2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Fatt Crapps]

I'm ok with a hitter.....they do play 150 times a year, and it's not like the minors are stocked with sure fire hitters. I'd also be ok with a pitcher.....so ya, that was a useful post.

 

http://www.hnydt.co/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/gc1.gif

[Jeremy Nygaard]

With no consensus #5, I'm curious to see if the Twins would cut a deal and save some money. There are a lot of pitchers... and being able to spend extra in Rd 2-10 (and later) might be more appealing now than ever.

[cmb0252]

Callis and Mayo are answering draft questions on Tweeter.

 

Will Twins miss out on 4 player top tier?

Callis: may not get a shot at Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Hoffman. Jackson is still a very good option at 5.

 

Who are Twins looking at if Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek are off the board, besides Jackson?

Mayo: Nola, Gordon.

 

How is Beede?

Callis: Beede less consistent recently, not impossible he could fall out of top 10 with quality of arms available.

 

Does Nola have front line guy stuff, or more 3/4 SP?

Mayo: Maybe No.2/VG No. 3? Plus pitch ability with good stuff.

 

Can Beede move higher than 6-10?

Mayo: right now, I don't see him hitting top 5, but way to go still.

 

Who rates better pre draft between Gordon and JP Crawford?

Callis: almost identical, really. Gordon better on mound!

[nicksaviking]

I'd flip out if the Twins took Nola. They're supposed to be done with this low ceiling crap.

 

I don't think they will, they do appear to value upside in their 1st round picks, though the Eades pick in round two last year gives me a little pause.

[gunnarthor]

I'd flip out if the Twins took Nola. They're supposed to be done with this low ceiling crap.

 

I don't think they will, they do appear to value upside in their 1st round picks, though the Eades pick in round two last year gives me a little pause.

 

In fairness to the Twins, Callis/Mayo has Nola the #6 draft prospect. And Johnson has drafted ceilings fairly consistently, even with risks about control or injuries (Gibson, Hunt, Bullock etc). In fact, I think Wimmers might be the only real "safe" pick he made and that was a pretty late first round pick.

[maxisagod]

With no consensus #5, I'm curious to see if the Twins would cut a deal and save some money. There are a lot of pitchers... and being able to spend extra in Rd 2-10 (and later) might be more appealing now than ever.

 

If they take Weaver, they could save around a million, use that to bring in hard high school signs over the next several picks.

[cmb0252]

I'd flip out if the Twins took Nola. They're supposed to be done with this low ceiling crap.

 

I don't think they will, they do appear to value upside in their 1st round picks, though the Eades pick in round two last year gives me a little pause.

 

I would also be very....very disappointed if they took Nola. I personally have him 13th on my board. If the Twins are going to take a 6'2 pitcher at #5 with no projection give me Holmes. Not only does he have a better delivery but two pitches that are 65+.

[twinsfanstreif]

I'm intrigued by Kyle Freeland, he's shooting up draft boards and shutting down opponents. What he's doing reminds me a lot of Kyle Zimmer a few years ago (interestingly the 5th pick that year and also a Kyle). After doing some YouTube scouting he reminds me a lot of a left handed Zimmer with an extra 2 seamer. Anyone have any thoughts on him?

 

On a side note think about if we had drafted Zimmer and took Freeland this year, then in a few years we would have had the killer Kyles (Gibson, Zimmer, and Freeland), that would have been fun......

[twinsin17]

I would be fine with Freeland, if his last two years were better he would be receiving a lot more buzz. He dominated the Cape and has been unhittable this spring. I have to think the Twins like what they see with him (Control? Check. Misses bats? Check.) and are giving him strong consideration. As another poster proposed this could be a lower cost strategy and allow the team to pick some higher ceiling HS arms later in the draft.

[cmb0252]

I'm intrigued by Kyle Freeland, he's shooting up draft boards and shutting down opponents. What he's doing reminds me a lot of Kyle Zimmer a few years ago (interestingly the 5th pick that year and also a Kyle). After doing some YouTube scouting he reminds me a lot of a left handed Zimmer with an extra 2 seamer. Anyone have any thoughts on him?

 

On a side note think about if we had drafted Zimmer and took Freeland this year, then in a few years we would have had the killer Kyles (Gibson, Zimmer, and Freeland), that would have been fun......

 

I don't see the comparison. One is lefty while one is a righty. One is a freak athlete while the other is average. While they both are draft risers it is for different reasons. Zimmer had, has, significantly better "stuff" then Freeland but not the control. Zimmer has ace potential while Freeland has #2 potential but a better chance to reach it. If you get a #2 pitcher at #5 in the draft not only would it not be a bad thing but a success.

 

While I wouldn't be upset with Freeland but I would not be excited. I personally have 9-10 prospects ahead of him. Also, I'm not sure if you would get much if any of a discount taking him #5.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I had Freeland in the mix for #5 in my last Draft Preview.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not terribly excited about Nola, but he wouldn't be the worst pick there. I think I'd rather have one of the big 5 that fell (even if that's Hoffman due to injury) or Freeland/Gordon right now over Nola... I do think that there's something worth saying about getting someone who can sign under slot here (unless someone else does that above them). Freeland might be the BPA who could be signed for a bit under slot allowing them to bring home a high ceiling high school arm in the second. Not a bad idea.

[twinsfanstreif]

I don't see the comparison. One is lefty while one is a righty. One is a freak athlete while the other is average. While they both are draft risers it is for different reasons. Zimmer had, has, significantly better "stuff" then Freeland but not the control. Zimmer has ace potential while Freeland has #2 potential but a better chance to reach it. If you get a #2 pitcher at #5 in the draft not only would it not be a bad thing but a success.

 

While I wouldn't be upset with Freeland but I would not be excited. I personally have 9-10 prospects ahead of him. Also, I'm not sure if you would get much if any of a discount taking him #5.

 

Actually if you watch the tape (from college) they have similar a delivery and their "stuff" is similar, yes Zimmer is a better athlete but that's not a huge issue for pitchers. I see Freeland with more control, an extra pitch, and not quite the top end velocity. The slider and change are very similar. That's just my observations though

[cmb0252]

Actually if you watch the tape (from college) they have similar a delivery and their "stuff" is similar, yes Zimmer is a better athlete but that's not a huge issue for pitchers. I see Freeland with more control, an extra pitch, and not quite the top end velocity. The slider and change are very similar. That's just my observations though

 

Keith Law's scouting report for Zimmer (#10 prospect to start the year):

 

"Zimmer will show you two 70-grade pitches in addition to his 93-97 mph fastball -- a yellow hammer curveball with depth and angle, and a mid-80s changeup with great arm speed and some late action to it. He's an outstanding athlete, as you might expect from a converted position player, and has less mileage on his arm than most college products.

He does use a fourth pitch, a below-average slider that he needs to junk or at least limit to just a few pitches a game....

Zimmer finished his season on fire, punching out 63 and walking eight in his last eight starts of the summer, half of them after a promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and as long as his shoulder is happy he should move quickly to Triple-A. He's the future ace the Royals have been trying to develop since they traded Zack Greinke."

 

While Freeland has a better mix of pitches and command he doesn't have a single one that is a potential 70 pitch. Zimmer has 2. Also, Zimmer's main secondary pitch is a big curve. You could definitely be right about the delivery. I haven't seen Zimmer pitch in a year.

 

On a different note....how lucky are his parents for having two potential top 10 pick sons? I'm a huge fan of younger brother Bradley Zimmer. Wish he had at least one plus-plus tool so I could make a legit argument that the Twins should draft him at #5.

[Lonestar]

I'm not sure it's fair to compare a 22-year-old with 1.5 years of professional development with a 20-year-old with 0 professional development.

 

The scouting reports I have read say that Freeland flashes a 70 slider. "Flashes" vs "Shown"? It certainly has potential to be a Plus Plus pitch.

 

K. Zimmer was the best college pitcher available at #5. Freeland will likely be the best college pitcher available at #5.

[Mike Sixel]

Take the BPA, don't try to save money and MAYBE use that later in the draft to MAYBE sign a guy you MAYBE otherwise might not be able to (some 30+ picks later).

[gunnarthor]

I agree with Mike. Take BPA even if that's a HS short stop. (I hope it's not). I'm really intrigued by Hoffman. He'll miss a few starts but then make a few before the draft. If he doesn't have any set backs in those starts, the Cubs will have a real tough decision to make between him and Jackson. The Cubs system is absolutely loaded with hitters right now - I think they have 4 bats in most top 50 lists. Earlier this season they were linked to Beede but he has been less than impressive lately. I think they'd jump at a healthy Hoffman leaving us with Jackson.

[markos]

Take the BPA, don't try to save money and MAYBE use that later in the draft to MAYBE sign a guy you MAYBE otherwise might not be able to (some 30+ picks later).

 

I agree. This is not the year for the Twins to try to play games with bonus pool money. There are too many teams that are in a much better position. The following teams all have multiple picks between the #5 and #46, AND have have more money to spend overall.

 

1) Mia - $14MM - (#36, #39, #43)

2) Hou - $13MM - (#37, #42)

3) Tor - $9.5MM - (#9, #11)

4) KC - $8.5MM - (#17, #28, #40)

5) Col - $8MM - (#8, #35)

6) Cle - $8MM - (#21, #31, #38)

7) Mil - $7.5MM - (#12, #42)

 

All of those teams are in a much better position to pick someone who is falling. Additionally, the Cubs and White Sox both pick before the Twins, and any money they save on their top pick could be used again for the second round pick. It is interesting how much bonus pool money was saved in the top few picks last season. Houston signed Appel for $1.44MM under slot, and Colorado signed Gray for $826K under slot. That is some fairly significant savings that they could distribute later in the draft. If Houston pulls the same move again (and they should have some idea of the signing demands of whomever they draft), they could easily give top-10 money to the #37 pick, and probably top-5 money if they also pull from their #42 slot.

 

Long story short, I don't see how there will be any players available at #46 that will be worth going significantly overslot on. Any top-10 or top-15 talent that falls will be picked by some other team before he reaches the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

Excellent analyis markos.

[Willihammer]

Can we say that Freeland has lesser stuff? Here is a report from his 4/4 start against Charlotte

Freeland’s mid-80s slider was at least a plus offering, flashing at least a full grade higher. He complemented his slider with a 79-82 mph curveball that was also an above-average offering. His command of his secondary stuff was superb, as more than 80 percent of his offspeed stuff went for strikes, with 16 swinging strikes, and he located his breaking stuff to both sides of the plate. Freeland, who entered college with both a slider and curveball, used his slider as his out pitch.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-evansvilles-kyle-freeland/

 

Again, without a denominator we can't figure exact whiff rate. But he threw 97 pitches in that start according to this: http://www.gopurpleaces.com/boxscore.aspx?path=baseball&id=5782

 

How many offspeed pitches could he have thrown, esp. if he works off his fastball so much - 50? 40?

 

I think its safe to say he's getting whiffs at a high rate on the slider and maybe curve too.

 

I do question the fastball though. If he works so heavily off his fastball and only gets 6 whiffs in a start - that's not a super high percentage. He does get a lot of ground balls with it. In fact he hasn't allowed one triple or home run on the year. Funny thing about this report - Longnecker says "his fastball was very loud, as his high spin rate produced an audible cutting through the air." Well, if that was the cutter, ok you want high spin. But if you want to get ground balls on a 2 seemer you want as little spin as possible to get the most sink.

[cmb0252]

Can we say that Freeland has lesser stuff? Here is a report from his 4/4 start against Charlotte

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-evansvilles-kyle-freeland/

 

Again, without a denominator we can't figure exact whiff rate. But he threw 97 pitches in that start according to this: http://www.gopurpleaces.com/boxscore.aspx?path=baseball&id=5782

 

How many offspeed pitches could he have thrown, esp. if he works off his fastball so much - 50? 40?

 

I think its safe to say he's getting whiffs at a high rate on the slider and maybe curve too.

 

I do question the fastball though. If he works so heavily off his fastball and only gets 6 whiffs in a start - that's not a super high percentage. He does get a lot of ground balls with it. In fact he hasn't allowed one triple or home run on the year. Funny thing about this report - Longnecker says "his fastball was very loud, as his high spin rate produced an audible cutting through the air." Well, if that was the cutter, ok you want high spin. But if you want to get ground balls on a 2 seemer you want as little spin as possible to get the most sink.

 

I believe you definitely can but I'm not a professional scout so feel free to disagree. Part of the fun of following the draft/prospects is building your own board and discussing how you got there. Even if we all had the exact same information we might not reach the same opinion. My info points to Zimmer and Freeland being nothing alike but maybe your info does.

[cmb0252]

I agree. This is not the year for the Twins to try to play games with bonus pool money. There are too many teams that are in a much better position. The following teams all have multiple picks between the #5 and #46, AND have have more money to spend overall.

 

1) Mia - $14MM - (#36, #39, #43)

2) Hou - $13MM - (#37, #42)

3) Tor - $9.5MM - (#9, #11)

4) KC - $8.5MM - (#17, #28, #40)

5) Col - $8MM - (#8, #35)

6) Cle - $8MM - (#21, #31, #38)

7) Mil - $7.5MM - (#12, #42)

 

All of those teams are in a much better position to pick someone who is falling. Additionally, the Cubs and White Sox both pick before the Twins, and any money they save on their top pick could be used again for the second round pick. It is interesting how much bonus pool money was saved in the top few picks last season. Houston signed Appel for $1.44MM under slot, and Colorado signed Gray for $826K under slot. That is some fairly significant savings that they could distribute later in the draft. If Houston pulls the same move again (and they should have some idea of the signing demands of whomever they draft), they could easily give top-10 money to the #37 pick, and probably top-5 money if they also pull from their #42 slot.

 

Long story short, I don't see how there will be any players available at #46 that will be worth going significantly overslot on. Any top-10 or top-15 talent that falls will be picked by some other team before he reaches the Twins.

 

Great write up. Definitely agree.

[cmb0252]

Callis and Mayo took a crack at the top 10 and both ended up having the Twins draft Jackson. It was one of four picks they agreed on. Here is the link:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mlbpipelines-first-year-player-draft-experts-update-top-10-draft-projections?ymd=20140430&content_id=73746266&vkey=news_mlb

[Mike Sixel]

They have Gordon going only 2 picks later......not that I'm saying the Twins should take him.....

[cmb0252]

They have Gordon going only 2 picks later......not that I'm saying the Twins should take him.....

 

Gordon is a solid prospect and he should at least be in the conversation at 5. Personally I have him in the tier below Jackson. It is interesting that both Mayo/Callis have the Phillies taking Gordon a year after drafting J.P. Crawford.

[Twins Twerp]

Gordon is a solid prospect and he should at least be in the conversation at 5. Personally I have him in the tier below Jackson. It is interesting that both Mayo/Callis have the Phillies taking Gordon a year after drafting J.P. Crawford.

 

But everybody in the majors was once a catcher, SS, or CF (even arcia for Christ sake). If they both pan out, which we all know probably wont happen, you move one to 2nd and have a plus plus double play team. Not saying you didnt already mean that cmb, just stating a point. With the length of time it takes prospects to develop, injury (tj for pitchers) you just have to go with who you feel will be best.

[maxisagod]

Gordon is a solid prospect and he should at least be in the conversation at 5. Personally I have him in the tier below Jackson. It is interesting that both Mayo/Callis have the Phillies taking Gordon a year after drafting J.P. Crawford.

 

If the draft were held today, Also assuming Hoffman is healthy, There seems to be a top tier of 4 pitchers, Followed by Jackson in a tier just below, followed by tier of guys like Gordon, Nola, Maybe Beede.

[cmb0252]

My current top 10 by tier is the following:

 

Tier 1:

1. Aiken

2. Kolek

3. Rodon

 

Tier 2:

4. Hoffman (if healthy could be moved to tier 1)

5. Jackson

 

Tier 3

6. Holmes

7. Beede (could move up or fall depending on his next couple starts)

8. Gordon

9. Zimmer

10. Freeland

[Lonestar]

Tier 2:

4. Hoffman (if healthy could be moved to tier 1)

5. Jackson

 

What if Hoffman doesn't pitch again before the draft or sucks when he does?

 

I can't remember. Would you start Jackson at catcher or move him to RF?

[cmb0252]

What if Hoffman doesn't pitch again before the draft or sucks when he does?

 

I can't remember. Would you start Jackson at catcher or move him to RF?

 

If Hoffman doesn't pitch again before the draft he would have a serious arm issue. Without knowing what it is it is hard to say. As for poor performance as long as his stuff is still top notch I would still look at taking him at 5.

 

I would explore both options but would prefer to move him to RF if his bat is as good as advertised. 65 hit, 65+ power, with a 70+ arm is a potential all star even in RF.