2014 win predictions

[Marta Shearing]

I'm going with 85 and I'm not embarrassed to say it. A rotation including Meyer, Hughes, Nolasco, Correia, and hopefully improved Gibson. An all-star closer. I think Sano's gonna produce. The lightbulb will come on for Hicks. Arcia will improve. Willingham's playing for his next contract. Mauer's gonna play 155 games. Pierzynski will produce and provide leadership. Dozier will continue to improve. Heck, Plouffe might even decide to get serious about his career, be a more consistent hitter, and play a serviceable RF. And then there's the other blast from the past Bartlett. Can the 2008 Bartlett re-emerge? Should be interesting!

[ND-Fan]

My guess would be from 72 to 76 wins next year but things will really start to look up I think by end of year. I think we will have seen Sano, Hicks again, Myer, and maybe Buxton by end of year. Also I think Arcia will begin to figure out how to hit in majors on more consistent basis, and Dosier become more of quality second baseman. I also think the Twins probably will trade for prospect shortstop or very young shortstop before the year is over to set table for 2015. Also we should get idea if we have catcher of the future or will need to aquire one for coming years. I also think some of prospect pitchers of last coupe years are going to step up to now since there's less positions available with these signings. This is the beginning of turn around but still think were at least one to two years away from making run for the playoffs.

[2wins87]

I'm optimistic, but I'm not 85-wins optimistic. I'll go with 79 wins

[Thrylos]

Let's talk about it in early March. Still long ways to go this off-season.

[Brandon]

Right now we have the rotation and bullpen to win 82-88 games but the offense to win 65- 70 on a good year. I am gonna go with 75 at this point as next season still has a lot of development to do. The key to our record next year is obviously going to be our offense we'll go as far as they take us. Assuming we sign AJ to catch we need Sano to start out strong, Arcia to hit well, and Presley to get on base at a .350 or so clip to have an offense capable of .500 ball next year. The potential is there and that's a good thing but there are so many variables until they actually hit.

[TwinsTerritory]

I'm going with 75-87, but I'll take 85 wins in 2015!

[drivlikejehu]

Right now, 70 wins.

[Physics Guy]

I think I would be happy with 81 this year. The pitching is going to be better and we have a number of young players who could show improvement (Arcia, Hicks ...) and a few veterans who could bounce back or be healthy (Willingham, Mauer, Plouffe). With their additions at SP, I would think the floor is around 74 and I would think that Marta's estimate of 85 is probably the ceiling. That being said, it's pretty early to have a great feeling for what the team will look like come April.

[Shane Wahl]

I am curious about the Winter Meetings, so I am waiting until at least then to make a prediction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I am curious about the Winter Meetings, so I am waiting until at least then to make a prediction.

 

Yeah, still too many lineup questions to answer and Ryan could surprise us all with a trade or two.

[thetank]

72 right now.

[Kwak]

The opponents change their rosters too! I agree with Thrylos, we need to wait until Spring before making predictions.

[mikecgrimes]

So far we have a major loss at catcher, a solid upgrade at 1st and a minor upgrade to the rotation. A lot more has to happen before I go above 75, and I know I will as I have a hard time seeing less then 90 every March. So might as well just get that out of the way giving the silliness of this question at this point. I see them winning 93 games in 2014.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So far we have a major loss at catcher, a solid upgrade at 1st and a minor upgrade to the rotation.

 

I agree with the sentiment but Nolasco is a massive upgrade to the rotation, not a minor one. He might be worth 3-4 wins by himself because of the dreck he will be replacing.

[mikecgrimes]

I agree with the sentiment but Nolasco is a massive upgrade to the rotation, not a minor one. He might be worth 3-4 wins by himself because of the dreck he will be replacing.

 

Agreed, massive upgrade to his one spot in rotation.

[Willihammer]

I am happy that the Twins seem to be out front and aggressive this offseason. Still need to bring back Pelfrey and get a catcher, and maybe a leadoff/CF. If they do that and catch some breaks then 85-95 wins is possible IMO.

 

A lot depends on how the Tribe handle Ubaldo and Kazmir obviously. I expect KC to finish right back around 90 wins. Whities have some guys who could improve over last year (De Aza, Ramirez, Garcia). And if that sports hernia/groin injury hits Cabrera again then it could be anybody's game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For those advocating a return of Pelfrey, what do you think the Twins should do with Diamond, Deduno, and Worley?

 

I don't think any of them will clear waivers and if the Twins pick up Pelfrey, that leaves one rotation spot for three guys.

[Willihammer]

For those advocating a return of Pelfrey, what do you think the Twins should do with Diamond, Deduno, and Worley?

 

I'd put them through waivers without a second thought and would be surprised if none of them cleared. They are all replacement types IMO.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not a silly question IMO. I love the optimism. Optimism is spilling all over these threads - who doesn't love that!?

 

Given the progression at the end of the nineties:

 

1999: 63-97

2000: 69-93

2001: 85-77

2002: 94-67, ALCS

 

And how we see this team setting up now:

 

2012: 66-96

2013: 66-96

2014:

2015:

 

so it's not unreasonable to predict or expect something like 82-80 this year and by spring 2015, we can hope even the 2014 Opening Day lineup will look like it was from another era.

[Thrylos]

For those advocating a return of Pelfrey, what do you think the Twins should do with Diamond, Deduno, and Worley?

 

I don't think any of them will clear waivers and if the Twins pick up Pelfrey, that leaves one rotation spot for three guys.

 

Five guys. Add Gibson to the equation. He pitched better than Diamond last season. Add Kris Johnson to the equation. TR said that he is better than Diamond (he is) and will compete for a spot.

 

That said, I'd rather see them sign Kazmir than Pelfrey. Need a LHP there. And I'd hand the #5 spot to Worley (people don't realize he is the same age as Kyle Gibson and he has has success in the majors in the past calling a bandbox of a ballpark home) and try to find good homes for Diamond and Deduno.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Five guys. Add Gibson to the equation. He pitched better than Diamond last season. Add Kris Johnson to the equation. TR said that he is better than Diamond (he is) and will compete for a spot.

 

That said, I'd rather see them sign Kazmir than Pelfrey. Need a LHP there. And I'd hand the #5 spot to Worley (people don't realize he is the same age as Kyle Gibson and he has has success in the majors in the past calling a bandbox of a ballpark home) and try to find good homes for Diamond and Deduno.

 

I agree, particularly on Worley. I'm still somewhat positive about him.

 

And no way do Diamond or Worley clear waivers. No freakin way. Deduno, maybe. Vance and Scott have had success as recently as 2012 and Worley hasn't even hit his prime seasons yet.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

A rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, then adding a Kazmir or Pelfrey, really smacks of the "shortcut" that Ryan said he wasn't going to take. So don't expect any more free agent pitcher signings and probably won't be a blockbuster trade either. Nolasco and Hughes was the right balance and as good as we could expect from this offseason. I'm actually happy.

 

The Twins will open the last two spots to competition among all these other guys, and that should be just fine. And then at some point in the season there will be an opening for Meyer to come up.

[goulik]

If they do not sign Garza, I hope they are done with FA pitchers.

[jokin]

I agree, particularly on Worley. I'm still somewhat positive about him.

 

And no way do Diamond or Worley clear waivers. No freakin way. Deduno, maybe. Vance and Scott have had success as recently as 2012 and Worley hasn't even hit his prime seasons yet.

 

A veritable embarrasment of riches? It actually could become so should the Vanimal regain his lost form.

 

My question. Can the Twins pull the same scheme as the Dodgers did (on a miniscule relative scale, of course) and stash their current and/or future collection of 7-8 (Pelfrey still an option?) potential starters in the: 1)collective rottion, 2) the bullpen, 3) the DL and/or 4) the minors? If not, what sort of trade is in the offing? I mean, they won't just entirely write off Diamond, Worley and/or Deduno, right?

[jokin]

If they do not sign Garza, I hope they are done with FA pitchers.

 

I think the Korean is still a possibility that intrigues them enough to still consider- hard to fathom that Garza would still be an option.

[snepp]

Right now, low 70's.

[Danchat]

Snepp is exactly right. I'd say 72 wins with this team right now.

[TheLeviathan]

When you factor in that the team out-performed their pyath. by a decent margin....even with these additions we're still in the neighborhood of 75, probably on the lower end.

[kab21]

The starting staff still isn't very good (much better though) and the offense is completely dependent on rookies to show a significant improvement. Right now the Twins are shooting for 75 wins but the offseason isn't over yet.

[jokin]

Right now, low 70's.

 

As the club has finally acknowledged that what many of us have advocated for over the last 2 offseasons IS the proper direction to head towards in order to resurrect the franchise, I've moved up from my September prediction of 62 wins in 2014....if Ryan shuts down all club-improvement activities shortly after the Winter Meetings (with only cosmetic and perfunctory roster moves in the interim), as he has done the last 2 years, I expect only 70-74 wins.

 

If he decides to make a continued commitment in aspiring to upgrade, fine tune and tinker with the product all the way up to the end of Spring Training (removing more dead weight and filling the remaining holes with legitimate MLB players at SP, C, SS, OF ), there's a fighting chance that 75 is the floor and 80 is the ceiling.

 

As many have said previously, there're many miles to go before April 1. Other teams in the division, and elsewhere, continued to upgrade until that point- and can continue to present an impediment to the Twins getting out of their morass at the bottom of the AL. The White Sox, for example, are bound to be better than in 2013, and KC and Cleveland established something to build upon.

 

Likewise, suddenly-fully-healthy arms from some combination of Deduno, Worley, Diamond and possibly Pelfrey, along with a sparkling debut from Meyer, say in May or June, can change the expectations and overall complexion of the Twins quite radically.