Would Tom Pohlad Really Trade Joe Ryan?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

I'd keep Ryan until the offseason when I'd either try to sign him or trade him, but....

IF and only if the Twins want to trade Ryan, I'd be calling up Milwaukee.  The Brewers need a starter with Woodruff now out for the year.  They are in their World Series contention window, but they don't project to have a very good chance against the Dodgers in the playoffs unless they upgrade their rotation.  Their minor league system is loaded.  Could the Twins work out a deal involving Ryan for Jesus Made?  Maybe throw in another player as needed?  As good as they are, the Brewers have some holes in both their lineup and starting rotation and they really should be in "win now" mode.

I'd be awfully shocked if the Twins were able to pry away the best prospect in baseball. I think Luis Pena, Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara, or Jett Williams are the far more likely options as best player available from the Brewers. And Pena may be "untouchable" as well.

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

I'd keep Ryan until the offseason when I'd either try to sign him or trade him, but....

IF and only if the Twins want to trade Ryan, I'd be calling up Milwaukee.  The Brewers need a starter with Woodruff now out for the year.  They are in their World Series contention window, but they don't project to have a very good chance against the Dodgers in the playoffs unless they upgrade their rotation.  Their minor league system is loaded.  Could the Twins work out a deal involving Ryan for Jesus Made?  Maybe throw in another player as needed?  As good as they are, the Brewers have some holes in both their lineup and starting rotation and they really should be in "win now" mode.

Joe Ryan and Trevor Larnach to the Pirates for Seth Hernandez (who doesn't really fit their "Skenes window")

Feels like a little bit too much for the Pirates to give up, but that would raise my eyebrows in interest. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Joe Ryan and Trevor Larnach to the Pirates for Seth Hernandez (who doesn't really fit their "Skenes window")

Feels like a little bit too much for the Pirates to give up, but that would raise my eyebrows in interest. 

That would be intriguing.

The deal I keep going to is Caminiti and Hartman from Atlanta.

[JADBP]

6 hours ago, Nshore said:

I got all excited when they recently took 2 out of 3 in New York which is a rare occurrence to say the least.  But it's pretty clear that this team as currently constructed doesn't quite have the horsepower for consistent performance.  And it's all about winning to bring the fans back.  Anybody should be available for the right deal.

 

Yeah…hmmmm…didn’t they just do that last year?  
 

No, anyone is NOT available.  Some are.  Would you trade away Jenkins, Emma and Buxton? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I understand the argument for trading Ryan but I do question one of your key assumptions. Everyone seems to assume we will get a "better" return at this year's trade deadline then in the coming off-season. I understand that there is a risk of injury and that's a real concern. Beyond that, I've never really seen any kind of real analysis about why the return will be "better" now other than the thought that well, a contending team gets two playoff runs rather than one. That makes some sense but hardly seems definitive. On the contrary side, by definition there is a smaller pool of teams willing to trade for right now as that will be limited to those who feel like they are truly in contention and need to pay a big price for starting pitching to contend in the playoffs. Also, it certainly seems like the return at the deadline is always prospects. That makes sense since any  team will hold on to contributing major players so as not to create a roster hole by training to fill a different hole. It seems like in the off-season, one sees a lot more MLB player for MLB player kind of trades, probably because teams think they have minor leaguers that can backfill a hole they create or can trade at that seasons deadline to fill the hole if the prospect doesn't work out. It makes more sense to me to trade Ryan for proven talent than for prospects if you can do that, and it seems much more likely that you can do that in the off-season than at the deadline.

Look, I think you gotta fish or cut bait on Ryan no later than this off-season. If you can't  sign him before spring training ends next year, you have to go trade him. This team isn't close enough this year nor is it likely to be next year that you keep Ryan because this is going to be the "magical year" that we get to the World Series if only we keep Joe. Having said that, I just don't think that the evidence is very strong to support the argument that we will get "more" for him now other than basic logic that a team should be willing to give more to have the extra playoff run with him. I just haven't seen anything that convinces me that that's true, particularly when factoring in the facts that you can get proven MLB talent for a guy like Ryan in the off-season but not now, and that there are more teams that could be interested then as compared to now. Relief pitchers? Probably worth more now which is why we see more trades of relief pitchers now. A proven front line starter? I just don't think it's the same.

Of course, all of this is completely academic because Tom Pohlad isn't going to trade Ryan at the deadline if he has any business acumen unless he has a complete change of heart. Everything he has said to date is the opposite and even he has to know trading Ryan would kill the team and kill the fan base. I think there's a very little chance Ryan gets traded at this year's deadline for business reasons, whether or not it makes sense for baseball reasons..

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Yeah…hmmmm…didn’t they just do that last year?  
 

No, anyone is NOT available.  Some are.  Would you trade away Jenkins, Emma and Buxton? 

That's easy. Jenkins and Buxton, absolutely not. Emma, absolutely available in the right deal. Guy can't stay healthy and his passive approach may not work in the Bigs. Besides, he is out of options although he probably will get 4th option because he's been injured most of this season. Buxton is the present, Jenkins is the future, Emma is a big question mark. He seems to have real talent but he may or may not ever be either good enough or healthy enough to start every day at the MLB level, much less be a star. To me, he is exactly the kind of guy we should be dangling as a headliner in a package to get a proven MLB starting pitcher with 2+ years of control left. For the right deal, Emma goes.

[JADBP]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Tom Pohlad is not the GM. A decision he might make is whether the the Twins are buyers or sellers based upon the budget made available. 

What Zoll does with the budget is not where the Pohlad family are going to be involved. Beyond that, it would be utterly stupid if the Pohlad family did start forcing their opinions into roster construction.

Sure.  Now do you trust Zoll to make good decisions this trade season?  Based on his track record this season, I DO NOT.  Maybe Tom has to look over his shoulders a bit.  If he left everything up to Zoll…Zoll could crush this team.  As we saw last year, almost any good team is ready to jump on bad decisions by the Twins! 

[JADBP]

6 hours ago, olerud said:

I love Joe Ryan,  however trading him now is the right move!!!! If you want sustainability this is the way you achieve it! Fans are dumb they don't understand the business side! You have to move your assets when you can otherwise you get nothing!

We’ll call me a dumb fan I guess.   I’ve long said this about Ryan:  Try to sign him to a 3-4 year deal.  If he won’t sign, then trade him.  
 

Tom Pohlad can put his money where his mouth is by signing him.  That’s a great PR move. If Ryan refuses (which I sadly believe is likely) then Tom can say so publicly (also unlikely, because it’s rude, so he might just have to leak it) and thus can avert the PR nightmare after the trade. 

[amjgt]

11 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

That's easy. Jenkins and Buxton, absolutely not. Emma, absolutely available in the right deal. Guy can't stay healthy and his passive approach may not work in the Bigs. Besides, he is out of options although he probably will get 4th option because he's been injured most of this season. Buxton is the present, Jenkins is the future, Emma is a big question mark. He seems to have real talent but he may or may not ever be either good enough or healthy enough to start every day at the MLB level, much less be a star. To me, he is exactly the kind of guy we should be dangling as a headliner in a package to get a proven MLB starting pitcher with 2+ years of control left. For the right deal, Emma goes.

It does appear that Emma will be eligible for a 4th option year, no matter what happens the rest of this year.

He only has ONE year so far in professional baseball where he has more than 90 days an active roster (he could theoretically make that TWO this year), well short of the threshold of FIVE

[amjgt]

11 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Sure.  Now do you trust Zoll to make good decisions this trade season?  Based on his track record this season, I DO NOT.  Maybe Tom has to look over his shoulders a bit.  If he left everything up to Zoll…Zoll could crush this team.  As we saw last year, almost any good team is ready to jump on bad decisions by the Twins! 

Far be it from me to defend Zoll but what trades from last trade deadline would you undo right now if you could?

Also, I think Falvey was the one making the final decision on those. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 minute ago, amjgt said:

It does appear that Emma will be eligible for a 4th option year, no matter what happens the rest of this year.

He only has ONE year so far in professional baseball where he has more than 90 days an active roster (he could theoretically make that TWO this year), well short of the threshold of FIVE

Thanks for that update. Wow, he has been hurt a lot. 

[HarmonK03]

23 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Yeah…hmmmm…didn’t they just do that last year?  
 

No, anyone is NOT available.  Some are.  Would you trade away Jenkins, Emma and Buxton? 

You can't trade Buxton as we know, so it is already a given he is not available.

[HarmonK03]

14 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Sure.  Now do you trust Zoll to make good decisions this trade season?  Based on his track record this season, I DO NOT.  Maybe Tom has to look over his shoulders a bit.  If he left everything up to Zoll…Zoll could crush this team.  As we saw last year, almost any good team is ready to jump on bad decisions by the Twins! 

You want Tom P. looking over Zoll's shoulder, saying no I want prospect x not prospect y.  I don't trust Zoll but I sure don't trust Tom P. when it comes to evaluating baseball talent.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, JADBP said:

We’ll call me a dumb fan I guess.   I’ve long said this about Ryan:  Try to sign him to a 3-4 year deal.  If he won’t sign, then trade him.  
 

Tom Pohlad can put his money where his mouth is by signing him.  That’s a great PR move. If Ryan refuses (which I sadly believe is likely) then Tom can say so publicly (also unlikely, because it’s rude, so he might just have to leak it) and thus can avert the PR nightmare after the trade. 

He's not signing for less than five or six years  he's not signing in Minnesota because they rightly didn't sign pitchers into their mid 30s.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 minute ago, amjgt said:

Far be it from me to defend Zoll but what trades from last trade deadline would you undo right now if you could?

Also, I think Falvey was the one making the final decision on those. 

Agree Falvey was making the decisions. Most of the deal were good moves. There is one deal I would redo; the Varland. I actually think highly of Rojas and think he could be a great starter or late inning guy down the road. Still, I Would rather have Varland at the back of the Twins' bullpen for the next 3.5 years since he's not going to hit free agency until 2031.

I think we basically "won" almost all of the other trades. We definitely won Jax for Bradley, Bader for Mendez and Villoria, Castro for Gallagher, and Coulombe for Horn. Duran for Abel and Tait is yet to be seen but the return looks strong. Frankly, if Mick Abel is a #3 starter or better next year, we win and still have Tait for later gravy. Stewart for Outman was a lose-lose since Stewart immediately got hurt and Outman well, he kind of stinks. I also approve of them dumping most of Correa's salary, especially since he's missed this entire season with an injury.

[amjgt]

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Agree Falvey was making the decisions. Most of the deal were good moves. There is one deal I would redo; the Varland. I actually think highly of Rojas and think he could be a great starter or late inning guy down the road. Still, I Would rather have Varland at the back of the Twins' bullpen for the next 3.5 years since he's not going to hit free agency until 2031.

I think we basically "won" almost all of the other trades. We definitely won Jax for Bradley, Bader for Mendez and Villoria, Castro for Gallagher, and Coulombe for Horn. Duran for Abel and Tait is yet to be seen but the return looks strong. Frankly, if Mick Abel is a #3 starter or better next year, we win and still have Tait for later gravy. Stewart for Outman was a lose-lose since Stewart immediately got hurt and Outman well, he kind of stinks. I also approve of them dumping most of Correa's salary, especially since he's missed this entire season with an injury.

I agree with all of this.

I think some people might push back on the Duran one, but I wouldn't. 

The rest of them it's pretty difficult to argue weren't at least neutral, and very likely advantage Twins. 

[JADBP]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not signing for less than five or six years  he's not signing in Minnesota because they rightly didn't sign pitchers into their mid 30s.

Right.  So trade him.  

But at least TRY to sign him first.  Not even trying to sign him is irresponsible (to the org) and disrespectful (to Ryan).  Show some stones and genuinely TRY. 
 

[HarmonK03]

17 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Agree Falvey was making the decisions.

Yes Falvey made the final decision, but there was no way he was on the phone with that many teams by himself.  He was relying heavily on Zoll, who probably had some parameters to work within, but there is no doubt Zoll was in favor of the moves and was a major factor behind them.  Zoll has been heavily involved in personnel decisions for the last 5 years,  I am not letting him off the hook for this messed up construction of a roster just because he didn't make the final decision.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Of course, all of this is completely academic because Tom Pohlad isn't going to trade Ryan at the deadline if he has any business acumen unless he has a complete change of heart. Everything he has said to date is the opposite and even he has to know trading Ryan would kill the team and kill the fan base. I think there's a very little chance Ryan gets traded at this year's deadline for business reasons, whether or not it makes sense for baseball reasons..

I don't buy this argument at all. What business reason is there for keeping him? Fan morale? Loss of ticket sales after trading him? 

Why is that any different than trading him in the offseason? What is the business benefit of holding Joe Ryan in a season you're already looking to set the all time low ticket sale record for Target Field and can't get or stay above .500? You're taking the business hit now, in the offseason, at next deadline, or next offseason. The business hit is coming in every scenario that doesn't include a Joe Ryan extension. What is the benefit of having that hit later vs now?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, JADBP said:

Sure.  Now do you trust Zoll to make good decisions this trade season?  Based on his track record this season, I DO NOT.  Maybe Tom has to look over his shoulders a bit.  If he left everything up to Zoll…Zoll could crush this team.  As we saw last year, almost any good team is ready to jump on bad decisions by the Twins! 

Oh, I think Zoll seems incompetent. That said, Tom is not qualified to make roster decisions and I don't want him making roster decisions because the track record on owners calling the shots is disastrous. I want the people who are supposed to do their jobs to do their jobs and be held accountable or rewarded.

i.e. I don't want Tom Pohlad pitching out of a the bullpen because bullpen arms are bad, either. 

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Right.  So trade him.  

But at least TRY to sign him first.  Not even trying to sign him is irresponsible (to the org) and disrespectful (to Ryan).  Show some stones and genuinely TRY. 
 

Why do you think they haven't? Joe Ryan has a mutual option for 2027. Those are essentially never picked up, but that isn't the point. The point is that Joe Ryan and the MN Twins discussed his future with the team last offseason. They had to in order to do that option in his current deal. Why would you assume they didn't also discuss 2028 and beyond? Dan Hayes has reported that the number the Twins were given is 7 years and $210 million to sign him.

Sure sounds like they "showed some stones."

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why do you think they haven't? Joe Ryan has a mutual option for 2027. Those are essentially never picked up, but that isn't the point. The point is that Joe Ryan and the MN Twins discussed his future with the team last offseason. They had to in order to do that option in his current deal. Why would you assume they didn't also discuss 2028 and beyond? Dan Hayes has reported that the number the Twins were given is 7 years and $210 million to sign him.

Sure sounds like they "showed some stones."

Yeah, 7 $210MM for a guy who is a 3 WAR starter still under team control and hitting 30 is absolute insanity. I haven't seen that, though?

[Nshore]

1 hour ago, JADBP said:

Yeah…hmmmm…didn’t they just do that last year?  
 

No, anyone is NOT available.  Some are.  Would you trade away Jenkins, Emma and Buxton? 

Overlooking the condescension in your yeah, hmmmmmmm comment, yes they're all in play - FOR THE RIGHT DEAL.  And determining the right deals is why Zoll gets paid the big bucks.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, 7 $210MM for a guy who is a 3 WAR starter still under team control and hitting 30 is absolute insanity.

I wouldn't touch that contract for him. Would end up awful for the Twins. If those are truly the numbers he gave the Twins, they need to trade him now as he has no intention of staying here and a comp pick after another .500ish season next year would be awful asset management.

[bean5302]

1st half vs. 2nd half Joe Ryan ERA

2022 - 2.99 vs 4.14
2023 - 3.70 vs 6.09
2024 - 3.53 vs 3.98 (only 4 starts)
2025 - 2.72 vs 4.67
2026 - 2.85 vs 18.00

Signing Ryan based on his mid season form is nutso, IMHO. Ryan has never had a good 2nd half in his career.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wouldn't touch that contract for him. Would end up awful for the Twins. If those are truly the numbers he gave the Twins, they need to trade him now as he has no intention of staying here and a comp pick after another .500ish season next year would be awful asset management.

I would bet Ryan is in line for a Berrios-light contract due to his age. Shorter terms, similar AAV. Like 4-5 years $80-100MM.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I would bet Ryan is in line for a Berrios-light contract due to his age. Shorter terms, similar AAV. Like 4-5 years $80-100MM.

I don't know who all he'll be up against on the market, but I'd put the range from 4 to 6 years and 20 to 25 per year.

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know who all he'll be up against on the market, but I'd put the range from 4 to 6 years and 20 to 25 per year.

Given the current CBA/history, and given Joe Ryan will hit free agency for his age 32+ seasons, I can't see any team going to 6 on him. I think 5 is probably a stretch. Snell only got 5 at age 32 after winning 2 Cy Youngs.

That Snell contract has aged... very poorly so far.

[purplesoldier4u]

8 hours ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I agree. I love Joe Ryan. The fans are going to hate the move whether you trade Ryan now or in the offseason. Unless you can extend him now you need to get the most value from him at his peak. Ideally you get a young, pre-arb, high upside arm for him that fits the 27-28 contention window. 

Of his last five outings, two have been really good, two have been pretty bad, and one was okay. The question might be, does he even want to be here?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Of his last five outings, two have been really good, two have been pretty bad, and one was okay. The question might be, does he even want to be here?

What are you implying? That he's throwing games?