Twins versus Rays -- Analytical game thread

[glunn]

As an experiment, we are adding this additional game thread for the series against the Rays. The purpose of this thread is for serious/substantive discussion about the game, with less frivolity and off-topic discussion than in the main game thread.

 

Users are encouraged to post in either thread or both threads as you wish.

 

This is an experiment and may or may not continue depending on how it goes.

[nicksaviking]

Is witty banter permitted?

[glunn]

Is witty banter permitted?

 

This is an experiment so I am not sure. My sense is that it should be OK so long as it is related to the game, but I am hoping that the users of this thread can work this out as it goes along.

[DaveW]

Yay, baseball!

[Winston Smith]

Is there a way to convert baseball metrics into feet and inches? It's so confusing!

[gil4]

We might need to make the other thread the analytical one.

[twinsnorth49]

Serious, substantive analysis of the Twins?

 

[twinsnorth49]

Where's the thread to take our minds off Kevin Correia pitching tonight...................and next year?

[snepp]

Serious, substantive analysis of the Twins?

 

If it makes you feel better we can discuss all the good things the Rays do instead.

 

Then cry a little on the inside.

[Winston Smith]

I'm ready:

http://allkiddingasidebeth.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/calculatorhandheldabacus.jpg?w=262

[jokin]

If it makes you feel better we can discuss all the good things the Rays do instead.

 

Then cry a little on the inside.

 

I resemble that remark. (sniff-sniff)

[stringer bell]

Why have the Rays "owned" the Twins? I would put Tampa in a list with the Yankees, Toronto, and (this year) Kansas City. The easy answer would be good pitching, but Toronto really doesn't fit that benchmark. My recollection over the last few years is that Tampa either dominates with pitching or else wins a close one with late game "clutchness".

[stringer bell]

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.

[jorgenswest]

I was trying to find it.

 

I would guess they hit poorly in every situation. With some very poor hitters in the line up it must be easy to pitch around better hitters. Those hitters either take a walk or try to be aggressive and swing at a pitch difficult to hit.

[Winston Smith]

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.

 

Better players tend to do better.

[snepp]

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.

 

It's certainly not good. A quickie glance at their batting splits isn't pretty.

 

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table]

[TD=align: right].221[/TD]

[TD=align: right].319[/TD]

[TD=align: right].322[/TD]

[TD=align: right].641[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

That's the offense's line with 2 out and RISP, about 20 points of BA and 70 points of OPS below AL average.

 

The pitching side of this same stat is, to put it mildly, putrid.

 

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table]

[TD=align: right].268[/TD]

[TD=align: right].352[/TD]

[TD=align: right].434[/TD]

[TD=align: right].786

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

That's 30 points of BA and 70 points of OPS higher than AL average.

[snepp]

Put the two lines together (go South Dakota math!), and you've got the opponents hitting nearly 50 points higher, and nearly 150 points of OPS better, in that situation.

[stringer bell]

Ok, Gardy, you've made your point. A .240 hitter is the best you've got so he's hitting third. Well, it isn't really happening for Dozier in the #3 hole, so get him out of there.

[jorgenswest]

Dozier certainly saw better pitches with Mauer behind him. Not much in this line up to protect anyone.

[PseudoSABR]

I think this is potentially a great idea, but I think it will be hard to get this going as we're a losing club right now. I know, I'll check in both threads to see what everyone has to say.

[gil4]

Short thread. Must be analyzing the offense tonight.

[snepp]

I think this is potentially a great idea, but I think it will be hard to get this going as we're a losing club right now.

 

Yeah, that's generally been the consensus. At the tail end of another brutal year there's little fresh ground left to cover.

[stringer bell]

Friday nights are typically slow anyway and with the Twins having two chances to win (slim and none) tonight and the likelihood of anything positive happening also pretty small, it figures that there wouldn't be a lot of interest.

[snepp]

12th shutout of the season for the Twins.

 

 

Random comparison:

 

12 - White Sox

13 - Astros

16 - Marlins

 

11 - Red Sox

13 - Braves

[snepp]

Twins runs: 6

 

Rays runs: 4

 

 

That's a win.

[LaBombo]

Twins runs: 6

 

Rays runs: 4

 

 

That's a win.

Also, hitting home runs has a positive effect on the Twins' offense.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Also, hitting home runs has a positive effect on the Twins' offense.

 

How that for analytical?

[gil4]

Twins runs: 6

 

Rays runs: 4

 

 

That's a win.

 

That's something you don't see very often.