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"We’re shooting for somewhere between March 17th and 24th," Luke Keaschall said.
That’s the window in which the Twins prospect expects to return to playing the field, in comments shared with reporters in the Twins' spring training clubhouse on Tuesday. He has an idea of where he'll be when that happens, too.
"I’ll probably start at second base, as it’s easiest on the arm," Keaschall said. "Throughout spring training, we’ll build up to the outfield and everything else."
Keaschall’s long-term defensive home is one of the few questions remaining in the polished profile of the Twins' 2023 second-rounder, who spent a significant amount of his 2024 season at DH while managing the elbow injury that was eventually fixed surgically.
"I had good days and bad days, but you learn to manage it and find a way to help the team win," he said.
Indeed, Keaschall contributed plenty in 2024, in stops at High-A Cedar Rapids and Double-A Wichita. He and the organization had already co-authored a plan to play every day and manage his injury for the majority of the year, before scheduling surgery to ensure a clear on-ramp to his 2025 season. When asked about the impact of his injury on his day-to-day ability to play, Keaschall kept it simple.
"It helps you focus on what you can do well."
What the 22-year-old right-handed hitter did well in 2024, was pretty much everything. Keschall was otherworldly at Cedar Rapids, hitting .335/.457/.544, with 19 extra-base hits in 44 games, good for a 181 wRC+.
He wasn’t quite as incandescent at Double A, managing a .281/.392/.439 line with 8 home runs in 58 games before being shut down for surgery (138 wRC+). He was 23-for-29 in stolen base attempts across both levels, though.
With the minor exception of a major but well-managed injury, it’s hard to imagine a better first two professional seasons for Keaschall, who will likely start 2025 at Triple-A St. Paul and has a shot to contribute to the big-league roster. I liked Keashcall as an option for the Twins before the 2023 MLB Draft, but turning a second-round pick into a consensus top-75 global prospect in under 18 months is an outcome the Twins couldn’t even have conceived of.
So, how did we get here? What does it tell us about the Twins' player development strengths? What can we expect from Keaschall in 2025?
Keaschall has one of the better approaches at the plate of any prospect I’ve written up. For ease of use, we’ll hone in on three important aspects of his skill set and nestle them in an MLB context.
Extreme (and Improved) Patience
Keaschall has made a significant reduction in his swing rate since college. In his junior year at Arizona State, he swung around 50% of the time (extremely aggressive). With the Twins, his swing rate was 38%. If we want an MLB comparison, only Juan Soto had a lower swing rate (among qualified hitters) in 2024 (36.9%).
Simply not swinging as much isn’t necessarily a strength on its own, but in combination with Keaschall’s other skills, it becomes a major asset. This improvement speaks to the Twins' ability to coax better swing decisions from their players, and is an indicator of why they don’t shy away from drafting or trading for prospects with a high chase rate.
Rarely Expanding the Strike Zone
Speaking of chase rate. Keaschall’s overall chase rate was around 15% in 2024. That would be close to the best in the majors. That’s Lars Nootbar or Soto territory. Keaschall himself reflected on pitch selection as an important factor within his locus of control while playing through his injury.
"If I swing at good pitches, I can stay productive," he said. "If I waste a swing on a bad pitch, I know it’s going to hurt."
Can we assume a stable chase rate as Keaschall continues to progress to Triple A and the majors? No. However, the example is useful for contextualizing the degree of excellence in Keaschall’s approach.
Bat-to-Ball Skill and Hitting the Ball in the Air with Consistency
So Keaschall doesn’t swing much overall, and almost never swings at pitches outside the strike zone. What about when he does swing? Does he make contact? Where does that contact end up? Keaschall has great bat-to-ball skills. His contact rate of 81% in 2024 would put him in the top 30 in the bigs, next to names like Marcus Semien and Jackson Merrill. When he does make contact, it’s consistently in the air. Keaschall maintained a ground-ball rate of just 35% in 2024. That would be in the best 25 in MLB. Most hitters at the top of that list are monsters (Francisco Lindor, Yordan Alvarez, Mookie Betts, et al.)
These MLB comparisons are crude at best, so let’s stitch this profile together. You have a prospect who doesn’t swing much, and rarely swings out of the zone. When he does swing, he makes contact at a good rate, and when he makes contact, it’s usually in the air. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you throw in average power and the ability to steal 20 bases. Keaschall’s approach yielded a 13% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate in 2024. More in a similar vein should be on the way in 2025.
So, what should we expect from Keaschall in 2025? It’s likely that he makes his MLB debut. It’s likely that he adjusts relatively quickly. It’s likely that, in time, he’s a good enough hitter for his defensive position not to matter much. Keaschall should be about as low-variance a prospect as you can get, given his approach, his bat-to-ball skills, and the fact that he’s already proven it in the middle levels of the minors (with a torn UCL and all). As much as you can feel confident in prospect prognostication, Keaschall should be a low-risk, productive (2-3 win) everyday player, and soon.
Keaschall himself said it best when asked where he sees his best defensive position, and perhaps about where he'll spend his time this year, geographically.
"Wherever they want me to play, I like to hit."
Twins Daily’s John Bonnes contributed reporting to this story.
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