Sickels: Top 20 Twins prospects for 2014

[righty8383]

Does anyone have input on Madison Boer? I would have expected our 2nd round pick from 2011? to be on list or at least a mention in "others". Haven't really followed him, but wondering what the word is--clearly he must not be living up to 2nd round status....

 

Not really a prospect at all. Pitched decent out of the bullpen for Cedar Rapids, a league that he is too old for. He was terrible in 2012, despite pitching in the pitcher friendly FSL.

[cmb0252]

BA America released their 2013 draft report cards today which focused on players first impressions. This is how they made their lists:

 

"We put a final bow on the 2013 draft with our annual team-by-team review of all the selections and how the players’ professional careers have started. Editor in chief John Manuel, managing editor J.J. Cooper and assistant editor Clint Longenecker spoke with scouting directors, as well as other scouting and player development personnel, to break down each of the 30 draft classes."

 

While third round pick Turner was tagged as the 3rd best defensive player Stewart was the one who really shined. He was given the second best fastball, 5th best secondary pitch (him and Gray were the only players to be on both list and there was only one more HSer to make either list), best HS athlete (Buxton held this honor last year), and quickest HS player to the bigs. Obviously people around the league see something special in Mr.Stewart. The only other Twin to make it was Tanner Vavra for second best human interest story.

 

Link below:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-draft-report-cards-first-impressions-of-the-draft-classes/

[Lefty74]

Not really a prospect at all. Pitched decent out of the bullpen for Cedar Rapids, a league that he is too old for. He was terrible in 2012, despite pitching in the pitcher friendly FSL.

 

 

Thanks, very helpful.

[iastfan112]

Jorge and Gonzalves were both age appropriate as well. Thorpe is a little younger but he is not like Urias from the dodgers. Stats that low in the minors mean less than scouting reports. I'm sure does have better stuff but I would like to know specifically what makes him better at this stage of their careers.

 

Performance relative to peers always matters, maybe less so for Rk leagues but it does matter, especially if the numbers are backed up by the stuff which for Thorpe it is. Also 1 full year in prospect terms is significant, no he's not a freak like Urias but being 17 vs Jorge and Gonsalves being 18 is significant. Generally more chance for a 17 year old to grow 3 inches and add to his fastball then it is for a guy who is older, even just a year.

[Oxtung]

Performance relative to peers always matters, maybe less so for Rk leagues but it does matter, especially if the numbers are backed up by the stuff which for Thorpe it is. Also 1 full year in prospect terms is significant, no he's not a freak like Urias but being 17 vs Jorge and Gonsalves being 18 is significant. Generally more chance for a 17 year old to grow 3 inches and add to his fastball then it is for a guy who is older, even just a year.

 

Well we will have to disagree on just how much difference a year makes when both are age appropriate for the league and how much statistics matter at RK ball, but that really wasn't my point. I want to know what the scouts see differently (as I said scouting reports matter more in the lower minors than statistics) between the three pitchers. Really the big thing here is we don't have much to go on for Jorge or Gonsalves at this point (or Thorpe outside of Sickels.)

[cmathewson]

Thorpe and Berrios give me the most hope about that list (and over 20 players with a C+ or better grade, WOW). We know about Meyer but he can't pitch five days in a row. The Twins badly need guys who can come up and be an acceptable #3 starter.

 

I'd amend this to say, "Outside of Stewart, Thorpe and Berrios give me the most hope..."

 

Stewart is the only pitcher we've drafted in more than a decade with true #1 upside.

[iastfan112]

BA America released their 2013 draft report cards today which focused on players first impressions. This is how they made their lists:

 

"We put a final bow on the 2013 draft with our annual team-by-team review of all the selections and how the players’ professional careers have started. Editor in chief John Manuel, managing editor J.J. Cooper and assistant editor Clint Longenecker spoke with scouting directors, as well as other scouting and player development personnel, to break down each of the 30 draft classes."

 

While third round pick Turner was tagged as the 3rd best defensive player Stewart was the one who really shined. He was given the second best fastball, 5th best secondary pitch (him and Gray were the only players to be on both list and there was only one more HSer to make either list), best HS athlete (Buxton held this honor last year), and quickest HS player to the bigs. Obviously people around the league see something special in Mr.Stewart. The only other Twin to make it was Tanner Vavra for second best human interest story.

 

Link below:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2013-draft-report-cards-first-impressions-of-the-draft-classes/

 

Interesting that Stewart is viewed as the fastest HS player to the majors, with how raw and inexperienced he is as a pitcher. Highly encouraging as well.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Not sure that Ibarra is a prospect as much as he is a potential decent LOOGY option down the line.

 

So, a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least.

 

Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.

[B Richard]

I don't know if anyone mentioned it here, but regarding Thorpe's improvement....

 

I've seen a few different reports that he grew and put on a fair amount of weight. I remember seeing that he's throwing harder now with better stuff. I'll try to dig up a link if I can find one

[righty8383]

I don't know if anyone mentioned it here, but regarding Thorpe's improvement....

 

I've seen a few different reports that he grew and put on a fair amount of weight. I remember seeing that he's throwing harder now with better stuff. I'll try to dig up a link if I can find one

 

Would be great to see more scouting reports on him. The intrigue has definitely gone up.

[Shane Wahl]

By the way, Kepler definitely holding his own in the AFL.

[Oxtung]

So' date=' a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least.

 

Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.[/quote']

 

As good as Ibarra's 2013 season was, he has done little to distinguish himself the previous years. When you are 24 and starting the season at AA one season isn't enough to get you ranked.

 

That said, I think we all hope that his 2013 season translates to the Twins in 2014, regardless of how he is viewed as a prospect!

[Trevor0333]

Too bad May has really appeared to have stalled out at AA. Had he performed as well as Meyer the roatation culd be looking a lot brighter.

 

I'm a little higher on Rosario too, I'd put him at B+.

[clutterheart]

So' date=' a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least.

 

Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.[/quote']

 

B-/C+ seems high based on how Sickles grades

Who would you move down on this list?

[Trevor0333]

B-/C+ seems high based on how Sickles grades

Who would you move down on this list?

 

I would say a LOOGY is basically a lefty specialist, if their ceiling is only being able to get lefties out I wouldnt qualify them much of a prospect.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Well we will have to disagree on just how much difference a year makes when both are age appropriate for the league and how much statistics matter at RK ball, but that really wasn't my point. I want to know what the scouts see differently (as I said scouting reports matter more in the lower minors than statistics) between the three pitchers. Really the big thing here is we don't have much to go on for Jorge or Gonsalves at this point (or Thorpe outside of Sickels.)

 

I added height until I was almost 21, and was still adding upper body bulk until 23. Not sure if this was a usual growth pattern or not, but I've always thought that most guys don't get their adult body until 23-24. 17 to 18 seems like it wouldn't make that much difference, although of course everyone is different.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So' date=' a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least.

 

Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.[/quote']

 

By their very definition and what they contribute to a MLB team, no, a LOOGY is not a prospect.

 

If the guy is dominant enough to be an 8th or 9th inning guy, he's a prospect... But you're kinda shooting yourself in the foot with the LOOGY label, which means he won't pitch more than ~40 innings a season.

[Seth Stohs]

I understand the value that the bullpen has on an MLB team. But Ibarra is a reliever, doesn't strike out a lot and walks too many. He can have a role with the Twins, and I hope he can. Just doesn't transfer into prospect rankings well.

[Seth Stohs]

As for Thorpe, it'll be interesting to see where he is in a year. But, yeah, when you're left-handed, tall and now hit 95 at age 17, it's going to vault you up the prospect rankings regardless of what the numbers say.

[kab21]

This whole Ibarra argument is about a 24 yr old RP'er that typically walks 4+ batter in 9 innings?

 

If you are a relief pitcher, kind of old and walk 4 every 9 innings then you better be striking out 15/9 in the minors. He had a nice ERA but I'm not sure if he is in my top 10 relief pitchers in the org.

[Shane Wahl]

I see 2014 as a chance for Ibarra to get to his career numbers and have a good overall season in AAA, earning a September callup.

 

There probably should be a distinction between:

 

true prospects

minor leaguers who have something to contribute, potentially, in MLB

minor leaguers who don't have something to contribut, potentially, in MLB

 

There is some overlap in between those first two groups in terms of who actually gets to the big leagues. Ibarra is more likely to get a cup of coffee than at least one top 20 prospect in the Twins system, for instance.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, Ibarra somewhat followed the Aaron Hicks path . . . struggles first year after promotion, repeats, does well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I added height until I was almost 21, and was still adding upper body bulk until 23. Not sure if this was a usual growth pattern or not, but I've always thought that most guys don't get their adult body until 23-24. 17 to 18 seems like it wouldn't make that much difference, although of course everyone is different.

 

But young pro athletes are often the "early peakers" in size, particularly height -- that's how they get to be the young pro athletes! I don't know anything about it really, but I suspect they are less likely to grow late (particularly height and any natural muscle/weight).

 

I was just skimming through past GCL seasons for Thorpe comparables, and I noticed that Clayton Kershaw put up similar stats in that league at age 18. But Kershaw was already 6'3" and 215 lbs at that point, and he's basically the same size now at age 25.

[Otto von Ballpark]

By the way, Kepler definitely holding his own in the AFL.

 

Yes. Small sample size and all, but it's encouraging to see him 3-9 against both lefties and righties, with zero Ks against LHP too. He looked pretty bad against LHP this year, and still hasn't shown much power against them in the minor league career.

[kab21]

I see 2014 as a chance for Ibarra to get to his career numbers and have a good overall season in AAA, earning a September callup.

 

There probably should be a distinction between:

 

true prospects

minor leaguers who have something to contribute, potentially, in MLB

minor leaguers who don't have something to contribut, potentially, in MLB

 

There is some overlap in between those first two groups in terms of who actually gets to the big leagues. Ibarra is more likely to get a cup of coffee than at least one top 20 prospect in the Twins system, for instance.

 

I have no idea what you are talking about in the first paragraph. His K and BB rates have been consistent (mediocre) throughout the minors. Even if he gets a cup of coffee his upside is so low that he shouldn't rank anywhere near a top 20 list.

[drivlikejehu]

Mediocre relief pitchers are easily acquired by a club. The whole point of a prospect is to provide something that can't just be picked up cheaply elsewhere.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sickels has Duke Welker in the "Others to Watch" group. I might put him in there for his awesome name alone, but his age and numbers suggest Jim Hoey lite, no? (Hoey was on the opposite end of the awesome name spectrum, however)

[kab21]

Sickels has Duke Welker in the "Others to Watch" group. I might put him in there for his awesome name alone, but his age and numbers suggest Jim Hoey lite, no? (Hoey was on the opposite end of the awesome name spectrum, however)

 

He's a guy to watch since he's a hard thrower and sometimes those guys just click at some point in the majors and become really good. Or they just suck like Hoey. I think he falls into the 2nd category and I'm not very interested.

[Seth Stohs]

Remember also that Ibarra can again become a minor league free agent after the season. Last year, he signed quickly to return. This year, he may have some other options, so if the Twins want to keep him, they may have to put him on the 40 man roster before the World Series is over.

 

I like Ibarra. Really liked what I saw from him in (admittedly) one start in Beloit several years ago. Not sure if he's a 40 man roster guy though.

[Shane Wahl]

I have no idea what you are talking about in the first paragraph. His K and BB rates have been consistent (mediocre) throughout the minors. Even if he gets a cup of coffee his upside is so low that he shouldn't rank anywhere near a top 20 list.

 

2013 was a very good year for him. His best. What I mean is that in Rochester, his K rate dropped and his BB rate went up a bit. Rochester: 6.9/4.4, career: 7.8/3.9. If his 2013 H/9 numbers are not an anomaly and he maintains something similar, a return to his 7.8/3.9 K/BB makes him a more ideal candidate for adding to the 40-man and being a potential contributor at the end of next season.