The Twins Should Hope Ryan Jeffers Accepts His Qualifying Offer

[MeleMouth]

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing.

A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

[bjorks]

Here's an interesting twist depending on how far away you think we are from contending. Contending = minimum of ALCS

If you think we can win the Central and make a run over the next 2-3 years, what would it take in return for Lackey? Far fetched I know, but if Team X makes an overwhelming deal, would you sign Jeffers to a say 4/$62 and replenish the minors? Let's say the Cubs offered Hartshorn, Wiggins, Alcantara, and filler? Point being if they believe in Tait, I wonder what the haul would be on Lackey or even a lesser package for Tait.

I'd be very tempted to at least pick up the phone and listen, especially if you could get Jeffers on a small discount in exchange for length. Not suggesting we do it, but I'd be tempted if I thought we could make a run. 

[bean5302]

Analytical models are far, far less optimistic on Jeffers. A 4yr $75MM contract for a 2 WAR player would defy pretty much all historical precedent, but you never know.

I certainly wouldn't go over 3yrs $40MM for him, and that assumes there being no NTC so the Twins could move him in a year or two. There are a ton of catchers out there who have been just as good, they're not just "free agents."

[HarmanWithAnA]

1 hour ago, Coach Wheels said:

By math, $75 million is greater than $23 million. He'll pass.

Pretty sure $23M is greater than $18.75M and he can probably still get the 4yr/$75M next year if he repeats his 2026 numbers.

[jmlease1]

I've been of the position that the QO with Jeffers was a no-lose proposition. If he accepts (which I consider unlikely) they get the quality RH bat at a position where offense is scarce for one more season, and there's just not that much downside to a 1 year deal, even if it is an overpay. It's the overpays on 3-5 year deals that sink you.

If he declines, we get the pick. Which is the most likely scenario, unless you're foolish enough to listen to Jim Bowden, who has an incredible record of being wrong all the damn time and then pretending he was right all along.

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, HarmanWithAnA said:

Pretty sure $23M is greater than $18.75M and he can probably still get the 4yr/$75M next year if he repeats his 2026 numbers.

it's possible, but he'll be a year older at a position where players don't usually age well. He'll be taking an injury risk, and coming off a season where he had an injury that caused him to miss significant time he'd then be bearing the dreaded "injury risk" title if he goes back to back on injury years. It's not like Jeffers had a rep for durability, even if some of that was just the Twins choice in trying to protect him. The age-31 contract might be 3 for $45M...or 2 for $30M.

Of course, if he crushes the 2026 season with a 4 bWAR outing...then it's not an overpay and he gets a bigger deal.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, JBK said:

Jhonny Pereda batted .300 in 90 AB's for Seattle this year.  Better alternative than Caratini and Alex Jackson.  Just saying.  Low-risk investment.

There's a reason Pereda never had a MLB at bat until a day before his 28th birthday.  His career OPS+ is 90 in very light duty, and there is a good argument even that level of offensive output isn't sustainable if he were a full-timer.

Catchers with a bat like Jeffers' do not grow on trees.

The QO is an overpay but that's the failure tax they keep paying (Caratini, Vazquez before him) for having developed no worthwhile starting catcher since Jeffers himself.

[Chembry]

59 minutes ago, old nurse said:

MLBTR has not always been correct. Jeffers has 6 years of not above 90 games caught. I have not seen a 4 year contract nor a 16 million contract given to an over 30 part time catcher 

You're right.  They aren't always correct.  They may be off in total years, close in terms of AAV.   But more often than not, they are within a few million in terms of AAV. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

By math, $75 million is greater than $23 million. He'll pass.

Careful. We've been told there would be no math. 😀

[tony&rodney]

41 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing.

A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

Agree the Twins are willing to take that gamble. Jeffers accepting puts the current roster well over the number used in the Blueprint. That means no additions. 

As far as losing draft choices .... that seems like the cost of failing to trade Joe Ryan for the rumored deal to the Red Sox and holding guys like Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, and Jeffers instead of trading them. 

Relief pitchers are notoriously variable but the best are pretty solid. Bednar and Morejon have been reliable, which is no guarantee for the future. The Twins made some choices and will need to be very proactive to reach 81 wins again. Free agents do not cost players within the current system. Losing the third and fourth picks is a tough outcome but rolling into 2027 with no additions would make winning 76 games again a tough battle. I think the Twins need to sign one top bullpen pitcher. Either that or as a few people have advocated the club needs to look to 2028 and 2029.

 

[MackMan]

50 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing.

A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

And that's a perfect model of demand and supply. This year is a weak FA market, especially given that there aren't very many catchers worth their own weight. Good catchers get snagged up pretty quick and usually locked down long-term. That is why the Twins are willing to overpay for a premium position that is usually defense first. 

Now the other argument can be made because he's a Boras client.. Boras himself is gonna argue that he deserves more because he's a bat first catcher that can bring your team X wins based on the current market, WAR and WPA, or whatever he'll use to best leverage his client. And some team will pay him for his services, the biggest thing is just how much is going to be shelled out for his game. And if it comes to a battle of bidding, I feel as if the Twins are gonna lose out, regardless of what team is bidding. 

[Chembry]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Analytical models are far, far less optimistic on Jeffers. A 4yr $75MM contract for a 2 WAR player would defy pretty much all historical precedent, but you never know.

I certainly wouldn't go over 3yrs $40MM for him, and that assumes there being no NTC so the Twins could move him in a year or two. There are a ton of catchers out there who have been just as good, they're not just "free agents."

JT Realmuto coming off a 2.5 WAR season, playing in 134g got 3yr/$45M ($15M AAV)...and he was 34 at the time of signing.

Willson Contreras signed for 5yr/$87.5M ($17.5M AAV) coming off a 3.8 WAR season playing in 113g. He got that contract with similar defensive concerns as Jeffers and with the QO attached.  If you compare Contreras' offensive stats through his first 1604 plate appearances to Jeffers 1693 plate appearances since 2023, their stats are almost identical:

Jeffers: .254/.342/.440 

Contreras: .249/.349/.467

Jeffers put up 2.8WAR (according BBref) in 92 games, which was down due to the hamate injury.  If you extrapolate that 2.8 WAR out to 120g, which is about where Jeffers was the previous 2 years, that puts him at 3.65 WAR.  He is far and away the best FA catcher on the market.  

Personally, I am not saying he will get 4/$75M, but I do think he will be closer to the MLBTR number than the Fangraphs number.  Only time will tell.

[DJL44]

Using a dumb projection model, Jeffers looks like 2.5, 2.0, 1.5. 1.0 for a total of 7 WAR over 4 years. That has a market value of $56M.

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, Chembry said:

JT Realmuto coming off a 2.5 WAR season, playing in 134g got 3yr/$45M ($15M AAV)...and he was 34 at the time of signing.

Willson Contreras signed for 5yr/$87.5M ($17.5M AAV) coming off a 3.8 WAR season playing in 113g. He got that contract with similar defensive concerns as Jeffers and with the QO attached.  If you compare Contreras' offensive stats through his first 1604 plate appearances to Jeffers 1693 plate appearances since 2023, their stats are almost identical:

Jeffers: .254/.342/.440 

Contreras: .249/.349/.467

Jeffers put up 2.8WAR (according BBref) in 92 games, which was down due to the hamate injury.  If you extrapolate that 2.8 WAR out to 120g, which is about where Jeffers was the previous 2 years, that puts him at 3.65 WAR.  He is far and away the best FA catcher on the market.  

Personally, I am not saying he will get 4/$75M, but I do think he will be closer to the MLBTR number than the Fangraphs number.  Only time will tell.

Jeffers just had a career year at age 29 (similar to Contreras before his free agency) . If you look at Jeffers last 3 years, he's averaging 2.1 fWAR per year. He had 2.6 fWAR last year.

Contreras was coming off a 3.5 fWAR season when he got his contract. 3.5 vs. 2.6 is a substantial difference in free agent value, Contreras was averaging 2.6 fWAR per year over the previous 3 seasons, and production becomes much different on a per plate appearance basis. 151 PA per WAR for Contreras, 209 PA per WAR per WAR (Contreras 30% better than Jeffers), and Contreras had a more consistent bat both in a production and approach. I view Contreras as a poor direct comparison for Jeffers, but YMMV.

MLBTR 4yrs $75MM
Fangraphs 3yrs $47MM
Spotrac 3yrs $40MM
Ogilvie 2yrs $19MM
Athletic 2yrs $15.5MM (Jim Bowden)
 

[HerbieFan]

4 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

 IMO, it's best for both parties if he declines. For Jeffers, he had a very good 1st half before his injury IMO, teams will take that into consideration; giving him a good chance of landing a pretty good multi-year contract. Why gamble on a one year contract to try to copy the same results? He could get hurt & have a terrible walk year. And for the Twins, they'll grossly overpay for one year of Jeffers; hamstringing their payrole & one year isn't enough to cover the time needed until Lackey is ready, I'd trade for someone good that can be around for at least 2yrs.. Plus, Twins receive another high draft pick

  This pretty sums up where I'm at...