26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[Willihammer]

I guess I don't know anything really about Tanaka. I've looked at his stats and he's not a strikeout pitcher so what's the point. They need guys like Detroits guys. Starters that are capable of getting 10 K's every night.

 

Video here (volume):

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVUrIeSuCrM

 

He strikes out over 20% of batters. The split looks to have developed into a legit out pitch for lefties, and the slider was always good. IMO he'd stick in an MLB rotation no problem and in the Twins, he'd instantly become the no. 1.

[Erock]

His career SO rate in Japan is higher than Verlander's in the MLB. Not that it would translate directly, but he sure as hell would strike out more than anyone on our current squad.

[Oxtung]

Video here (volume):

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVUrIeSuCrM

 

He strikes out over 20% of batters. The split looks to have developed into a legit out pitch for lefties, and the slider was always good. IMO he'd stick in an MLB rotation no problem and in the Twins, he'd instantly become the no. 1.

 

Four things about that video:

 

1) Almost every time a lefty came up to bat I thought, "Holy Crap" there is Ichiro!

2) Check out the leg kick from the batter at 1:19. Awesome. Just Awesome.

3) I especially like the strike out at 1:28. That would be fun to see.

4) This pitcher has way too much emotion for the Twins. Check out 32 seconds into the video.

[Chance]

I would sign him, twice.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm a realistic nancy.

Well, all nancies think that about themselves. There's reasons (budget room, sending scouts, Nishi, Sano) to believe that they the Twins have the capacity to make a big splash with an international signing. I'm not sure that they will make such a signing for a number of reasonable factors (risk, talent, cost, etc.) as well. To complain about something that has not yet happened is premature guesswork, not realism.

 

And while I don't think that the Twins are likely to sign either, I'm not going to start chastising the Twins until I see how the process shakes out.

[cmathewson]

Saturday Mackey talked to Jim Pohlad and he said again money isn't an issue. There is money to spend. But it seems like all these deals come down to lack money. Somebody, me thinks, is not being fully honest.

http://brightlightsfilm.com/30/30_images/crusoe_magoo.jpg

 

I don't think Ryan and Pohlad are on the same page money wise. Ryan used to share a hotel room with Smith to save Old Man Pohlad a buck. Not 'cause it was required. Just ;cause Ryan's a cheap SOB. And rumor has it, Smith snores and is a serial flatulator. And he still roomed with him. So that's how cheap Ryan is. To the core. Willingham is the only decent FA he's ever signed, and that was a discount after losing Cuddyer. So he probably still counts those pennies in the big jar and smiles.

[S.]

I'm not gonna pretend I know a ton about pitching mechanics and all the little details, but his delivery looks really good to me. Absolutely filthy split. Nice looking slider. Can throw heat. Not really sure whats not to like. Sure, sometimes Japanese pitchers dont work out in the Majors, but our current rotation proves that you dont need to be Japanese to not work out in the majors.

[drjim]

I don't think Ryan and Pohlad are on the same page money wise. Ryan used to share a hotel room with Smith to save Old Man Pohlad a buck. Not 'cause it was required. Just ;cause Ryan's a cheap SOB. And rumor has it, Smith snores and is a serial flatulator. And he still roomed with him. So that's how cheap Ryan is. To the core. Willingham is the only decent FA he's ever signed, and that was a discount after losing Cuddyer. So he probably still counts those pennies in the big jar and smiles.

 

This may be true but on the other hand Ryan has committed almost $50 million to free agents in two seasons.

 

I know we endlessly debate this on the board but a very good argument can be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap the past two seasons.

 

The ultimate point is that posts like these are nothing more than guesses. Ryan's actions in his previous tenure show nothing about how he will act this time. We really don't know what Ryan will do with money when he has a good team.

 

FWIW, my guess is he will be more aggressive locking up his own players, he will be more willing to trade B level prospects, and he will make some free agent signings above and beyond what we have seen before. I don't expect Greinke like signings mostly because teams with similar revenue structures don't make them. I do grant these are guesses on my part as well and there is no actual evidence to back it up (though I would say the opportunity has yet to present itself one way or the other quite yet).

[howieramone1406390264]

I'm not gonna pretend I know a ton about pitching mechanics and all the little details, but his delivery looks really good to me. Absolutely filthy split. Nice looking slider. Can throw heat. Not really sure whats not to like. Sure, sometimes Japanese pitchers dont work out in the Majors, but our current rotation proves that you dont need to be Japanese to not work out in the majors.

 

As I understand it, the Twins are in Japan right now taking a closer look. I hope every thing checks out and the Twins make a bid. If that's the case, it appears there are 10+ teams interested and bids may well be in the 50M to 75M range including posting fee.

[PseudoSABR]

Sorry, forgot I'm not allowed to make some assumptions about the Twins, on a Twins forum, based up previous actions by the Twins FO. I never said anything I said was gospel, and I've said I'll be very happy if they prove me wrong. A very large part of this forum is about discussing what-ifs. If that bothers you as much as it seems, then don't engage in those conversations.

Look, please do as you like. Censorship was hardly the point of my post. But you can't go on making assumptions (that benefit your analysis) and expect people to see you as a realist. It's always the pessimist who insists on being proved wrong (rather than legitimizing their own point of view (hence the assumptions)).

[S.]

Double edit: Lets just save ourselves the hassle and drop it here. I cant imagine you're going to listen to what I have to say, and clearly I disagree with what you have to say, so lets try not to turn this thread into another bicker-fest. Hell, we probably shouldn't even really be discussing Tanaka in here.

[snepp]

It's always the pessimist who insists on being proved wrong

 

 

No, it's not, unless you're reading a different version of TD than everyone else is.

[old nurse]

No, it's not, unless you're reading a different version of TD than everyone else is.

 

When in Rome, do as the Romans.

[TheLeviathan]

At this point, the only reasonable assumption is we won't sign these guys. Because evidence of the teams tendencies, the odds against you just based on the number of teams bidding, teams poor record, and the GMs stated thoughts on long term deals for pitching all weigh HEAVILY against any evidence to the contrary.

 

Ryan had a chance years ago to prove that for the right guy - healthy, dominant, hometown favorite, Cy Young caliber - he would pony up. And what he did was stall and stall until he could pass the burden off on a green GM. The usual refrain that "we don't know how Ryan will act" defies reality.

 

You are welcome to hope for a change in behavior, but don't pretend you are equal grounds of evidence. You're not, guesses can still be better supported than others and this isn't even close.

 

Meanwhile, I will share your hope.

[drjim]

At this point, the only reasonable assumption is we won't sign these guys. Because evidence of the teams tendencies, the odds against you just based on the number of teams bidding, teams poor record, and the GMs stated thoughts on long term deals for pitching all weigh HEAVILY against any evidence to the contrary.

 

When looked at this way, the odds for any specific team is that they will not sign one of these guys. 30 teams with 3 guys available.

 

Ryan had a chance years ago to prove that for the right guy - healthy, dominant, hometown favorite, Cy Young caliber - he would pony up. And what he did was stall and stall until he could pass the burden off on a green GM. The usual refrain that "we don't know how Ryan will act" defies reality.

 

In 2007 the Twins were in nowhere near the same position financially as they are now. I don't think this comparison has any bearing on what will happen going forward, though it should be noted that Ryan did sign an initial 4 year extension, who just balked at the 5-6 year extension at huge money, much like every small market team would do. Ryan's mistake, as you alluded to, was not trading him earlier and leaving the mess for the new GM to clean up.

 

You are welcome to hope for a change in behavior, but don't pretend you are equal grounds of evidence. You're not, guesses can still be better supported than others and this isn't even close.

 

Meanwhile, I will share your hope.

 

I don't think I claimed equal grounds of evidence. I am pretty sure I stated clearly that there really is no evidence to support my claim, but there is also no true evidence against my position because we have never seen Terry Ryan operate with a good team under the new financial reality.

 

The little evidence I can gather in support of my position is that 1) He has spent more on free agents the past two years than he did all his other years combined (by a significant margin) and 2) He has locked up any player even remotely worthwhile (ie Perkins, Burton, Doumit).

[diehardtwinsfan]

At this point, the only reasonable assumption is we won't sign these guys. Because evidence of the teams tendencies, the odds against you just based on the number of teams bidding, teams poor record, and the GMs stated thoughts on long term deals for pitching all weigh HEAVILY against any evidence to the contrary.

 

Ryan had a chance years ago to prove that for the right guy - healthy, dominant, hometown favorite, Cy Young caliber - he would pony up. And what he did was stall and stall until he could pass the burden off on a green GM. The usual refrain that "we don't know how Ryan will act" defies reality.

 

You are welcome to hope for a change in behavior, but don't pretend you are equal grounds of evidence. You're not, guesses can still be better supported than others and this isn't even close.

 

Meanwhile, I will share your hope.

 

The one thing we have to remember is that they were playing with dome revenues when Santana was nearing FA and not with Target Field... and they had to lock up some kid named Mauer too.

 

I don't have high expectations that they will sign Tanaka, Abreau, or Gonzales, but unlike then, they have the ability to be competitive. I'd be thrilled if they got one of these guys, and I lean towards Tanaka or Abreau right now... not that I don't like Gonzalez, but if it's questionable he sticks at SS, I'd rather go for the sure bat or arm.

[TheLeviathan]

When looked at this way, the odds for any specific team is that they will not sign one of these guys. 30 teams with 3 guys available.

 

Absolutely, the degree of likelihood is relatively close. Especially for mid market teams.

 

In 2007 the Twins were in nowhere near the same position financially as they are now.

 

They knew they'd have a new ballpark and the revenues to go with it. You could argue they were choosing between Mauer and Santana, but the truth is Ryan bungled Santana any way you cut it. So we have seen how he handles top flight pitching that met every box on the checklist for "shell out big cash". And he still didn't do it.

 

I don't think I claimed equal grounds of evidence.

 

No, you didn't, but then you go on to claim no "true evidence". Well, sure. But if I asked you what genre Kanye's next number 1 track will be in and you said "Rap" and I said "Blue Grass" - you think those guesses are on equally footing?

 

You can spin it however you'd like, the truth is that there is far more evidence (some that is not even Twins specific like the difficulty of bidding against many other teams) to the contrary of your position. That, by it's very nature, makes it a more well-grounded guess. But, as with any guess, you could be wrong and Kanye might be blowing into a jug and playing the fiddle on his next album. It's just far less likely. Ditto the situation here, at least until some direct evidence to support you starts to shine through.

[cmathewson]

This may be true but on the other hand Ryan has committed almost $50 million to free agents in two seasons.

 

I know we endlessly debate this on the board but a very good argument can be made that Ryan has been responsible in his spending rather than cheap the past two seasons.

 

The ultimate point is that posts like these are nothing more than guesses. Ryan's actions in his previous tenure show nothing about how he will act this time. We really don't know what Ryan will do with money when he has a good team.

 

FWIW, my guess is he will be more aggressive locking up his own players, he will be more willing to trade B level prospects, and he will make some free agent signings above and beyond what we have seen before. I don't expect Greinke like signings mostly because teams with similar revenue structures don't make them. I do grant these are guesses on my part as well and there is no actual evidence to back it up (though I would say the opportunity has yet to present itself one way or the other quite yet).

 

 

I want to believe you. Really I do. I have defended his thriftiness over the years. And it worked when he didn't have much budget. But now that he's flush with cash, I don't understand being overly frugal. I think of my own business decisions. If I have budget, I spend it lest I lose it next year. The only way I can make my company money is by wisely spending my budget. I consider myself a failure if I leave money on the table. So I just don't get leaving $40 million on the table when there were good places to spend it. I will take some risks with the money I have, cause I know it is the only way to produce value for my company. Nobody wins by playing it safe. You can be mediocre. But you can't win.

 

I have yet to see him take risks with money, and that covers almost 20 years of decisions. He sometimes spends what it takes to keep the best players produced by the system. But he never has spent what it took to get a really excellent free agent from outside the organization. And his bargain basement free agents are legendary failures, real embarrassments for the organization. I don't have to name them. Most can say 10 off the top of their heads.

 

The definition of insanity is keep doing the same things and expect different results. I have stopped expecting different results from him. I hope he surprises me. But I am not holding my breath.

[old nurse]

The distinction between the international free agents and the 6 year free agents available to sign are twofold. The 6 year free agent at some point in a long term contract will be in decline. How steep or soon is the unknown. The international free agents will be in their prime but what their ceiling is unknown. We will see what Ryan does. If the scouts like the players and Ryan trusts the scouts, there is hope.

[drjim]

I want to believe you. Really I do. I have defended his thriftiness over the years. And it worked when he didn't have much budget. But now that he's flush with cash, I don't understand being overly frugal. I think of my own business decisions. If I have budget, I spend it lest I lose it next year. The only way I can make my company money is by wisely spending my budget. I consider myself a failure if I leave money on the table. So I just don't get leaving $40 million on the table when there were good places to spend it. I will take some risks with the money I have, cause I know it is the only way to produce value for my company. Nobody wins by playing it safe. You can be mediocre. But you can't win.

 

I have yet to see him take risks with money, and that covers almost 20 years of decisions. He sometimes spends what it takes to keep the best players produced by the system. But he never has spent what it took to get a really excellent free agent from outside the organization. And his bargain basement free agents are legendary failures, real embarrassments for the organization. I don't have to name them. Most can say 10 off the top of their heads.

 

The definition of insanity is keep doing the same things and expect different results. I have stopped expecting different results from him. I hope he surprises me. But I am not holding my breath.

 

He is definitely risk adverse, I don't think that has changed. I'm pretty confident the payroll will be less next year than it was this year. And it will be the right decision.

 

I just don't think the comparison of your industry and his will ever perfectly work for a variety of reasons. For a quick example, would you spend money this year that locked you into future obligations for a diminishing (or non-productive) asset in future years? That would be a disaster, especially if you had expectations of future growth in 2-3 years that may require additional investment. I imagine you would spend unused budget on one off expenses that would result in growth, that would be a wise investment. Ryan tried to do that with Saunders but it didn't work.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Absolutely, the degree of likelihood is relatively close. Especially for mid market teams.

 

 

 

They knew they'd have a new ballpark and the revenues to go with it. You could argue they were choosing between Mauer and Santana, but the truth is Ryan bungled Santana any way you cut it. So we have seen how he handles top flight pitching that met every box on the checklist for "shell out big cash". And he still didn't do it.

 

 

 

No, you didn't, but then you go on to claim no "true evidence". Well, sure. But if I asked you what genre Kanye's next number 1 track will be in and you said "Rap" and I said "Blue Grass" - you think those guesses are on equally footing?

 

You can spin it however you'd like, the truth is that there is far more evidence (some that is not even Twins specific like the difficulty of bidding against many other teams) to the contrary of your position. That, by it's very nature, makes it a more well-grounded guess. But, as with any guess, you could be wrong and Kanye might be blowing into a jug and playing the fiddle on his next album. It's just far less likely. Ditto the situation here, at least until some direct evidence to support you starts to shine through.

 

I would listen to that bluegrass album.

[TheLeviathan]

I would listen to that bluegrass album.

 

The beauty of hope, no? You can always get an amazing surprise!

[TheLeviathan]

If the scouts like the players and Ryan trusts the scouts, there is hope.

 

Unfortunately, if the Twins don't make any signings it's backdoors like this that allow people to continue to assert that we "don't know" what Ryan would do or that the situation wsan't right, or whatever. There is a never ending supply of weak supports people can concoct.

 

The problem is that the much stronger evidence contradicts them, unfortunately they continue to put the burden of proving the future on other people and asserting that their guess is just as good as anyone else. When, in fact, it isn't - even if it comes true in the future.

[nicksaviking]

In 2007 the Twins were in nowhere near the same position financially as they are now. I don't think this comparison has any bearing on what will happen going forward, though it should be noted that Ryan did sign an initial 4 year extension, who just balked at the 5-6 year extension at huge money, much like every small market team would do. Ryan's mistake, as you alluded to, was not trading him earlier and leaving the mess for the new GM to clean up.

 

I seriously doubt many if any GM's would have balked at extending their 25-year-old, left-handed, Cy Young Award winner a six year extension, especially the small market clubs. You don't think the Rays would have only been offering four years do you?

 

It was risk adverse to the point of obscene foolishness. He was fine at his job when it entailed dealing with small payrolls and low upside players. It was hard to make a mistake when the public was automatically going to blame any misstep on the frugal owner.

 

However, he has not even attempted to handle anything close to a star level player at this point as he stepped aside to let Bill Smith do the dirty work with Hunter, Santana, Mauer and Morneau. He is squemish and has shown absolutely no reason to believe he has the mental makeup to deal with uncomfortable contracts.

 

I want him nowhere near the table if Buxton, Sano, Meyer or any other young talent becomes an elite talent and requires a mega-contract. Thus, get rid of him now.

[cmathewson]

He is definitely risk adverse, I don't think that has changed. I'm pretty confident the payroll will be less next year than it was this year. And it will be the right decision.

 

You might be the only person in Twins Territory who holds those two propositions together. Most of us want to see Mauer get a ring in a Twins uniform. We don't want four or five consecutive 90-loss seasons with the vain hope of future glory.

[drjim]

I seriously doubt many if any GM's would have balked at extending their 25-year-old, left-handed, Cy Young Award winner a six year extension, especially the small market clubs. You don't think the Rays would have only been offering four years do you?

 

David Price?

[Oxtung]

He is definitely risk adverse, I don't think that has changed. I'm pretty confident the payroll will be less next year than it was this year. And it will be the right decision.

 

I just don't think the comparison of your industry and his will ever perfectly work for a variety of reasons. For a quick example, would you spend money this year that locked you into future obligations for a diminishing (or non-productive) asset in future years? That would be a disaster, especially if you had expectations of future growth in 2-3 years that may require additional investment. I imagine you would spend unused budget on one off expenses that would result in growth, that would be a wise investment. Ryan tried to do that with Saunders but it didn't work.

 

Of course the reality is that obligation could become a cornerstone upon which the future could be built. That is something that you continually ignore.

 

The little evidence I can gather in support of my position is that 1) He has spent more on free agents the past two years than he did all his other years combined (by a significant margin) and 2) He has locked up any player even remotely worthwhile (ie Perkins, Burton, Doumit).

 

I thought signing free agents and re-signing your own players were entirely separate things. At least that is what you always try to convince me of.

[drjim]

You might be the only person in Twins Territory who holds those two propositions together. Most of us want to see Mauer get a ring in a Twins uniform. We don't want four or five consecutive 90-loss seasons with the vain hope of future glory.

 

I should clarify this point. I expect Ryan to sign two starters and a cornee bat, but the outlay for next year will be less than the total coming off the books, which is why payroll will still go down.

 

There obviously is space to sign someone like Guerrero, but if the Dodgers come in and make an absurd offer it will be a little difficult to be too upset if the Twins don't beat it.

[drjim]

I thought signing free agents and re-signing your own players were entirely separate things. At least that is what you always try to convince me of.

 

They are different. That's why I separated them into two distinct points.

[drjim]

Of course the reality is that obligation could become a cornerstone upon which the future could be built. That is something that you continually ignore.

 

I don't ignore it as much as accept the reality that the options last year available to the Twins didn't fit this description.