2014 MLB Draft Thread

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have had 40 picks in the first 2 rounds since 2000 and only taken 7 young pitchers. Of course two of those were Berrios and Stewart.

 

Of course another way to look at this is The Twins have had four picks in the first two rounds since 2012 and have taken two young pitchers, Berrios and Stewart.

 

I believe recent history is a stronger indicator of future actions.

[nicksaviking]

True. On the other hand, the draft is littered with high upside guys with 98 mph fastballs who didn't make it, either. (Hello, Shooter Hunt). And Radcliff did have some success in later rounds drafting guys like Baker (2nd), Slowey (3rd), Duensing (3rd), Swarzak (2nd), Blackburn (36th) who had limited ceilings but maybe better floors.

 

They have been successful drafting that way, but you're never going to find an ace or win a WS by fielding a rotation of Baker/Slowey/Duensin/Swarzak/Blackburn. You have to go for the high upside guys, and if the probablity of them panning out is less, that just means you have to draft more of them to up your odds.

 

I'd rather draft a guy with a 10% chace of being an ace and a 50% chance of flaming out than drafting a guy with a 20% chance of being a #4 and a 40% chance of flaming out.

[cmb0252]

That's great to see. Right now, I'm pretty confident Kolek, Aiken and Rodon will be off the board for us. So I'd like both Hoffman and Jackson to do well so we can nab the one the Cubs don't.

 

Definitely great to see. I would love to see Beede and a few of the bats step up in the second half to give the Twins a few options.

[Willihammer]

BA released a very in depth look at how well top college players have done so far by the numbers. A great read.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/top-college-prospects-by-the-numbers-midseason-update/

 

I love this.

 

I attempted an adjustment of the ISO values based on park factor. Assume half the games played so far are at home. The adjustment is ((100-home park factor)/2+100)*ISO

 

Here is the revised leaderboard in descending order of adjusted ISO.

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 451]

Hitter

PA

ISO

2008-2011 Home Park Factor

Hammer's adjusted ISO

A.J. Reed, lhp/1b, Kentucky

169

0.4

97

0.406

Casey Gillaspie, 1b, Wichita State

166

0.281

91

0.293645

Rhys Hoskins, of, Sacramento State

141

0.272

86

0.29104

Aaron Brown, lhp/of, Pepperdine

154

0.261

80

0.2871

Bradley Zimmer, of, San Francisco

168

0.252

81

0.27594

Austin Byler, 3b/1b, Nevada

153

0.281

107

0.271165

Kyle Schwarber, c/1b, Indiana

158

0.25

93

0.25875

Jordan Luplow, of, Fresno State

166

0.256

98

0.25856

Connor Joe, c/1b, San Diego

183

0.244

95

0.2501

Aramis Garcia, c, Florida International

163

0.236

101

0.23482

Taylor Sparks, 3b/1b, UC Irvine

164

0.241

108

0.23136

Jeff Gardner, of, Louisville

146

0.203

83

0.220255

Mike Papi, of/1b, Virginia

166

0.202

84

0.21816

Dustin DeMuth, 3b, Indiana

131

0.204

93

0.21114

Chris Marconcini, 1b/of, Duke

175

0.202

92

0.21008

Yale Rosen, 1b, Washington State

141

0.222

112

0.20868

Sam Travis, 1b, Indiana

153

0.191

83

0.207235

Kevin Cron, 1b, Texas Christian

156

0.184

80

0.2024

Max Pentecost, c, Kennesaw State

187

0.192

99

0.19296

Matt Chapman, 3b/rhp, Cal State Fullerton

133

0.184

107

0.17756

J.D. Davis, 1b/3b/rhp, Cal State Fullerton

146

0.182

107

0.17563

Alex Blandino, 3b, Stanford

125

0.173

100

0.173

Mark Zagunis, c, Virginia Tech

222

0.169

98

0.17069

Garrett Boulware, c, Clemson

160

0.169

100

0.169

Mark Payton, of, Texas

179

0.152

79

0.16796

Brandon Downes, of, Virginia

149

0.155

84

0.1674

Taylor Gushue, c, Florida

161

0.166

103

0.16351

Michael Conforto, of, Oregon State

160

0.151

84

0.16308

Nick Torres, of, Cal Poly

162

0.162

109

0.15471

Joey Epperson, of/1b, UC Santa Barbara

144

0.156

102

0.15444

Dylan Davis, of/rhp, Oregon State

152

0.141

84

0.15228

Skyler Ewing, c/1b, Rice

182

0.149

97

0.151235

Boo Vazquez, of, Pittsburgh

156

0.146

94

0.15038

Michael Suchy, of, Florida Gulf Coast

167

0.137

84

0.14796

Trea Turner, ss, North Carolina State

162

0.143

94

0.14729

Grayson Greiner, c, South Carolina

141

0.151

106

0.14647

Austin Cousino, of, Kentucky

179

0.143

104

0.14014

Brian Anderson, 2b/3b/of, Arkansas

169

0.15

119

0.13575

Mason Robbins, of, Southern Mississippi

165

0.144

112

0.13536

Ross Kivett, 2b, Kansas State

180

0.128

96

0.13056

Derek Fisher, of, Virginia

56

0.118

84

0.12744

Hunter Cole, of, Georgia

173

0.128

109

0.12224

Dante Flores, 2b/of, Southern California

148

0.114

94

0.11742

Joey Pankake, 3b/rhp, South Carolina

149

0.119

106

0.11543

Brett Austin, c, North Carolina State

156

0.111

94

0.11433

Tanner English, of, South Carolina

145

0.095

106

0.09215

Chris Mariscal, 3b/ss, Fresno State

164

0.09

98

0.0909

Mitch Gunsolus, 3b, Gonzaga

163

0.086

90

0.0903

Ben Roberts, of, Washington State

97

0.081

112

0.07614

Mark Laird, of, Louisiana State

145

0.07

101

0.06965

Greg Allen, of, San Diego State

172

0.057

115

0.052725

Branden Cogswell, ss, Virginia

171

0.029

84

0.03132

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

[cmb0252]

Jim Callis' draft note book with notes on Aiken, Pentecost, and more:

 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140418&content_id=72515470&notebook_id=72516602&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

[nicksaviking]

Definitely great to see. I would love to see Beede and a few of the bats step up in the second half to give the Twins a few options.

 

I'd actually like to see these guys step up to give the Chicago teams a few option! I'd still prefer the Twins to get Aiken/Kolek/Rodon.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law scouted Kolek yesterday and compared him to the Pirate's Jameson Tallion. Here is what Law had to say about his stuff:

 

"Kolek threw on Thursday evening at home, about an hour northeast of Houston, and while he didn't hit triple digits, he still worked with plus velocity. Kolek was 93-97, mostly sitting 95-96, showing good two-seam life on some of the pitches, with others straightening out because he overthrew them. He throws a hard, slurvy slider that is average to above-average when he's pitching to a right-handed batter, 79-83 with sharp break and good tilt. However it gets sloppy with a left-handed batter at the plate, as Kolek tries too hard to hit the outside corner and the pitch loses its sharpness and some of its angle. He has a changeup but barely uses it -- at this level it's just doing hitters who can't catch up to 94-plus velocity a favor."

 

Link to article here:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1556

[Lonestar]

I'd actually like to see these guys step up to give the Chicago teams a few option! I'd still prefer the Twins to get Aiken/Kolek/Rodon.

I would have second thoughts about Rodon at 1-5. He and his advisor have been counting on 1-1 money for 2 years. 1-1 slots at more than twice what 1-5 does

[Kwak]

The Twins will may add to the rotation, add some talent, and add depth but this team will never build a rotation through free agency. Pelfrey and Hughes are both buy low situations, which we feel like we got value. Nolasco has a 4.37 career ERA and cost $11M a year. The Greinke's, soon to be Scherzer and Shields are not signing with us. So my two cents says taking the best arm, if we don't feel like we are giving up much value.

 

I fear you misunderstood my comment. Spending all of that money (likely not planned two years ago!) should be sufficient reason to select the best starting pitcher available.

[cmb0252]

Rodon and Weaver had solid games today but high pitch counts. Beede with another clunker. He might end up being this years Stanek.

[cmb0252]

I fear you misunderstood my comment. Spending all of that money (likely not planned two years ago!) should be sufficient reason to select the best starting pitcher available.

 

4th best starting pitcher or the best bat. I don't think it is cut and dry whom the Twins should take. Unless someone steps up I don't mind grabbing Jackson at 5. Big upside and a safer pick.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It probably depends on how the pitches break out. Rodon, Hoffman, Aiken, and Kolek are all ace potential guys, and there's a few others you can potentially throw into that mix. If they are all off the board, I'm not going to cry about Jackson as the consolation prize... I'd hope Gatewood or Gordon could force it into a choice... or another pitcher...

[Kwak]

4th best starting pitcher or the best bat. I don't think it is cut and dry whom the Twins should take. Unless someone steps up I don't mind grabbing Jackson at 5. Big upside and a safer pick.

 

"Best bat" doesn't mean better than 4th/5th/ or even 10th best pitcher. Additionaly, my point is that I believe the Twins will select a pitcher based on the evidence of a large outlay of cash for pitching. Also consider that this "stiched-together line-up" has out-performed the "purchased" staff. By far and away the drafted (and so far) inexperience Gibson has way out-performed the free agents. These evidences strongly suggest that the Twins will continue to focus on pitching in the draft--especially this draft where the pitchers have demonstrated a clear advantage.

I also think the Twins should take a pitcher.

[Lonestar]

According to Baseball America, Rodon's Friday was similar to most of his starts this season. Rodon's fastball sat 90-92 mph, touching 94 four times.

 

" ... he didn’t have command of his fastball,” North Carolina State coach Elliott Avent said.

 

[His slider] was at least a plus offering but lacked the depth and tilt of his offering last week.

 

Rodon struck out seven on the day (21.9 percent) with a 2:1 groundout-flyout ratio in eight innings.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/friday-roundup-tcu-makes-a-statement/

 

Not what I would call a solid start for a first tier draft prospect. K/BB = 2.33:1, 7.88 K/9

[Twins Twerp]

Also sounds like beede had another stinker.

[Lonestar]

I personally would be a little disappointed if the Twins didn't grab an arm in the second round. This draft is so deep in arms that it feels like you can get a first round talent arm with the 46th pick. Obviously depending on how the first round plays out this could obviously change. There are just so many HS arms I like.

Who is on your radar for the 46th pick?

[Willihammer]

Interesting article at Crawfishboxes about high school arms and overuse.

 

You see, it takes several thousand repetitions for the human body to truly establish a neuromuscular firing pattern. Now, you are asking a developing body that is increasing in height, weight, strength, muscle, and every thing else, to create a consistent neuromuscular firing pattern? A complex pattern of human movement that relies heavily on timing with an ever changing human body?

 

It's doesn't makes sense for them to do that year round. They haven't built up the consistent delivery to establish that neuromuscular firing pattern consistently enough to compete year round. I have no problem throwing year round, my issue lies with year round competition because that increases the stress because pitchers are trying to impress college coaches and pro scouts which tends to rush deliveries and attempt to throw harder.

 

 

And this from Tom Verducci:

In one of the biggest studies of youth pitchers, a 10-year prospective study published in 2011, ASMI tracked 481 pitchers between the ages of nine and 14. Researchers found that pitchers who threw 100 innings or more in a calendar year were three and a half times more likely to be injured than those who pitched less. They recommended that no youth pitcher exceed 100 innings in a year and "no pitcher should continue to pitch when fatigued."

As Fleisig said, however, "year-round baseball," which began to become popular in the 1990s, has raised the volume of competitive pitching. The most talented pitchers -- that is, the ones who typically throw the hardest -- often pitch on multiple travel teams across multiple seasons, not including their school team.

...

 

Today it is common for top pitchers to throw well more than 100 innings across 10 to 12 months. Worse, I have seen pitchers show up at college camps and showcases in the middle of winter -- trying to impress a college coach with velocity, of course -- without having pitched regularly or in competition for two months.

"And I see them at the other end, on Dr. [James] Andrews' operating table," Fleisig said. "They walk in on January 12 and say, 'I was at a showcase and hadn't thrown for two months and tried to throw as hard as I could."'

 

 

The Astros blog article notes that Aiken took the winter off, Kolek didn't. Not sure about the rest of the class.

[Lonestar]

That's one thing I like about the Kohl Stewart pick. SI has linked Jameson Taillon's TJ surgery to abuse before being drafted as a high school senior.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140415/tommy-john-surgery-high-school-pitchers-jameson-taillon/

[cmb0252]

April 18th draft prospect run down:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/04/the-rundown-april-18/

[cmb0252]

Who is on your radar for the 46th pick?

 

Because of the depth of pitching in this draft I feel the 46th pitch will be a pitcher. I really like a lot of the HS arms. Mac Marshall and personal favorite Foster Griffin are big lefties I would love to fall to the Twins. Jacob Bukauskas, Jacob Nix, and Sean Read-Foley are interesting RHPs. Kodi Medeiros and Justin Sheffield are undersized lefties with big stuff.

[the_youngster]

I am a really big fan of Sean Reid-Foley, but I dont see him going to the Twins. I think he gets picked late first round by a team like the Rays or Cardinals. If he doesn't get picked in the first round, I could see him easily going to college and becoming one of the top college pitchers for his next draft. For pick 46, I would definitely look towards Foster Griffin, Mac Marshall, Keaton McKinney, perhaps Scott Blewitt, and Grant Hockin. However, I would rank Sean Reid-Foley above them all. Jacob Bukauskus, Michael Kopech, and Spencer Adams are also good options, but may be trending too far up for the Twins in round 2.

[cmb0252]

Jim Callis on Bukauskas, Imhof, and Harrison:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140421&content_id=72923116&notebook_id=72923972&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Willihammer]

Michael Chavis hit a walk-off grand slam on the first pitch he saw in the bottom of the seventh inning Saturday, lifting Sprayberry to a 6-3 victory over Riverwood in a key Region 7AAAAA game.

http://mdjonline.com/view/full_story/24966823/article-Prep-Roundup--Chavis-slams-Sprayberry-to-win?instance=special%20_coverage_right_column

 

That's his 8th HR.

 

Could Chavis be this year's Addison Russell?

[twinscowboysbulls]

Anyone hear on Monte Harrison out of Missouri? Nebraska football recruit? How has be done this spring so far? I'm hoping he either gets drafted by us somewhere or goes to Nebraska.

[Lonestar]

Could Chavis be this year's Addison Russell?

I don't think they're comparable, Willi.

 

According to Kiley McDaniel:

He plays shortstop in high school and won't play there in the pros, but he looks quicker and flashed a plus arm that I hadn't seen over the summer. Chavis' hands are just okay and you could stick him at second base where the power really profiles, but he'll probably fit best at third.

The interesting angle on Chavis is what position he plays. Talking with some scouts at the game, I asked the group if they thought he could catch. A few of them said their club had already asked Chavis if he was open to it and he said yes (scouts love Chavis makeup, so this doesn't surprise me), but admitted he had barely tried it before. Other scouts hadn't considered it and said they thought it could work, as the quick feet, plus arm and frame all fit the typical catcher profile. One expressed concern that his hands might not be good enough, but everyone agreed there's no way to before the draft--and that Chavis will definitely put on the gear at some private pre-draft workouts so teams can see if this is a viable option.

http://mets.scout.com/2/1392968.html

 

[cmb0252]

Anyone hear on Monte Harrison out of Missouri? Nebraska football recruit? How has be done this spring so far? I'm hoping he either gets drafted by us somewhere or goes to Nebraska.

 

From Jim Callis:

 

Area scouts put Harrison's tools in the same class as those of Bubba Starling, the Kansas prep outfielder whom the Royals drafted fifth overall in 2011. Starling, who also had a football scholarship (quarterback) from Nebraska, has struggled to hit in pro ball. The switch-hitting Harrison has encouraged scouts by showing an improved swing and approach at the plate as a senior.

"His athleticism is ridiculous," a senior scouting official said. "The raw power/speed/athleticism combo, you're talking about elite level. Is he going to hit? That's the $2 million question. I feel a little bit better about Monte's bat than I did about Bubba Starling's.

"It's just that breaking ball/spin issue with pitch recognition. How do you know? How many times are you going to see him against a good right-handed slider? But his other tools are off the charts. He's explosive. You're talking about Adam Jones and guys like that."

[gunnarthor]

From Jim Callis:

 

Area scouts put Harrison's tools in the same class as those of Bubba Starling, the Kansas prep outfielder whom the Royals drafted fifth overall in 2011. Starling, who also had a football scholarship (quarterback) from Nebraska, has struggled to hit in pro ball. The switch-hitting Harrison has encouraged scouts by showing an improved swing and approach at the plate as a senior.

"His athleticism is ridiculous," a senior scouting official said. "The raw power/speed/athleticism combo, you're talking about elite level. Is he going to hit? That's the $2 million question. I feel a little bit better about Monte's bat than I did about Bubba Starling's.

"It's just that breaking ball/spin issue with pitch recognition. How do you know? How many times are you going to see him against a good right-handed slider? But his other tools are off the charts. He's explosive. You're talking about Adam Jones and guys like that."

 

Glad we don't have to make the decision on him.

[Willihammer]

I don't think they're comparable, Willi.

 

According to Kiley McDaniel:

Well, there are conflicting reports about his hands then. MLB.com says he has "terrific" hands with plenty of arm strength. Also scouts predicted Russell would move to 3B but there he sticks at SS (for the moment at least).

 

And I know high school stats are "meaningless" but Russell finished his senior year batting .368 with 7 HRs.

 

Chavis finished the regular season batting .627 with 7 HRs.

[Lonestar]

Also scouts predicted Russell would move to 3B but there he sticks at SS (for the moment at least).

I think it's matter of degree. There's a difference between thinking a guy might grow out of SS and saying he won't play there in the pros. If they dreamed he could play SS, they wouldn't talk to him about catching.

[cmb0252]

Keith Law saw Jake Bukauskus yesterday and wrote a scouting report on the 6 foot right.

 

"He's technically a high school junior, but is using a recent MLB rule change to enter the draft a year early because he's already 17, as Drew Ward did last year. And with Bukauskus hitting 98 mph regularly this spring, he has forced an industry scramble to get in and see him, because scouts don't have the history with him they might normally have with a first-round prospect. "

 

Keith law noted his fastball sat between 93-97 and hit 98 once. His slider was iinconsistent. He only threw his change up twice in game.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1601