Jose Abreu signs with Sox

[PseudoSABR]

Once again, 11 million a year is not a burden on the payroll. Period.

I guess it's not if you have so little invested in your rotation. Priorities matter.

[old nurse]

Once again, 11 million a year is not a burden on the payroll. Period.

It is if it is a below average player. See any complaint about Blackburn's contract.

[PseudoSABR]

No, this deal would not have been prohibitive in signing another or two more similar contracts (though 68mil isn't chump change, even if over six years), but the reality is that the Twins are likely to only commit that kind of money to one non-organizational player this offseason. And I'd rather that player be a pitcher.

 

If Abreu turns out to be Viciedo (to whom he's been compared), having that contract on the books for the next years will get less and less palatable.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't believe we will ever see a contract of 6 years given to a pitcher by Ryan. I hope he proves me wrong, but deals like this strike me as the only kinds of larger commitments we'll see.

[TheLeviathan]

It is if it is a below average player. See any complaint about Blackburn's contract.

 

This assumes the payroll would be used otherwise. It also assumes Abreu is a below average player. How good he will be remains to be seen, but if fear of disappointing results is going to drive your contract signings - you might as well not even bother. Great players and talented players disappoint every year for any number of reasons.

 

Plus, Ryan is paid to make sure he utilizes his resources effectively. So far, he isn't earning his own paycheck either.

[jokin]

So this must mean they're not bringing back Konerko.

 

I wonder if the Twins will talk to him.

 

Exactly what I commented on in the Twins thread. Just exactly the way the Twins think, hope lightining strikes twice- aging thumper finds temporary new life- ala Jim Thome. Konerko's a great guy like Thome, but is that really the direction a rebuilding team should be headed?

[kab21]

Exactly what I commented on in the Twins thread. Just exactly the way the Twins think, hope lightining strikes twice- aging thumper finds temporary new life- ala Jim Thome. Konerko's a great guy like Thome, but is that really the direction a rebuilding team should be headed?

 

Konerko would be a fine signing if the team didn't already have Willingham and Doumit filling the role of aging players that shouldn't play in the field. 2 of those types is probably too many and 3 is just silly for a rebuilding team.

[jokin]

Konerko would be a fine signing if the team didn't already have Willingham and Doumit filling the role of aging players that shouldn't play in the field. 2 of those types is probably too many and 3 is just silly for a rebuilding team.

 

Exactly. Konerko's a class act and potentially a good team mentor, but there are plenty of younger and more able-bodied and productive veterans available in Free Agency that might also provide a leadership role, as well.

[old nurse]

This assumes the payroll would be used otherwise. It also assumes Abreu is a below average player. How good he will be remains to be seen, but if fear of disappointing results is going to drive your contract signings - you might as well not even bother. Great players and talented players disappoint every year for any number of reasons.

 

Plus, Ryan is paid to make sure he utilizes his resources effectively. So far, he isn't earning his own paycheck either.

 

Chastising for not spending the money assumes he will be an above average first baseman. They are paid to evaluate talent. It is not fear of disappointment, it is called talent evaluation. Would you pay 68 million for Jamie D'Antona? You see big numbers for a player and think they will translate to major league success. Power from a long swing disappears with a plus fastball.

[TheLeviathan]

Chastising for not spending the money assumes he will be an above average first baseman. They are paid to evaluate talent. It is not fear of disappointment, it is called talent evaluation. Would you pay 68 million for Jamie D'Antona? You see big numbers for a player and think they will translate to major league success. Power from a long swing disappears with a plus fastball.

 

If they avoided this because he's going to be a sub-par player - great! Hopefully they're right. But at this point, we have every reason to believe the reason was because his price went too high.

 

What we do know for sure, that is the most disappointing part for many I think, is that he was one of only a few options this young available in FA.

[old nurse]

If they avoided this because he's going to be a sub-par player - great! Hopefully they're right. But at this point, we have every reason to believe the reason was because his price went too high.

 

What we do know for sure, that is the most disappointing part for many I think, is that he was one of only a few options this young available in FA.

 

3 years ago Adam Dunn signed a 4/56 contract. If Abru's agent thought he could hit home runs like Adam Dunn then he would have went for a short 2-3 year contract so he could cash in. How many 34 year olds get the monster contract? For the level Abru will perform at, you are correct. The price went too high.

[TheLeviathan]

3 years ago Adam Dunn signed a 4/56 contract. If Abru's agent thought he could hit home runs like Adam Dunn then he would have went for a short 2-3 year contract so he could cash in. How many 34 year olds get the monster contract? For the level Abru will perform at, you are correct. The price went too high.

 

Neither of us know how those negotiations go. For some of these guys the larger total dollar guarantee may be more appealing. Adam Dunn had already been established and made a bunch of money, the situations are very different.

[jokin]

3 years ago Adam Dunn signed a 4/56 contract. If Abru's agent thought he could hit home runs like Adam Dunn then he would have went for a short 2-3 year contract so he could cash in. How many 34 year olds get the monster contract? For the level Abru will perform at, you are correct. The price went too high.

 

If I could have a nickel for every time someone said the price went too high on a Free Agent....ah well....It's the price for staying in business- not a bad deal at all, especially when you're replacing the previous first baseman at a huge discount.

 

Since you seem to somehow know in advance the level he will perform at, would you care to share his 2014 batting slash with the Community- so to take away the doubt, mystery and angst the rest of us have in not knowing how- and why- Terry Ryan so miraculously dodged this bullet?

 

Looking at the qualified First Basemen at the top of the bottom half in WAR this year (ie, "mediocre"):

 

Prince Fielder WAR 2.2 .279/.362/.457 (25HR) Salary: 9/$214M

Anthony Rizzo WAR 1.6 .233/.323/.419 (23HR) Salary: 9/$70M

Nick Swisher WAR 2.4 .246/.341/.423 (22HR) Salary: 5/$80M

 

 

Justin Morneau WAR 0.8 .259/.323/.411 (17HR) Salary: 6/$80M

 

Here's what his Cuban native contemporary did in 2013, his WAR number (2.3) is not comparable because he plays OF:

 

Yoenis Cespedes .240/.294/.442 (26 HR) Salary 4+2/$36+$32?=$68M?

 

That $68M is a reasonable, low-ball estimate forecasting for Cespedes' last 2 yet-unsigned arb years, in 2016 and 2017 @$16M/yr- and curiously, it's the same as Abreu's contract number. Their respective hitting numbers in Cuba were similar, with Abreu besting Cespedes more often than not.

 

I think most Sox fans will be thrilled if and when Abreu produces numbers superior to those listed above- in the very-hitter-friendly launching pad that is US Cellular Field. Many Twins fans would have been similarly thrilled.

 

And Oh Yeah, about that "long swing"? We've still got a sainted guy who still hangs around the ballpark.....and he literally speaks Abreu's language. Tony-O could have fixed that hitch....muy rapido!

[old nurse]

I

 

Looking at the qualified First Basemen at the top of the bottom half in WAR this year (ie, "mediocre"):

 

Prince Fielder WAR 2.2 .279/.362/.457 (25HR) Salary: 9/$214M

Anthony Rizzo WAR 1.6 .233/.323/.419 (23HR) Salary: 9/$70M

Nick Swisher WAR 2.4 .246/.341/.423 (22HR) Salary: 5/$80M

 

 

Justin Morneau WAR 0.8 .259/.323/.411 (17HR) Salary: 6/$80M

 

 

 

Morneau hasn't been the same post concussion. For Abru to be a comparable he would have to be kicked in the head. All of the 1b you cited (Swisher was signed to be a RF but played 1b) had off seasons. But it does prove my point, if the agent thought he was going to produce he would have went for a shorter contract. Look what these guys are paid, An argument you did not refute.

The point isn't his wage per say, rather he is not going to be a great player. How the agent did the contract is the proof. It is not the he is overpaid aspect.

[John Bonnes]

Morneau hasn't been the same post concussion. For Abru to be a comparable he would have to be kicked in the head. All of the 1b you cited (Swisher was signed to be a RF but played 1b) had off seasons. But it does prove my point, if the agent thought he was going to produce he would have went for a shorter contract. Look what these guys are paid, An argument you did not refute.

The point isn't his wage per say, rather he is not going to be a great player. How the agent did the contract is the proof. It is not the he is overpaid aspect.

 

Well, almost by definition he's overpaid, in that only one team in 32 was willing to pay him that much. And while it's interesting that he chose a longer guaranteed deal over a shorter deal, I think there's a reason for that: service time. If he signs a 2-year deal, I think the club still owns his rights for four years and can offer him arbitration, etc., (or even keep him in the minors, giving him no service time.) Or at least all Cubans seem to go that route.

 

But you're absolutely right that we know essentially nothing about this guy. If he's a star, then 25+ teams, including the Twins, blew it. If he's a plodding DH who is mediocre, than the White Sox are tied to another long-term deal, which has been a weakness for them. And Cuban players haven't been a big strength either, I don't think. I can't remember any big breakthroughs there.

 

It sure would have made the offseason more interesting had the a Twins got him, though. I'd like to know why they weren't interested.

[nicksaviking]

And Cuban players haven't been a big strength either, I don't think. I can't remember any big breakthroughs there.

 

For the league, or just the White Sox?

 

Either way, Alexei Rameriz has been a steal for Chicago. His orignial deal was 4 years for $4.75 million. It was a different time, but he was a known commodity, that was just the going rate for most Cuban bats. His new deal pays him about $30 million for four years. What a bargain for a plus defensvie and plus offensive shortstop.

 

Dayan Viciedo hasn't done a ton yet, but he did hit 24 HR as a 23-year old. The White Sox may not be the Dodgers, but they seem to have a better feel for this Cuban game than the Twins do. In my opinion, if the Twins don't know how to proceed with Cuban free agents, just go after the guys that the other succesful Cuban chasers are going after. It's not a sin to acknowledge another team may know more than you in a particular area.

[jokin]

Morneau hasn't been the same post concussion. For Abru to be a comparable he would have to be kicked in the head. All of the 1b you cited (Swisher was signed to be a RF but played 1b) had off seasons. But it does prove my point, if the agent thought he was going to produce he would have went for a shorter contract. Look what these guys are paid, An argument you did not refute.

The point isn't his wage per say, rather he is not going to be a great player. How the agent did the contract is the proof. It is not the he is overpaid aspect.

 

Nope. The deal is directly related to service time and getting money up front should he spend time in the minor leagues- both sides get some protection in this scenario. You have still not provided any proof whatsoever in flatly stating that "he is not going to be a great player." Rather, we simply don't know what type of player he is going to be, but the evidence that we do have suggests that he at least has a good chance to produce at a level commensurate with what a middling first baseman can produce, with the potential upside to produce like Big Papi.

[jokin]

For the league, or just the White Sox?

 

Either way, Alexei Rameriz has been a steal for Chicago. His orignial deal was 4 years for $4.75 million. It was a different time, but he was a known commodity, that was just the going rate for most Cuban bats. His new deal pays him about $30 million for four years. What a bargain for a plus defensvie and plus offensive shortstop.

 

Dayan Viciedo hasn't done a ton yet, but he did hit 24 HR as a 23-year old. The White Sox may not be the Dodgers, but they seem to have a better feel for this Cuban game than the Twins do. In my opinion, if the Twins don't know how to proceed with Cuban free agents, just go after the guys that the other succesful Cuban chasers are going after. It's not a sin to acknowledge another team may know more than you in a particular area.

 

Bingo. I'm also not quite sure where John was going with his statement. This is an area of the market for talent that is being exploited around the league with some documented success stories (Cuba ranks 3rd in the number of international active players on major league rosters- ahead of Japan and Canada), and the Twins are nowhere to be found. A team in a desperate situation at the position like the Twins should at least have been in the running- and the fact that the Red Sox were a finalist in the bidding tells me that a team that clearly knows what it's doing- and not just in a dire urgency situation like the Twins and White Sox- ......was doing more than just kicking the tires in this case.

[ThePuck]

For the league, or just the White Sox?

 

Either way, Alexei Rameriz has been a steal for Chicago. His orignial deal was 4 years for $4.75 million. It was a different time, but he was a known commodity, that was just the going rate for most Cuban bats. His new deal pays him about $30 million for four years. What a bargain for a plus defensvie and plus offensive shortstop.

 

Dayan Viciedo hasn't done a ton yet, but he did hit 24 HR as a 23-year old. The White Sox may not be the Dodgers, but they seem to have a better feel for this Cuban game than the Twins do. In my opinion, if the Twins don't know how to proceed with Cuban free agents, just go after the guys that the other succesful Cuban chasers are going after. It's not a sin to acknowledge another team may know more than you in a particular area.

 

If talking about the 30 teams, not just the White Sox, MLB Puig and Cespedes have been pretty darn good as well.

[twinsfan34]

Bingo. I'm also not quite sure where John was going with his statement. This is an area of the market for talent that is being exploited around the league with some documented success stories (Cuba ranks 3rd in the number of international active players on major league rosters- ahead of Japan and Canada), and the Twins are nowhere to be found. A team in a desperate situation at the position like the Twins should at least have been in the running- and the fact that the Red Sox were a finalist in the bidding tells me that a team that clearly knows what it's doing- and not just in a dire urgency situation like the Twins and White Sox- ......was doing more than just kicking the tires in this case.

 

Cuba was 4th. But yeah.

 

Opening Day rosters feature 241 players born outside the U.S. | MLB.com: News

 

Abreu went hitless and looked overmatched against Gerrit Cole and Tanaka. He had 300 at bats in front of scouts. He isn't an 'obscure' prospect like Puig was. Scouts have seen him. They've seen him a lot. Scouts can be wrong of course. But he was seen often by all 30 MLB teams. Astros were the only other formal bid I had heard of. $55M. What did the Red Sox bid?

[twinsfan34]

And I would say the Red Sox are actually not that successful when it comes to international scouting success.

 

Xander Bogaerts could help them (Amateur Free Agent). Matsuaka's 6 years at $103M (posting fee + salarly) for 1 good season and 1 above average season with 4 horrible seasons, to me, has to be considered a big black eye.

 

Tazawa and Doubront are the only other international signees on the Red Sox roster. Jose Iglesias would have been a 3rd. It's one of the least international rostered teams in MLB.

 

If I'm not mistaken, you'd have to go back to 2003 when they signed Hanley Ramirez to find a home run on an international signing by the Red Sox.

[#24 Sano]

I must say I'm not very interested in him because we don't have a big hole(Canyon) at 1B

I truly care for pitching and Jacoby Ellsbury.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow, Cuba was fourth? I would not have guessed that in a million years*

 

*actually, given a million years, I may have got that correct.....

[twinsfan34]

They did sign Anibal Sanchez in 2001...another good signing.

[old nurse]

Well, almost by definition he's overpaid, in that only one team in 32 was willing to pay him that much. And while it's interesting that he chose a longer guaranteed deal over a shorter deal, I think there's a reason for that: service time. If he signs a 2-year deal, I think the club still owns his rights for four years and can offer him arbitration, etc., (or even keep him in the minors, giving him no service time.) Or at least all Cubans seem to go that route.

 

But you're absolutely right that we know essentially nothing about this guy. If he's a star, then 25+ teams, including the Twins, blew it. If he's a plodding DH who is mediocre, than the White Sox are tied to another long-term deal, which has been a weakness for them. And Cuban players haven't been a big strength either, I don't think. I can't remember any big breakthroughs there.

 

It sure would have made the offseason more interesting had the a Twins got him, though. I'd like to know why they weren't interested.

 

Kuroda was a free agent after 4 years with the Dodgers.Cesepedes deal was for 4 years. Are you sure that they are bound by the 6 year rule. Why they do not count against the international cap is years as a professional. That is why I did not think they were bound to a team for 6 years

[twinsfan34]

Kuroda was a free agent after 4 years with the Dodgers.Cesepedes deal was for 4 years. Are you sure that they are bound by the 6 year rule. Why they do not count against the international cap is years as a professional. That is why I did not think they were bound to a team for 6 years

 

If there's any follow up to this question - I'd like to know/understand as well. Would go a long way as to better understand how teams can and do pursue international non-amateur free agents.

[kab21]

If there's any follow up to this question - I'd like to know/understand as well. Would go a long way as to better understand how teams can and do pursue international non-amateur free agents.

 

Several Japanese and Cuban players sign contracts that specifically grant them free agency when the initial contract is completed. I have wondered if baseball was going to eliminate this but they can still do it since Guerrero did it on his contract with the Dodgers.

 

I'm still unsure if the posting counts or not towards the luxury tax. I wouldn't be surprised if it was prorated but I don't know.

[jokin]

Cuba was 4th. But yeah.

 

Opening Day rosters feature 241 players born outside the U.S. | MLB.com: News

 

Abreu went hitless and looked overmatched against Gerrit Cole and Tanaka. He had 300 at bats in front of scouts. He isn't an 'obscure' prospect like Puig was. Scouts have seen him. They've seen him a lot. Scouts can be wrong of course. But he was seen often by all 30 MLB teams. Astros were the only other formal bid I had heard of. $55M. What did the Red Sox bid?

 

I think your source was for opening day rosters, my source was updated to reflect rosters throughout the season and it said that Cuba was 3rd and Canada was 4th:

 

List of current Major League Baseball players by nationality - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Ken Rosenthal stated this concerning the bidding:

 

"Sources: Bidding for Abreu was close and furious. Four clubs bid between $63 and $66M. #WhiteSox’s winning bid was $68M."

[jokin]

Kuroda was a free agent after 4 years with the Dodgers.Cesepedes deal was for 4 years. Are you sure that they are bound by the 6 year rule. Why they do not count against the international cap is years as a professional. That is why I did not think they were bound to a team for 6 years

 

Not according to Baseball Reference- according to them standard rules apply.

[jokin]

Wow, Cuba was fourth? I would not have guessed that in a million years*

 

*actually, given a million years, I may have got that correct.....

 

Cuba has 21 that played major league ball in 2013 and Canada had 20, Japan with 13- it shocked me too.