A Season-Defining Week Awaits the Twins

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are about to return from the All-Star break, and in my eyes, they're set to begin the most important week of their season. They avoided being muscled out of the playoff picture by midseason, but otherwise, nothing has been decided. They've run hot and cold all year, and now find themselves in the mangled middle.

Despite the inconsistency, though, the Twins are still very much in the hunt. They're currently tied with Seattle for the final American League Wild Card spot, and they also sit just three games behind both the White Sox and Guardians in the AL Central. As it happens, Cleveland is the team they'll see four times early next week. Before that, however, Minnesota opens the second half with a three-game series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Chicago has established itself as one of the better teams in the National League, and they look well on their way to a postseason berth. In short, with the seasonal leverage index already cranked up, the Twins have seven games coming up against two playoff-caliber opponents.

That stretch is going to tell us a lot about what this team is made of. More importantly, it could legitimately determine what this roster looks like for the rest of the season. The Twins are still in that awkward position where it's difficult to know exactly how they should approach the trade deadline. They're close enough to the playoff picture that buying makes sense, but they're also inconsistent enough that selling isn't out of the question. The next seven games could go a long way toward answering that question.

Let's say the Twins stumble to a 2-5 showing against the Cubs and Guardians. That would leave them at 50-54. Even in the best-case scenario (assuming, among other things, both of those wins came against Cleveland), they'd still be at least three games behind the Guardians. Depending on how the rest of the Wild Card race develops, they'd probably find themselves slipping further behind there as well. At that point, the front office would have to ask itself some difficult questions.

On the other hand, imagine the Twins stay hot and go 5-2 over the next week. Suddenly, they're 53-51 and right back in the thick of everything. They'd be firmly alive in the Wild Card race and could find themselves right on the heels of the division leaders, or maybe even sitting atop the AL Central. That would completely change the conversation.

Winning is one thing. Winning against high-quality competition is another. If the Twins take care of business against the Cubs and Guardians, what kind of message does that send to the front office? To me, it would be a sign that this team deserves reinforcements, especially if they're able to do it without Byron Buxton in the lineup. If the Twins can beat two playoff-caliber teams while missing their best player, I'd have a hard time sitting on the sidelines at the trade deadline. At that point, I'd be looking for pitching help wherever I could find it.

Whether that's another starting pitcher, bullpen help, or both, the goal should be maximizing this team's chances to win the division—or, at the very least, lock down a Wild Card spot. The opportunity is there, but the opposite is also true. If the Twins lose both series and struggle against quality competition, that may be the clearest sign yet that they simply aren't on the same level as the league's contenders. If that's the case, selling becomes a much more realistic option. Maybe you move some of your veteran pieces. Players like Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, and others could all generate interest from contenders looking to add before the deadline. While none of those players would bring back franchise-altering returns on their own, collectively, they could help Minnesota add future value while opening opportunities for younger players. It's not just about where the Twins stand in the race after seven games. It's about what direction the organization chooses over the next couple of weeks.

Another thing I'll be watching closely is how the Twins decide to structure their starting rotation. With seven games over the next week, there's an opportunity for two starters to throw twice. Ideally, those two would be Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley. Those are your two best starters, and if you're trying to maximize your chances of winning the biggest week of the season, it makes sense to have your best arms on the mound as often as possible.

The complication, of course, is timing. Ryan and Bradley both pitched against the Angels last weekend, with Ryan throwing on Saturday and Bradley following on Sunday. Ryan also made an appearance in Tuesday night's All-Star Game, even if it was only for one inning. That could make it difficult to line everything up exactly the way you'd like. So how do the Twins approach it?

In deference to some of those concerns, they elected to start Bailey Ober to open the second half. Bradley will follow him, and Zebby Matthews gets the ball Sunday. Ryan will, presumably, open the Cleveland series; Bradley is positioned to close it.

The priority right now should be putting your team in the best position to win. They've done that, while also giving Ryan a bit of time to recover from the whirlwind of All-Star Week and an intense between-starts appearance in the cauldron of Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park. No matter how the rotation shakes out, though, one thing feels certain. This next week of baseball is going to tell us a lot about who the 2026 Minnesota Twins really are. And depending on how it unfolds, it could have a major impact on what this team looks like for the rest of the season.

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[Peter]

Huge huge huge set of games!!! Need to go

4-3, all games are must watch rest of season!!! have gut feeling twins are going to win division!!! 

[mikelink45]

Use your starters as long as possible. Keep the BP fresh.  Make some moves with your excess - the OF now has Larnach and Keaschall and Martin and Roden and in the wings Gonzales, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Fedko, Wallner, Mendez  Teams like Houston need OF help.  Move the excess, 

1B/DH has Bell, Lewis, Caratini, Jeffers, Clemens, Sabato, Gray, Winokur, Amick - more than enough  Move the excess!

U has Gray, Kriedler, Martin, Ross, DeBarge - we only need two. 

Get BP help, 

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Use your starters as long as possible. Keep the BP fresh.  Make some moves with your excess - the OF now has Larnach and Keaschall and Martin and Roden and in the wings Gonzales, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Fedko, Wallner, Mendez  Teams like Houston need OF help.  Move the excess, 

1B/DH has Bell, Lewis, Caratini, Jeffers, Clemens, Sabato, Gray, Winokur, Amick - more than enough  Move the excess!

U has Gray, Kriedler, Martin, Ross, DeBarge - we only need two. 

Get BP help, 

I'm ready for a gamble type trade that brings in something that lights up the board, whether that is a top ten prospect, a relief arm, or a starting pitcher. In some ways I don't expect much to occur but I'm ready.

I don't think our fringe guys will bring much, but perhaps they can be used as an extra piece. You name some outfielders and maybe one or more of Roden, Rodriguez, and Mendez/Gonzalez fit somewhere in a trade. I doubt that anyone but Jeffers brings anything from the DH/1B group and the utility types don't really have much value. 

I do agree it would be nice to see a big trade. The reality is that the next 16 games should or could tell us which teams will want someone or be willing to give up talent. I'm looking at San Diego if they crater and if the Twins get above .500. There may be a move with Preller (SDP) possible. August 2 will be a big day across MLB.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

IMO, as it sits, this team needs 1 more playoff caliber starting pitcher and closer. Minimum. Ryan and Taj you'd put up against any team in the playoffs. Nobody else as theyre currently performing would fit that description. Gomez and Morris are the only trustworthy guys in the pen. Recent moved seem to have raised the floor a little but we need at minimum a proven, experienced closer that can shut down the heart of an opposing line up in the 9th inning of a playoff game. 

Thats just my bare minimum.  Of course another good arm or 2 in the pen would also be great. But with Sands coming back and assuming he will perform well as another set up guy that fills a spot. We just got Nance, so hopefully he is good. Maybe find a shutdown Lefty. Rogers and Fundy just dont seem to be trustworthy. 

Bullpen: Trade for Closer. Set up guys with Gomez, Morris, Sands. Move Paredes to the pen and see how he does. We have Nance. Go is a question mark and has a small window here to audition. Rogers and Fundy just are not trustworthy. Finding a great Lefty to displace them would be best. 

Starters obviously Ryan and Taj are 1-2. I'd like 1 more high end guy here. Zebby 4th. Ober/Prielipp 5th. Paredes to the pen. 

DH. Im trading Bell while his value is high. Hes not part of the future and a free agent at years end. Im moving Larnach from LF to DH. (I believe Larnach still has 1 arbitration year left) 

Catcher is covered. If we're going all in, Jeffers and Jackson are my Catchers. Caratini is traded. Jeffers gets a QO with hopes to resign him to an extension. 

1B has Lewis. He's been doing fine. Could be upgraded or could stay with him and hope he continues to hit lime he has since his recall. 

2B. Id like to see Clemens there everyday. His defense is great and his bat has been very good this year. 

SS has Kriedler until Culpepper is ready. Then Kriedler move to a super utility role that best fits his skills as a top defender at many positions. 

3B is Lee's. I'd like someone better, but I dont see the team replacing him. 

LF is currently Larnach and Martin. Decent platoon. This is the spot an upgrade could be used the most IMO. Martin is great a great defender there but a Platoon bat at best right now. Larnach is best suited as a DH. My move? Trade for a high end LFer with a very good bat. Should be a very easy spot to fill at the deadline. (Or let a young guy come up and get a tryout) Martin is 4th OF that can still cover IF in an emergency. Larnach moves to DH. 

Center is Buxton. 

RF is covered by Keaschall. His bat has come around and I think he'll do well out there. 

Gray is sent down or traded. When Culpepper is called up, Kriedler becomes Super Utility guy. Martin is 4th OF. 

Rodens spot can be held by him or one of the other AAA guys waiting. 

 

[Blyleven2011]

Sam , I concur the twins are hot and cold , inconsistencies through the season  , even the fans have inconsistencies  , highs when winning , lows when losing , we need a balanced harmony for this team ...

Going against the cubbies who are contenders is crucial and will give the twins the most problems , we have to win 1 game for sure in wrigleyville or were sunk , Cleveland is ahead of us but in a weak division , I don't see them as contenders , they are missing their star third baseman , twins must win 3 against them or we are sunk ...

I still see us as sellers until the team proves me wrong , as I've mentioned in other articles jeffers and larnach are expendable and replaceable ,  twins could still play hot and cold even if we kept them past the deadline  ...

The team has played exciting baseball and it would be exciting if we could get a playoff berth but in the playoffs we are not a contender , the FO would really have to buy / add something significant to turn this team into a real contenders at the deadline ..

The boys have got to come out of the break hungry,  develop a killer instinct  , I'll be rooting them on and hopefully we can get 10 game winning streak or more going  ...

[Linus]

To me it doesn’t matter substantially whether they go 10-6 or 6-10. This club is not ready to make a serious run so I would not spend precious prospect capital trying to win now unless it solves a problem for several more years. One exception I would make is attaching a non-elite prospect to Bell or Larnach to get a higher quality player in return. 

[TopGunn#22]

Getting that initial win in Chicago was very good.  I'm still straddling the fence on the Twins.  I love the job Shelton has done,  The Twins have exceeded all my expectations for the season.  That said, there are too many flaws and just too much bad luck (losing Lopez for the season to begin with and then Abel, who has a small chance of coming back).  

I think this is a classic case of the Twins FO trying to thread the needle and do both...buy and sell.  

Jeffers is a must trade.  He's gone at seasons end and Caratini and Jackson have done well.  Jeffers will bring back something good.  If the Yankees want him, I'd demand Carlos LaGrange or no deal.  Boston is interested as are the Cubs.  Jeffers will bring back something good.  

I'm not trading Clemens.  He's just too important to team success.  He plays all over the place and his defense is always solid.  He's flat out better than Willi Castro.  He's a better fielder everywhere and hits with far more power.  But for Larnach and Josh Bell, I'm open for business. 

It's risky trading Larnach.  He's having a career year at the plate.  But his defense is still sub-par.  Keaschall, Walker Jenkins or Roden are all superior defensive players and each has a chance to be a positive for the offense.  We need another decent SP.  If I had to give up some minor league talent to get a Robbie Ray (or someone similar) I think I'd do it.  Maybe even expand the trade to include Luis Arraez.  Is there a Closer out there who could be had?

The big question is Joe Ryan.  Trading him makes sense.  His value will never be higher.  But trading him, to me, effectively cuts the heart out of this plucky team.  Unless the return was AWESOME, and I don't even think I can honestly define what awesome would be, I just can't trade Joe Ryan unless the Twins just collapse.  Lose 7 or 8 in a row.  

Could Joe Ryan be traded after the season ends?  Could he still be traded if there is an almost immediate Lockout/Strike?  As improbable as it seems, the Twins are fully in the playoff hunt.  Winning that first game at Wrigley against the Cubs was very encouraging.  We have 4 games with Cleveland.  We may be missing Buxton (or not) but Cleveland will surely be missing Jose Ramirez.  

The Twins FO is going to have to thread the needle.  I don't envy their task.  I can concoct all sorts of trades from the comfort of my sports den with zero consequences,  If Tom Pohlad and Jeremy Zoll screw this up, there WILL be consequences.