Article on Terry Ryan

[stringer bell]

I thought this article on Terry Ryan was pretty instructive. I think my favorite team has a GM stuck in the 90s, who seems to be "saving his chips" waiting for something that will never come--the perfect free agent. Here's a link to the article by Beradino: Minnesota Twins' Terry Ryan can run from free agency, but he can no longer hide - TwinCities.com

 

If the link doesn't work, it is from yesterday's PP.

[Guest USAFChief]

The link works, thanks for posting.

 

More of the same from Ryan. Some will like it, some will hate it, but there's not much there he hasn't said before, IMO. Not sure if I've heard him say Corriea was an "overpay" before, but whatever.

 

One interesting new fact (new to me anyway)...season ticket sales were off 24% since 2011. Ouch.

[howieramone1406390264]

I thought this article on Terry Ryan was pretty instructive. I think my favorite team has a GM stuck in the 90s, who seems to be "saving his chips" waiting for something that will never come--the perfect free agent. Here's a link to the article by Beradino: Minnesota Twins' Terry Ryan can run from free agency, but he can no longer hide - TwinCities.com

 

If the link doesn't work, it is from yesterday's PP.

 

If you listen to Theo, Ryan sounds like a visionary. Theo in his own words is transparent, and much slicker, but he's using more or less the same process as Ryan. Seth recently posted, Ryan told him he would not take shortcuts. I don't know how he could have made it clearer than that. Ryan being human is going to make mistakes, and there are plenty of areas he can legitimately be criticized for, but the fact of the matter is you can not rebuild a mid-market Major League baseball team in 23 months.

[gunnarthor]

The article doesn't really say much we didn't know, although I missed the "saving the chips" part. He's not going to spend money just to spend money.

[Willihammer]

"That can be frustrating with fans," St. Peter said. "It can be frustrating at times, I think, even for our owner. Terry puts a value on certain players and on a way to build a team. We put a great deal of respect and, frankly, trust in Terry Ryan's approach."

 

Step 1. Lose a bunch of games

Step 2. hibernate through the winter

Step 3. Wake up, sign one of the stragglers before ST

Step 4. Draft High

 

Rinse and repeat

[Alex]

If you listen to Theo, Ryan sounds like a visionary. Theo in his own words is transparent, and much slicker, but he's using more or less the same process as Ryan. Seth recently posted, Ryan told him he would not take shortcuts. I don't know how he could have made it clearer than that. Ryan being human is going to make mistakes, and there plenty of areas he can legitimately be criticized for, but the fact of the matter is you can not rebuild a mid-market Major League baseball team in 23 months.

 

I'd be curious to read the quotes about Theo you're referring to. Any links?

[Alex]

The article doesn't really say much we didn't know, although I missed the "saving the chips" part. He's not going to spend money just to spend money.

 

Who is advocating that? I think most people would prefer he do his due diligence, evaluate players and make this team better. Almost any position on this team, with a couple of notable exceptions (C, 2B, maybe 1B depending on Mauer) could be upgraded easily.

[ThePuck]

Nobody is advocating that. I've never heard anyone come close to saying that. People who advocate spending more want players signed that can help the team win.

[TheLeviathan]

Ryan has been saying this stuff for so long he has effectively mislead many, many people about FA. Yes, you don't build through FA, but it is one of only few viable means of improving your team. It isn't some vile thing only the desperate and incompetent dabble in. It can be a very effective way to make huge strides.

 

Let's hope we start seeing I.

[stringer bell]

"Saving his chips" were my words. The point is that every free agent which fits Ryan's self-imposed limited budget is flawed. Ryan seems to constantly undervalue mid-tier guys and so the only ones that seriously consider coming to the Twins are the Correias and Pelfreys of the world. Rummaging around the bargain basement sometimes will net a productive player, but it can't be the only free agents added. Additionally, while the Twins farm system looks to have a lot of really, really good position players, I don't think there is enough pitching. They need to add starting pitching from outside the organization.

[howieramone1406390264]

I'd be curious to read the quotes about Theo you're referring to. Any links?

Tons. Google Theo Epstein once a week like I do. Don't read the ones where they wonder if his wife is Jewish.

[JB_Iowa]

Dave St. Peter, at that same news conference announcing Gardenhire's return, proudly called Ryan "the most disciplined general manager in the game."

 

Being disciplined is good. Being stubborn is not.

 

When the question is only money, as it is with most free agents (let's face it, nobody is blocking much talent now), Ryan needs to lean toward the less stubborn side and take a few more risks.

 

Put your boss' money where his mouth is, Mr. Ryan. We'll all be watching this winter.

[ThePuck]

There seems to be an unusual obsession on Theo Epstein around here. He is not the gm of the cubs. Why his words keep getting compared to Ryan's is baffling. In any event, whatever the cubs are doing is whatever they are doing. Nothing at all to do with the twins.

[Alex]

Tons. Google Theo Epstein once a week like I do. Don't read the ones where they question if his wife is Jewish.

 

Referring to the Cubs top 5 farm system: "Does it help us win big league games right now?" Epstein said. "No. But it will in the future."

- See more at: Chicago Cubs: Clock ticking for Theo Epstein - Chicago Tribune

 

"We need certain things that, in my opinion, we are more likely to find from someone outside the organization at this point,'' Epstein said. "Some things you just can't get from the status quo.'' - See more at: Chicago Cubs: If Theo Epstein is unable to hire Joe Girardi to replace Dale Sveum, he risks compounding his mistake - Chicago Tribune

On free agency: http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/09/18/theo-epstein-speaks-free-agent-binging-on-base-needing-players-regressing-baez-baezing/

 

Now, I had a hard time seeing where Terry Ryan sounds like a visionary, even if his quotes about Free Agency sound very similar. However, as the last article states, he actually did acquire some free agents. They certainly have an opposite view of changing managers and he lays out a pretty clear plan for offense and the types of players he goes after.

 

He's been on pretty much the same clock as Ryan and, imo, has been far more active, though he's be met with comparable lack of success.

 

Now, the question is should we care? Not really. I'm focused on the Twins and what Ryan can do. To that end, I agree with stringer bell's assessment and the fact that he's been so passive has been concerning. I'll continue to advocate that rebuilding does not require consecutive 96+ loss seasons.

[gunnarthor]

"Saving his chips" were my words. The point is that every free agent which fits Ryan's self-imposed limited budget is flawed. Ryan seems to constantly undervalue mid-tier guys and so the only ones that seriously consider coming to the Twins are the Correias and Pelfreys of the world. Rummaging around the bargain basement sometimes will net a productive player, but it can't be the only free agents added. Additionally, while the Twins farm system looks to have a lot of really, really good position players, I don't think there is enough pitching. They need to add starting pitching from outside the organization.

 

Sure, and Ryan will sign some pitchers. But who exactly do you think we should be targeting? Pretend you were the GM a year ago. What would you have done differently? I think too many people think free agency is more than what it is, the finishing touches for creating a contending team.

[Siehbiscuit]

One of the more interesting things to me this off-season will be what the team does at 1B and 3B. Last year, nearly everone (including myself) wanted Parmalee and Plouffe to get full-time at bats. Plouffe certainly did and he failed miserably, so that experiment has got to end. Why not go after a veteran like Mark Reynolds to play third base until June, when Sano comes up? He can also serve as DH and play some 1B. If he gets hot, he has some trade deadline value. If he doesn't, well it's a one year deal and Sano is up any way. The issues for me are the non-moves, not the actual ones he's making. Don't block our prospects, but don't be content with the lineup as is.

[amjgt]

Terry seems to be making it easier to use his own words against him.

 

We know the 2012 Revenue was $214mil - Let's just conservatively assume that stays the same in 2013 & 14 (lower attendance but more TV monies).

 

52% of $214mil = $111.28mil

 

If we did nothing in the offseason our payroll would be almost exactly half of that.

 

How, exactly does Terry plan to approach 52% of revenue going to payroll if he doesn't aggressively pursue free agents?

 

We aren't idiots.

 

I can see the quote coming now... "We weren't comfortable getting up to 52% of revenue with our payroll, with the free agents that were available"

 

Well, Terry, then maybe you should have supplemented a little bit the last couple years by spending on some of the young-ish free agents that were available, with some 5-6 year contracts, instead of waiting until you were $55mil away from your target.

 

They really pigeon holed themselves with the "52%" comment years ago. More and more, I get the feeling Bill Smith wanted to actually adhere to that statement and it ended up costing him his job.

[howieramone1406390264]

Good job Alex you found the right articles. I like what Theo said about offense and the types of players he goes after also. He clearly has a plan and he does explain it well. I believe rebuilding requires the 2nd, 4th, and 5th draft picks consecutively.

[JB_Iowa]

I think too many people think free agency is more than what it is, the finishing touches for creating a contending team.

 

I think it can be more than that. In the case of the Twins, it can be a way of "bridging the gap" while waiting for prospects to arrive.

 

I have wondered why this tweet from Howard Sinker during the October 1 Twins conference call with season ticket holders hasn't gotten more play on Twins Daily:

Howard Sinker ‏@afansview 1 Oct

Fan tells Gardy his team lacks clubhouse leader. Gardy: Just because you're a veteran doesn't mean you're a leader. We're in search of that.

 

The Twins could very well use free agency to bring in someone who can provide that leadership. I'd have to go out and look at the boards on whose available and I havent' done that yet but Free Agency would certainly be a perfect way to fill that need.

[IdahoPilgrim]

If you listen to Theo, Ryan sounds like a visionary. Theo in his own words is transparent, and much slicker, but he's using more or less the same process as Ryan. Seth recently posted, Ryan told him he would not take shortcuts. I don't know how he could have made it clearer than that. Ryan being human is going to make mistakes, and there plenty of areas he can legitimately be criticized for, but the fact of the matter is you can not rebuild a mid-market Major League baseball team in 23 months.

 

I was on vacation the other day, driving around, and I caught Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio. He said basically saying same thing (he was referring to the Cubs franchise), that rebuilding a MLB team is far more difficult than in the other major sports, because the draft only produces results a few years down the road, not immediately, and because adding one or two quality players has less of an effect in baseball than in the other major sports.

 

I'm not taking a position on whether Ryan is handling the rebuild correctly or not (although I do tend to favor the build-from-within approach) but I do think it is too early to judge his efforts. A realistic goal for next year would be to win 80 games, and then contend in 2015.

[Alex]

Good job Alex you found the right articles. I like what Theo said about offense and the types of players he goes after also. He clearly has a plan and he does explain it well. I believe rebuilding requires the 2nd, 4th, and 5th draft picks consecutively.

 

How convenient! Plenty of mid-market teams or less have been able to rebuild and do so while being competitive without a single pick that high.

 

As others have mentioned, if you're just using the draft it's going to be a long wait for those players. Luckily for Ryan, Buxton is moving very quickly and the previous GM already had other seeds of the rebuild in place before he arrived otherwise it would be an even longer wait (assuming all works out).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Something good to keep in mind:

 

Formula for making playoffs: There's not one | MLB.com: News

[Major League Ready]

I have this perception that FAs are generally not a very good value and that they are unlikely to get us over the hump so to speak. Of course, we all know that it is not hard to put together numbers to support whatever you like. For example, we are all aware that there have been many failures with FA SPs but it is not my goal to prove that it can be a gigantic failure. So, let’s save SPs for last. Let’s look at the top position players from the past two years. I was interested to see what they produced in terms of WAR and also their production per dollar spent. In other words, how much salary does it cost to add one WAR in free agency.

 

-----------------Years/Salary - AVE --- War -- $/WAR

 

2013 J. Hamilton- 5 - 123 --- 24.6 --- 1.9 -- 12.9

2013 M. Bourn -- 4 --- 48 --- 12.0 --- 2.0 -- 6.0

2013 N. Swisher- 4 --- 56 --- 14.0 --- 2.4 --- 5.8

2013 BJ Upton--- 5 --- 75 --- 15.0 ---(0.6) -- N/A

2012 A. Pujols-- 10 -- 250 --- 25.0 --- 0.7 --- 35.7

2012 P. Fielder--- 9 -- 214 --- 23.8 --- 2.2 --- 10.8

2012 Jose Reyes- 6 -- 106 --- 17.7 --- 2.2 --- 8.0

2012 A. Ramirez- 3 -- 36 ----- 12.0 --- 1. 4 --- 8.6

TOTAL ....................... 908 ---- 144 ---- 12

AVERAGE ......... 5.8 - 113.5 --- 18.0 --- 1.5

 

11.8 per 1 WAR

 

WAR production for this group was 1.5 wins/player at a cost of 11.8M per WAR.

 

What about FA pitching? I think it is safe to say that had Ryan would have gone wild and signed Greinke and Jackson, many fans would have done back flips of joy. The two of them produce a combined WAR of 4.9 with a combined salary of $37.5/yr. .

 

So, if we spend $60M on free agents and our success is on par with the last two year’s FAs, am I being pessimistic to believe it won’t help much if we spend 50M?

[Alex]

I have this perception that FAs are generally not a very good value and that they are unlikely to get us over the hump so to speak. Of course, we all know that it is not hard to put together numbers to support whatever you like. For example, we are all aware that there have been many failures with FA SPs but it is not my goal to prove that it can be a gigantic failure. So, let’s save SPs for last. Let’s look at the top position players from the past two years. I was interested to see what they produced in terms of WAR and also their production per dollar spent. In other words, how much salary does it cost to add one WAR in free agency.

 

YEARS SALARY AVE War $/WAR

 

2013 J. Hamilton 5 --- 123 --- 24.6 --- 1.9 12.9

2013 M. Bourn 4 --- 48 --- 12.0 --- 2.0 6.0

2013 N. Swisher 4 --- 56 --- 14.0 --- 2.4 5.8

2013 BJ Upton 5 --- 75 --- 15.0 ---(0.6) N/A

2012 A. Pujols 10 --- 250 --- 25.0 --- 0.7 35.7

2012 P. Fielder 9 --- 214 --- 23.8 --- 2.2 10.8

2012 Jose Reyes 6 --- 106 --- 17.7 --- 2.2 8.0

2012 A. Ramirez 3 --- 36 --- 12.0 --- 1. 4 8.6

TOTAL ................. 908 144 12

AVERAGE .... 5.8 113.5 18.0 1.5

 

11.8 per 1 WAR

 

WAR production for this group was 1.5 wins/player at a cost of 11.8M per WAR.

 

What about FA pitching? I think it is safe to say that had Ryan would have gone wild and signed Greinke and Jackson, many fans would have done back flips of joy. The two of them produce a combined WAR of 4.9 with a combined salary of $37.5/yr. .

 

So, if we spend $60M on free agents and our success is on par with the last two year’s FAs, am I being pessimistic to believe it won’t help much if we spend 50M?

 

Yes, in that a I think every one of those players would have been an improvement for the Twins.

 

It's no secret that FA are both high risk and tend to be overpaid in dollar amount vs. WAR (and it looks like about 2x as much as one would expect), and taking basically just the highest paid FA is going to scew that quite a bit.

 

Either way, eschewing FA as a rule is just an option the Twins don't have. They need to find some help out there or they'll lose more fans.

[drivlikejehu]

The risks of free agency are well known. But the question remains why a Twins fan should prefer for Pohlad to pocket the money rather than trying to improve the team, even if its just from 66 wins to the low 70s. The point of losing more, on purpose, to further enrich a billionaire just doesn't make sense to me.

[ThePuck]

If you have a whole team of replacement level players (0.0 WAR), they are expected to win 52 games (some mention 48 wins). The more players you can get into the positive WAR side, the better chance you have of doing better. Not only that, but getting a quality starting pitcher may have a trickle down effect on the WAR of bullpen members (less wear, better quality). If a player has to play out of his normal position, let's say a 2B has to play shortstop, because he's the best option at shortstop, his WAR is likely affected (because of the defense part); however, if you get a proper shortstop in there, that likely improves the WAR of the shortstop position and, with the move back to 2B, the WAR of the player previously out of position. Makes no sense to not go after as many quality players as possible because it's not just their WAR you take into account, but the effect having a player like that may effect other players WAR as well.

[Rosterman]

I just keep getting in trouble thinking about that 52%.

 

What is the breakdown of the other 48%:

- Twins administrations

- Tickets/Sales/Marketing

- Scouting

- Minor League Player Development (players, coaches, facilities)

- Draft picks monies ($6 million or so)

- International signings ($3 million or so)

- Stadium operations

- Payment to City/State

- Concessions cost vs. profit

 

How do the Twins arrive at $200 million in revenue:

- ticket sales

- advertising

- shared MLB monies

- media

 

Any ideas on numbers for any of the above categories?

[gunnarthor]

The risks of free agency are well known. But the question remains why a Twins fan should prefer for Pohlad to pocket the money rather than trying to improve the team, even if its just from 66 wins to the low 70s. The point of losing more, on purpose, to further enrich a billionaire just doesn't make sense to me.

 

Nobody wants the Polhads to get richer. Screw them. I hate them. But that doesn't mean you have to ignore the obvious - that the Twins are rebuilding and it doesn't make sense to spend much in FA to go from a 96 loss team to a 90 loss team. I have yet to see anyone suggest a reasonably likely scenario that Ryan could have done last year after the season that was better than what he did do.

[Guest USAFChief]

Nobody wants the Polhads to get richer. Screw them. I hate them. But that doesn't mean you have to ignore the obvious - that the Twins are rebuilding and it doesn't make sense to spend much in FA to go from a 96 loss team to a 90 loss team. I have yet to see anyone suggest a reasonably likely scenario that Ryan could have done last year after the season that was better than what he did do.

Even if all he had done was improve a 96 loss team to a 90 loss team, that would mean he's starting this winter's work with a team that is 6 wins better than what he has to work with now.

 

I strongly disagree with the often stated position that free agency is only to supply the "finishing touche" to a team that is already good. Free agency is a way to add talent to ANY team and should be used regularly...just like the draft, etc.

 

Ignoring free agency, whether dumpster diving or adding premier talent, should never be an option.

[Major League Ready]

Even if all he had done was improve a 96 loss team to a 90 loss team, that would mean he's starting this winter's work with a team that is 6 wins better than what he has to work with now.

 

I strongly disagree with the often stated position that free agency is only to supply the "finishing touche" to a team that is already good. Free agency is a way to add talent to ANY team and should be used regularly...just like the draft, etc.

 

Ignoring free agency, whether dumpster diving or adding premier talent, should never be an option.

 

No, if you would signed the free agents mention, you would have spent your entire budget and would have to hope for improvement from within. You would also need to hope the performance of the FA you hired did not decline.

 

For the record, I think they should spend the money. I don't think anyone advocates the Twins should ignore FA. Based on the reports from last year, the Twins were very active. We can say they did not get the job done if you think the job is signing a FA at any cost. I think the job is getting production per dollar spent because you are going to get beat if you don't given many other teams can outspend us. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you pass on.

 

 

Having said the above, this has little to do with the point I was trying to make. FA spending gets more attention and division than any other topic and the numbers in the previous post are very telling IMO in terms of the relative potential impact of FA for a mid-market or small market team. As the A's and Ray's have demonstrated, drafting and developing talent, especially SPs is the most fundamental element of sucess in MLB. I am far more concerned about scouting, drafting, development, and locking the right players up early in the manner utilized by the Rays. I don't care if they ever sign a $12M/yr FA as long as they draft and retain the right talent. Follow the same model as the As and Rays with an extra $30 or 40M to spend on retention and we would be in great shape.