Mike Pelfrey

[Brandon]

But why sign Pelfrey? Because of the familiarity? There will be plenty of other options, the Twins don't have to settle for him simply because they already have uniforms with his name on them.

 

This familiarity stuff has aided largely to the stagnation in this organization in my opinion. Not enough coaching, front office, scouting or player turnover occurs considering all the areas in need of repair. No one wants to reach outside of their comfort zone unless their back is against the wall. I don't think a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush when the bird lays an egg like the Twins have been doing three years running.

 

Why sign Pelfry? 3 reasons. 1. We know he wants to be here and is adamant about that. 2 he is solid enough to resign and 3. we still have other holes in the rotation to fill so we wont be done with just 1 signing so we have to get another pitcher or 2.

 

I think the Twins are looking for making a solid 1-5 rotation to do that means having average pitchers capable of throwing 180 - 200 innings.

[Willihammer]

So the question to me boils down to health - a) have past health issues degraded his talent, and will his future health be a good risk? I'm of the opinion that his July/August 2013 is a long enough stretch to confirm his talent remains high enough. What I don't know is his health prognosis:

• what's the experience with TJ patients at this future stage of recovery?
  
• was his age 25 blip also the elbow? or does he also have forearm, shoulder, leg, or other weak points that could flare up again?
  

Bottom line, for forecasting purposes I think Pelfrey is a much tougher nut to crack than just looking at aggregate career or 2013 totals, and a careful look suggests where to look further.

 

Baseball Prospectus has pretty comprehensive injury history on players:

 

Mike Pelfrey | Baseball Prospectus

 

2006: shoulder strain for month of August

Mar 2009: lower leg strain

Apr 2009: Forearm inflammation

2010: Bilateral knee soreness (ha!)

shoulder again, general arm fatigue, neck, thigh, then the elbow

 

Pitching is hazardous.

[darin617]

Pelfrey is not good and his career numbers show this. And it is this kind of mismanagement of smaller amounts of money that drives me insane about this organization, from Punto to Pelfrey.

 

Why are you so negative? Look at the teams he has played on, the Twins defense is poor by their standards the Twins offense has been quite offensive most of the season in scoring more than a couple of runs a game. If you look at the FA class of pitchers available their are not many pitchers above him in the Twins bargain bin price range. 2YR $12M would be a great deal if he would accept it.

Back to the negativity, if you hate the guy that is your business but you don't need to add multiple posts. Take a deep breath and count to 10 and you should be fine Shane.......

[Oxtung]

Pelfry added a pitch in 2012 a cutter to go with hius sinker. the results of that added pitch was a 19 inning sample size plus this year.

 

Pelfrey hasn't thrown a cutter this season according to fangraphs.

 

Pelfrey hasn't been great but would you really rather have Diamond, Worley ,Walters, Hendriks, Albers or Hernandez . None of them have performed that well & I don't see fantastic upside from any of them.

 

Yes. They are all several years younger, have a chance to improve, cost nothing, have years of control left and the Twins won't be committed to them long term.

 

I think the High Calibre arm is going to be Meyer. So the 2015 rotation would be Meyer/ Pelfry/ Dedunno (at this point if healthy) and hopefully Gibson with one more spot to fill.

 

So Meyer in your scenario seems to be Moses. He will lead us to the Promised Land. Of course Moses don't mean squat when Detroit is rolling with Shiva, Muhammad, Ra and the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

 

 

I don't understand the logic in signing Pelfrey. The Twins have several back of the rotation options. In addition every season you can pick up a pitcher on a 1 year contract to fill that role. Why would we want to commit multiple years to him? Is anyone thinking, "Yes, we've got Corriea for a second season! OMG am I glad we signed him to a multi-year deal. Whew!"

 

What the Twins are missing is about 3 front of the rotation arms. Even if Meyer pans out he isn't going to make us a contender by himself. He needs support.

 

Acquire a legit front of the rotation starter, look for a potential bounce back starter (J.Johnson seems ideal candidate), try to get a older but legit starter like Kuroda or Colon, or roll with the young guys and maybe one improves. Signing another back of the rotation starter makes no sense.

[Brandon]

Pelfrey hasn't thrown a cutter this season according to fangraphs.

 

So Meyer in your scenario seems to be Moses. He will lead us to the Promised Land. Of course Moses don't mean squat when Detroit is rolling with Shiva, Muhammad, Ra and the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

 

 

I don't understand the logic in signing Pelfrey. The Twins have several back of the rotation options. In addition every season you can pick up a pitcher on a 1 year contract to fill that role. Why would we want to commit multiple years to him? Is anyone thinking, "Yes, we've got Corriea for a second season! OMG am I glad we signed him to a multi-year deal. Whew!"

 

What the Twins are missing is about 3 front of the rotation arms. Even if Meyer pans out he isn't going to make us a contender by himself. He needs support.

 

Acquire a legit front of the rotation starter, look for a potential bounce back starter (J.Johnson seems ideal candidate), try to get a older but legit starter like Kuroda or Colon, or roll with the young guys and maybe one improves. Signing another back of the rotation starter makes no sense.

 

There are several ways to build a pitching staff. The Twins appear to be focused on a more cost effective plan of average starting and inexpensive deep bullpen, while Detroit is the other way with a deep rotation and thin rotation bullpen. There are other factors that go into a winning team

 

I am not saying Pelfry is the best signing just a highly likely one and one that fits a pattern that I see the Twins doing.

[stringer bell]

I would say that the Twins have several back of the rotation starters. Pelfrey is probably more of a sure thing than anyone but Correia. He wouldn't be great, but he would likely pitch a lot of innings.

[notoriousgod71]

Pelfrey=Pavano

[Oxtung]

There are several ways to build a pitching staff. The Twins appear to be focused on a more cost effective plan of average starting and inexpensive deep bullpen, while Detroit is the other way with a deep rotation and thin rotation bullpen. There are other factors that go into a winning team

 

I am not saying Pelfry is the best signing just a highly likely one and one that fits a pattern that I see the Twins doing.

 

Let's look at the recent American League World Series contenders starting rotations. This is where each team ranked amongst American League teams for the regular season.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]ERA

K/9

K/BB

OOPS*

2012 Tigers

2

2

1

5

2011 Rangers

3

1

4

2

2010 Rangers

7

4

7

4

2009 Yankees

5

1

9

4

2008 Rays

2

4

5

5

2007 Red Sox

2

2

5

1

2006 Tigers

1

8

6

2

2005 White Sox

2

9

4

2

2004 Red Sox

3

1

2

1

2003 Yankees

3

1

1

2

Average

3

3.1

4.4

2.8

2013 Twins

15

15

15

15

[/TABLE]

*OOPS= Opponents OPS.

 

In order to make the World Series over the last 10 years a great starting pitching staff has been a requirement. They have to be able to limit opponents OPS which is perhaps derived by their strikeouts (this is certainly a debatable point).

 

The Twins can't shoot for an "OK" rotation with a great bullpen and hope to compete for a World Series. They need front of the rotation pitchers. We hope there are a few 1-3 starters already in the system; Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, etc...; but none of those are a guarantee and most are several years from even debuting with the Twins.

 

IMO the Twins need to acquire more high upside arms somehow. There seem to be 4 ways to do this. First, and currently easiest probably, is to draft or sign them internationally (not including Cubans) but that puts them even further away than Stewart. Second, they could be traded for, but that doesn't add talent to a system it only changes the position played. Third, the Twins could sign a Greinke or Sanchez in free agency (this could include Cubans and Japanese pitchers as well), but that seems highly unlikely with Ryan at the helm. Fourth, the Twins could attempt to sign some high upside pitchers on short term deals, this could be due to age or injury, and trade them for prospects.

 

Mike Pelfrey doesn't fit into any of those categories. He isn't good enough to help the Twins long term nor is he good enough to bring back a front of the rotation prospect in a trade.

[Shane Wahl]

Why are you so negative? Look at the teams he has played on, the Twins defense is poor by their standards the Twins offense has been quite offensive most of the season in scoring more than a couple of runs a game. If you look at the FA class of pitchers available their are not many pitchers above him in the Twins bargain bin price range. 2YR $12M would be a great deal if he would accept it.

Back to the negativity, if you hate the guy that is your business but you don't need to add multiple posts. Take a deep breath and count to 10 and you should be fine Shane.......

 

If there weren't multiple posts about signing a replacement level or worse pitcher for millions of bucks (and now a "bargain" of 2/$12 million), I wouldn't need to make multiple posts pointing out how terribly silly such a move is. Full stop.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, the guy did have 2 seasons with winning records, ERAs in the 3s, and over 200 innings pitched. How is that sucky?

 

What about the other 4 seasons?

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes, but two of those were when he was 22 and 23, shuttling to and from the minors, 93 innings total. Why don't we count 2012 and his ERA of 2.29 as well?

 

Before this season had had 2 good seasons and 2 not so good as a full-time major league pitcher. People are making it sound like he was atrocious, which is an exaggeration.

 

That's not what I'm saying at all.

I'm simply saying lets not get too attached to a recent 11 game stretch.

[Lefty74]

I agree with Brandon--There is no cavalry coming to save Twins pitching in 2014. Pelfrey will eat innings and is getting better. Coming off TJ surgery the odds are high that he will be better in 2014. We need pitching, many of the FA suggestions other have made are no better and in most cases worse. He's far from perfect, but he's more than functional.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree with Brandon--There is no cavalry coming to save Twins pitching in 2014. Pelfrey will eat innings and is getting better. Coming off TJ surgery the odds are high that he will be better in 2014. We need pitching, many of the FA suggestions other have made are no better and in most cases worse. He's far from perfect, but he's more than functional.

 

I just don't believe that he can be signed on a 1 year deal.

If you have to sign him to a multi year deal, than this portion of your argument becomes less relevant.

[Lefty74]

Mr Brooks--I think Terry Ryan should try to sign him to a multi year deal. Again, he's far from perfect, but I just don't see a wave of talent behind him in the farm system or via FA that would be better. It's probably more a sad statement on the current pitching in the farm system; many potential back of the rotation guys and very few front line starters. Just seems to me that we needs some mid-90's guys who can eat innings and he fits the requirments. Won't be winning the Cy Young award, but I believe he'll be pretty good over the next few years.

[Kwak]

Let's look at the recent American League World Series contenders starting rotations. This is where each team ranked amongst American League teams for the regular season.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]ERA

K/9

K/BB

OOPS*

2012 Tigers

2

2

1

5

2011 Rangers

3

1

4

2

2010 Rangers

7

4

7

4

2009 Yankees

5

1

9

4

2008 Rays

2

4

5

5

2007 Red Sox

2

2

5

1

2006 Tigers

1

8

6

2

2005 White Sox

2

9

4

2

2004 Red Sox

3

1

2

1

2003 Yankees

3

1

1

2

Average

3

3.1

4.4

2.8

2013 Twins

15

15

15

15

[/TABLE]

*OOPS= Opponents OPS.

 

In order to make the World Series over the last 10 years a great starting pitching staff has been a requirement. They have to be able to limit opponents OPS which is perhaps derived by their strikeouts (this is certainly a debatable point).

 

The Twins can't shoot for an "OK" rotation with a great bullpen and hope to compete for a World Series. They need front of the rotation pitchers. We hope there are a few 1-3 starters already in the system; Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, etc...; but none of those are a guarantee and most are several years from even debuting with the Twins.

 

IMO the Twins need to acquire more high upside arms somehow. There seem to be 4 ways to do this. First, and currently easiest probably, is to draft or sign them internationally (not including Cubans) but that puts them even further away than Stewart. Second, they could be traded for, but that doesn't add talent to a system it only changes the position played. Third, the Twins could sign a Greinke or Sanchez in free agency (this could include Cubans and Japanese pitchers as well), but that seems highly unlikely with Ryan at the helm. Fourth, the Twins could attempt to sign some high upside pitchers on short term deals, this could be due to age or injury, and trade them for prospects.

 

Mike Pelfrey doesn't fit into any of those categories. He isn't good enough to help the Twins long term nor is he good enough to bring back a front of the rotation prospect in a trade.

 

 

A very good post--one flawed assumption--that the Twins are trying to build the #1 team (for a season) to be the World Series favorite. Actions from 2000-present indicate that the Twins' plan is to have an average rotation, good bullpen (far cheaper than the inverse), good enough to make the playoffs, --followed by a "ya' never know" attitude--and hope they catch lightning in a bottle during the playoffs. It would require a complete change in management to alter that philosophy.

[notoriousgod71]

A very good post--one flawed assumption--that the Twins are trying to build the #1 team (for a season) to be the World Series favorite. Actions from 2000-present indicate that the Twins' plan is to have an average rotation, good bullpen (far cheaper than the inverse), good enough to make the playoffs, --followed by a "ya' never know" attitude--and hope they catch lightning in a bottle during the playoffs. It would require a complete change in management to alter that philosophy.

 

This post and the post that was being replied to by Oxtung are exactly it. Factual evidence over a decade on what it takes to achieve a goal and then the realization that the Twins really are not that interested in spending the money to achieve that goal.

[jorgenswest]

This post and the post that was being replied to by Oxtung are exactly it. Factual evidence over a decade on what it takes to achieve a goal and then the realization that the Twins really are not that interested in spending the money to achieve that goal.

 

The Twins had the 9th ranked payroll in 2011 while ranking 13th in team revenue.

[notoriousgod71]

The Twins had the 9th ranked payroll in 2011 while ranking 13th in team revenue.

 

And also did not come close to having a single player that exhibited any of the traits of a strong rotation with the exception of Liriano's K/9.

[Oxtung]

I agree with Brandon--There is no cavalry coming to save Twins pitching in 2014. Pelfrey will eat innings and is getting better. Coming off TJ surgery the odds are high that he will be better in 2014. We need pitching, many of the FA suggestions other have made are no better and in most cases worse. He's far from perfect, but he's more than functional.

 

Why is functional the goal? Why shouldn't every move be made around returning to contention?

[Mr. Brooks]

Mr Brooks--I think Terry Ryan should try to sign him to a multi year deal. Again, he's far from perfect, but I just don't see a wave of talent behind him in the farm system or via FA that would be better. It's probably more a sad statement on the current pitching in the farm system; many potential back of the rotation guys and very few front line starters. Just seems to me that we needs some mid-90's guys who can eat innings and he fits the requirments. Won't be winning the Cy Young award, but I believe he'll be pretty good over the next few years.

 

I couldn't disagree more.

For his career, Pelfrey has a below average ERA+. He's at best a #4 on a bad team, or a #5 on a good team.

The goal should be to get better. How can you get better by just bringing back the same cast from 90 loss teams? Same argument as Morneau, I don't get how bringing back the same cast of characters makes you better.

Here is how you get better.

2014: Sign a #2 or #3 (Lincecum, Johnson, Hughes or Tanaka), promote Gibson to rotation. Promote May and Meyer sometime after the ASB.

2015: Sign or trade for a #1 or #2. Promote Berrios sometime after ASB.

 

By mid 2015, this gives you a rotation of:

#1/#2 signed/traded for in 2015

Meyer

#2/#3 signed this winter

Gibson

Berrios/May

 

 

That still leaves you with the Deduno, Hendriks, Diamond, Worley cast to choose from for depth if someone struggles or get hurts.

You will also have Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Ryan Eades, and a few other prospects (possibly our 2014 top 6 pick), knocking on the door by then too.

Tell me where Pelfrey fits into this rotation if you sign him to a long term contract?

 

And even if you don't have faith that Ryan will sign any significant FA arms, he still doesn't fit here by mid 2015.

Diamond is not as good as he was in 2012, but he's not as bad as he was this year either.

Even with no upgrades, you could have this rotation by mid 2015:

 

Meyer

Gibson

Berrios

May

Diamond/Worley/Deduno

 

And you still have Stewart, Gonsalves, Eades, etc. knocking on the door.

 

Unless all of our pitching prospects fail, I just can't see any scenario where we are not regretting years 2+ of any long term deal given to Pelfrey.

[ashbury]

Baseball Prospectus has pretty comprehensive injury history on players:

 

Mike Pelfrey | Baseball Prospectus

 

2006: shoulder strain for month of August

Mar 2009: lower leg strain

Apr 2009: Forearm inflammation

2010: Bilateral knee soreness (ha!)

shoulder again, general arm fatigue, neck, thigh, then the elbow

 

Pitching is hazardous.

 

Thanks. This is great.

 

He kind of hit the trifecta for the body parts I named. Although, looking at the BP page, these were all of short duration. I'd need to be as smart as the Twins trainers to interpret this information.

 

And speaking of humorous memes like Twins trainers, I did appreciate your highlighting "bilateral". Always good for a laff. If concussions weren't such serious juju, a bilateral joke could probably be coined for Mauer's current woes.

[Shane Wahl]

If Mauer catches another game this year I would hope that both Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire are fired on the spot. And I am not kidding at all. That would almost have to be a time for the owner to actually step in and say "No."