This Free Agent Pitcher is the Solution to Twins' Anthony DeSclafani Injury

40 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@Cody Pirkl I agree with your assessments. My argument is, do you roll with what we have right now or do you go out and get Monty. Just another bandage guy isn’t anything more than what we have in our system already. Its just another arm. 
DeSclafani only had #5 spot because Varland has options.  Just like if we spent $ on SPx at this point. x would get #5 until x failed somehow. If we are going down that road, why not ride a thoroughbred in Monty instead of any broken down SPx. 

The problem with riding with what we have in my opinion is I don't know how you trust anyone beyond Louie Varland in the minors to provide the quantity or quality if innings Lorenzen should be able to. I think trusting Woods-Richardson, Headrick etc. Is something we don't want to do, and I think Montgomery is unrealistic in terms of what the Twins may be willing to spend. 

I see Lorenzen being right in the sweet spot of what they need and what they can afford. 

23 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

How different is this to when Mahle went down last year?  We have a young guy waiting in St. Paul who is largely unproven that can step in just like we did last year.  It certainly worked fine and there’s a solid chance it will again.  That’s one of the reasons that the Twins acquired an “extra” starter.  Now that someone is injured (coincidentally the guy we acquired to be the “extra”), we plug in the next guy.  

I also think that it is in our best interest to have some starts by SWR, Festa, and Headrick this year.  I would rather not have it be at the end of the season with the division on the line, but at some point those guys need to have a shot to see what they can do and so that the Twins can know what they can do.  The odds of at least one of those guys being solid are pretty good, yet some are treating potential starts from them as being a disaster for the team.  

The payroll isn’t increasing, so the big guns aren’t coming in to save us, and we have our own little guns that are just as capable as the ones we might be able to sign by having a bake sale. 

The difference is last year the Twins were very fortunate with their SP health, and Mahle was essentially the only starter they lost aside from Joe Ryan for a time. What happens if Paddack has issues coming back from his second TJ? What if Ober's injury history pops back up? The season hasn't even started yet and they're down a pitcher, and last year when it happened they also had Ober ahead of Varland.

I know people are excited about SWR and see guys like Headrick as depth, but those aren't guys you want to head into the year relying on in my opinion. They weren't even effective in St. Paul last season. 

I also don't think Lorenzen is a "little gun". I don't think people realize how massive of a success it would be if Varland matched what Lorenzen did last year from a quantity and quality standpoint. He's a good pitcher that can probably be had at a steep discount.

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

At some point, you have to trust prospects or fire everyone involved. Now, I don't know if this is that point, but people act like trusting young players is bad on it's face.

"Prospect" has a pretty broad definition. The only pitcher in Triple-A even close to a top prospect is David Festa who threw 12 innings there last year. If you want to argue he deserves a shot at some point in 2024, I'd agree but I don't think it'd help him if he gets forced up in April or May. 

I don't really understand wanting to trust SWR based on a few spring innings, or Brent Headrick at all. Those two were really bad last year.

44 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Another guy where we have to look at a half season of ERA and forget about everything else? Hard pass on Lorenzen, he won't help this team. Consider this is a guy with a brutally low ability to miss bats and a high groundball rate. That means that Julien, Jeffers and Kirilloff are probably sitting every one of his games for Farmer, Vazquez and Santana. Now, not only do you have a sketchy pitcher on the mound, but you have your B lineup on the field hitting as well. 

Huge net negative.

I think second half struggles can be expected when you move from the AL Central to the NL East, especially as he went over his career high in innings. I'm not worried about him returning to the AL Central at the back of our rotation.

Theyre also not going to just flat out bench Julien based on the pitcher that day. No shot. Kirilloff already isn't going to be playing 1B over Santana very often, and I definitely don't see the correlation between groundball pitchers and who's catching.

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I thought I was clearly saying I didn't know if now was the time? I mean, I literally typed those words. That post was disagreeing with the idea that trusting young players is always bad. 

Even if it's just Devil's Advocate, your point seems to be "who knows? Maybe those guys could pan out and help fill the rotation" I'm just making the point that there isn't evidence of them being capable of that, and therefore I'd like to see them bring in more of a sure thing.

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think you are forgetting that Maeda was a mess for a big part of the season as well.  You are correct in saying we had Ober ahead of Varland as well last year, but I'm not sure that Varland was necessarily thought of any higher last year than SWR/Festa/Headrick are this year, and now there are three of them.  That does increase the odds of success.

I do think that Lorenzen is a worthwhile starting pitcher (but definitely a little gun compared to the big guns out there), but I'm choosing to believe management when they say they are done spending this spring.  We can wish all we want that it isn't so, but that doesn't make it change and we just wind up more frustrated.  At some point imploring the front office to spend money to sign another free agent pitcher is a fruitless exercise.  It's not suggesting that we trade Nick Punto for Mike Trout, but the results are the same and the frustration is probably higher when it doesn't happen. 

Varland won Minor League Pitcher of the year and debuted in 2022. Woods-Richardson and Headrick had near 5 ERAs in St. Paul last year. Tjose two in particular are miles behind where Varland was at the start of last season. I hope Festa will be good, but he threw 12 innings in Triple-A and doesn't have the pedigree of success and workload Varland did.

Those are guys I'd like to see further down in the pecking order, because the reality is that if one of them is a halfway competent MLB starter for a couple years, that's a very good outcome. 

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They've been pretty clear they are done spending money. 

That was before they lost their 5th starter. Of course Varland can replace him and maybe that's what they choose to do, but they've shown in the past that's not how they prefer to operate. I'm just hoping they can be coaxed into pushing payroll a bit further.

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@Cody Pirkl @Mike Sixel I understand the need for as many arms as possible but at what cost?  If we spend 6-8M on Lorenzen now, does that mean we cant make a play for a #1 rental in August because we are already over budget. Young pitchers can be aggravating but at this point, we might want to make the sneaky play to get them some innings before summer just to see if one will stick. Its a new year and we really only need 1 guy to find it.  2 if we have more injuries. 

I don't think adding Lorenzen now would stop them from adding at the deadline. We'd be talking about a higher tier of pitcher at this point. 

If we had two Varlands ready to go, I'd say ride with the younger guys. Unfortunately it's Varland who we hope is relatively safe, Festa who's thrown 12 innings in St. Paul, and then guys like Woods-Richardson who have pitched so poorly that they aren't even on most prospect lists anymore. I just fear the odds of multiple guys at that level working out are very very low.

14 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Last year Vazquez pretty much always caught when the 'defensive' team was playing. And teams do account for pitching styles when they chose the catcher because just as sinkers=groundballs, sinkers=balls in the dirt as well.

And if you don't think they'll pull Julien when a groundball pitcher is on the mound, see last year's decisions when the groundball heavy bullpen came into the game. Not that I think they should pull him, but they did, and regularly.

I think you'll have to show your work on both counts to win me over. The Vazquez/Jeffers split pretty much always had more to do with the handedness of the opposing pitcher and/or how many days one caught in a row. 

Julien was pretty much always sitting as a result of the handedness of the opposing pitcher aside from from being lifted in late and close games for defensive purposes. 

Sonny Gray was the only groundball pitcher in the rotation last year, and Julien and Jeffers played when he pitched plenty. Look no further than the playoffs when the games counted the most and they both started when Sonny pitched.

27 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Canterino is likely experiencing some of what Maeda and other TJ recovery guys have. Its not abnormal at all. He will likely be building up for a while yet and hit some pain in the process.

Important to consider with Canterino: his career high in professional innings for a season is 37. I was surprised they didn't just make him a reliever when he came back as a 26 year old and the clock ticking on his team control. Now he's starting the season on the IL with an innings limit probably well below 100. 

I'm guessing when he's healthy again this time, we see them throw the plans for him to start out the window. If his body can even handle an MLB starters workload, it'll take multiple seasons to build up an innings floor.