Twins, Blue Jays Have Become Familiar Trade Partners, But Who's Really Winning?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays don't make blockbuster trades every season, but when they do business together, the deals tend to reshape both organizations.

Over the last six years, the clubs have completed three significant trades involving established major leaguers and premium prospects. Each transaction reflected where the two franchises stood competitively at the time, but they also revealed something deeper. Toronto has repeatedly targeted Minnesota's ability to develop pitching, while the Twins have shown confidence in their ability to identify overlooked talent elsewhere.

That raises an interesting question. Does Toronto trust Minnesota's pitching pipeline even more than Twins fans do? Or should the Twins begin wondering if they're consistently giving away the best arm in these deals?

With another major trade now complete, it's worth revisiting how each swap has unfolded.

2021: José Berríos for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson

The first deal between the clubs remains one of the defining trades of the Derek Falvey era. Minnesota capitalized on a seller's market by moving José Berríos at the 2021 trade deadline, acquiring two highly ranked prospects (at the time) in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson.

Toronto immediately committed to Berríos, signing him to a long-term extension before he reached free agency. His tenure with the Blue Jays has featured stretches of ace-level production mixed with frustrating inconsistency with a 102 ERA+ and a 4.36 FIP. Earlier this season, he underwent Tommy John surgery and is out until 2027. 

The Twins never received the star power many envisioned from their return. Martin's elite hit tool never translated into the impact bat scouts projected because the expected power never arrived with a 95 OPS+ and 0.7 rWAR over 243 games. Rather than becoming an everyday cornerstone, he has settled into the role of a versatile major league contributor capable of filling multiple positions.

Woods Richardson looked like he could become a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter after flashing encouraging signs during parts of 2024 and 2025 (104 ERA+, 4.30 FIP). Everything unraveled during the opening months of 2026 as posted a -0.8 rWAR in 15 games. Minnesota designated him for assignment, Toronto claimed him, passed him through waivers, and returned him to the minor leagues.

Looking back, neither side produced the overwhelming winner many expected immediately after the trade.

2025: Louis Varland and Ty France for Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden

The second deadline deal has become much more complicated. Toronto aggressively pursued Louis Varland leading into the 2025 trade deadline. Minnesota had little reason to move a controllable pitcher capable of starting or relieving for several more seasons, making the eventual deal somewhat surprising.

The Twins believed they were acquiring two players ready to contribute. Alan Roden arrived with a reputation as one of Toronto's most polished hitting prospects and someone capable of stepping into the major league lineup immediately. Kendry Rojas offered something Minnesota covets: a young left-hander with swing-and-miss stuff and legitimate upside if he can stay healthy. Both players have helped the Twins during the 2026 season and still possess room for additional growth.

The problem is what happened on the other side. Varland hasn't simply become a quality reliever. He's emerged as arguably the best closer in the American League. Through 51 appearances, he has a 1.11 ERA with a 32.9 K% and 7.2 BB%. His electric fastball and fearless approach have allowed him to dominate late innings while anchoring Toronto's bullpen.

Minnesota may have questioned Varland's long-term upside. Toronto never hesitated to embrace him as a high-leverage weapon, and the results have been spectacular. Even if Roden and Rojas become productive major leaguers, watching Varland develop into one of baseball's premier relievers has made this trade increasingly difficult for Twins fans to accept.

2026: Jeff Hoffman and cash for Dasan Hill, John Klein, Dameury Pena, and international bonus pool money

This year's deadline continued the growing connection between the two front offices. Minnesota entered August needing bullpen help as much as any contender. Jeff Hoffman immediately addressed that weakness, giving the Twins a proven late-inning reliever who remains under team control through next season. That extra year of control dramatically increased Toronto's asking price.

The centerpiece of the package is Dasan Hill, one of the more fascinating pitching prospects in the organization. His future remains difficult to project. He has the raw ingredients to develop into a quality starting pitcher, but many evaluators believe his electric arsenal could eventually play even better in a high-leverage bullpen role. He also carries enough risk that he could never fully reach either ceiling.

John Klein profiles more as organizational pitching depth today, although Toronto's continued interest in Minnesota arms naturally invites curiosity about whether its player development group sees another level. Dameury Peña remains several years away but offers intriguing athleticism and offensive upside in the lower minors. 

Unlike the previous two deals, this trade will require years before anyone can confidently judge the outcome.

A Fascinating Organizational Trend

Viewed together, these trades reveal a clear pattern. Toronto has repeatedly targeted pitchers developed by Minnesota. Berríos was already an established front-line starter, but the Blue Jays also prioritized Varland and have now added Hill and Klein to their system. Even Woods Richardson returned to the organization after Minnesota moved on.

That suggests Toronto's evaluators consistently value the pitching talent coming through the Twins organization. Minnesota, meanwhile, has often preferred acquiring position players or younger, projectable talent while trusting its own player development staff to maximize those returns.

Neither philosophy is inherently right or wrong. But the Varland trade serves as a reminder that sometimes the pitcher leaving Minnesota ultimately becomes the most valuable asset involved.

Perhaps Toronto truly sees something unique in Minnesota's pitching pipeline. Or perhaps these repeated deals simply reflect two organizations with similar competitive windows that value players differently.

The next time these front offices pick up the phone near the trade deadline, Twins fans may pay closer attention than ever. After all, history suggests Toronto usually knows exactly which Minnesota pitcher it wants.

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What stands out about these three trades? Who has been the winner? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[bean5302]

Toronto. They're the only ones who've really benefitted in any meaningful way. They made the World Series. 

[Permanent Twins Fan]

They also traded for Tommy Nance from the Blue Jays. I think the Blue Jays definitely won the Varland trade, but after that it is hard to tell. The Berrios trade seems like a wash and it is too early to tell on the Hoffman trade. 

[Dman]

Trades are complicated when looking at value lost or gained. Deadline deals are even tougher as teams are willing to lose those by overpaying in future value for present value.

I'd say that as things stand I'd give the Blue Jays the edge in these deals.

I really thought the Twins were going to likely win the Berrios trade big time.  I think Martin was a top 20 top 100 prospect and SWR was a pitcher on the rise with a good changeup.  So far that future value hasn't worked out all that well, but Berrios hasn't been that dominant as an arm either.  That deal seems pretty close right now WAR wise despite SWR not working out.  Something like 4.1 from SWR\Martin to over 6.0 for Berrios.

As an aside for that trade I would also argue that Lopez replaced Berrios for the Twins. Granted they had to trade Arraez to get Lopez which you would have to figure into this, but they likely don't extend Pablo if they had kept Berrios. So I feel Lopez's WAR should count some.  Certainly not in full, but by not doing one thing they were able to do another.  Also even though the Twins lost Arraez they didn't lose all of his production at 2nd base as other players produced WAR there.  So you can run down rabbit holes when it comes to roster balancing and total value IMO.

Still straight up from what I see the Twins lost that trade at least for now.  

The Varland trade looks a bit worse to me after the Hoffman trade.  The Twins traded 5 controllable years of an All Star pen arm for a hopefully very talented lefty starter who might end up a pen arm.  We don't know yet and they also threw in honestly a 4th outfielder type IMO.  That's a worse return than the 2 1/2 years left on Duran's deal.  If Rojas reaches his starter potential this still works out OK for the Twins as it is easier to acquire pen arms versus quality starters. I think having Varland around as long as they did and with how homer prone he was as a starter I don't think the FO saw him as a potential all star arm.  The other unique feature about Varland is his rubber arm.  He can go 3 or four days in a row if needed and it doesn't seem to affect him much.  That might change as he ages, but it is a rare arm that can do that.  It's early but right now the Jays have a serious edge for winning this one.

Adding in the Hoffman deal and it makes one Blush on the Varland deal.  The Twins trade away the same young lefty potential starter for only a year and a half of an aging 33 year old closer type arm. They also give up a potential hard throwing pen arm.  They got fewer years of control of an aging arm and had to pay more money than they would have had they kept Varland.  A lot of this hinges on Hill and his ability to throw strikes and stay healthy, but just on the surface this makes the Varland trade look even worse IMO.

There's lot's of ways to look at this stuff, but if I were the Twins I'd be more careful trading with the Blue Jays.  They seem to have better talent evaluation than the Twins.