Article: Twins Roster Projection 2.0

[gocgo]

Couple of thoughts as I leave. I think Diamond over Worley if it's close. We'll see how Worley does today. I think they trust Diamond more.

 

After Wed nights crapstorm, Gardy was really impressed with Tonkin. Something like "he threw the living expletive out of that ball."

 

 

I watched Worley last year in ST and just didn't see a fastball with any life. I don't see him making the roster or even being a Twin for much longer. I think, given the lack of a lefty in the lineup, that Diamond probably has the inside track. I do think it is kind of sad that what drives some of these decisions is whether or not they have options left. I understand it, but I wish it were as simple as putting the best team on the field.

[Mike Sixel]

Not much to show for Revere, I guess. Maybe May some day.....

[tobi0040]

I watched Worley last year in ST and just didn't see a fastball with any life. I don't see him making the roster or even being a Twin for much longer. I think, given the lack of a lefty in the lineup, that Diamond probably has the inside track. I do think it is kind of sad that what drives some of these decisions is whether or not they have options left. I understand it, but I wish it were as simple as putting the best team on the field.

 

I am not a believer in Worley either. He has no velocity, life, or deception.

 

I think Deduno and Diamond are miles ahead of him. I would make Deduno the 5th starter until I see something that makes me feel otherwise.

[jimbo92107]

I've got nothing against Kurt Suzuki, but he's definitely not the future catcher for this club. Why not start Pinto, who may be the future backstop, and have Herrmann or Fryer back him up? What's the downside, not making the playoffs? Twins have got that covered for at least the next two seasons no matter who is playing C. Might as well give the kids some playing time, see if they can hold up over a full season.

[beckmt]

I am not a believer in Worley either. He has no velocity, life, or deception.

 

I think Deduno and Diamond are miles ahead of him. I would make Deduno the 5th starter until I see something that makes me feel otherwise.

 

Have you watched Worley this year or just going on last year. Diamond is my odd man out, Worley can start or relieve depending on Deduno, Do not think Kubel or Bartlett should make this club unless they earn it. We may suffer a year or two with the kids, but much rather that then watching the almost unwatchable veterans.

[tobi0040]

Arcia has had two AAA stints already, Gibson has been in AAA forever, and Pinto was destructive in the IL and performed much better than Fryer did there. A bottom of the barrel catcher like Suzuki shouldn't block a 24 year old with some all around potential. With Hicks, I can see why, but I feel like as old as he is that he should have his 2nd go soon. I wasn't largely in favor of sending him down to begin with and let's not forget that a lot of poor umpiring gave him a much bigger strike zone than he was used to.

 

I agree on Pinto for sure. Give this kid 2 pitchers to catch and a spot in the lineup the other two days. He is going to learn by playing up here and interacting with Suzuki. I am on the fence in Gibson, but he is 27 years old. Hicks probably could use a little confidence down in AAA.

[jimbo92107]

If you are trying to get a job in the Twins FO, you are doing a great Bill Smith impression. I think there is a way for Santana to get a look early in the season until FLorimon is ready. It might be a long shot, but it is possible.

 

Don't see much harm in giving a guy like Santana a cup of coffee. Maybe he'll get jazzed and look like a superstar, maybe he'll get over-excited and look like a fool. Either way it will provide some memorable moments, and then he can go back down after Florimon is ready.

[twinsfan34]

It's certainly not crazy to think that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks & Gibson could continue to develop in AAA for at least a few months.

 

AAA is worse than AA in the opinion of David Ortiz and many MLB players. The mentality is different and you get guys throwing 87-90 mph iwth a lot of junk.

 

Better to be in AA and see a 95-98 mph fastball and a guy trying to get his curve over for 3 months.

 

AAA by June...I guess I could agree with...any playing time there afterwards is poor competition - they won't get developed playing against that kind of competition.

 

Not saying you're doing this...but most people need to realize MOST prospects aren't served well by going to AAA. It's not really a 'progression step'...

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_25248274/david-ortiz-twins-miguel-sano-give-him-shot

[twinsfan34]

I can't see the Twins keeping Kubel instead of Arcia.

 

I also don't see how Arcia doesn't at least start in MLB...he can go down to AAA in May if he can't hit.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Don't see much harm in giving a guy like Santana a cup of coffee.

 

Nope me neither. I very much agree. Guzman and Rivas had their cup of coffee together at age 20-21. A J saw MLB time at age 21 and was full time catcher by 25.

[gocgo]

I am not a believer in Worley either. He has no velocity, life, or deception.

 

I think Deduno and Diamond are miles ahead of him. I would make Deduno the 5th starter until I see something that makes me feel otherwise.

 

I'd be fine with Deduno too. Has best stuff of the 3 of them, but walks a lot of guys when he can't control it. Not really the guy you want to bring in from the bullpen either. My only issue there is that the only lefties are out of the pen. Not sure how long they can keep Tonkin down. We have no power arms like him that I know of. 98 mph?

[ashbury]

Sure, the "options remaining" thing will play a factor. It does in every decision with every team.

 

Completely a side point, but MLBTR has a series on who is out of options on each team. They've only done half the major league teams so far, but what jumps out at me so far is the correlation between a team being good and having few players out of minor league options.

• Is this a simple byproduct of their prospects coming up to the majors and being good right away?
  
• In a related way, is this a byproduct of not needing to rush youngsters?
  
• Is this a conscious and on-going strategy of the front office to trade away or dump most players who will soon cause them to have to juggle their plans?
  
• Is the presence of a lot of these guys just the mark of a team having been in the bottom echelon for a while and their roster of upcoming players isn't settled yet?
  

I don't know, but to see the Cardinals (0) and the Tigers (3) with so few makes me look forward to a day when numbers of options isn't an issue for the Twins (8) either.

 

(Exceptions like the Indians (2) and the Pirates (10) need to be taken into account in forming a real theory about this. But then I look at the Cubs(11) and say, nope, I don't want lots of guys with no options, no way no how.)

[Dantes929]

"Couple of thoughts as I leave. I think Diamond over Worley if it's close. We'll see how Worley does today. I think they trust Diamond more. " Todays performance isn't going to help Worley any but it is still early. If Diamond and Worley are even at the end of camp it will be Worley and have nothing to do with trust but everything with giving the guy they traded Revere for another chance.

[Kwak]

I have posted several times that I believe we will see mostly veteran retreads "coming North". The Twins are desperate! The "rushed" baloney has been used repeatedly. The "show me results in AAA" also. As Twinsfan stated, AAA isn't a 'progression" step--it's a regression step. Teams may send a guy to AAA on the way to the majors as a warning--"don't mess-up or you will be back to this dump". When those who "need a lesson" in humility, or have 'messed-up"--back they go to AAA. The Twins are wont to say "further experience is needed"--but it really is a punishment. I think it's used to hide faults--player's and management's.

As noted through the years Gardenhire has demonstrated his "preference" for veterans--even those of lesser quality. I believe he demanded more veterans on the Active Roster as a condition to re-sign with the Twins. I also think Ryan wants to give Worley every chance to succeed so people won't critcize him for trading a popular, and decent CF for two pitchers who don't belong in the majors.. Thus, I am now convinced that Worley will be the #5 SP (barring injury). Meyer and May will stay buried in the minors as long as possible, because if these two (also) fail the Twins will be buying free-agent pitchers for four more years (expensive!).

[Dantes929]

Taking Hicks north last year was not a mistake in anything but hindsight. He was just as likely to succeed as fail. This should not be used as a reason to stop giving young players a shot. Its like pointing to Nishioka and concluding that Japanese players can't thrive in the majors, thus ignoring Ichiro or Matsui. If they think Santana can do the job then that is who they should go with. I don't believe the future is Florimon but never give up on anyone. I would rather Florimon go to the minors and succeed there and Santana get the chance rather than the other way around. Forimon has done nothing to guarantee a spot and will have missed training time. Of course, ask again in 2 weeks and Florimon and Worley might be doing great. Such is baseball.

[howieramone1406390264]

I have posted several times that I believe we will see mostly veteran retreads "coming North". The Twins are desperate! The "rushed" baloney has been used repeatedly. The "show me results in AAA" also. As Twinsfan stated, AAA isn't a 'progression" step--it's a regression step. Teams may send a guy to AAA on the way to the majors as a warning--"don't mess-up or you will be back to this dump". When those who "need a lesson" in humility, or have 'messed-up"--back they go to AAA. The Twins are wont to say "further experience is needed"--but it really is a punishment. I think it's used to hide faults--player's and management's.

As noted through the years Gardenhire has demonstrated his "preference" for veterans--even those of lesser quality. I believe he demanded more veterans on the Active Roster as a condition to re-sign with the Twins. I also think Ryan wants to give Worley every chance to succeed so people won't critcize him for trading a popular, and decent CF for two pitchers who don't belong in the majors.. Thus, I am now convinced that Worley will be the #5 SP (barring injury). Meyer and May will stay buried in the minors as long as possible, because if these two (also) fail the Twins will be buying free-agent pitchers for four more years (expensive!).

 

When Sano got hurt, that pushed the parade back to 2016 according to some. If Meyer and May fail we have no option but to buy expensive FA pitchers until 2018. I'm considering petitioning the board to see if I can join the other side.

[cmathewson]

Interesting that 2.0 isn't much different than 1.0. I can't say I like it much more.

 

1. Fifth starter: Antony didn't seem pleased with Diamond's command or control, which is tough if you're a command and control pitcher. Worley is the second coming of Nick Blackburn. Good guy, but his elbow is not right. Sinkers have a way of shredding elbows. Deduno needs to come back slowly; I don't understand the rush. Put him on the 60-day DL and let him rehab until he's ready. That leaves Gibson, who's the best of the four anyway.

 

2. Center field: I just can't see bringing inferior talent north. Hicks is the guy until Buxton. Let Mastro, Wilkin and Press battle for the fourth outfielder job.

 

3. Utility player: Esco has played almost exclusively at short this spring. Bartlett has played everywhere, including first base. I think that means they see Bartlett as the heir apparent to Carroll. Esco makes the team if Florimon can't go yet or they decide to take two back-up infielders. Santana is intriguing, but he needs more seasoning.

 

4. Catcher: Gardy has basically said they brought Suzuki in to mentor Pinto. He can't do that if Pinto is in AAA. I look for a fairly even split this year, with Suzuki getting more starts early and Pinto getting more starts late. Fryer only makes the team if they decide to take three catchers or in the event of an injury. Hermann is a AAAA player.

 

5. Right field/DH: Gardy has been effusive about Parmelee. He might get that third shot. But don't count out Arcia making the team as the left fielder with Willingham sliding into DH. Kubel's bat looks S-L-O-W. He might be D-O-N-E.

 

6. Bullpen: Both Antony and Anderson have spoken of Guerrier as a possibility for opening day. That's the only surprise. Otherwise, I don't see a reason to change it from August last year.

[TheLeviathan]

It's certainly not crazy to think that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks & Gibson could continue to develop in AAA for at least a few months.

 

I'll still have hockey to watch through the bulk of June right?

[gocgo]

[h=2]Worley says wind affected his pitches.[/h]Well, I guess I would buy it...if the guys that came after him had the same issues. Note to self: When I have a bad day at work, don't blame exterior factors, even if the exterior factors did come into play. Just take my lumps and say that I didn't make the necessary adjustments to succeed.

[Oxtung]

Taking Hicks north last year was not a mistake in anything but hindsight. He was just as likely to succeed as fail. This should not be used as a reason to stop giving young players a shot.

 

There were many people that predicted the nightmare that was Hick's 2013 season (well ok...maybe not that bad). There was no hindsight needed. It was pretty obvious that if Hick's couldn't hack it, and there were good reasons to believe he wouldn't be capable, the Twins were in serious trouble. I actually think that is why the Twins went so hard after FA's this offseason. IMO, Suzuki and Pelfrey were brought on as a direct result of the poor planning for the outfield last offseason.

 

I do agree with you that Hick's 2013 campaign should not determine the placement of other players, though it should be a warning that ST stats mean little to nothing.

 

I agree on Pinto for sure. Give this kid 2 pitchers to catch and a spot in the lineup the other two days. He is going to learn by playing up here and interacting with Suzuki. I am on the fence in Gibson, but he is 27 years old. Hicks probably could use a little confidence down in AAA.

 

This doesn't change your point at all but Gibson will be 26 this entire season.

[jokin]

This doesn't change your point at all but Gibson will be 26 this entire season.

 

Not when he opens for the World Series!

[jokin]

When Sano got hurt, that pushed the parade back to 2016 according to some. If Meyer and May fail we have no option but to buy expensive FA pitchers until 2018. I'm considering petitioning the board to see if I can join the other side.

 

Welcome to the dark side....on a provisional basis, of course:s-bluecap:.

 

And look at the bright side of being a dark sider, we might go 4 straight years running all the way to 2018 with bragging rights for the #1 farm system in all of baseball. Yippeee.

[highlander]

I hate the idea that Pinto won't be coming north with the team. I see zero upside for Fryer/Herrmann and a real need to develop Pinto.

 

I agree with the status on the OF. But I'm really hoping Hicks makes the squad and starts in CF. Need his defense, and I think he'll adjust as a hitter, given the time.

 

i look for hicks to be a solid major league contributor this year! push for 20 big fly's 280 BA and quality leather in the field

[Thrylos]

I have no idea why Florimon (his bat is weak, Escobar is much better with the bat and pretty close in fielding if not even better. Gotta start a Free Eduardo Escobar movement one of these days) and Fien (he has an option and has been pitching over his head last season) should be givens.

 

Also Fryer gives this team zero that Pinto or even Herrmann (who has much more versatility) does not. Fryer's 40-man roster spot should be the first or second (paging Mr Raley) that should open.

 

As far as pitching goes, I have this feeling (and maybe because his name has been mentioned in the Philly area, and the Phillies are kinda slated to go with Jeff Manship as their fifth starter - yes THAT Jeff Manship) that Correia (and/or Worley, even though I did not hear anything about him) for that matter will get traded, opening a spot in the rotation for Gibson plus one, which might not be a bad thing.

 

Also, Presley is way far removed from being a lock. He is out of options, but the Twins have many options in addition to him...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

^ and I just read that Cole Hamels has said his arm doesn't feel right. Ouch. Again, there might not be a better time to trade Correia than right now.

[howieramone1406390264]

^ and I just read that Cole Hamels has said his arm doesn't feel right. Ouch. Again, there might not be a better time to trade Correia than right now.

 

I have no idea if this is the right time, but the point is Correia is very tradable, and the notion that our young starting pitchers are being blocked is silly.

[shs_59]

I hate the idea that Pinto won't be coming north with the team. I see zero upside for Fryer/Herrmann and a real need to develop Pinto.

 

I agree with the status on the OF. But I'm really hoping Hicks makes the squad and starts in CF. Need his defense, and I think he'll adjust as a hitter, given the time.

 

 

jmlease1

 

NO

 

and

 

NO

 

.

 

You just contradicted your'self by saying "I see a real need to develop Pinto." In which right before that you stated that You Want Pinto to make the 25 man roster out of spring.

[jmlease1]

jmlease1

 

NO

 

and

 

NO

 

.

 

You just contradicted your'self by saying "I see a real need to develop Pinto." In which right before that you stated that You Want Pinto to make the 25 man roster out of spring.

 

since I also said that I'd want Pinto playing in no less than a 50% split with Suzuki, I don't think I've contradicted myself. I see a need to develop him as a MLB catcher, so sit on him in the minors because Gardy would rather have a second catcher who is more advanced defensively and can't hit his weight.

 

And why not Hicks? He's already the best defensive OF with a realistic chance to make the squad (Buxton isn't going to play in MLB this season, period) and this team needs guys in the PF who can cover some ground, especially if Arcia, Willingham, Parmelee, or Kubel spend extensive time out there in the corners.

[mudcat14]

Mark my words. Colabello is gonna play his way onto the roster!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I have no idea if this is the right time, but the point is Correia is very tradable, and the notion that our young starting pitchers are being blocked is silly.

 

Hopefully the free agent signings light a fire under those 3 or 4 guys we are all arguing about. I prefer to see Gibson win the last spot, regardless of options. Worley's gonna have to turn the page after today and try again next time out. With Diamond, your guess is as good as mine.