arb-2
17    Edouard Julien      770,000     
18    Brooks Lee            770,000     
19    Carlos Correa    33,333,000     
            
    Utility Players        
20    Willi Castro     5,000,000     Arb-3
21    Royce Lewis         770,000     
22    Luis Severino      770,000     
23    Austin Martin      770,000     
            
    Outfielders        
24    Trevor Larnach    770,000     
25    Byron Buxton    15,142,857     
26    Matt Wallner        770,000     
            
    TOTAL PAYROLL       119,225,857     
 

The Pohlads are going to do what they are going to do. 

In mid November my blueprint for 2024 was based on a budget of $120-125 million. I did expect some trades to improve the team. I know nothing about the finances of the team, but I know a little bit about money. I based my budget on the loss of BAM money plus the uncertain media situation. Until i hear something different, I would expect the budget next year to remain static. All of the actions of the Pohlads are well out of my control. I cannot defend them and find it a waste of my time to think any opinion of fans makes a difference. So it goes. 

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

If you guys were thinking like fiduciaries you would be championing them for putting out a damn good product at a lower cost than all their competitors.  You would also be championing them for not making bad deals just because some loud activist investors are yelling or other businesses are making bad purchases.

Course, that would be if you were actually thinking like fiduciaries.  In the meantime, be fans, responsible fans.

Stock goes up!

Boy, does this hit the bullseye.  If we understand that the Twins have to produce 2 WAR per dollar spent for every 1 WAR produced by the top market teams, the prerequisites to success are very apparent.  

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Pohlads are going to do what they are going to do. 

In mid November my blueprint for 2024 was based on a budget of $120-125 million. I did expect some trades to improve the team. I know nothing about the finances of the team, but I know a little bit about money. I based my budget on the loss of BAM money plus the uncertain media situation. Until i hear something different, I would expect the budget next year to remain static. All of the actions of the Pohlads are well out of my control. I cannot defend them and find it a waste of my time to think any opinion of fans makes a difference. So it goes. 

You are among a very tiny minority that recognized the BAM money.  I forgot about it in my first cut.  Then, it was brought up on one of the MLB radio shows long before we heard payroll would be cut.  

Cody's comment is an embarrassment.

It's not as much about the amount of spending but about where money is spent and how it is spent. 

Per Cody Tampa Bay is a complete embarrassment in reality they are a model the Twins look to and "SHOULD" look to. As a business which big time sports are it is about how the money is spent and how you develop the players in your system. Throwing money at problem area's is not the answer in baseball or life... it is where and how you spend it. 

Twins fans should be proud that the team is responsible in its spending while putting out a very good product year in and year out. 

15 hours ago, big dog said:

I don't think spending $32 million for two years of Michael Wacha (ages 34 and 35) is all that commendable, personally, but you can tell me in two years how that worked out.

Although compared to $45 million for three years of Seth Lugo (ages 34, 35, and 36)...

Right!  It's one thing to spend money.  It's another to do it well.  

I'm curious.  Could the Pohlads start up their own TV station ( like YES for the Yankees)?????? 

The Pohlad's have much deeper pockets than the Steinbrenner's correct????

Seems like this could be the answer???  Or am I wrong???  I swear to god I've heard the Pohlad's are actually one of the richest team owners in ALL of baseball??

I find some of the things in the article misleading.  First, the writer uses the term luxury tax payroll to determine spending.  The writer does address the actual payroll for this year is nearly 138 million, but the article does not show Twins actual payroll.  According to Spotrac Twins actual payroll is still higher than KC.  This is because Witt's contract is very backloaded, but the luxury tax number is the overall annual value.  So that right there is misleading in my opinion.  KC is not outspending the Twins this year of actual money being spent.  

Second, the writer uses the TV market as a basis for why the Twins should be spending more, but then points out that KC is earning more from TV contract than Twins are, so that is a poor argument that the TV market is reflection on how much money a team is earning. It is true the attendance is up for Twins, but that by itself does not tell a story, because we do not know what the actual difference in paid attendance and how much of actual money coming in is. We also do not know a difference in concession sales as well.  

I am not saying KC is earning more than Twins, most likely not, but first to say the KC is spending more is just false, they are not spending more actual money in this years payroll.  The contract that pushed KC past Twins in luxury number is backloaded so that down the line KC can cut costs elsewhere.  Specifically, Witt earns 2 mil this year, 7 mil next year, 13 mil in 2026, 19 in 2027, and it is not until 2028 that he earns 30 mil. Then 2029 to 2034 he earns 35 mil, and two of those years he can start opting out. The contract was set up this way mainly so they can pay other players more now and keep payroll down, and down the road they will deal with the large payday, but they have a few years, when no other long term deals are on their books. Specifically Perez contract after 2025.  Do you think they will sign a new guy for 22 mil in 2026 when Witt is getting paid 19 mil, doubtful. 

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Why do y'all do this to yourself over and over again. 

Feb 3, 1979... I realized that the Twins had a budget. I'm embarrassed that it took me until I was 13 years old to understand that the Twins have a budget. 

45 years later... consistently without fail... Every single year... the Twins have demonstrated that they have a budget... it should be clear to all by now. 

People who live in Minnesota understand that it will be cold in January. Every January... the temp is going to drop... you all know this. Consistency teaches you this.

If you don't like winters in International Falls... Move. 

You are correct. All these years I’ve never complained about the Pohlads ownership. As you point out they have been quite predictable in the way they operate the team which leads to a form of stability which is good. This off season feels different due to coming off the playoffs, having a chance to really go places with this team and the fact they didn’t plan well for this TV deal. It put a bee in my bonnet. The bee doesn’t care so I am taking the bonnet off and putting on my Twins cap. 

20 minutes ago, HoskenPowell said:

I'm curious.  Could the Pohlads start up their own TV station ( like YES for the Yankees)?????? 

The Pohlad's have much deeper pockets than the Steinbrenner's correct????

Seems like this could be the answer???  Or am I wrong???  I swear to god I've heard the Pohlad's are actually one of the richest team owners in ALL of baseball??

Yes also covers the Nets and Liberty.  Therefore, operating costs are spread across three teams.  I assume the Timberwolves and Links have contracts that can't be broken.

2024 season hasn’t begun yet 

I’ll wait and see 

Just so everyone understands, since 1991 only 1 team with a payroll ranked lower than 18th in the league won the World Series.  Spending does not guarantee you a title; not spending enough practically guarantees you won't win one.

I think the assumption that the Twins are going to walk away with this division is extremely short sighted.  I'm sure the same assumption was in play in 2011.  And 2021. Windows always close faster than you think.

25 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Just so everyone understands, since 1991 only 1 team with a payroll ranked lower than 18th in the league won the World Series.  Spending does not guarantee you a title; not spending enough practically guarantees you won't win one.

I think the assumption that the Twins are going to walk away with this division is extremely short sighted.  I'm sure the same assumption was in play in 2011.  And 2021. Windows always close faster than you think.

You are very correct Woof. No one absolutely no one expected the Twins to fail in 2011. I would venture to say pretty much every Twin fan expected us to win the Central that year. No one expected the 2023 CWS to lose 101 games either. We are taking for granted that we will roll through the Central this season. 

We are not as good of team that beat Toronto in the PO last season. Other teams in the Central are better. 2024 is no gimmee.

Hmmm, let me think this through. So, the Royals, picking at the top of the draft seemingly for a decade or so, can’t place a single prospect on Keith Laws’ top 100. Another season with over 100 losses under their belt, meaning they’re a bottom 10 in the power rankings and farm system rankings. Whereas the “embarrassing” Twins get top 10 rankings in some corners with respect to both MLB and prospect rankings. Seems to me this article should be about how embarrassing it is for the Royals to outspend the Twins.

21 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Just so everyone understands, since 1991 only 1 team with a payroll ranked lower than 18th in the league won the World Series.  Spending does not guarantee you a title; not spending enough practically guarantees you won't win one.

I think the assumption that the Twins are going to walk away with this division is extremely short sighted.  I'm sure the same assumption was in play in 2011.  And 2021. Windows always close faster than you think.

The data I compiled only goes back to 2000 (see below0.  I used 90 win seasons as a measure.  The Royals won a WS but they have also been the worst team in the league in terms of win record and 90 win seasons so I would not use WS wins as the only measure of success.  

There is no question that spending is advantageous.  However, you are focused on the wrong variable.  Is it willingness to spend that prevents all of us from spending another $50K/year on a better house/automobiles/ vacations or is it income.  The variable that dictates signing expensive players is not willingness to spends, it's revenue.

The reality is that the likelihood of any team in the bottom half of revenue winning the WS is far lower than teams in the top 10.  More importantly, savvy moves that produce more for less are the only way teams with less revenue can possibly be successful.  Yet, a whole lot of people are focusing 90% of their attention on acquisition sources that have produced 20% of the WAR generated by 90 win teams outside the top 10 in revenue.

                          Win %      90 Win 
1    Yankees          0.579         13
2    Dodgers         0.563         13
3    Cardinals        0.554         13
4    Braves            0.545        12
5    Red Sox          0.545        13
6    Giants             0.521         8
7    Angels            0.521         7
8    Oakland          0.518         10
9    Cleveland       0.516         10
10    Astros           0.513          8
11    Phillies          0.508          5
12    Blue Jays      0.503          3
13    TWINS           0.502         6
14    Mariners       0.499          7
15    Mets             0.499          4
16    Cubs             0.498          5
17    Tampa          0.497          9
18    White Sox    0.494          4
19    Brewers       0.493          5
20    Rangers      0.491           6
21    Nationals     0.486          5
22    Dbacks        0.484          5
23    Padres         0.474          1
24    Reds             0.471          3
25    Marlins        0.468         1
26    Tigers          0.464         4
27    Rockies        0.462         3
28    Orioles        0.453         3
29    Pirates        0.447         2
30    Royals        0.436         1
 

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You're assuming they had 267 in revenue. You're assuming they actually spent the BAM money on the roster. You're assuming that revenue doesn't grow. You're assuming just as much as the rest of us. 

Yes, the arb money will go up 15-20 mil in 2026. And the base comes down 17.5 with Vazquez and Paddack no longer on the roster. So now you're up about 3 mil total. So, like I said, if they were going to be sticking in that 150+ range (didn't say they should, didn't say they would, said if they were going to) they'd have plenty of space for a Montgomery or Snell or whatever big contract they wanted until 2027 when they don't lose contracts to make up for the boost in arb deals. Let's say it's 140, though, if they can't find a way to make 20 mil useful in adding wins to this team (free agency isn't the only way to increase payroll spend) they should find new people to run the team.

No.  I measured payroll against total revenue to show what percentage of revenue they spent.  The ratio speaks for itself and the increase in payroll speaks for itself.  Payroll did not go up by the entirety of the BAM money.  We don't know what other expenses BAM may have been used to fund.  What we do know is that you are ignoring the fact that it existed when you insist there is no reason to reduce payroll from the 2023.  Level.  Obviously, between BAM and TV revenue it makes perfect sense.  

The $267 in revenue came from Statistica.  Is this hard fact no.  Is it a reasonable source?  Yes.  There are also other sources reporting very similar numbers.   I then added $13M suggesting this seemed like a reasonable assumption for them to increase expected revenue.  They mighty have forecasted no increase.  I was just trying to make a reasonable assumption.

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Tampa should be embarrassed. They take money from other teams and pocket it, never trying to get over the hump. Why any fan would root for teams to under pay players so billionaires can have more money is mind boggling. 

I would agree with this. Right now the Twins are swimming in those same waters this off season. WE have used this off season to draw closer to the pack instead of widening the gap. We needed a legit SP to slide in behind Lopez. We get DeSclafani. Burnes was available. He did not cost the entire farm. He did bring a good price but it would have been a bold move for us to meet that price. It would not have taken Jenkins or Lee. We needed a big bat. We got Carlos Santana. Rhys Hoskins was available and he would not have blown up the future of the franchise. I am disappointed in drawing closer to the pack.