26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[old nurse]

Old Nurse, the correlations that you point out were only for one season.

In the larger, 6 season sample size, FIP was more accurate than ERA both in terms of correlation and RMSE.

In fact, ERA was the LEAST accurate (of 8) measure in both methods.

 

What was the correlation coefficient? It can still be more accurate but a coefficient that is still low.

[ashbury]

and then Worley, Gibson, and Pelfry spit the bit.

 

You might have a different meaning in mind for the idiom "spit the bit" than I am familiar with. Pelf missed a couple of starts in late June, otherwise he's gone out there for this regular turn. I don't notice any gaps in Gibson's season. Worley's been hurt, I guess you could cast aspersions about his toughness if you insist.

[Mr. Brooks]

What was the correlation coefficient? It can still be more accurate but a coefficient that is still low.

 

I wasn't arguing that it was perfect. Simply that it was more accurate than ERA.

[jokin]

Are Pitching Projections Better Than ERA Estimators? | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Critical pull-quotes from your cited article in support of SIERA:

 

The lesson learned from the last RMSE table is that, over time, projections do a better job being closer to future ERA than ERA estimators — other than SIERA. But SIERA remains on top.

 

ERA estimators only use one year of data. Using more data and more highly regressed data should significantly benefit projection systems. But, (it turns out that) that extra information isn’t enough to overtake the benefit of SIERA.....When predicting the future, using several years of SIERA will do better than one year.

 

After all, the gap in RMSE is small between SIERA and projection systems, but SIERA’s correlation advantage is far larger. At this stage, using SIERA as a jumping off point appears to be the best method to project pitcher performance.

[old nurse]

I wasn't arguing that it was perfect. Simply that it was more accurate than ERA.

 

What is the point of arguing which method is accurate when none really are? My point all along.

[old nurse]

Critical pull-quotes from your cited article in support of SIERA:

 

Again, better guess yes, any reliability, no.

[Mike Sixel]

Shockingly, he appears headed to the Dodgers for $32MM. I'm sure the Twins could not match that much money, or maybe Cubans don't want to come here, or something.....

[cmb0252]

Shockingly, he appears headed to the Dodgers for $32MM. I'm sure the Twins could not match that much money, or maybe Cubans don't want to come here, or something.....

 

Good. More money for Tanaka!

[LaBombo]

Shockingly, he appears headed to the Dodgers for $32MM. I'm sure the Twins could not match that much money, or maybe Cubans don't want to come here, or something.....

Puig having taken the same route to the majors from Cuba may have given them a little bit of an edge over the handful of other teams that throw that kind of money at international guys.

[Mike Sixel]

Good. More money for Tanaka!

 

Dreamer!*

 

*not that there's anything wrong with that :

[Thegrin]

Who knows that the Twins didn't also offer $32 million ? Would you be surprised that he chose the Dodgers instead ? Would that stop complaints that the Twins won't spend the money ? When we don't know all the facts it isn't fair to make the worst case assumption.

[Mike Sixel]

Who knows that the Twins didn't also offer $32 million ? Would you be surprised that he chose the Dodgers instead ? Would that stop complaints that the Twins won't spend the money ? When we don't know all the facts it isn't fair to make the worst case assumption.

 

As I've said before, if Ryan can't or won't sign FAs, that's his issue. It is his job to acquire talent, and if he can't or won't do that, then he should be replaced.

 

I don't care why no FA ever comes here, but it is on the GM to acquire talent, and he's not doing that, imo.

 

YMMV, you may think Ryan is doing a great job, but I don't see much evidence of that, frankly.

[nicksaviking]

Who knows that the Twins didn't also offer $32 million ? Would you be surprised that he chose the Dodgers instead ? Would that stop complaints that the Twins won't spend the money ? When we don't know all the facts it isn't fair to make the worst case assumption.

 

So the hypothetical situation is where the Dodgers and Twins both offered the same money and he chose the Dodgers? Duh, no one is claiming in that situation he would not pick the Dodgers due to the bigger market, the willingness to spend to win and the extra endorsement opportunities.

 

It's not equal situations, so the Twins need to spend more, which they can if they want. So if his deal is $32 million for seven years with the Dodgers, the Twins need to offer $36 for seven years, or even better, $32 for six years. I'm not saying the Twins need to sign him, I'm just saying it is not impossible to outbid the big markets as you imply. The money is there.

[Mike Sixel]

btw, I'm not making any assumptions....I'm judging Ryan on his actions and the outcomes they produce. This is a legit FA that was available for anyone to sign, and they didn't. I'll also rip them if they don't sign Tanaka, or praise them if they do. I won't assume they bid more or less, or that they bid at all. I'll just judge Ryan on the outcome.

[LaBombo]

Who knows that the Twins didn't also offer $32 million ? Would you be surprised that he chose the Dodgers instead ? Would that stop complaints that the Twins won't spend the money ? When we don't know all the facts it isn't fair to make the worst case assumption.

You're right, we don't know. But if your only two possible reasons are that either a team that's cut payroll by more than 32 million didn't offer 32 million (or more) to Guerrero or that the state of Minnesota and its baseball organization are universally despised by prospective free agents, I know which way I'm leaning.

[cmb0252]

So the hypothetical situation is where the Dodgers and Twins both offered the same money and he chose the Dodgers? Duh, no one is claiming in that situation he would not pick the Dodgers due to the bigger market, the willingness to spend to win and the extra endorsement opportunities.

 

It's not equal situations, so the Twins need to spend more, which they can if they want. So if his deal is $32 million for seven years with the Dodgers, the Twins need to offer $36 for seven years, or even better, $32 for six years. I'm not saying the Twins need to sign him, I'm just saying it is not impossible to outbid the big markets as you imply. The money is there.

 

The problem with this scenario is what stops the Dodgers from counter offering our offer? At some point you have to cut your loses and move on just being happy you up bid another team. I'm not saying that is what happened, no one outside of the front office knows, but getting into a bidding war with Dodgers is a dangerous game!

[Mike Sixel]

The problem with this scenario is what stops the Dodgers from counter offering our offer? At some point you have to cut your loses and move on just being happy you up bid another team. I'm not saying that is what happened, no one outside of the front office knows, but getting into a bidding war with Dodgers is a dangerous game!

 

 

it would appear (since the simplist answer is often correct) that Ryan cuts his losses a lot sooner than other teams.....he's only willing to play the downside risk, not the upside risk.

 

Admittedly, that IS only a hypothesis, but it is based on over a decade of observation. I could certainly be wrong, I agree, it is certainly possible Ryan has often outbid other teams, and that no expensive FA ever wanted to come here (except under McPhail, of course, when it did happen).

[nicksaviking]

The problem with this scenario is what stops the Dodgers from counter offering our offer? At some point you have to cut your loses and move on just being happy you up bid another team. I'm not saying that is what happened, no one outside of the front office knows, but getting into a bidding war with Dodgers is a dangerous game!

 

Then you've made the Dodgers spend more than they wanted to. I don't see any reason why that wouldn't be a bonus. Inflate their payroll and the amount they pay into the revenue sharing pot. I don't see what's dangerous about it, at some point you stop your bid if the Dodgers make it obscene, but it's not like $4.5-5 million a year is ever going to cripple the budget even if you're wrong.

 

Again, I'm not saying the Twins needed to sign him, just saying he is almost certainly well within their ability and comfort zone.

[howieramone1406390264]

btw, I'm not making any assumptions....I'm judging Ryan on his actions and the outcomes they produce. This is a legit FA that was available for anyone to sign, and they didn't. I'll also rip them if they don't sign Tanaka, or praise them if they do. I won't assume they bid more or less, or that they bid at all. I'll just judge Ryan on the outcome.

 

Mike, lets just pretend Ryan bid 50M and won the prize. He already has Florimon and Santana and has a pretty good idea how they fit in. He also knows the 2014 draft is the deepest at SS in the past decade. It's always important to remember Ryan sees a much bigger picture than we do. If I were him, I would spend it on starting pitching and little else.

[cmb0252]

While the Twins were one of the handful of teams interested in him there is no evidence on how interested we really were. There were a ton of mixed reports on what type of player Guerrero is. Is he a 2B or SS? If he profiles as a 2B is it worth spending money on what looks like a position of strength? Can he adjust to big league pitching (especially breaking balls)? Will his raw power play in the bigs? Has his two years away from baseball hurt his game? Does he like lakes?

 

With out knowing what the Twins scouting reports looked like on him it is hard to judge.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike, lets just pretend Ryan bid 50M and won the prize. He already has Florimon and Santana and has a pretty good idea how they fit in. He also knows the 2014 draft is the deepest at SS in the past decade. It's always important to remember Ryan sees a much bigger picture than we do. If I were him, I would spend it on starting pitching and little else.

 

Last year they did not sign legit pitching, and I was told that it was either too expensive, or not that good. Last year they did not sign a legit DH or 1B or CF. There is always a reason. Like I said, if they don't sign Tanaka, I'll rip them for that.

 

This was one of the worst offenses in all of baseball this year. A guy that profiles as a legit ML infielder, there should be room for him.

 

And your appeal to authority argument holds no sway on me, if it did, you would be arguing that we could never have an opinion on anything we were not 100% accountable for.....

[cmb0252]

it would appear (since the simplist answer is often correct) that Ryan cuts his losses a lot sooner than other teams.....he's only willing to play the downside risk, not the upside risk.

 

Admittedly, that IS only a hypothesis, but it is based on over a decade of observation. I could certainly be wrong, I agree, it is certainly possible Ryan has often outbid other teams, and that no expensive FA ever wanted to come here (except under McPhail, of course, when it did happen).

 

I don't disagree that Ryan comes off as gun shy when it comes to spending money. As you said his long history as GM shows this. I just can't get mad about not spending big money on a guy with so many question marks around him. There were a lot of different scouting reports about him ranging from utility player to power hitting SS. Without knowing what our scouts saw it is really hard to judge this none move. International signings are a lot different than normal FA signings.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't disagree that Ryan comes off as gun shy when it comes to spending money. As you said his long history as GM shows this. I just can't get mad about not spending big money on a guy with so many question marks around him. There were a lot of different scouting reports about him ranging from utility player to power hitting SS. Without knowing what our scouts saw it is really hard to judge this none move. International signings are a lot different than normal FA signings.

 

 

Like I said earlier, appeal to authority arguments have no merit with me......I'm assuming from your last sentence you have no opinions on any players, then?

 

EDIT:

In fairness, you may be deferring to the scouts this time because you've never seen him play, and you might have opinions on players you have seen.

[Winston Smith]

Yes we do not know if Ryan offered anything, was high bid and turned down or what happened.

This we do know:

 

Jim Pohlad has said many many times that they would spend 50-52% of revenue on payroll to field a competitive team. Forbes has the Twins revenue at around 210m same as the Tigers. 50% is 105 mill payroll.

 

The last 2 years Ryan has cut payroll to the point this year it will be in the upper 70's.

 

Next year there is around 45m on the books.

 

We also know the Pohlads are one of the richest if not the richest owners in baseball.

 

Therefore please do not use the poor Twins card. They have plenty of money and wealthy owners with a money printing taxpayer funded atm called Target Field.

[jokin]

Mike, lets just pretend Ryan bid 50M and won the prize. He already has Florimon and Santana and has a pretty good idea how they fit in. He also knows the 2014 draft is the deepest at SS in the past decade. It's always important to remember Ryan sees a much bigger picture than we do. If I were him, I would spend it on starting pitching and little else.

 

The Twins and the embarrasment of riches on their positional depth charts....I sense the same argument will be made when the Cuban 1B signs elsewhere, as well, and the Japanese pitcher.....

[ThePuck]

The Twins and the embarrasment of riches on their positional depth charts....I sense the same argument will be made when the Cuban 1B signs elsewhere, as well, and the Japanese pitcher.....

 

I wish I could have blind faith like so many do when it comes to Ryan.

[LaBombo]

Mike, lets just pretend Ryan bid 50M and won the prize. He already has Florimon and Santana and has a pretty good idea how they fit in. He also knows the 2014 draft is the deepest at SS in the past decade. It's always important to remember Ryan sees a much bigger picture than we do. If I were him, I would spend it on starting pitching and little else.

Passing on Guerrero because the Twins have Florimon and Santana would be like passing on Tanaka because the Twins have Liam Hendricks and Trevor May. It wouldn't make any sense.

 

And a shortstop drafted in 2014 probably wouldn't reach the majors until a 6 year Guerrero deal would be nearly over. A year or two of overlap would be a tears-of-joy inducing change of pace from the 20 years of wandering in the wilderness the franchise has experienced at that position since the departure of Gagne.

[nicksaviking]

Mike, lets just pretend Ryan bid 50M and won the prize. He already has Florimon and Santana and has a pretty good idea how they fit in. He also knows the 2014 draft is the deepest at SS in the past decade. It's always important to remember Ryan sees a much bigger picture than we do. If I were him, I would spend it on starting pitching and little else.

 

You're not serious? No middle infield upgrades are needed because of Florimon and Santana? And the Twins will get which SS in the draft? We can't assume the Twins are going to be in the position to draft, let's at this point assume, Turner and Gatewood. Who knows if those two will even have the same helium at draft time next year even if the Twins are in position. Plenty of guys fall on their faces the year before their draft eligibility.

 

I'd prefer pitching, but that likely also includes the top ten pick the Twins will have next year.

 

Once again, I'm not saying the Twins need to sign Guerrero, but it would not impact the payroll much. Only for the Twins is a $4.5-6 million dollar commitment a big money contract.

[Mr. Ed]

At what point will any "major" media call the Pohlads out for this financial commitment regression?

[Guest USAFChief]

Nick's comment above is spot on...this is not a "big money" contract in any way.