Article: Twins Trade Doumit to Braves

[cmathewson]

Come now. Arcia is 21 years old. He's the youngest prospect to come up and perform at the major league level since Mauer. I think we can cut him a little slack on his first partial year in the majors.

 

Correction, he's 22. Still he had an OPS+ of 102 as a rookie after having a career minor league OPS of .915, including .955 in AA as a 21 year old and 1.020 at AAA as a 22 year old. In short, he's the best hitting prospect to land on the Twins since Morneau. By the numbers, he's even better. And he plays a decent right field.

 

Right field is not one of the positions I worry about on this team, short or long term.

[Dman]

The Twins DO need somebody with Gilmartin's skill set to be successful. From my point of view, the Twins added another candidate to the ranks of "lefthanded not overpowering". None of those guys is established as a major league starter. Now, between Diamond, Albers, Johnson, and Darnell they have added another guy with a chance. Further, he's not on the 40-man and will have options, so his "window" for establishing himself is open for a while. It wouldn't stun me at all to see Gilmartin get between 50 and 100 starts for the Twins. As a point of reference, here are four Twins starters of recent vintage and their number of starts for the Twins: Scott Baker (162), Francisco Liriano (130), Kevin Slowey (90), and Boof Bonser (60).

 

Yeah I was a little harsh and I hope Gilmartin turns out to be really good. The scouts were high on him until the injury. It is just that we seem to have so many pitchers like him or better already at AAA. We have several pitchers coming up and it looks like we might have to essentially throw away some guys which makes me question the move somewhat. I am no scout and I trust the Twins know what they are doing but it does make me question what the plan is.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Correction, he's 22. Still he had an OPS+ of 102 as a rookie after having a career minor league OPS of .915, including .955 in AA as a 21 year old and 1.020 at AAA as a 22 year old. In short, he's the best hitting prospect to land on the Twins since Morneau. By the numbers, he's even better. And he plays a decent right field.

 

Right field is not one of the positions I worry about on this team, short or long term.

 

I don't think anyone is down on Arcia... I think the joke was more regarding defense, and Arcia does have some work to do there...

 

Agree with you though on him. I think he's going to have some all star seasons as he matures. I'm looking forward to having him bat next to Sano for quite some time. A front five of Buxton, Mauer, Arcia, Sano, and Rosario is drool worthy, and that ignores potential above average contributions from Pinto, Dozier, and Hicks.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah I was a little harsh and I hope Gilmartin turns out to be really good. The scouts were high on him until the injury. It is just that we seem to have so many pitchers like him or better already at AAA. We have several pitchers coming up and it looks like we might have to essentially throw away some guys which makes me question the move somewhat. I am no scout and I trust the Twins know what they are doing but it does make me question what the plan is.

 

Some of these guys were going to be thrown away regardles. Here's the problem as I see it. Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Gilmartin, and Darnell all have in my opinion the potential to be 3/4 guys (though I think Deduno if he figures out how to control his fastball could be better). The odds of that happening are slim, but I think better than people realize, I wouldn't be surprised if one or two succeeds. With Darnell and Gilmartin, both can be kept for quite some time, but decisions are going to have to be made on Diamond, Worley, and Deduno sooner than later. The wildcard here is Gibson, who I think can be more like a 2/3 guy once he figures things out.

 

Given that the Twins will not be winning the central in 2014, I have to think that they are planning on finding a home for KC at some point. I have no doubt that several of these guys will see time due to injury and what not, but with Meyer and May coming up the pipe and certainly deserving spots, I think they Twins are keeping most of these as filler and potentially trade bait should they succeed.

[B Richard]

Correction, he's 22. Still he had an OPS+ of 102 as a rookie after having a career minor league OPS of .915, including .955 in AA as a 21 year old and 1.020 at AAA as a 22 year old. In short, he's the best hitting prospect to land on the Twins since Morneau. By the numbers, he's even better. And he plays a decent right field.

 

Right field is not one of the positions I worry about on this team, short or long term.

 

Easy there, tiger. I made no assertions about anyone, Arcia included. Though I do appreciate your diligence in digging up Arcia's minor league batting numbers. For what it's worth, Arcia played only 29 games in RF for us, while Parm and Doumit logged 68 and 32 respectively.

 

Maybe you could tell us a little bit more about their defense by going back to their minor league OPS numbers

[jay]

Which by definition should mean "Not solid whatsoever".

 

This trade is still a solid win even if the "not solid whatsoever" guy never makes a single appearance in MLB (as is true of most "prospects" anyway), so I guess I don't see how it matters unless we're just debating the merits of our prospect evaluation.

[stringer bell]

Ok, regarding Deduno, Worley, and Diamond, they are all out of options and it is a given that all of them won't be in the rotation this April. As was speculated on the blog "Moves to Come?" by J-Dog Dungan, I would expect one or two of those three to be moved. Trading for one of Houston's backup catchers might be a win for both sides--perhaps Diamond for Corporan and a non-roster prospect? It also wouldn't surprise me to see Samuel Deduno start the season on the Disabled List, perhaps even the 60-day. The acquisition of Kris Johnson and now Gilmartin makes Albers and Diamond more expendable.

[TheLeviathan]

Correction, he's 22. Still he had an OPS+ of 102 as a rookie after having a career minor league OPS of .915, including .955 in AA as a 21 year old and 1.020 at AAA as a 22 year old. In short, he's the best hitting prospect to land on the Twins since Morneau. By the numbers, he's even better.

 

And this makes him a good defender....how?

 

Arcia had all the look of a future DH when he was in the field last year. I hope for a dramatic improvement, but what we saw was awful.

[jokin]

Correction, he's 22. Still he had an OPS+ of 102 as a rookie after having a career minor league OPS of .915, including .955 in AA as a 21 year old and 1.020 at AAA as a 22 year old. In short, he's the best hitting prospect to land on the Twins since Morneau. By the numbers, he's even better. And he plays a decent right field.

 

Right field is not one of the positions I worry about on this team, short or long term.

 

Sorry, but not by any stretch of the imaginiation does Arcia play a decent right field. To put things in their proper perspective, Delmon Young was a better RF than Arcia. (And Delmon only got worse in the OF as the years went by, not better).

[big dog]

Sorry, but not by any stretch of the imaginiation does Arcia play a decent right field. To put things in their proper perspective, Delmon Young was a better RF than Arcia. (And Delmon only got worse in the OF as the years went by, not better).

 

 

My impression after watching way too many Twins games last year is that Arcia was perhaps a little better than Doumit in the OF, but that's about it. I've seen worse (I lived in the Bay Area when Canseco and Chili Davis were both playing left field for their teams), but not many. He's got a ways to go to be adequate.

[Major League Ready]

Ok, regarding Deduno, Worley, and Diamond, they are all out of options and it is a given that all of them won't be in the rotation this April. As was speculated on the blog "Moves to Come?" by J-Dog Dungan, I would expect one or two of those three to be moved. Trading for one of Houston's backup catchers might be a win for both sides--perhaps Diamond for Corporan and a non-roster prospect? It also wouldn't surprise me to see Samuel Deduno start the season on the Disabled List, perhaps even the 60-day. The acquisition of Kris Johnson and now Gilmartin makes Albers and Diamond more expendable.

 

My guess is that they are already convinced Deduno will be on the 60-day DL. Worley or Diamond is the #5. The other moves to the pen, is traded or DFAed. I am not sure why this is getting so much play orther than it is an interesting situation.

[howieramone1406390264]

My impression after watching way too many Twins games last year is that Arcia was perhaps a little better than Doumit in the OF, but that's about it. I've seen worse (I lived in the Bay Area when Canseco and Chili Davis were both playing left field for their teams), but not many. He's got a ways to go to be adequate.

 

I don't disagree, but the 2-3 scouting reports I've seen project he'll be no worse than average, and the Twins won't limit a 22 year-old to DH anytime soon. I think he'll be fine once he settles in at LF or RF.

[jokin]

I don't disagree, but the 2-3 scouting reports I've seen project he'll be no worse than average, and the Twins won't limit a 22 year-old to DH anytime soon. I think he'll be fine once he settles in at LF or RF.

 

Bill Smith thought the same thing about Delmon Young at age 22.

 

Delmon's dWAR/UZR history:

 

Age 20 with the Rays: 0.2....5.7

Age 21 with the Rays: -0.6...-8.0

Age 22 with the Twins: -1.9.....-20.2

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sorry, but not by any stretch of the imaginiation does Arcia play a decent right field. To put things in their proper perspective, Delmon Young was a better RF than Arcia. (And Delmon only got worse in the OF as the years went by, not better).

 

I have a hard time believing Delmon was a better defender than Arcia.

 

But yeah, Arcia's pretty bad out there. Brutal at times. Nothing close to "decent" at this point, though he's still young.

 

But in all likelihood, he has DH written all over him.

[kab21]

I don't disagree, but the 2-3 scouting reports I've seen project he'll be no worse than average, and the Twins won't limit a 22 year-old to DH anytime soon. I think he'll be fine once he settles in at LF or RF.

 

Usually the extent of those scouting reports is referencing that Arcia played some CF in rookie ball. I think the visual observations from his time in the majors are a lot more relevant.

[howieramone1406390264]

Usually the extent of those scouting reports is referencing that Arcia played some CF in rookie ball. I think the visual observations from his time in the majors are a lot more relevant.

 

The ones I googled didn't reference CF or rookie ball and in fact were both approximately a year old. I agree visual observations are relevant, particularly if one has a basic understanding of the learning curve most young players face.

[TheLeviathan]

The ones I googled didn't reference CF or rookie ball and in fact were both approximately a year old. I agree visual observations are relevant, particularly if one has a basic understanding of the learning curve most young players face.

 

Linking to these scouting reports would better facilitate conversation and validate your position.

 

how often do scouts go watch a guy? Assessing defensive value takes a lot of data points which requires far more observation than swing or pitch mechanics because of the lack of chances. We who suffered through watching this year saw much more than many scouts. Less expertise to be sure, but far more relevant data.

 

hopefully he gets better, but his instincts, range, and athleticism were all awful last year.

[cmathewson]

I didn't see it. But perhaps I was blinded by his bat to ignore his defensive lapses. I certainly wouldn't give up on him after a half a season in any case.

[kab21]

I didn't see it. But perhaps I was blinded by his bat to ignore his defensive lapses. I certainly wouldn't give up on him after a half a season in any case.

Who is giving up on him?

 

People are just saying that he's a bad defender.

[jokin]

Who is giving up on him?

 

People are just saying that he's a bad defender.

 

Exactly right. No one as far as has I know who has posted here has said anything about giving up on him. If anything, his debut in 2013 was refreshing, from yet another new, very aggressive. left-handed batter who was entirely undaunted about the supposed "unfairness" of Target Field to lefties.

 

It's OK to acknowledge that he's a bad defender, a bad defender who appears to have bad instincts, indicating there isn't much room for improvement. In an OF with 2 other Gold Glove-caliber stud defenders, it won't make virtually any difference, particularly if he turns out to be the premium hitter we all think he can become.

 

And nothing wrong if/when he ends up in the rotation the way the Twins usually play their big hit/no field crew, Dhing for half of his ABs.

[cmathewson]

OK, well, in another thread, there were people giving up on him because, it seems, he will never be a good defender. I saw him take a few bad routes and get a few slow jumps. I also saw him make a couple of really good plays out there. So I don't think he's hopeless. Even if he's below average, he'll be a good player out there because of his bat. Perhaps his long-term position is DH. I'm not ready to say definitively that it is.

 

A lot of teams have sub-par defenders in right field. The main thing that keeps those guys employed is their bats. His bat is special.

[TheLeviathan]

OK, well, in another thread, there were people giving up on him because, it seems, he will never be a good defender. I saw him take a few bad routes and get a few slow jumps. I also saw him make a couple of really good plays out there. So I don't think he's hopeless. Even if he's below average, he'll be a good player out there because of his bat. Perhaps his long-term position is DH. I'm not ready to say definitively that it is.

 

A lot of teams have sub-par defenders in right field. The main thing that keeps those guys employed is their bats. His bat is special.

 

No one wants him gone, just pointing out part of his game that's subpar. In the other thread no one is giving up on him either, you just took another poster 100% on his word. I'd suggest the source there wasn't intending to relay an honest interpretation of the remarks.