2014 MLB Draft Thread

[gunnarthor]

Crawford's new draft board is up:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/04/the-board-2014-volume-iii/

 

I'd be happy with Jackson, Hoffman and Beede all on the board at #5.

[gunnarthor]

Not a huge surprise but this article suggests that the White Sox are looking to take a pitcher with their #3 pick. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cws/white-sox-taking-time-to-prepare-for-draft?ymd=20140414&content_id=72047458&vkey=news_cws

[cmb0252]

Not a huge surprise but this article suggests that the White Sox are looking to take a pitcher with their #3 pick. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cws/white-sox-taking-time-to-prepare-for-draft?ymd=20140414&content_id=72047458&vkey=news_cws

 

There was an article a few weeks ago saying the cubs are also focusing on pitching (people said that last year and they still took Bryant). I wouldn't be surprised if the first 4-6 picks are pitchers. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if 8 of the first 10 picks are pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

Nick Gordon....I know, not BPA probably, but still intriguing to me. If he's 10% less "BPA" than Jackson....and you think Jackson is moving to the OF.....I think you take Gordon, since it is more than x% harder to find a legit SS than an OF.

[Twins Twerp]

Nick Gordon....I know, not BPA probably, but still intriguing to me. If he's 10% less "BPA" than Jackson....and you think Jackson is moving to the OF.....I think you take Gordon, since it is more than x% harder to find a legit SS than an OF.

 

Id rather take the pitcher over the best ss. Best ss could be a bust. At least a pitcher could be moved to bullpen. I just think adding pitching is just so hard to do unless you draft them early. I do get sick of watching florimon with the bat. He is so lost...but i havent read anything...anywhere, that has any ss worth a top 10 pick this year. The only ones ranked high are ranked there because they are ss's and not because they belong

[cmb0252]

If the draft was held today my top 5 would be Rodon, Hoffman, Aiken, Kolek, and Jackson(not in order). Seeing we pick #5 we would get one. I would be a little disappointed if we didn't draft one of them. The draft isn't today so there is plenty of time for Beede, Holmes, or Gordon to make it into that elite group.

[cmb0252]

Video of Alex Jackson's long HR yesterday. Kid can hit:

 

[gunnarthor]

I think Jackson has moved to the top of my wish list at this point.

[Willihammer]

Top 10 college performances of the last week, sorted by K%:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 779]

Name, Position, Team

IP

TBF

H

R

ER

BB

SO

K%

Kyle Freeland, lhp, Evansville

8

29

4

1

0

0

15

[TD=align: right]51.7%

Daniel Savas, rhp, Illinois State

2

8

3

0

0

0

4

[TD=align: right]50.0%[/TD]

Aaron Nola, rhp, Louisiana State

7

28

4

2

2

2

13

[TD=align: right]46.4%[/TD]

Nick Howard, rhp/3b, Virginia

2

7

1

0

0

0

3

[TD=align: right]42.9%[/TD]

Chris Diaz, lhp, Miami

6

25

6

2

2

1

10

[TD=align: right]40.0%[/TD]

Michael Cederoth, rhp, San Diego State

1

5

1

0

0

1

2

[TD=align: right]40.0%[/TD]

Carlos Rodon, lhp, North Carolina State

7.2

32

6

2

1

3

12

[TD=align: right]37.5%[/TD]

Wyatt Strahan, rhp, Southern California

7

31

2

2

2

3

11

[TD=align: right]35.5%[/TD]

Jacob Lindgren, lhp, Mississippi State

3.1

15

3

1

1

2

5

[TD=align: right]33.3%[/TD]

Austin Davis, lhp, Cal State Bakersfield

7

28

3

0

0

2

9

[TD=align: right]32.1%[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

(My guy AJ Reed comes in 11th at 30.3%)

 

Freeland is definitely on a roll.

 

But, here is a question re: Freeland vs. Rodon.

 

According to BA's week 9 roundup, Rodon threw 134 pitches. Some percentage of these were sliders (it would be nice to know how many). In any case, he got 20 whiffs on sliders in one start. Even without knowing how many sliders Rodon threw, it stands to reason that the whiff rate is pretty excellent. And further evidence of how good that pitch is.

 

Freeland however, is a command guy. So, how many swings and misses is he getting? On what pitches? and how many K's (and strikes) are looking?

 

Getting some hard numbers on swing outcomes against Freeland would help compare the two on stuff.

[nicksaviking]

Well, BA mentioned Freeland in the same "pack" as Hoffman, Beede, Nola, Fedde, and Finnegan in their Apr 10 update. And then went on to rank him at no. 9.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

 

I also need to learn more about him.

 

I'm not disagreeing that Freeland doesn't have 1st round talent, if the Twins had a 10-20 pick he'd interest me, but not at 5. Out of that pack, I have no interest in Nola, Fedde and because of his size Finnegan. Beede's falling off my wish list also.

[Willihammer]

I understand. Personally I've been following Rodon for a while but Freeland has only hit my radar in the last week or so. I just don't want to let myself be swayed by a familiarity bias. Freeland has a reputation of being a "control guy," which around here is equivalent to PTC. However I don't necessarily know if that's the case.

 

Best case scenario, Freeland has good control and swing and miss stuff. But again, as an outsider, its frustratingly difficult to make that determination because nobody gathers, or shares, those figures. How are we supposed to judge a prospect's pitches by looking at strikeout totals? That isn't very helpful.

 

If someone could tell us Freeland got, say, 10 swings and misses on his slider while throwing 30 of them, and Rodon got 20 while throwing 70 of them, who has the better slider?

 

Then, factor in the looking strikes? Who has better command of the pitch?

 

I guess we just have to trust the slow-moving industry consensus because, we don't have much choice.

 

It would be nice to have the data to maybe identify the top 10 talents who every year, drop to the 20-30 range or lower (eg. half the Cardinals rotation).

 

Just to punctuate my tangent...

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 192]

[TD=width: 64]

[TD=width: 64]Pick #[/TD]

[TD=width: 64]2013 WAR[/TD]

Wainwright

29th

[TD=align: right]6.2[/TD]

Lynn

39th

[TD=align: right]1.8[/TD]

Miller

19th

[TD=align: right]3.4[/TD]

Westbrook

21st

[TD=align: right]-0.6[/TD]

Kelly

98th

[TD=align: right]2.6[/TD]

Wacha

19th

[TD=align: right]1.7[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

 

[/TABLE]

 

Clearly the BPAs don't fall off the table in perfect order. Not even in the first round.

[twinsin17]

I think Jackson has moved to the top of my wish list at this point.

 

Diddo! Especially if Aiken, Kolek, Roden and Hoffman are the top 4 picks. This draft is so deep in HS arms that we would undoubtedly be able to pick a talented one in round 2. Jackson would be a huge addition to the system.

[nicksaviking]

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 192]

[TD=width: 64]

[TD=width: 64]Pick #

[/TD]

[TD=width: 64]2013 WAR

[/TD]

Wainwright

29th

[TD=align: right]6.2

[/TD]

Lynn

39th

[TD=align: right]1.8

[/TD]

Miller

19th

[TD=align: right]3.4

[/TD]

Westbrook

21st

[TD=align: right]-0.6

[/TD]

Kelly

98th

[TD=align: right]2.6

[/TD]

Wacha

19th

[TD=align: right]1.7

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Clearly the BPAs don't fall off the table in perfect order. Not even in the first round.

 

Ha, yeah they never do fall in order. The only guarantee is that they WILL fall to the Cardinals.

[cmb0252]

PerfectGames article: Who will go #1?

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9746

[Lonestar]

PerfectGames article: Who will go #1?

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9746

Not a mention of Jackson but Simpson talks about 9 pitchers. Obviously not all 9 are candidates 1-1.

 

Jackson got off to a relatively slow start IIRC, but he has fewer warts than Hoffman, Rodon, or even Kolek. He's #2 on my board and could be #2 on Miami's. They are relatively pitching rich and offensively deficient. If Aiken, Kolek, and Rodon go in the first 3 picks in any order, I could see the Cubs popping Jackson. I just think he's going to be gone.

 

You can at least see the concerns I have about Rodon and you get a sense of Freeland's helium.

[Kwak]

How many $MM's did the Twins commit for pitching this offseason? Was the pitching problem fixed?--or at least ameliorated? What is the probability of an 18-year old American remaining a SS? One thing we should all agree on concerning this draft--the Twins can't afford to whiff on that 1st round selection. Years with a talent-rich draft and an early (enough) slot to select are few and far between, there is no room for another BJ Garbe or Adam Johnson.

[Lonestar]

Define "whiff". Is Phil Humber a whiff? Jeff Niemann? Delmon Young? They are at least disappointments.

 

A 1-5 is a lottery ticket. By my reckoning, 30 out of the 50 top 5 picks from 2001 to 2010 busted or disappointed. That includes five 1-1's.This draft class is not as deep as 2005, yet Jeff Clement drafted at #3 that year busted.

 

If you want to minimize your chances of whiffing, you draft a hitter like Alex Jackson or Zimmer because they are less likely to break. Or a college pitcher like Aaron Nola or Kyle Freeland. Then you run into the whole risk/reward, BPA thing.

[cmb0252]

Crawford released an insider article on ESPN called: Finding Talent in Unlikely Places. He mentions Kodi Mederios of Hawaii, Jakson Reetz of Nebraska, and Scott Blewett of New York. Crawford specifically mentions the Twins and Marlins as potential 2nd round landing spots for Blewett because they value young pitchers. Blewett is a 6'6 235 lbs righty who can hit 95.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1516

[tobi0040]

How many $MM's did the Twins commit for pitching this offseason? Was the pitching problem fixed?--or at least ameliorated? What is the probability of an 18-year old American remaining a SS? One thing we should all agree on concerning this draft--the Twins can't afford to whiff on that 1st round selection. Years with a talent-rich draft and an early (enough) slot to select are few and far between, there is no room for another BJ Garbe or Adam Johnson.

 

The Twins will may add to the rotation, add some talent, and add depth but this team will never build a rotation through free agency. Pelfrey and Hughes are both buy low situations, which we feel like we got value. Nolasco has a 4.37 career ERA and cost $11M a year. The Greinke's, soon to be Scherzer and Shields are not signing with us. So my two cents says taking the best arm, if we don't feel like we are giving up much value.

[Lonestar]

Crawford specifically mentions the Twins and Marlins as potential 2nd round landing spots for Blewett because they value young pitchers. Blewett is a 6'6 235 lbs righty who can hit 95.

The Twins have had 40 picks in the first 2 rounds since 2000 and only taken 7 young pitchers. Of course two of those were Berrios and Stewart.

 

Crawford specifically mentions the Twins and Marlins as potential 2nd round landing spots for Blewett because they value young pitchers. Blewett is a 6'6 235 lbs righty who can hit 95.

Crawford has Blewett as #25 on his own board.

[gunnarthor]

The Twins have had 40 picks in the first 2 rounds since 2000 and only taken 7 young pitchers. Of course two of those were Berrios and Stewart.

 

 

 

But they've also been stocking up these last few years on intl pitchers, as well. Anyhow, I like Reetz as a second round pick. Sounds like he'll stick at catcher.

[cmb0252]

But they've also been stocking up these last few years on intl pitchers, as well. Anyhow, I like Reetz as a second round pick. Sounds like he'll stick at catcher.

 

Reetz is a solid catching prospect but I personally would be a little disappointed if the Twins didn't grab an arm in the second round. This draft is so deep in arms that it feels like you can get a first round talent arm with the 46th pick. Obviously depending on how the first round plays out this could obviously change. There are just so many HS arms I like.

[cmb0252]

Define "whiff". Is Phil Humber a whiff? Jeff Niemann? Delmon Young? They are at least disappointments.

 

A 1-5 is a lottery ticket. By my reckoning, 30 out of the 50 top 5 picks from 2001 to 2010 busted or disappointed. That includes five 1-1's.This draft class is not as deep as 2005, yet Jeff Clement drafted at #3 that year busted.

 

If you want to minimize your chances of whiffing, you draft a hitter like Alex Jackson or Zimmer because they are less likely to break. Or a college pitcher like Aaron Nola or Kyle Freeland. Then you run into the whole risk/reward, BPA thing.

 

This is a pretty solid breakdown. Personally if I'm drafting in the top 5 picks I want the most talented player. Swing for the fences! Wimmers, Gilmartin, and Hultzen were all safe/quick to the bigs picks that back fired for their clubs.

[gunnarthor]

This is a pretty solid breakdown. Personally if I'm drafting in the top 5 picks I want the most talented player. Swing for the fences! Wimmers, Gilmartin, and Hultzen were all safe/quick to the bigs picks that back fired for their clubs.

 

True. On the other hand, the draft is littered with high upside guys with 98 mph fastballs who didn't make it, either. (Hello, Shooter Hunt). And Radcliff did have some success in later rounds drafting guys like Baker (2nd), Slowey (3rd), Duensing (3rd), Swarzak (2nd), Blackburn (36th) who had limited ceilings but maybe better floors.

 

But the Twins will clearly draft whoever they think is BPA.

[Lonestar]

This is a pretty solid breakdown. Personally if I'm drafting in the top 5 picks I want the most talented player. Swing for the fences! Wimmers, Gilmartin, and Hultzen were all safe/quick to the bigs picks that back fired for their clubs.

My concern is that you confuse the safety of Wimmers and Gilmartin with the safety of Nola and (my main man) Freeland. Freeland might have some projection left, has two plus fast balls, flashes a 70 slider, and has a curve and change-up that are promising. To that, you add command, control, and pitchability. In fact, it's his pitchability that gives [me] hope for his slider, curve and change-up. And at least one pro scout has comped him to Chris Sale. Sorry, I couldn't help it.

 

Compare that to Kolek. Kolek often hits triple digits. With professional strength training and coaching, he might project to throw even harder. He has shown some feel for other pitches. But he has only faced Texas high school AAA competition and his mechanics remind me of Trevor May's. As some pundit said, you can't coach height or velocity, but there is more to it.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong to dream on Kolek or Rodon or Hoffman. I would like more information on all of these guys. As I'm sure the Twins would.

[cmb0252]

Hoffman with electric stuff today according to reports. 16 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 0 ER. His fastball sat between 95-97. Theo and Hoyer in attendance. Apparently a ton of big wigs are in attendance because Rodon is pitching an hour away.

 

Also, Law noted Kolek pitching between 94-97 in the first. I'm sure he will publish a full game report tomorrow.

[tobi0040]

This is a pretty solid breakdown. Personally if I'm drafting in the top 5 picks I want the most talented player. Swing for the fences! Wimmers, Gilmartin, and Hultzen were all safe/quick to the bigs picks that back fired for their clubs.

 

The draft is just one avenue to build a team. Drafting a safe pitcher like Nola that will likely not bust but whose ceiling is that of a #4 starter is a bad move. We can sign #4 starters like Kevin C. in free agency. Take a higher ceiling guy that could be an ace, we can't buy those on the FA market.

[gunnarthor]

Hoffman with electric stuff today according to reports. 16 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 0 ER. His fastball sat between 95-97. Theo and Hoyer in attendance. Apparently a ton of big wigs are in attendance because Rodon is pitching an hour away.

 

Also, Law noted Kolek pitching between 94-97 in the first. I'm sure he will publish a full game report tomorrow.

 

That's great to see. Right now, I'm pretty confident Kolek, Aiken and Rodon will be off the board for us. So I'd like both Hoffman and Jackson to do well so we can nab the one the Cubs don't.

[Vervehound]

The draft is just one avenue to build a team. Drafting a safe pitcher like Nola that will likely not bust but whose ceiling is that of a #4 starter is a bad move. We can sign #4 starters like Kevin C. in free agency. Take a higher ceiling guy that could be an ace, we can't buy those on the FA market.

 

in what world does 3 above average pitches with 70 command and control = a no. 4 starter? that's just nonsense. nola won't be a true ace, but he could very well be a no. 2.

[cmb0252]

BA released a very in depth look at how well top college players have done so far by the numbers. A great read.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/top-college-prospects-by-the-numbers-midseason-update/