More rumors: Twins on Nolasco

[Kirbek]

Hope for 2 or 3: Arroyo, Vogelsong, Baker and Feldman.

 

Please no Santana. I want to remember him the way he was.

[Guest USAFChief]

I really need the like button... Besides... the like notifications are how I know when Glunn is around.

Like.

[big dog]

Take your system related complaints to the "About Twins Daily" forum please...this is a form of thread jacking.

 

Pseudomoderator note: please watch the tone of your comments. This is getting perilously close to resembling the Game Thread. Severe warnings, up to and including double-secret probation, will be handed out unless everyone immediately returns to discussions of advanced statistics and reading the tea leaves in Terry Ryan's chai cup.

[Guest USAFChief]

Hope for 2 or 3: Arroyo, Vogelsong, Baker and Feldman.

 

Please no Santana. I want to remember him the way he was.

Misty water color memories? In the corners of your mind?

 

Welcome aboard rook. "Like" the username, BTW.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Rosenthal said Twins are making strong push for Nolasco... 8 minutes ago on twitter

[twinscowboysbulls]

IF we get Nolasco, do we have enough chips to get 2 of either Hughes, arroyo, kazmir?

[Guest USAFChief]

Rosenthal said Twins are making strong push for Nolasco... 8 minutes ago on twitter,...

pfft. dated info. 8 minutes is a long time ago on twitter.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Now it's been 20..... And 21..... And so on.

[Smcginnity]

I'm fine getting Nolasco. That just better not be the ONLY move. If they get Nolasco AND Arroyo. That's good enough but I still wouldn't be happy. I think they should get at least Arroyo and Nolasco. Then, make a strong push for Kazmir as the ideal candidate. If Kazmir's price tag is too high, then go and get Johan to come back on a 1 year deal.

[twinscowboysbulls]

I think we should offer Santana the same deal we offered him 5 years ago...

[Brandon]

I think we should offer Santana the same deal we offered him 5 years ago...

 

A ticket out of town???

[Brandon]

Probably when the agent told them a four-year offer already was on the table, the Twins said no thanks and moved on.

 

If the Twins have sucha good relationship with the agent once they get priced out of their market they could be trying to help drive up the value for them the way the Redsox tried to help the Twins drive up the value of Santana back in 08 for us to trade them to someone other than the Yanks.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I would rather the Twins use the relationship with the agent to sign Josh Johnson to a deal that includes a second year option, than Nolasco. However, I like Nolasco better than Arroyo.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Sort of. Blockbuster contract, then we trade him for Gomez, Humber, Guerra and some other schmuck.

[gunnarthor]

Here's the link twinscowboybulls (what a name) was referring:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/twins-making-strong-push-for-ricky-nolasco.html#disqus_thread

[Marta Shearing]

Sort of. Blockbuster contract, then we trade him for Gomez, Humber, Guerra and some other schmuck.

The great Kevin Mulvey.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Yeah, sorry I'm a lazy poster. I'm still transitioning over from BYTO. Thank you.

[Shane Wahl]

Nolasco is Correia+. That's it. Are people even looking at his career numbers? He was above average in 2013 (though barely by ERA+). Before that? Below average for 4 years in a row. It's pretty confusing how he is going to get something like 4 years and $52 million. If the Twins did that I would throw up.

[Shane Wahl]

On what planet is Nolasco better than Arroyo (other than strikeouts)?

[Marta Shearing]

He fits the Twins mold.

[twinsin17]

When its all said and done it is likely he will get more than $13 mil/season. I don't understand why Twins fans care what he gets? We need SP help and Nolasco would profile as our #1. Signing Nolasco helps this team improve, that is the bottom line. When comparing any potential signing it is much more relevant to compare with the player the FA replaces on the team than it is to league average at the position. I imagine if the Twins had a staff full of league average starters and not the worst SP rotation in baseball we would be a much better team and may not be in the market for a slight upgrade like Nolasco is over league average. But we dont have a league avg rotation, we have the worst rotation, and Nolasco represents a HUGE improvement over the player he will replace. So spend whatever it takes to get him and any other pitchers that can help this team win games and become competitive again!

[twinscowboysbulls]

First of all. I don't think anyone thinks Nolasco is the 'end all, save the franchise' pitcher. Now with that being said, He would instantly become our best pitcher.

 

I am at the point where any money spent on FA is progress. It means we are understanding that FA is not the devil. It means TR is finally addressing some of this organizations shortcomings. It speaks for the present and for the future. Regardless of what type of product is put on the field for next year, I am much more confident in this organization going forward if they are willing to sign at least two guys to contracts larger than Willingham's. Now I hope they are good players going forward, but we are talking about freaking baby steps here.

[twinscowboysbulls]

A rotation of:

Nolasco

Arroyo

Corriea

Diamond/Deduno

Gibson

 

Would drastically improve our peripherals. I'm hoping those two are added and then we wait out the market for a bit and then snag someone who slips through the cracks for a "reduced deal."

[drivlikejehu]

Nolasco is much younger than Arroyo. Both have been durable but age is a major risk factor. Nolasco typically has had the FIP of a #2 starter and results of a #3-4 starter, which isn't necessarily a bad thing- he was very good in 2013, but his mixed track record will prevent him from getting a huge deal.

 

Four years, $50-60MM is mid-rotation money. The Twins certainly need decent pitchers and can afford Nolasco very easily, while still having plenty of room to sign other pitchers if they desire. For 2015 they currently have $27MM committed, total.

[beckmt]

I am OK with Nolasco as long as he is our second best pitcher signed, not the "ace"

[Craig in MN]

On what planet is Nolasco better than Arroyo (other than strikeouts)?

 

Well, acccording to fangraphs, Nolasco has a better FIP, xFIP, WAR, K/BB ratio, fastball speed, HR rate, and he's younger. His ERA and ERA+ are worse, and those are definitely notable. They are both decent pitchers in general. I guess we will see if the baseball world thinks he's better, and pays him more.

 

The problem with Arroyo is that you are likely going to be paying for the year where he falls off a cliff, and you are definitely getting a short contract. When you sign a short contract with a high likelihood of one of those years being a bad deal, then it's hard to make the whole deal a good signing.

[Smcginnity]

I want to ask you all a question. Is it realistic to expect the Twins to sign these three:

 

Arroyo

Kazmir

Nolasco

 

If so, how much per year would it cost them? 30-40 million? Which is NOT that much in combination with their current payroll. They CAN and SHOULD afford that! Right?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nolasco is much younger than Arroyo. Both have been durable but age is a major risk factor. Nolasco typically has had the FIP of a #2 starter and results of a #3-4 starter, which isn't necessarily a bad thing- he was very good in 2013, but his mixed track record will prevent him from getting a huge deal.

 

Four years, $50-60MM is mid-rotation money. The Twins certainly need decent pitchers and can afford Nolasco very easily, while still having plenty of room to sign other pitchers if they desire. For 2015 they currently have $27MM committed, total.

 

Nolasco is a maddenly frustrating guy. Like you said, FIP of a 2 and results much worse. The fact that he can consistently do this tells me that some of these advanced stats need some tweaking, because something other than random distribution is going on here. That said, the potential is there, so perhaps this is a worthwhile signing... But that means Rick Anderson has to fix him.

 

Number 4 results and number 2 potential... wants number 3 money.... at his age someone will give it to him.

[gunnarthor]

I want to ask you all a question. Is it realistic to expect the Twins to sign these three:

 

Arroyo

Kazmir

Nolasco

 

If so, how much per year would it cost them? 30-40 million? Which is NOT that much in combination with their current payroll. They CAN and SHOULD afford that! Right?

 

Keeping in mind that I suck at these things, I think Arroyo ends up with a 2yr/16m type deal (could be a bit more on the money but I think the years are right). Kazmir gets another 1 year deal, I don't think anyone trusts him enough yet. Maybe he gets an option of some type. But I think 1yr/8m + lots of incentives if he's healthy. Nolasco seems to be in the 4yr/48m range.

 

So, if that's right (or close), those three would cost the team 28m this year, 20m next year and just 12m the following two years.

 

I could be way off on my guesses, though.

[Smcginnity]

Keeping in mind that I suck at these things, I think Arroyo ends up with a 2yr/16m type deal (could be a bit more on the money but I think the years are right). Kazmir gets another 1 year deal, I don't think anyone trusts him enough yet. Maybe he gets an option of some type. But I think 1yr/8m + lots of incentives if he's healthy. Nolasco seems to be in the 4yr/48m range.

 

So, if that's right (or close), those three would cost the team 28m this year, 20m next year and just 12m the following two years.

 

I could be way off on my guesses, though.

 

So, basically 30-40 million per year. That is doable. Especially after losing the contracts of Morneau, Blackburn, Pelfrey, and Jamey Carroll. Not even counting the new TV contract kicking in. The Twins can afford this and I just see TR setting up the whole cliche statement of "We pursued some major FA pitchers but we just couldn't land them. So, we have some great in-house options"....the Twins way....