Another Free Agent?

[Craig Arko]

I see mlb.com has Trea Turner as their number five prospect in this year's draft. Curiously enough, the Twins have the 5th pick. Which obviously guaranties nothing.

 

I suppose signing Drew could buy time to develop somebody. I seriously doubt it would impact ticket sales much.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.

 

Career arcs show most shortstops are decling in defensive ability by 27 years old. There are strong trends to show he will be a subpar fielder by next year, much less two years from now. I would prefer not to make dramatic sacrifices defensively at that position. Even for significant offensive help.

 

Not to mention flush 10M on him at 34 years old. If you go around trying to fix every hole as fast as you can (one offseason), chances are you never really fix them. Just make shoddy, expensive patches.

[johnnydakota]

Well I hope we sign Garza and Diaz, then trade Correia (he had his career year ) and maybe some AAAA starters along with a reliever or 2 for more catching and middle infield prospects.

Everyone remember when most wanted Willingham moved after his career years, and we didnt? How did that work out?

[jorgenswest]

I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.

 

A graph from an aging study done by Baseball Prospectus in 2005.

 

 

Shortstops peak earlier and decline earlier. Overall, all players should be expected to decline significantly from ages 31 to 34. Drew is not an exception.

[JP3700]

I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.

 

He'll actually be 33 in 2016.

[JP3700]

Career arcs show most shortstops are decling in defensive ability by 27 years old. There are strong trends to show he will be a subpar fielder by next year, much less two years from now. I would prefer not to make dramatic sacrifices defensively at that position. Even for significant offensive help.

 

 

Shortstops defensive ability generally decline at age 27 because they rely on their athleticism, which generally starts to decline as you reach closer to 30.

 

Drew was actually rated as a very poor defender up until his age 27 season. He's been rated as a good defender ever since because he now relies on positioning and anticipation. He's also a consistent defender, who doesn't make many errors. "He makes every routine play". That's why he's been rated as a good defender from his age 27 season on.

[TheLeviathan]

He's been rated as a good defender ever since because he now relies on positioning and anticipation. He's also a consistent defender, who doesn't make many errors. "He makes every routine play". That's why he's been rated as a good defender from his age 27 season on.

 

.6 Dwar is a "good defender"? I'd call that an "ok" defender.

 

In fact, that has stayed relatively consistent his entire career. It appears you are basing "good defender" on error totals. Which I completely disagree with.

[jokin]

Career arcs show most shortstops are decling in defensive ability by 27 years old. There are strong trends to show he will be a subpar fielder by next year, much less two years from now. I would prefer not to make dramatic sacrifices defensively at that position. Even for significant offensive help.

 

Not to mention flush 10M on him at 34 years old. If you go around trying to fix every hole as fast as you can (one offseason), chances are you never really fix them. Just make shoddy, expensive patches.

 

JJ Hardy turns 32 this year, and is somewhat reminiscent to Drew....he hasn't dropped off defensively at all (2 straight Gold Gloves), he makes every play in front of him, despite what the trends said about him, as well.

 

Speaking of "fixing holes", is 4 years enough time to fix the hole left by Hardy's departure in 2010, "fast" enough?

[jokin]

.6 Dwar is a "good defender"? I'd call that an "ok" defender.

 

In fact, that has stayed relatively consistent his entire career. It appears you are basing "good defender" on error totals. Which I completely disagree with.

 

Drew actually had a better UZR and UZR/150 than Florimon in 2013.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[TheLeviathan]

JJ Hardy turns 32 this year, and is somewhat reminiscent to Drew....he hasn't dropped off defensively at all (2 straight Gold Gloves), he makes every play in front of him, despite what the trends said about him, as well.

 

Speaking of "fixing holes", is 4 years enough time to fix the hole left by Hardy's departure in 2010, "fast" enough?

 

The Twins haven't done enough to address shortstop - I've been heavily in the camp of trying to use some of the Cuban defectors as options for this. Would be much better money spent IMO.

 

As for Hardy - he's been a significantly better fielder than Drew his entire career. He hasn't started to decline yet, that's true, but exceptions (so far) prove the rule...no?

[TheLeviathan]

Drew actually had a better UZR and UZR/150 than Florimon in 2013.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

And one year's UZR means as much in this debate as how often each ate Mcdonald's last year, because one year's UZR is irrelevant.

 

I've found, in general, that dWar corresponds most frequently to quality defenders. But it, like all defensive metrics, has it's flaws. But it's still a vastly superior one-year measure to UZR.

 

I'd also add that if we've reached the point that putting Drew on a pedestal requires us to claim he's a better defender than Florimon (utterly preposterous really)...than rational discussion the matter is probably over for both sides.

[JP3700]

 

Shortstops peak earlier and decline earlier. Overall, all players should be expected to decline significantly from ages 31 to 34. Drew is not an exception.

 

You should still look at it every player individually. Drew peaked at a later age and has a unique skill set for a SS.

 

As I mentioned in an earlier post, his defense isn't tied to his athleticism. He's never been and never will be a great athlete. He relies on positioning and anticipation. Similar to Hardy and Peralta.

 

On offense he's not the usual slap hitting/no walk shortstop who, once again, rely on athleticism. He draws walks and hits for power. Skill sets that generally age better.

 

I'm not saying that he won't decline. It's very likely he will. But I also don't expect him to fall off of a cliff in two years. A realistic decline would be:

 

2014: 3 WAR

2015: 2.5 WAR

2016: 2 WAR

 

So, he's going from an above average player to a league average player. League average players still have value. Especially at $10M, which is about the going rate for league average players.

 

We're paying Nolasco $12M a year for the next four years. He's going into his age 31 season, coming off of a year where he was a league average pitcher.

[jokin]

And I hope by 2016 we don't have to rely on a shortstop who was good, not great, in his peak who is WELL into his decline arc of his career and making 10 million. THere is a good chance he's as bad at the end of the contract as the guy he's replacing now.

 

I think his bat will be better than Florimon's, not only at 33, but at 43, as well. I would hope a third year with Drew is not an issue- as he's signed for only 2, but it's demonstrable with the Twins projected payroll in 2016 that an excess $10M on the books doesn't cripple them from making further moves, whatsoever.

[TheLeviathan]

I think his bat will be better than Florimon's, not only at 33, but at 43, as well. I would hope a third year with Drew is not an issue- as he's signed for only 2, but it's demonstrable with the Twins projected payroll in 2016 that an excess $10M on the books doesn't cripple them from making further moves, whatsoever.

 

When you figure out how to let MLB allow us to have one guy field and another guy hit for the same position the whole game - let me know. Otherwise, defense and offense matter. Florimon is a vastly superior defender and a vastly inferior hitter. There are valid reasons to not want to give up defense in the name of offense.

[Thrylos]

When you figure out how to let MLB allow us to have one guy field and another guy hit for the same position the whole game - let me know. Otherwise, defense and offense matter. Florimon is a vastly superior defender and a vastly inferior hitter. There are valid reasons to not want to give up defense in the name of offense.

 

It is figured out. It is called Designated Hitter. But he usual hits for the pitcher position. Doesn't have to, though...

[jokin]

And one year's UZR means as much in this debate as how often each ate Mcdonald's last year, because one year's UZR is irrelevant.

 

I've found, in general, that dWar corresponds most frequently to quality defenders. But it, like all defensive metrics, has it's flaws. But it's still a vastly superior one-year measure to UZR.

 

I'd also add that if we've reached the point that putting Drew on a pedestal requires us to claim he's a better defender than Florimon (utterly preposterous really)...than rational discussion the matter is probably over for both sides.

 

Do you really want to go to the place where you accuse those who hold a valid different opinion as undue hero-worshipping and call the usage of opposing metrics as "irrational"? I merely pointed out you might be overrating Florimon's defense relative to Drew- because of Drew's experience at proper positioning and the ability to more consistently make the plays in front of him, UZR suggests he makes up elsewhere from the areas where he's clearly behind Florimon.

[TheLeviathan]

It is figured out. It is called Designated Hitter. But he usual hits for the pitcher position. Doesn't have to, though...

 

Somehow I don't think anyone is advocating that. Yet. But we're really going out of our way to make Drew flawless these days.

[TheLeviathan]

Do you really want to go to the place where you accuse those who hold a valid different opinion as undue hero-worshipping and call the usage of opposing metrics as "irrational"? I merely pointed out you might be overrating Florimon's defense relative to Drew- because of Drew's experience at proper positioning and the ability to more consistently make the plays in front of him, UZR suggests he makes up elsewhere from the areas where he's clearly behind Florimon.

 

Even UZR fans would tell you one year's worth of UZR is not a valid use of the stat.

 

I'm not overrating Florimon's defense. It's much better than Drew's. You are welcome to the opinion signing Drew would be smart. Saying it's because he's a better defender?

 

No, that's not valid.

[Guest USAFChief]

Drew is not an exception.

 

And BPro's graphs are not proven fact.

[jokin]

When you figure out how to let MLB allow us to have one guy field and another guy hit for the same position the whole game - let me know. Otherwise, defense and offense matter. Florimon is a vastly superior defender and a vastly inferior hitter.

 

There are valid reasons to not want to give up defense in the name of offense.

 

The problem is, there are also valid reasons- and more urgent reasons- to get more offense on a team that is coming off of a year where they scored the same amount of runs as in 1968 (The Year of the Pitcher), and to this point anyway, have actually downgraded the offense from 2013.

[TheLeviathan]

And BPro's graphs are not proven fact.

 

Well, it's a fact insofar is that is how the trends looked in that study. Does it necessarily hold for every player? Absolutely not. Drew may well survive as what he is (a roughly average/ok defender) for longer than others.

 

He also might go from "ok" to "blech" and still be on the payroll for 10 million. This would be following typical aging tendencies rather than defying them.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'm not overrating Florimon's defense. It's much better than Drew's.

 

That is opinion, not fact.

[TheLeviathan]

That is opinion, not fact.

 

The numbers indicate it's a strongly supported opinion. The opposing view isn't well supported.

 

In fact, the only support I've seen for it so far is conjecture about how well he positions himself, how his "experience" helps him (veteran savvy anyone?), and how a stat that needs multiple seasons of data has a one-year data set in his favor.

[Guest USAFChief]

In fact, the only support I've seen for it so far is conjecture...

 

The only support other than UZR, you mean, right?

[jokin]

Even UZR fans would tell you one year's worth of UZR is not a valid use of the stat.

 

I'm not overrating Florimon's defense. It's much better than Drew's. You are welcome to the opinion signing Drew would be smart. Saying it's because he's a better defender?

 

No, that's not valid.

 

I never said Drew is a better defender than Florimon, I did say that the differences that you emphasize between them are perhaps not the vast gulf that you seem to believe is the case, it's what I'm arguing is what's not valid in your case for Florimon.

 

The numbers indicate it's a strongly supported opinion. The opposing view isn't well supported.

 

In fact, the only support I've seen for it so far is conjecture about how well he positions himself, how his "experience" helps him (veteran savvy anyone?), and how a stat that needs multiple seasons of data has a one-year data set in his favor.

 

Drew may well survive as what he is (a roughly average/ok defender) for longer than others.

.

 

 

 

 

 

How does 4 years worth of UZR data value Drew? Even though he had one bad defensive year during this time- his comeback year from ankle surgery in 2012, he still ranks #10 defensively among all SS with over 3700 innings played from 2010-2013. These numbers are strongly supported, not opinion or conjecture.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=3500&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[TheLeviathan]

The only support other than UZR, you mean, right?

 

I don't mean this to offend - you've been vocal about not understanding/appreciating defensive metrics. UZR is not an effective tool for comparison based on one year's data. It is incredibly unreliable to the point of worthless. As evidenced by jokin rightly giving more context in the post after yours.

 

So no, one year of UZR is not valid support.

[InfraRen]

I had hopes that since Garza/Brewers wasn't official yet that we were trying to swoop in, but I know that's highly unlikely.

[TheLeviathan]

How does 4 years worth of UZR data value Drew? Even though he had one bad defensive year during this time- his comeback year from ankle surgery in 2012, he still ranks #10 defensively among all SS with over 3700 innings played from 2010-2013.

 

10th out of 17. I would call that an "ok" defender, exactly as I labeled him. Florimon, at least last year, played at a much higher than "ok" level.

 

The question is, does Drew as he ages, sink even further than "ok"? And, since trends indicate a strong likelihood he will, is that the kind of player you want to commit to? Maybe the immediate offensive boost would be sufficient for some. It's reasonable for others to conclude it's not.

[JP3700]

.6 Dwar is a "good defender"? I'd call that an "ok" defender.

 

In fact, that has stayed relatively consistent his entire career. It appears you are basing "good defender" on error totals. Which I completely disagree with.

 

No, I just don't look at a singular metric. I look at the three most used and accurate metrics to get the best measure of how good the player's defense is.

 

Error totals have nothing to do with it, they're already factored in to the metrics I look at.

[jokin]

Somehow I don't think anyone is advocating that. Yet. But we're really going out of our way to make Drew flawless these days.

 

C'mon Levi. Is there anyone on here that has said, in any way, shape, manner or form, that Drew is somehow flawless?

 

The main points in favor of signing him are:

the sorely-need bat,

a position of need that doesn't block a prospect,

and the fact that overpaying him if he turns out to be a bust in out-year #1 or #2 won't hurt the franchise's long-term goals of acquiring more talent in other sorely-needed areas.