The Louis Varland Trade Keeps Looking Worse

[Cody Pirkl]

23 hours ago, rdehring said:

Here we go again, another article bashing the Twins for a trade they made last July. 

When any team trades a player for prospects no one, I repeat no one will know the outcome for several years until those prospects have had time to either fail to make the big leagues or arrive, so we know what they are capable of doing.  Halfway thru this year certainly isn't time for any conclusion on who won the trade.  Maybe a year from now we will have an idea who won the trade.  Or two years?

The thing is a lot of the trade returns at the 2025 trade deadline were for players that were either fully or near MLB ready so they could help in 2026 when the team called themselves contenders. For the historic amount of trades the team made, Taj Bradley is the single player who has really made any impact at all in 2026. That includes 26 year old Alan Roden, who was half of the Varland trade and was a terrible return the second it was announced because of his age an position. 

My response to the "its too early to judge" take is that if Kendry Rojas, Alan Roden etc. were making an impact right now, people who hated this trade when it happened would be getting dunked on for their overly negative takes. Instead they've been proven absolutely correct so far and they're not supposed to comment on it at all for the next six years? Nah

[HarmonK03]

18 hours ago, Linus said:

Too early to judge. There is a scenario where it works out as Rojas has potential. I am not worried about having too many left handed hitting outfielders. Jenkins is as sure a thing as you can get with a prospect. But the rest of the group (Em Rod, Roden, Mendez) are hardly sure things. Would not surprise me at all that one or none end up being a bona fide big leaguer.  If we get lucky and end up with a couple they can be traded. 

How do you give them all a chance and look at them when they are all basically on the same development timeline.  Only a couple will get a real look and we better hope they choose the correct ones to give a look to.

[David Maro]

At the point of this trade the BP cupboard was bear there was only 2 arms left. And then the new FO did nothing in the off season to fill the need. And now have had to get DFAed arms and bring an arm from Saints up today and down tomorrow. Plus the 2 arms that were left,1 has been on IL all season and the other has had trouble throwing strikes and been back and forth to AAA.

With the team playing far better than anyone thought this team probably would be a .500 team or better with a BP that Varland was a part of. 

The other trade that hasn't seen fruit is the Duran trade,Abel needed to be part of the rotation and is on the IL until probably September. And yes he may be good to go next year,but they needed him this year. When Lopez had the have TJ that left a big hole in the rotation and Abel would have been the answer.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

How do you give them all a chance and look at them when they are all basically on the same development timeline.  Only a couple will get a real look and we better hope they choose the correct ones to give a look to.

Not a problem. Roden should be up now and EmRod isn’t even healthy yet - he can come up after the trade deadline. Same with Mendez and there certainly will be an injury between now and September. 

[HarmonK03]

27 minutes ago, Linus said:

Not a problem. Roden should be up now and EmRod isn’t even healthy yet - he can come up after the trade deadline. Same with Mendez and there certainly will be an injury between now and September. 

And so Martin and Keaschall are no longer in the picture.  And is Shelton going to be more flexible with his lineups to get everybody AB's.  Also do we continue to keep platooning.  And if Jenkins shows he is ready are you really going to hold him back.  And no I don't care about 2027 or service time if he is ready he should be up here.  And how many AB's do you consider a long enough look.  The point is there are a lot of considerations and that is not even considering the RH batters that could be ready by next year.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

And so Martin and Keaschall are no longer in the picture.  And is Shelton going to be more flexible with his lineups to get everybody AB's.  Also do we continue to keep platooning.  And if Jenkins shows he is ready are you really going to hold him back.  And no I don't care about 2027 or service time if he is ready he should be up here.  And how many AB's do you consider a long enough look.  The point is there are a lot of considerations and that is not even considering the RH batters that could be ready by next year.

I get your point. I’m not worried about it. it can be done if they want to make it  happen. If they don’t then that’s on them. 

[darin617]

22 hours ago, Twodogs said:

6 games is a lot for one player, not saying it couldn't be 6.  But im pretty sure we could go through the schedule right now and find 3 games for sure where he makes the difference.   But think about that, if we can flip 3 games the Twins would be above .500???

Just look at how many times they had a lead and blew it?  Varland could have saved them and also having a legit closer would stop them throwing any guy out there in hopes he could get 3 outs.

It also pushes the weakest RP out of the pen and moves everyone else into roles.

[Sjoski]

On 7/4/2026 at 9:54 AM, Twins GFP said:

While the trade seemed odd at the time, no one will really know why the trade was made. Were there behind-the-scenes issues?

From my understanding,  Falvey said they weren't looking to trade him, but Toronto's offer was irresistible....honestly, who among us can say no to a lifetime supply of maple syrup.

[Derojo]

The fire sale by the Twins is (non-cynical version) for a reason. They can't out spend other clubs, so the only path to return to the World Series is to stock the minor leagues with prospects. There have to be enough prospects, because no one knows who will succeed, who will remain healthy (Buxton, Lewis), etc. That's their only path to the World Series. It's been since 1991 since the Twins have played a meaningful game that might lead to the World Series. I'm not getting any younger, and neither are you. If you wish to see the Twins even be in another World Series, stop your bitchin, and see what happens in two to three years. Even then, the window is more like four to five years to actually make World Series moves. When did American men become such impatient whiney bi%$&%s? 

[Cody Pirkl]

On 7/4/2026 at 10:36 AM, Brandon said:

I don't think Varland pitches that good here,  Rojas is a really good prospect, Roden can be useful.  This trade is better than the Berrios trade.  Give Rojas a chance to shine.  Also did Varland want out?  I think he wanted opportunity to start.  

As I mentioned, Varland doesn't have to pitch this well here if they kept him. If he were just his 2025 self he's their best reliever and a transformative piece of the bullpen mix. 

Maybe Roden can be useful, but its impossible to say because they don't see him worthy of MLB playing time so far. 

If Rojas becomes a starting pitcher then the Twins should win in terms of value. Thats not looking likely so far though, and the Twins needed help this year and aren't getting it from Rojas.

Also theres no evidence of Varland wanting out, in fact theres quite a bit of evidence that he was devastated when he was shipped out. If he wanted an opportunity to start, that's also not going so well for him.

[Cody Pirkl]

12 hours ago, Derojo said:

The fire sale by the Twins is (non-cynical version) for a reason. They can't out spend other clubs, so the only path to return to the World Series is to stock the minor leagues with prospects. There have to be enough prospects, because no one knows who will succeed, who will remain healthy (Buxton, Lewis), etc. That's their only path to the World Series. It's been since 1991 since the Twins have played a meaningful game that might lead to the World Series. I'm not getting any younger, and neither are you. If you wish to see the Twins even be in another World Series, stop your bitchin, and see what happens in two to three years. Even then, the window is more like four to five years to actually make World Series moves. When did American men become such impatient whiney bi%$&%s? 

Except they'd be in a playoff spot right now with even just Varland still in the bullpen. I get that they have to be fluid and build internally, but they should have had to be blown away to punt on the 2026 season by completely gutting the bullpen. If they were, they may just not be very good at talent evaluation. They clearly think very little of Alan Roden and think far too much of Kendry Rojas if that offer was too good to refuse. 

 I also find it extremely ironic that you point out that we aren't getting any younger while also downplaying the fact that they essentially punted on 2026 when keeping just one reliever at last year's deadline would have them in playoff position.

[bean5302]

13 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Except they'd be in a playoff spot right now with even just Varland still in the bullpen...

Can you do the math on that for me? What player does Varland replace on the roster?

The bullpen hasn't been a crippling reason the Twins have actually lost games this year. The Twins are tied for 16th in losses attributed to relievers and are above average at 13th in blown saves. Middle of the road. Sure, the bullpen has imploded on many occasions, but rarely were the Twins looking like they were going to win the game when it happened.

As others have pointed out, as a ground ball pitcher, Varland wouldn't have been as successful with balls slow-rolling past Brooks Lee or bouncing off the glove of Luke Keaschall.

Lets suppose Varland turns around two games (plausible) and the Twins are now +0.5 games on the Wildcard... Who cares? It's July, not the end of September.

The Twins front office boldly traded basically their entire bullpen and then did NOTHING to address the black hole this offseason. That's the issue. Not trading what looked like a probable middle reliever or at best, a setup guy.

 

[Cody Pirkl]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Can you do the math on that for me? What player does Varland replace on the roster?

The bullpen hasn't been a crippling reason the Twins have actually lost games this year. The Twins are tied for 16th in losses attributed to relievers and are above average at 13th in blown saves. Middle of the road. Sure, the bullpen has imploded on many occasions, but rarely were the Twins looking like they were going to win the game when it happened.

As others have pointed out, as a ground ball pitcher, Varland wouldn't have been as successful with balls slow-rolling past Brooks Lee or bouncing off the glove of Luke Keaschall.

Lets suppose Varland turns around two games (plausible) and the Twins are now +0.5 games on the Wildcard... Who cares? It's July, not the end of September.

The Twins front office boldly traded basically their entire bullpen and then did NOTHING to address the black hole this offseason. That's the issue. Not trading what looked like a probable middle reliever or at best, a setup guy.

 

Pick any bottom of the barrel reliever they're thrown out there this year and replace them with Varland. Even if he was his 2025 self, he's the best pitcher in this bullpen. 

They have a bottom of the league bullpen ERA, which has knocked out plenty of save opportunities by games getting out of hand before they get to the later innings. There's no math needed to say that Varland at the top of the hierarchy would push everyone else down a peg and not only convert a higher percentage of saves, but create more save opportunities. Thats just common sense.

And the thing about praising their plan to trade away all the relievers while hating that they did nothing to replace them is that completing step 1 but not step 2 makes it a bad plan. If I sold my car today for more than I paid for it, but don't buy another one to get to and from work everyday, the price I got for my car is pretty irrelevant.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Can you do the math on that for me? What player does Varland replace on the roster?

The bullpen hasn't been a crippling reason the Twins have actually lost games this year. The Twins are tied for 16th in losses attributed to relievers and are above average at 13th in blown saves. Middle of the road. Sure, the bullpen has imploded on many occasions, but rarely were the Twins looking like they were going to win the game when it happened.

As others have pointed out, as a ground ball pitcher, Varland wouldn't have been as successful with balls slow-rolling past Brooks Lee or bouncing off the glove of Luke Keaschall.

Lets suppose Varland turns around two games (plausible) and the Twins are now +0.5 games on the Wildcard... Who cares? It's July, not the end of September.

The Twins front office boldly traded basically their entire bullpen and then did NOTHING to address the black hole this offseason. That's the issue. Not trading what looked like a probable middle reliever or at best, a setup guy.

 

He drops everyone down a level though.  So his ERA is 1.5 to 2.0 with the Twins because of defense that isn't quite as good.  He would have been the Twins closer coming into the season and would have solidified the early season woes.   The Twins bullpen has gotten drastically better effectively when the twins got Gomez.  He has slotted into the closer role and has done extremely well.  I still question if he could fall off- but his stuff seems pretty good and the sweeper has really elevated his pitch mix.  Giving him another weapon to keep hitters off balance.  

Even still it is not a game changer right now.  The front office refused to pay or trade to rebuild the bullpen.  They are taking the long approach to try to find castoffs and internal options to rebuild the bullpen.  2027 -2028 still feels like the time period where the Twins will really try to win.   We are in a limbo where they are playing solid ball but not good enough to really do damage in the playoffs in my opinion.  

Overall though,  I completely agree with the main points of your post.   

[TheLeviathan]

On 7/4/2026 at 10:22 AM, Danchat said:

My issue with the trade is that Roden is seemingly being treated like a throw-in and Rojas seems to be the key to the trade - but trading 5 years of control of a good reliever for a single pitching prospect, a notoriously risky asset, is not good business. Yes, we didn't foresee Varland becoming an elite closer, but putting all of Varland's trade value into Rojas instead of more prospects wasn't a good call. They easily could have waited until 2026/27 to trade him.

Roden has had troubles staying healthy, but he's been good to go for a few weeks now and is raking in AAA. I don't know if he will be a useful major league player, but what's the point in postponing finding out what they have in him? He's had something like 600 PAs in AAA with very few struggles mixed in there, now is the time to play him. Frankly, they should trade him for what they can get because what's the point of holding on to him? If Jenkins and Rodriguez and others like Mendez are going to get chances over him, why not cash him in at the trade deadline for something they might use?

This entire trade feels like the Family Guy "It could even be a boat" joke except we dealt a good reliever for a guy with a chance to be a good reliever.  At least that's what it feels like given we banished Roden to some other dimension and forgot about him in favor of Josh Bell.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 7/5/2026 at 9:51 AM, Cody Pirkl said:

The thing is a lot of the trade returns at the 2025 trade deadline were for players that were either fully or near MLB ready so they could help in 2026 when the team called themselves contenders. For the historic amount of trades the team made, Taj Bradley is the single player who has really made any impact at all in 2026. That includes 26 year old Alan Roden, who was half of the Varland trade and was a terrible return the second it was announced because of his age an position. 

My response to the "its too early to judge" take is that if Kendry Rojas, Alan Roden etc. were making an impact right now, people who hated this trade when it happened would be getting dunked on for their overly negative takes. Instead they've been proven absolutely correct so far and they're not supposed to comment on it at all for the next six years? Nah

You seem to forget Mick Abel who looks like he belongs at the MLB level if he can remain healthy.  

As to prospects with a full 6 years left,  you have Rojas, Roden, Mendez, Tait, Gallagher, Jimenez.  

They have only been proven correct so far because Varland has had an epic 1st half of the season.  Good for him.  No one was saying anything last season when he had a negative war the majority of the 2nd half of the season and ended with a zero war prior to the playoffs.   

[Danchat]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They have only been proven correct so far because Varland has had an epic 1st half of the season.  Good for him.  No one was saying anything last season when he had a negative war the majority of the 2nd half of the season and ended with a zero war prior to the playoffs. 

Perhaps the Twins could have waited to see Varland's second full season in the bullpen before moving him, he's still got 3 years of control after this season finishes. Rojas and Roden could produce enough to justify the move, but I argue the Twins were absolutely wrong to trade him when they did.

Feels eerily similar to the Pressly trade, and even that one was for 1.5 years of control of him rather than 4.5 of Varland... and also similar was the defense that Alcala and Celestino would justify the move.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

24 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Perhaps the Twins could have waited to see Varland's second full season in the bullpen before moving him, he's still got 3 years of control after this season finishes. Rojas and Roden could produce enough to justify the move, but I argue the Twins were absolutely wrong to trade him when they did.

Feels eerily similar to the Pressly trade, and even that one was for 1.5 years of control of him rather than 4.5 of Varland... and also similar was the defense that Alcala and Celestino would justify the move.

I continue to pound the pavement the return for the Twins is more than just Roden and Rojas- it’s also whoever we get at #3 in the draft, and it appears to be a higher probability we get either Cholowsky or Emerson which would be a major boon.  Prospects are prospects but both have ceilings that are extremely high.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

15 hours ago, Danchat said:

Perhaps the Twins could have waited to see Varland's second full season in the bullpen before moving him, he's still got 3 years of control after this season finishes. Rojas and Roden could produce enough to justify the move, but I argue the Twins were absolutely wrong to trade him when they did.

Feels eerily similar to the Pressly trade, and even that one was for 1.5 years of control of him rather than 4.5 of Varland... and also similar was the defense that Alcala and Celestino would justify the move.

I've been consistent that I don't think they should have traded Varland.  He should have been the de facto closer coming into the season.