Awkward Decisions

If Joe wants to come back, and will accept a reasonable contract, he's back – so goes the prevailing wisdom. Conspicuously, it's not a stance that has been openly taken by Derek Falvey or Thad Levine.

 

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When asked, Falvey said they're not factoring Buxton's team control into their thinking (what else are ya gonna say),

Don't you think "what else are ya gonna say" would apply to the Mauer situation too? There is really no benefit to publicly disclosing their offseason/2019 plan for Mauer right now, so I don't see the absence of any such comment as conspicuous at all.

In the age of 12 and 13 man staffs, carrying two 1B/DHs, who only 1B/DH, necessarily causes a roster crunch.

 

And if you try to platoon them, it only gets worse.

If one player starts 86% of the time when active, and the other player starts even more -- I don't see how there is a roster crunch. It is effectively the same as having a full-time 1B and a full-time DH. Having Sano as your 3B, who you also want to get starts at DH and 1B, makes it even moreso.

I'm not suggesting a strict platoon either, although if you rest Mauer for 14% of starts, you can certainly try to time them vs LHP.

I'd sign Josh Donaldson for third, and Sano is my first baseman (hopefully for the next decade).

That is a reasonable alternative to Mauer for sure, but it doesn't really change the composition or usage of our bench either. You still need a starting DH and a utility infielder, same as the Mauer plan.

Again, it can't be overstated how valuable that extra year of service time will be in 2022, when Buxton is 28 (for relevant perspective, Aaron Hicks is 28 now). Whether the front office is running out the string on his service clock, or engaging in extension negotiations, or discussing trades with another team – from any perspective, it's just really key.

 

2 things:

1. I think it can be overstated. That extra year of control is clearly less valuable now than at previous points in Buxton's career. (Same for Sano too, which I suspect is why they didn't try to option him earlier this year than they did.) Maybe the extra year is still valuable enough on its own, but I think we should keep that relative value in mind -- there is clearly not the same imperative to securing the extra year now as there was, say, back in Buxton's rookie year.

2. This was addressed in the earlier thread, but for those that missed it: seeing Buxton in September and securing the extra year are not mutually exclusive. The Twins still have a minor league option on Buxton, which they could use for ~29 days in 2019 to achieve the same thing. He'd be up before May 1st.

Frankly, if he is healthy, Buxton needs reps, not rest. At least when high-level reps are available, and he's about to get 4+ months of offseason rest anyway. My plan would be to play him in Minnesota after the AAA season ends, but also plan on someone else being the opening day CF in 2019 while Buxton gets some extra reps at AAA to open the season. We need to prepare for the possibility that Buxton won't be the 2019 answer in CF, just as much as we should want that extra year of control.

86% is extremely misleading.

 

Mauer has started 67 games at first base this year. 67. Another 26 at DH. Even when healthy, he gets one game per series off from first base. And I certainly don't know the chances he spends time on the DL again next year, but they're not insignificant. He'll be in his mid 30s with a history of concussions, leg problems, and back problems.

 

Keeping him around means you need someone else who can play first base, which limits the possibilies for the other two bench spots. Or means you spend a lot of time with weak position players, like ending up with Ehire Adrianza making starts at first base and the outfield.

 

If we are carrying another DH/1B anyway who starts the rest, which is what we did with Morrison and what we are doing now with Austin and what we could do with Sano, what does it matter how the 1B starts are divided up? You don't need a third 1B on the roster, and indeed the Twins haven't kept one (aside from wanting reps for Sano over there, which as you suggest could be a separate consideration). Adrianza didn't start at 1B this year until the front office was readying to punt (July 14) with Sano still in the minors and Morrison on the DL -- it wasn't because of Mauer. (FWIW, Mauer started that game at DH, and Garver was on the bench, as was Astudillo and Grossman. I am not sure exactly what was going on that day, but I don't think you can really fault Mauer for Adrianza starting at 1B. Belisle and Astudillo both pitched that day too, so maybe it was something in Molitor's coffee. )

Mauer's health time on the DL should absolutely be a factor in the decision whether to re-sign him, but it really has little to do with causing a short bench. His replacement at 1B can take his roster spot when he is on the DL. And the team can be more aggressive about putting him on the DL when he is day-to-day, if they haven't started that already.

Now, if you want to acquire a new starting DH who doesn't double as a 1B, that could be an issue with a Mauer pairing. But it would be just as much of an issue with a Sano pairing, as he's not starting significantly more than 86% of the games at 1B either. Likely the same for Austin.

Do you know off the top of your head if Buxton is arbitration eligible after this season regardless of whether the Twins call him up in September or not? I'm assuming that he will be Super-2 if he is not called up...

Correct, Buxton is Super-2 regardless, since he is just shy of 3 full years. If he is called up for 13 days, he will hit 3 full years service time.

He'd remain in the same 3 years service time group following the 2019 season, if we option him for ~29 days next season.

Nelson Cruz is interesting but he's also 38, can only DH, and is looking for a long-term deal.

 

Can Cruz really expect a long term deal? I have to admit, I am intrigued by him...