The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: Tender, Trade or Let Bailey Ober Walk?

[Linus]

Long man / spot starter. He would be better than any reliever we have not named Hoffman. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

On 10/4/2026 at 11:23 PM, tony&rodney said:

This is way, way, way too much of a response.

Not at all. I appreciate your insight and input. That's why I come to this site whenever I can. I'm still wondering how many teams actually WILL try to make moves before that December date. With so much uncertainty surrounding next season (when will it start, or simply WILL it start) I'd be surprised if there is much if any trades or signing until things are clearer. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 10/3/2026 at 2:31 PM, bean5302 said:

You want to spend $7MM on Ober as a reliever next year?

Yup. $7M is not a really high price for a good reliever unless we're planning to run another $100M payroll. Tom P says he's willing to spend. We could also threaten to non-tender and sign him cheaper since I don't think he'll have a huge market out there. If we're not willing to spend $7M to bring back a guy who has pitched well for us in the past and who could be a good long man/swing starter, then we're all wasting our time thinking about next year's roster.  

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Yup. $7M is not a really high price for a good reliever unless we're planning to run another $100M payroll. Tom P says he's willing to spend. We could also threaten to non-tender and sign him cheaper since I don't think he'll have a huge market out there. If we're not willing to spend $7M to bring back a guy who has pitched well for us in the past and who could be a good long man/swing starter, then we're all wasting our time thinking about next year's roster.  

$7M for a #7-8 bullpen arm is wasting money.

[DJL44]

On 10/4/2026 at 8:55 PM, SE23 said:

What about Mauicio Dubon as a possible 2B signing? He's a defensive upgrade and can play SS too. Not much pop, but he also doesn't strike out much. Had a .321 OBP this year.

I would take him as a Ryan Kreidler replacement.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

$7M for a #7-8 bullpen arm is wasting money.

Ober had better stats the first time through the lineup than any relief pitcher on the Twins roster. I guess they only have #8 caliber bullpen arms.

[JADBP]

On 10/3/2026 at 12:58 PM, MeleMouth said:

This is true as true gets and I'm a big proponent of playing the young guys instead of the expensive, low ceiling veterans, except in this case who could be that "better younger pitcher?" At this point, Rojas should get opportunities ahead of Ober, sink or swim, but the Twins have rarely given chances like that because it doesn't fit into their messaging of "competitive baseball."  Other than Rojas, there really isn't anyone at else at AA or AAA who is deserving of even a chance. Andrew Morris or Mike Paredes would be next?

As you say, a possibility could be Ober to the bullpen to see if he is better there and to be a failsafe for the rotation.

Maybe it depends on whether the Twins decide to trade any of their other starters and what they think they can get back. 

Uhhh...you are putting a guy into the BP with an 88 mph fastball?  Really?  Maybe if he learned a knuckleball.....but otherwise....trade him!

[JADBP]

On 10/3/2026 at 12:56 PM, Mike Sixel said:

So which pitcher isn't on the roster, if Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Kremer are? Preilipp? Matthews? Abel? Bradley? Because all four of those have higher upside than Ober. At some point, you have to play to win. 

Right....here is what it comes down to:  

Baseball maxim:  You never have too much pitching.  

There will be injuries.  You will need SPs that bounce between the Twin Cities.  Preilipp, Matthews, Abel and definitely Bradley belong in the biggs.  And all of them have more upside than Ober.  We have 7-8 SPs (outside of Ober) that belong or can be used in the rotation.  We may have enough.  Trading Ryan will hurt, but we could still be OK.

Baseball trend:  fastballs in the upper 90's.  What SP (and even more so, RP's) can survive with a FB that peaks at 88 mph?  It just makes no sense and it shows up in his stats.

Twins reality:  We need RPs, 1B, short term C.  Not really to fill out some other positions more than we need to worry about Ober, so combine him with Wallner, Larnach, maybe even Royce to fill some holes.  This is how smart small market (budget) team succeed.  

Puttig Ober into the bullpen makes less sense than non-tendering!

[SE23]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I would take him as a Ryan Kreidler replacement.

Dubon has won 2 Gold Gloves and averaged better than 2.0 WAR the last 4 years. Serious upgrade over Kreidler or Lewis. Maybe both of them combined! 😁

[twinfan]

I've said before that Ober knows how to pitch. I wonder if his reduced velocity is a lingering affect on his injury. If we don't improve our starters, then sign him for 5.5 mil. Or maybe look at putting him in the bullpen but no, leave him as a starter if he comes back.

[bean5302]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ober had better stats the first time through the lineup than any relief pitcher on the Twins roster. I guess they only have #8 caliber bullpen arms.

Not sure what metrics you're looking at. Ober owned a 4.23 FIP and 4.99 xFIP first time through.

Or did you look at his 2.2 inning sample as a reliever?

[DJL44]

On 10/4/2026 at 8:45 AM, DJL44 said:

Ober's 2026 stats the first time through the lineup are a .613 OPS against (.210/.276/.337) with 18 runs allowed in 225 plate appearances.