2014 MLB Draft Thread

[twinsin17]

65 hit, 65+ power, with a 70+ arm is a potential all star even in RF.

 

I haven't seen anywhere grade Jackson's present or future tools this high (65/65/70 puts him on par with Sano) but if it is accurate Jackson would be hard to pass at 5. No pitcher available would project to have three tools that loud.

[cmb0252]

I haven't seen anywhere grade Jackson's present or future tools this high (65/65/70 puts him on par with Sano) but if it is accurate Jackson would be hard to pass at 5. No pitcher available would project to have three tools that loud.

 

I meant to put 60 for the arm not 70. Not sure what i was thinking. Mlb pipeline has his hit/power both at 60 and arm at 55. Law has his future tools at 65 hit/60 power/60 arm. Matt Garrioch suggests he has 30+ HR potential which would put his power well above 60. Here is what Crawford reported one scout had to say after seeing Jackson:

 

"I think Jackson is the best hitter in the class," an NL scout said. "He had some timing issues early in the year, but he's impressed me with the way he's made adjustments. I think you're looking at a guy who can hit .300 and give you 25-30 homers during his best seasons, and I don't see any other hitter with that kind of potential this season at either the college or high school level. I think he's going to end up in right field, and he should be an All-Star there."

This scout also suggests 25-30 HR power that would put his power tool at 65+. Maybe I'm dreaming on him but with a little work on his mechanics I can see a 65 hit/65 power RFer.

[twinsin17]

Perfect Game posted their first mock of the year...wish I had an Insider subscription to see it!

[InfraRen]

KLaw chat today:

 

[h=6]Cris E (St Paul, MN)[/h]

 

So say you're stealing seafood... how many picks until the first non-pitcher is chosen? The Phils at seven?

[h=6]Klaw (2:11 PM)

[/h]

 

I've heard Nick Gordon attached to the Twins at 5 too. I think he's the first hitter taken, and he could go anywhere from 5 to 9. Alex Jackson is a wild card but could be in the mix for some teams in the top 10. Doesn't seem like a college bat goes up there, though. Brad Zimmer would be most likely but I think he goes 12-15.

[jaspatrick]

Klaw was also asked who he'd take at 4 if Rodon, Kolek, and Aiken go in the first three picks. He didn't mention Jackson and said that with Hoffman and Finnegan on the shelf, the next two names he'd look at were Gordon and Erick Fedde, who I hadn't heard mentioned as a top five pick before.

[Mike Sixel]

He also said he's hearing the Twins connected to Gordon now, clearly he's reading my posts here

[cmb0252]

Few more Law questions:

 

Where do you see Kyle Freeland fitting into the MLB Draft? I know he wasn't on your most recent rankings, but earlier on you had mentioned him as a first round candidate. I've read some really glowing reports about him recently in other sources, so trying to get a handle.

Klaw (1:08 PM)

He came on over the last 4-5 weeks - one scout said he was a top 15 pick, then compared him to Chris Sale, which would say to me he should be the first overall pick, no? - although I know there are still concerns about him starting between the delivery and heavy use of the slider. Been up to 96 as a starter and holding low 90s through his outings.

 

Is Alex Jackson going to end up in the outfield or is there a chance he can stay at c/3b?

Klaw (1:12 PM)

I believe he'll end up at 3b/rf. I think he could catch, but the team that drafts him will likely take the Myers/Harper route.

[cmb0252]

He also said he's hearing the Twins connected to Gordon now, clearly he's reading my posts here

 

Haha, maybe. Mayo also linked Gordon to the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

Not saying you didnt already mean that cmb, just stating a point. With the length of time it takes prospects to develop, injury (tj for pitchers) you just have to go with who you feel will be best.

 

I wish it was just for pitchers

[Lonestar]

Haha, maybe. Mayo also linked Gordon to the Twins.

Do you think he would be a below-slot signing.

[Lonestar]

Where do you see Kyle Freeland fitting into the MLB Draft? I know he wasn't on your most recent rankings, but earlier on you had mentioned him as a first round candidate. I've read some really glowing reports about him recently in other sources, so trying to get a handle.

Klaw (1:08 PM)

He came on over the last 4-5 weeks - one scout said he was a top 15 pick, then compared him to Chris Sale, which would say to me he should be the first overall pick, no? - although I know there are still concerns about him starting between the delivery and heavy use of the slider. Been up to 96 as a starter and holding low 90s through his outings.

Freeland sounds a lot like Rodon to me in that they should shelve the slider in the first year in the pros and work on their change ups and possibly curves.

 

Got to love the Sale comp, but some part of that is delivery (as well as command, control, and stuff ratios).

[drock2190]

I hope we dont draft Beede. Control problems scare me, I think of Shooter Hunt. Hoffman doesnt impress me either, he should more strikeouts if his stuff is so great. Also dont like Trae Turner but looks like he slide a bit down in the mock drafts.

 

Anyone else I'm fine with thats around thats projected around the Twins slot.

[Dance with Disco Dan]

I'd like to know how the draft evaluators view Jackson's hitting ability compared to Meadows, Frazier, and Smith the top-three high school bats from last year's draft. Given that Meadows may play CF, Smith is ONLY 1b, and a Jackson may stick at C or 3b, the four clearly aren't apples-to-apples prospects. But, if only offensive ceiling and probability are considered, how does Jackson stack up? Is the lack of other premium bats in this year's draft, especially from the college ranks, creating a somewhat inflated perception of his ability? Last year, 9 of the first 14 selections were position players. This year it may be 3 or 4. If anyone has seen any analysis along those lines, I'd be interested to hear about it.

[InfraRen]

Kiley McDaniel just now on twitter:

 

@kileymcd: Last month, I mentioned the prep guys TOR was targeting, this week I said PHI/7 is on Gatewood. Now hearing MIN/5 is heavy on Nick Gordon.

[twinsin17]

Nick Gordon could be a really good player and considering our dearth of short stops and their astronomic value I'd happily get behind this choice. I have yet to read any report indicating he won't stick at short and most reports say he has the potential to be a plus fielder to go with his + to ++ arm. I've read his baseball IQ is off the charts and this off season he started to fill in his wiry 6'2" 170 lb frame with muscle, adding significantly more pop to his bat this spring. I am sure Dee's success this year has only driven his stock up in scout's eyes and Dee was a 4th rounder six years ago. Alex Jackson is no sure thing either and if we are going to roll the dice with one of them why not go with the player whose position is infinitely more difficult to fill with a capable bat (assuming Jackson moves to RF). Sign me up, I've drank the Nick Gordon Kool-Aid and it tastes pretty good.

[maxisagod]

Kiley McDaniel just now on twitter:

 

@kileymcd: Last month, I mentioned the prep guys TOR was targeting, this week I said PHI/7 is on Gatewood. Now hearing MIN/5 is heavy on Nick Gordon.

 

3rd or 4th person to mention Gordon heavy to Twins, a lot of smoke there...

[InfraRen]

Kiley also said: solid avg runner, sticks at short, average power, advanced LH bat but not super loud bat speed. very polished, amazingly so for HS.

[cmb0252]

3rd or 4th person to mention Gordon heavy to Twins, a lot of smoke there...

 

Definitely seems to be the popular name right now. Super athlete with a good bloodline. Crawford has a draft chat tomorrow so I will get in a question about Gordon/Twins to him. Here are Law's future grades for Gordon:

Hitting:50

Power: 55

Running Speed:60

Fielding Range:60

Arm:70

 

MLB.com definitely have different numbers:

Hitting:55

Power:40

Running speed:60

Fielding range:60

Arm:60

[twinsin17]

Interesting MLB rates his arm a 60 when he throws 95 on the mound. That doesn't sound right to me.

[cmb0252]

Interesting MLB rates his arm a 60 when he throws 95 on the mound. That doesn't sound right to me.

 

Definitely an odd grade. I trust Law's grade.

[kab21]

Do you think he (Gordon) would be a below-slot signing.

 

I think the Twins could go underslot by 200-500K with the guy they want if they are clearly picking in the 2nd tier. That tier of draftees would be happy to picked at a little below slot #5 since it's easy for any of them to slide to #10.

 

This would not be the case if the Twins draft the last player in a 5 player tier though.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If I had to re-rank the Twins board right now, it would go Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Gordon. I think Hoffman would be in the mix if healthy, but those five are the top 5 in my mind based on some conversations I've had.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd also not count Jackson out to the Cubs right now. But it appears the Twins are really high on him. Also, "the mix" for #5 this year looks much deeper than #4 at this point last year. I know we heard seven or eight, but I'm still hearing a pool of near 20.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Kolek was being scouted by a number of teams yesterday. The Twins Southern Scouting Supervisor was in attendance.

[InfraRen]

Kolek was being scouted by a number of teams yesterday. The Twins Southern Scouting Supervisor was in attendance.

 

I'd prefer if this scout just captures Kolek and hides him at Target Field rather than taking our chances on draft day.

[tobi0040]

I think the Twins could go underslot by 200-500K with the guy they want if they are clearly picking in the 2nd tier. That tier of draftees would be happy to picked at a little below slot #5 since it's easy for any of them to slide to #10.

 

This would not be the case if the Twins draft the last player in a 5 player tier though.

 

I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.

[Siehbiscuit]

Why is the recent draft have these top tiers that our teams keep missing on?! NFL draft is supposedly top 7 strong (Vikings draft 8th), last year's MLB draft's top tier was 3 deep, of course the Twins had the 4th pick. This year the same thing. Top Tier is 4, maybe 3 now with Hoffman banged up, but the Twins draft 5th.

[Siehbiscuit]

Also, drafting Gordon because we have a current need at SS is the wrong reason to draft a guy. He won't fill that need for at least three years, likely 4-5. If he's the BPA at 5 and the Twins want him, that's a reason to take him.

[kab21]

I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.

 

going below slot doesn't mean taking a lesser player. If it turns into a 4 player draft (I hope not) and the player that the Twins want to take knows that there is a chance that he slides to #8-10 then he is going to be interested in locking in #5 money minus 200-500K.

[markos]

I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.

 

I would hesitate to equate signing a player under slot with assuming that player was not the best player available. Looking back at the past two drafts, lots of top-20 picks signed under slot even though there was no question about the legitimacy of the pick. Case in point: Jonathan Gray was widely assumed to be a top-3 talent, but he still signed for over 800K less than slot (and only $300K more than Kohl Stewart signed with the Twins). From a negotiating standpoint, most of these players will have very little leverage once they are drafted. College pitchers and high school players in particular have very little to gain but a lot to lose by arguing over a few hundred thousand dollars on a $3+ million deal. If they drafted someone like Gordon, Jackson, Hoffman or Holmes, I would not be surprised if they were able to sign them slightly under the slot value.

 

However, I too will be extremely disappointed if the Twins used the #5 pick to draft someone in the 20+ range and signed him for significantly under slot.