Anthony Banda Changed. Or Did he? It's Complicated, But the Numbers Aren't

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

It was May 8, and Anthony Banda had a problem. He stood on the mound in Cleveland, a journeyman: the common clay of MLB relievers. Guys like him barnstorm across the league, offering their services in low-leverage situations for a relative pittance—in this case, $1.625 million and whatever future considerations the Twins gave to the Dodgers in exchange for the lefty hurler. The problem? Banda entered the game with an 8.04 ERA, and would crank it up to 8.27 following this outing. Something had to change. 

And so it did. Banda pitched 1 ⅓ scoreless innings two days after that appearance at Progressive Field, with a pair of strikeouts. Can you spot the adjustment Banda made between outings?

Instead of the high-leg kick he’s used since his second season in MLB, Banda switched to a simple slide-step, and the results so far have been promising. He has since experimented with a modified, medium-sized leg kick, starting with the Astros series, but May 10 remains a sharp line between his old style and his new one, given that the new leg kick isn’t as extreme as the previous one.

Banda’s main issue early in the season was a ghastly lack of control. He had already plunked six batters and uncorked four wild pitches as of May 8, pushing previously shaky command to untenable levels. Nor was it just one offering suffering: he hit three batters each with his heater and slider. After that last brutal outing, his rate of pitches in the “waste zone”—the part of the strike zone so utterly out of the way that it rarely ever results in a positive outcome for the pitcher—was 12.4%, the 4th-highest total in the league among hurlers who had thrown at least 400 pitches. Life is hard when an eighth of your pitches are uncompetitive. 

Since the switch, his waste rate hasn’t improved. It actually crept up a little, to 12.9%, though no pitch (save a back-foot slider to Rhys Hoskins) came close to hitting someone. Is the mechanical change a red herring? Is the sample too small? Five of those misses came on the day he made the change—perhaps a sign of growing pains—and two came in the rain-soaked Boston game on Sunday. Perhaps this is simply something that should be earmarked to return to at a later date.

Not all pitches to the waste zone are created equal, though. The real difference, it appears, is part mechanical, and part managerial. Before May 10, 40% of Banda’s pitches came against lefties, but since then, 55% of his offerings have come with the platoon advantage. As a result, he’s been able to pitch more against lefties. Unsurprisingly, he's been better against them throughout his career. You can also live a bit more in the waste zone left-on-left, with the slider that makes Banda good when he's right moving well out of the zone but inducing chases. What else happened on May 10? Travis Adams re-joined the Twins bullpen, giving them more relief depth against right-handed hitters. 

To this author, the change in usage goes hand in hand with the adjustment Banda made: seven of the awry balls from the lefty since he cut down on his leg kick have been sliders against lefties, pitches that will almost never result in a hit by pitch. It appears he’s gripping and ripping at the same rate as before, but with better matchups, he's able to do without fear of plunking batters and with a better chance of getting a hopeless swing from an opponent.

In conceiving of and writing this story, the conclusion changed a few times. Obviously, something had happened to unlock a better version of Banda, but what was it? The slide step sparked the notion, but the numbers don’t lie: Derek Shelton simply has been able to find better spots to use his lefty hurler. His cobbling of loose pieces and unrefined goods early in the season resulted in awkward fits—pushing guys into situations they don’t excel in—which likely resulted in Banda’s ugly stats. Since then, though, Banda has culled two runs off his ERA, and he now looks like a somewhat reliable arm, given the right context. As long as his save Friday isn't indicative of a future as the team's closer, Banda appears to have found his way back to a successful groove.

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[Patzky]

The right guy in the right place at the right time.

Man.. they're the experts.

[ashbury]

52 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

He stood on the mound in Cleveland, a journeyman: the common clay of MLB relievers. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed, usage has a lot to do with Banda’s improvement. I also think it’s the high variability he and all the other mediocre relief pitchers go through. He’s had similar bad stretches and good stretches in the past, but his overall stats look pretty similar to his career.

look for Banda to crap the bed and be lights out over a few more stretches this season 

[DocBauer]

I was OK when they acquired Banda. He's a helpful bullpen piece. But I NEVER understood the excitement others felt. Based on all career numbers, he was a lesser version of Thielbar in his prime. But still a viable piece to the bullpen. I was actually more excited about the signing of old friend Rogers based on experience. 

I was also somewhat excited, with trepidation, that Funderburk would continue his 2025 advancement in performance. 

So what have we gotten so far?

Funderburk looked pretty solid until he left for a child birth leave of absence. Suddenly he couldn't throw strikes when he came back. I still think there's a pretty solid "first LH" out of the pen option there, but he needs to fight his way back.

Rogers has been slightly less than I had hoped for. He's been OK. He's had a couuple poor appearances, and a few good ones. He was solid today, Tuesday, against the Dirty Sox.

Banda was damn near DFA status a couple weeks ago. And it's great that some adjustments he's made has him back on track. He is ABSOLUTELY throwing better. 

But his USAGE has also been better. And that's because Morris is being turned in to a high velocity late inning arm who has generally been productive. It's because the Twins MIGHT have found the next "Stewart" in Gomez, thank the baseball gods. And LH Rojas...whatever his future role is to be...has also made a huge difference for the staff.

No question Banda has been better with some changes. But he's also better as the pen, overall, has been better. 

[Brandon]

Hey you read my post in the forum on Banda's improvement.  

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Good article. I was well aware of his ghastly ERA, but didn't realize how wild Banda had been, chalking up multiple wild pitches and plunking a bunch of batters. Let's hope he has settled down and can be a positive contributor to our bullpen. 

[JD-TWINS]

The first two years he pitched considerable innings were his last two in L.A. ……. 49 plus & 65 innings respectively. His ERA in those years was 3.08 & 3.18.

I’ve seen her that his “advanced metrics” would show he isn’t as competent as those two year’s ERA would suggest.

IMO, he threw 114 innings over last two years with a combined 3.14 ERA. Even if he’s a run higher on ERA in ‘26, he’s got value and can be effective in spots.

During the broadcast last night they said that going into the game, the PEN’s ERA over last 16 games was 2.40. ……… that’s a third of the season, so far. Now have guys that “can contribute” generally, for months to come.

Adams - Gomez - Orze - Rogers - Banda - Morris - SWR - Rojas …….. if they can continue to not “get overworked”, they are a competent group. Nobody is dominant, for sure.

Velocity uptick and lesser pitch mix for SWR adds to his value - Gomez & Morris bring some velocity, along with Rojas. These guys weren’t in the mix the first 35-40 games of the season.

5 games into a stretch of 17 days w/o an off day ……….. PEN will be tested!

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

The first two years he pitched considerable innings were his last two in L.A. ……. 49 plus & 65 innings respectively. His ERA in those years was 3.08 & 3.18.

I’ve seen her that his “advanced metrics” would show he isn’t as competent as those two year’s ERA would suggest.

IMO, he threw 114 innings over last two years with a combined 3.14 ERA. Even if he’s a run higher on ERA in ‘26, he’s got value and can be effective in spots...

I don't think it's reasonable to ignore everything in pink to focus only on his ERA for two seasons with the Dodgers. Banda was fringey when he was young and in his prime.

2024 is honestly the outlier. That's the only season where he got solid results AND his results were largely expected.

2018, where he pitched 14.2 innings, was the only other time his results and expected results were acceptable for a bullpen piece.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think it's reasonable to ignore everything in pink to focus only on his ERA for two seasons with the Dodgers. Banda was fringey when he was young and in his prime.

2024 is honestly the outlier. That's the only season where he got solid results AND his results were largely expected.

2018, where he pitched 14.2 innings, was the only other time his results and expected results were acceptable for a bullpen piece.

I understand your point of view - I just disagree. Looking at a guy’s entire career when talking about expected performance this week and beyond seems like a stretch.

What did Bryce Turang do in ‘24 vs. ‘25 & ‘26? Things change - both for good and bad.

What are “expectations” based on metrics for Bailey Ober? Do we look at Trevor Rogers entire career and project that he will be dominant because he was 6 years ago?

Banda threw 65 innings last year and had a 3.18 ERA. Year prior he threw 49 1/3 innings and had a 3.08 ERA………. do I expect him to match those numbers? No.

Do I think he can contribute in his role and have a manageable ERA of around 4.00 through the year? Yes.

[bean5302]

Banda's latest changes don't have much sample size, especially given all the changes. Not just to the leg lift, but also to the pitch types and the velos the last two outings. It seems like this is the kitchen sink approach as he's on the edges of his MLB career ending.