Big Splash? More Like Big Slash

Morales was their best bat last year. What can his production be replaced with? 11 million, 1.5 buyout. Unless the number crunchers figure that somebody good will fall through the cracks, he probably stays.

Volquez, Morales, Vargas, and Davis are NOT long term players. They are at the point in their careers where they get 1 year deals, and often traded mid season to contenders. Gordon is past his prime. He will need to decide on whether or not to take less money to retire in Kansas City, or get more money and become one of those 1 year contract guys. I could see Gordon going to the As. He fits their business model.

So that means the Twins could spend upwards of $130 million on payroll, which they won't, in 2017. They have Mauer on the books for two mroe seasons. They also have Santana and Perkins for two more years and Hughes for three, and that's about it. You might expect a considerable drop in revenue next season, but if the Twins can excite the fan base, maybe not. Still, whatever isn't spent one years doesn't seem to carry over to other years (why not). And, thusly, you have to weigh your prospects well, signing some sooner rather than later with the longterm gamble. But the question will always remain, do you ever again make someone a franchise player (like Mauer) and do you ever overspend for mid-level talent longterm (like most of the rotation of late).

a. you do realize that based on what you said (ie. that the teams with the best 2 starting pitchers and the best bullpen are most likely to make it to the World Series,) you just contradicted your argument that it is a "crapshoot".  It is either luck or not.  And having the best 2 SP and the best pen is not luck, but planning and building.

b. Highest salaries does not equate "biggest" markets.

c. there are no playoffs in baseball.

Look at Atlanta's playoff record with the staff they had. Johan Santana is 1-3  in the playoffs. You need 2 of the best starting pitchers, it is still a crapshoot if they are going to rise up.

Santana had five starts in the playoffs and was great in four of them.

I don't think the point was to dog Santana.  The point was you can't just say "have a couple great pitchers and you're good".  

 

Baseball playoffs are basically small sample size terrorism.  You can try to plan and have the best talent available to give yourself the best shot, but the small sample will always be there to humble you.  I think the point is, you can call it a crapshoot (totally uncertain) and still prepare the best you can.  But no matter how good Johan pitches he can still go 1-3 over a small sample and have his team lose most of those games.

"Small sample size terrorism" is such a better phrase than "crapshoot." I may start using from here on.

I don't think the point was to dog Santana.  The point was you can't just say "have a couple great pitchers and you're good".  

 

Baseball playoffs are basically small sample size terrorism.  You can try to plan and have the best talent available to give yourself the best shot, but the small sample will always be there to humble you.  I think the point is, you can call it a crapshoot (totally uncertain) and still prepare the best you can.  But no matter how good Johan pitches he can still go 1-3 over a small sample and have his team lose most of those games.

Pretty spot on.  Getting to the world series is a poor measure of the impact of revenue.  There are many variables and its a small sample size.  Regular season records offer a much better statistical measure of the impact of revenue.  The Yankees won 1592 games since 2000.  Yes, the Royals won a WS.  They also won 359 games less since 2000.  The bottom 12 teams with the exception of Oakland have averaged 16 less wins/year.  (94 vs 78).  I think the correlation to revenue is very clear.

BTW ... Market is often used as a proxy from revenue but market size does not necessarily reflect revenue (ie.St. Louis)  

"Small sample size terrorism" is such a better phrase than "crapshoot." I may start using from here on.

Larger sample size, Atlanta