How the Twins Have a Top-8 Roster Entering the Offseason

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, Glorybound said:

No they do not have a top 8 roster. Too many holes in lineup and a crappy defense. Bullpen doesn’t have a sure fire closer either.

I agree they probably don't have a top 8 roster, but if they go with the youngsters, the defense should be MUCH improved and possibly a strength.

[Exiled in Illinois]

This ranking is based on roster today.  That's after roster cuts, before trades, free agent signings, injuries, promotions, ect...

It's a off-season starting point relative to other teams.  Interesting that it suggests we are at a pretty spot relative to the rest of the league and division.  Now we get to see if ranking rise or fall by opening day.

Time for management to put up or shut up (not exactly a new take I know).

[IndianaTwin]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I don't get all the machinations that give some number to some player, but can you explain how a 75 win team that adds 22.5 wins winds up with 88 wins?

That's why we are often told that there will be no math. 😀

[IndianaTwin]

20 minutes ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

This ranking is based on roster today.  That's after roster cuts, before trades, free agent signings, injuries, promotions, ect...

It's a off-season starting point relative to other teams.  Interesting that it suggests we are at a pretty spot relative to the rest of the league and division.  Now we get to see if ranking rise or fall by opening day.

Time for management to put up or shut up (not exactly a new take I know).

There's also often a pretty tight range. So for example, with the Braves signing Phillips and Tigers signing Pagan (and apparently something else), we've fallen to 11th. Re-signing Jeffers would get us back to 8th. 

I think the main thing it suggests is that the Twins have a decent roster, with room for improvement. As one might expect, they project the team to be weakest at C, 1B, 2B and bullpen relative to the league averages at each position. Their projections are median to somewhat above at most positions, but at many of them, even a change of a couple tenths moves a projection up or down several slots. 

[MackMan]

2 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

There's also often a pretty tight range. So for example, with the Braves signing Phillips and Tigers signing Pagan (and apparently something else), we've fallen to 11th. Re-signing Jeffers would get us back to 8th. 

I think the main thing it suggests is that the Twins have a decent roster, with room for improvement. As one might expect, they project the team to be weakest at C, 1B, 2B and bullpen relative to the league averages at each position. Their projections are median to somewhat above at most positions, but at many of them, even a change of a couple tenths moves a projection up or down several slots. 

And I'd say they're fairly spot on. Without Jeffers we have a weak catching core. After the fire sale, we've pieced together a BP that looks like a bunch of jokers. Now we did strengthen that a little bit when we made some trade for players, but still weak. Our 1B and 2B are weak comparatively to other teams. Otherwise, Lee was strong at the hot corner, our OF outside of a few players were relatively strong, our DH was strong, and our SP was usually fairly good. I'd say glaring holes are easily SS, 1B, 2B, and C. BP guys are tough because they can be lights out one season, and be a complete liability the following season. 

[Twins GFP]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

There was never anyone in baseball who felt Mariano Rivera was overrated, overpaid, or incorrectly used.

While there are never 30 closers across the league, there are always a few that stand out. It is a mistake to beleive that any good pitcher fits in the 9th inning. People are human by definition and some pitchers are unable to shoulder the weight of finishing off a win.

The W is the only meaningful stat in baseball. All others are at the whim and mercy of whatever era baseball resides in at the time. WAR, bWAR, ERA, OPS, RBI, AVE, etc. are all equally meaningless below the one stat that endures - W, games won by a team.

I am not arguing that Mariano Rivera was not a great RP. However, I guarantee you that the Yankees had many, many times that using Rivera in the 6th or 7th inning would have had a greater impact on the game then saving him until the 9th.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

I am not arguing that Mariano Rivera was not a great RP. However, I guarantee you that the Yankees had many, many times that using Rivera in the 6th or 7th inning would have had a greater impact on the game then saving him until the 9th.

Like me, Mariano Rivera was only one person. He can't pitch the 7th, take a nap, and come back in in the 9th inning. I'm not sure where to start here. If your point is that every out counts as one out, that is correct. If you are saying that the last out of the 7th inning is as important as the last out of the game, that is not true. The last out of the game results in a Win for their team. Rivera was used as a setup pitcher before it was determined that his value in wins and losses was far more important as a closer. Closers on winning teams are underrated, which is why they get almost 2X the money as the very best 8th inning pitchers. There are only a very few select closers in MLB. David Bednar is one of them. Looking at the money offered thus far, the Twins should be pushing a 4/$68-72M contract to his agent asap. Zoll needs a loud ticking clock.

[Twins GFP]

42 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Like me, Mariano Rivera was only one person. He can't pitch the 7th, take a nap, and come back in in the 9th inning. I'm not sure where to start here. If your point is that every out counts as one out, that is correct. If you are saying that the last out of the 7th inning is as important as the last out of the game, that is not true. The last out of the game results in a Win for their team. Rivera was used as a setup pitcher before it was determined that his value in wins and losses was far more important as a closer. Closers on winning teams are underrated, which is why they get almost 2X the money as the very best 8th inning pitchers. There are only a very few select closers in MLB. David Bednar is one of them. Looking at the money offered thus far, the Twins should be pushing a 4/$68-72M contract to his agent asap. Zoll needs a loud ticking clock.

You are incorrect. Coming in to pitch with the bases loaded, 1 out in the 7th inning with a 2 run lead is extremely more valuable than starting the 9th inning with no one on and that same 2 run lead. High leverage situations matter.

Lots of saves does not mean they can pitch in high leverage situations. Have you forgotten "established closer" Matt Capps already?

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

"established closer" Matt Capps already?

Dude, Matt Capps was an established closer just like Yoendrys Gomez. We don't agree at all on this topic. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

[tony&rodney]

Looking back to the gist of the article made me wonder why anyone is ranking teams now when games are still 5 months away. I get the rankings that conclude a season and preview the coming games towards the end of Spring Training. The weekly reranking of clubs throughout the year even makes some sense. Currently, absolutely zero teams know what there rosters are going to look like in late March. Nobody know what their 40 person list is at this point and has no idea of their 26 roster when the bell rings.  Pablo Lopez was going to be the rock for the Twins starting rotation one year ago. He did not figure into the club's hopes in late March. Every player can be traded and that also makes this idea in mid November silly and inane. Can anyone guess or explain how a ranking makes sense now?

[Linus]

My guess is to stay in the upper end of the rankings they will need to win 87+ games next year. Not sure how we are picking up 10 wins unless something really dramatic and somewhat lucky happens. 

[Riverbrian]

On 11/12/2026 at 7:19 PM, MeleMouth said:

Making the playoffs is a good first start if it's sustainable and it leads to being more competitive. But if it requires selling out the future, such as by

• trading a bunch of prospects of whatever caliber for mediocre pitchers,
• not trading your veterans who could bring back prospects who could help in future years, and/or
• signing aging free agents to expensive contracts who will probably decline from their first year,

then, no, making the playoffs is a terrible goal, because it comes at the cost of sustained competitiveness at a level much better than having a chance to make the playoffs. 

History is on my side of this argument. Since 2017, when the Twins really started this "let's make the playoffs and see what happens" theme, they have made the playoffs fewer times than nearly every other team and have perhaps the worst overall record in the playoffs during those 10 years. But every year, once again, the goal becomes to scrape into the playoffs at the cost of the future instead of paying the price to build something sustainable.

They can do both. They can do it this year. They just gotta get out of the way. There's talent on this team... they just need a little bit more. They can win with youth. 

[Twins GFP]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Dude, Matt Capps was an established closer just like Yoendrys Gomez. We don't agree at all on this topic. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

There is very little ability in the comments on this site to acknowledge when you have a fundamental disagreement and end a discussion without having it become a a personal, name calling, p*ssing contest.

Respect dude. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well.

[DJL44]

 

On 11/12/2026 at 11:12 PM, JADBP said:

I dearly hope we get Houston on the team by say June/July

Hope is a bad plan for a contender 

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 

Hope is a bad plan for a contender 

Is it rash to suggest that if the Twins do not complete several reasonably substantial noves before the lockout they will not be contenders for a Wild Card?