Another Free Agent?

[Guest USAFChief]

An extra win is an extra win whether it's the 65th or 95th win.

 

There simply isn't a good reason to trot out a bad player at any position if you have the ability and resources to field a better player. Guys getting a free pass with the bat because they field a particular position is one of the old, bad ideas of baseball that needs to go away. Improvements should be made when and where they can (barring payroll, prospect, and future plans). Nobody should get a pass for being a subpar player and EVERYBODY should do their job (I hate the phrase "if everybody else does their jobs...", implying that eight guys have to do their jobs while the little league shortstop doesn't).

We also heard for years that Mauer was worth more since his offense came from a "non offense" position. By that logic, wouldn't getting more offense from SS count for more as well?

 

Truth in advertising...I never bought that argument about Mauer, and don't buy it about Drew now. I just want the Twins to field a better, deeper lineup that will score more runs, and SS is both an obvious place to try and a position with an obvious answer available and reasonable to acquire.

[johnnydakota]

An extra win is an extra win whether it's the 65th or 95th win.

 

There simply isn't a good reason to trot out a bad player at any position if you have the ability and resources to field a better player. Guys getting a free pass with the bat because they field a particular position is one of the old, bad ideas of baseball that needs to go away. Improvements should be made when and where they can (barring payroll, prospect, and future plans). Nobody should get a pass for being a subpar player and EVERYBODY should do their job (I hate the phrase "if everybody else does their jobs...", implying that eight guys have to do their jobs while the little league shortstop doesn't).

 

Agreeing with all most all of that statement Brock, except the part about letting a magic bean stand in your way,if he will be here in June or July ,fine is 1 thing, but not to upgrade because he might be here in 2 or 3 years is another, especially if you look at how many get injurred or struggle , then you are looking at 3-4 years .Basically the lenght of said contract

[Brock Beauchamp]

We also heard for years that Mauer was worth more since his offense came from a "non offense" position. By that logic, wouldn't getting more offense from SS count for more as well?

 

Truth in advertising...I never bought that argument about Mauer, and don't buy it about Drew now. I just want the Twins to field a better, deeper lineup that will score more runs, and SS is both an obvious place to try and a position with an obvious answer available and reasonable to acquire.

 

Offense absolutely should be adjusted for position. Getting offensive performance out of the shortstop position is far more difficult than, say, left field.

 

But that doesn't give a team license to trot out a .600 OPS player at short because "everybody else is good, he doesn't have to be". That's a lazy, bad way of assembling an MLB roster. There's no reason one position gets to be a black hole by default, especially if that doesn't have to be the case.

[twinscowboysbulls]

If we signed two guys and lost the 2nd and 3rd round picks, wouldn't we just be able to take someone risky in the 4th and pay a little

More to get them to sign rather than go to college? (Like Gonsalves) and also do that a couple other times in the draft?

[jay]

It's not just $$$, it's $$$ plus our second round draft pick. (who likely will automatically join our top 15 prospects, because of the depth of this year's draft,)

 

There has been some excellent research done on the surplus value of draft picks. The second round pick we'd have to give up is worth somewhere around an average of $3-5M in surplus value. Maybe you go with the higher end of that if the deep draft bit holds up. Comparatively, a team with an unprotected mid-1st round pick has to sacrifice average surplus value of $8-15M. That's an advantage for the Twins.

[jay]

If we signed two guys and lost the 2nd and 3rd round picks, wouldn't we just be able to take someone risky in the 4th and pay a little

More to get them to sign rather than go to college? (Like Gonsalves) and also do that a couple other times in the draft?

 

No, you not only lose the pick, you lose the draft dollars assigned to those picks as well. Teams can go up to 5% over their total draft dollar allotment while only paying a penalty for going over. Losing those picks would lower the Twins overall allotment, thus further decreasing their ability to go "over-slot" on other picks.

[johnnydakota]

If we signed two guys and lost the 2nd and 3rd round picks, wouldn't we just be able to take someone risky in the 4th and pay a little

More to get them to sign rather than go to college? (Like Gonsalves) and also do that a couple other times in the draft?

 

If you lose your draft pick , you lose the slot money that goes with it , so no

[jay]

The biggest risk with Drew is his performance and salary at the end of the deal. If you look at 2016 payroll with Drew on a 3-year deal, you're talking almost $60M locked up in Mauer, Drew, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins. You need to re-sign or replace Willingham, Correia, Pelfrey, Suzuki, Burton, and Duensing in the meantime. You also need to pay arbitration salaries to almost everyone else that is on the roster today if they're still around.

 

I haven't seen much confidence in how Drew is going to be performing come 2016. I don't want to be straddled to that situation outlined above where we're stuck with a marginal shortstop and increasing payroll demands right when we'd hope to be smack in the middle of a highly competitive window.

[ppearson50]

I would hope we could replace Willingham with Hicks, Buxton, and Arcia as our future outfield. Correia and Pelfrey with Meyer, Gibson, and eventually Stewart. Suzuki with Pinto and Stuart Turner. And this team always seems to be able to find bullpen arms so I wouldn't worry about Burton and Duensing.

 

The biggest risk with Drew is his performance and salary at the end of the deal. If you look at 2016 payroll with Drew on a 3-year deal, you're talking almost $60M locked up in Mauer, Drew, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins. You need to re-sign or replace Willingham, Correia, Pelfrey, Suzuki, Burton, and Duensing in the meantime. You also need to pay arbitration salaries to almost everyone else that is on the roster today if they're still around.

 

I haven't seen much confidence in how Drew is going to be performing come 2016. I don't want to be straddled to that situation outlined above where we're stuck with a marginal shortstop and increasing payroll demands right when we'd hope to be smack in the middle of a highly competitive window.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Oh ok, carry on. Thanks.

[Guest USAFChief]

The biggest risk with Drew is his performance and salary at the end of the deal. If you look at 2016 payroll with Drew on a 3-year deal, you're talking almost $60M locked up in Mauer, Drew, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins. You need to re-sign or replace Willingham, Correia, Pelfrey, Suzuki, Burton, and Duensing in the meantime. You also need to pay arbitration salaries to almost everyone else that is on the roster today if they're still around.

 

I haven't seen much confidence in how Drew is going to be performing come 2016. I don't want to be straddled to that situation outlined above where we're stuck with a marginal shortstop and increasing payroll demands right when we'd hope to be smack in the middle of a highly competitive window.

If 2016 is smack in the middle of a highly competitive window, what do you plan for SS in 2015? Won't 2015 also be in that window? Or is the window only one season long?

[jay]

I would hope we could replace Willingham with Hicks, Buxton, and Arcia as our future outfield. Correia and Pelfrey with Meyer, Gibson, and eventually Stewart. Suzuki with Pinto and Stuart Turner. And this team always seems to be able to find bullpen arms so I wouldn't worry about Burton and Duensing.

 

I hope so too, but every bit of history tells us at least some piece(s) of that won't pan out. I'd prefer the flexibility to supplement the roster with a free agent then (when we know exactly where it is needed) as opposed to being locked in to 2016's Drew today.

[jay]

If 2016 is smack in the middle of a highly competitive window, what do you plan for SS in 2015? Won't 2015 also be in that window? Or is the window only one season long?

 

Good question. If Florimon further proves that he needs to be replaced after 2014, the Twins have an additional year to identify/develop talent in-house or acquire someone via trade. If that doesn't work out, you have what is currently the best FA SS class in probably ever. Signing a SS next offseason, if necessary, reduces the huge risk of decline that we face in getting Drew now.

[Old Twins Cap]

Guys, Drew ain't happening. You are reading WAY too much into Gardenhire's quote. At most, the Twins are offering on an international player, a fringy Asian pitcher, a Cuban national or a rehabbing Santana. There's nothing out there that's going to provide crucial help to this team next year. They are looking at opportunities, sure, but not in the way that is being represented in this thread, IMHO.

 

Fun to talk about when it's late January like this, and COLD, but, ultimately, the Hot Stove is not going to yield much more to bank hopes on. The Twins will be better this year, and depending on young guys like Hicks, Parmelee, Plouffe, Dozier, Florimon, Pinto, and yes, Sano, they may even be fun to watch. But that does not equate to spending big bucks on Drew or Santana and losing a draft pick. Nor should it.

[Jim H]

One of the problems with the WAR debate, is the idea that plus 1 WAR actually translate to one win. The fact that Drew is has a plus 1 advantage in 2013 over Florimon means that WAR believes Drew was the better player. I don't really believe that anybody who understands WAR, really believes there is a one to one correspondence between a plus 1 WAR and an actual win. It might be more, it might be less, given that there is more than one WAR, it could be almost anything. Trying to peg the actual difference between Drew and Florimon is a tricky thing and I doubt if using one stat, even WAR, is going to tell you the actual difference.

 

What I tend to believe is that Drew's defensive value, no matter how you try to measure it, is declining. Florimon's defensive value is likely better than Drew's right now, and may increase slightly as we go forward. Since some "experts" believe Drew might not be able to stay at short much longer, that is another factor.

 

Largely, you have to believe that Drew is and will be a hugely greater value offensively at shortstop over Florimon or whoever else the Twins might be able to send out shortstop over the length of the contract, to justify signing him.

[Kwak]

The salary structure of 2016 is difficult to project, but given the present budget in the $80-85MM range can be expanded 40% and still be in the 52% of revenue parameter, I don't see the addition of an extra free agent to pose a future problem. If the plan truly was to add a quality free agent SS next year (somebody better than Drew) then waiting makes sense--but if that isn't a future commitment, then adding him now makes sense.

[Guest USAFChief]

Good question. If Florimon further proves that he needs to be replaced after 2014, the Twins have an additional year to identify/develop talent in-house or acquire someone via trade. If that doesn't work out, you have what is currently the best FA SS class in probably ever. Signing a SS next offseason, if necessary, reduces the huge risk of decline that we face in getting Drew now.

 

Who do you see them signing next offseason?

[PseudoSABR]

Drew's value to the next competitive Twins team is likely as a trading asset, not as productive player on field. Than the longterm question becomes is the price worth whatever upgrade Drew could potentially net over a high second round pick in this years draft.

[Guest USAFChief]

Drew's value to the next competitive Twins team is likely as a trading asset, not as productive player on field. Than the longterm question becomes is the price worth whatever upgrade Drew could potentially net over a high second round pick in this years draft.

I don't believe a player who will be turning 31 this year has no chance of being part of the next competitive Twins team. At least I hope not.

[jorgenswest]

As Sano, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario get to their mid 20s, the Twins need to position themselves to be competitive, they need the payroll flexibility to sign players to fill in the gaps. I don't think the window for that group opens before 2016. There is a reasonable likelihood that Drew will be a liability at SS at that time. The is a chance that Santana will be an asset. He won't get that chance if Drew has a long term contract.

 

I think most teams that are interested in Drew don't want to go beyond two years. The Twins should be in a similar position.

[beckmt]

Twins have Santana and Polanco who could be shortstops, they also will have a glut of second baseman 2 years from now(assuming Rosario pans out or maybe Polanco here). Putting an expensive Band-Aid on does not impress me. This is the year you have to find out what you have for the future and start making plans. If some of the prospects do not pan out, then you know what holes need to be filled after 2014 or 2015. Do not hand out bad contracts just to win another game or two this year.

[jokin]

The salary structure of 2016 is difficult to project, but given the present budget in the $80-85MM range can be expanded 40% and still be in the 52% of revenue parameter, I don't see the addition of an extra free agent to pose a future problem.

 

 

 

If the plan truly was to add a quality free agent SS next year (somebody better than Drew) then waiting makes sense--but if that isn't a future commitment, then adding him now makes sense.

 

Exactly right on the alleged Drew salary "risk" in the 2016 out year of a potential contract, but it's even easier to assuage all of this anxiety around here. Gobs of money comes off the books this year (at least $15.25M) and another $9+M, or likely more, comes off after 2015. If the Twins want to "spend money just to spend money", they certainly have plenty of wiggle room- they will be working off of a "base" somewhere at least $20M below the present budget base of $80-$85M.

 

And does anyone truly believe that acquiring a true quality FA SS is the future commitment course that the Twins will take? The coming SS FA "class" of 2015 was dissected in the Drew thread. Once it's thoroughly examined, and with the high likelihood that a large percentage of the "quality" SSs being extended by their existing clubs, Yunel Escobar looks like the only one that would fit in the Twins price range and age range, and the Rays have a 2015 team option on him.

[jokin]

If we signed two guys and lost the 2nd and 3rd round picks, wouldn't we just be able to take someone risky in the 4th and pay a little

More to get them to sign rather than go to college? (Like Gonsalves) and also do that a couple other times in the draft?

 

People were trotting out Swarzak as a 2nd round success story. Plenty of Swarzak-level talent in the 3rd round and later, the Twins need to be able to draft smarter for the future AND sign proven major league FA talent to play with the nearer-future top 100 prospects.

[jokin]

I would hope we could replace Willingham with Hicks, Buxton, and Arcia as our future outfield. Correia and Pelfrey with Meyer, Gibson, and eventually Stewart. Suzuki with Pinto and Stuart Turner. And this team always seems to be able to find bullpen arms so I wouldn't worry about Burton and Duensing.

 

Exactly right!

[jokin]

As Sano, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario get to their mid 20s, the Twins need to position themselves to be competitive, they need the payroll flexibility to sign players to fill in the gaps. I don't think the window for that group opens before 2016. There is a reasonable likelihood that Drew will be a liability at SS at that time. The is a chance that Santana will be an asset. He won't get that chance if Drew has a long term contract.

 

I think most teams that are interested in Drew don't want to go beyond two years. The Twins should be in a similar position.

 

The Twins are in a similar position, that's the starting hypothesis for getting this deal done. Once Boras realizes he isn't going to get 3 years, he runs out of leverage, the teams interested in him only want to go one year, hopefully Drew then falls into the Twins lap at 2 years.

[jokin]

Playoffs Drew: .344 OPS

 

SSS is totally meaningless and misses the point of the original point being made- Drew has proven he is fully healthy now, and confirmed his career-track production- he doesn't wear out as the season progresses. August and September, in large sample sizes, have been his 2 best months career-wise.

[AlwaysinModeration]

We also heard for years that Mauer was worth more since his offense came from a "non offense" position. By that logic, wouldn't getting more offense from SS count for more as well?

 

Truth in advertising...I never bought that argument about Mauer, and don't buy it about Drew now. I just want the Twins to field a better, deeper lineup that will score more runs, and SS is both an obvious place to try and a position with an obvious answer available and reasonable to acquire.

 

Chief, it seems pretty obvious to me the advantage the Twins get from having elite offense from a position like catcher. And it becomes even more obvious when Mauer moves from C to 1B. We are exchanging a Morneau-type for a Suzuki-type in the lineup.

[Guest USAFChief]

Chief, it seems pretty obvious to me the advantage the Twins get from having elite offense from a position like catcher. And it becomes even more obvious when Mauer moves from C to 1B. We are exchanging a Morneau-type for a Suzuki-type in the lineup.

Then lets counter that by exchanging a Florimon-type for a Drew-type in the lineup.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't believe a player who will be turning 31 this year has no chance of being part of the next competitive Twins team. At least I hope not.

 

And I hope by 2016 we don't have to rely on a shortstop who was good, not great, in his peak who is WELL into his decline arc of his career and making 10 million. THere is a good chance he's as bad at the end of the contract as the guy he's replacing now.

[Guest USAFChief]

And I hope by 2016 we don't have to rely on a shortstop who was good, not great, in his peak who is WELL into his decline arc of his career and making 10 million. THere is a good chance he's as bad at the end of the contract as the guy he's replacing now.

I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.