Barring injury how do top hitters in AAA make MLB?

[Trov]

We all know injuries will happen and that normally opens spots for AAA guys to come up.  But outside of injuries, what will need to happen to get one of the 5 hitters in AAA that hopefully will try to force their way onto the roster?  The five guys I am talking about are Jenkins, E-Rod, Gonzales, Roden, and Culpepper.  Both Jenkins and Culpepper are not on the 40 man. Culpepper is the only infielder of the group too.

So we already have a log jam even in AAA for playing time in the OF as only 3 of the 4 can play out there and the 4th normally DH's and they rotate around. Culpepper is mostly playing SS and some 3rd. In regards to Culpepper, I think his path is easier, without injury to someone, because only Lee is blocking is playing time.  Yes, we have Grey in there for SS, but he is not going to be the one stopping Culpepper if he is crushing in AAA, it will be Lee.  Lewis could be the one that loses playing to Culpepper as well, but his history of possibly being a star will give him longer rope.  Lee has been hot recently at the plate, but his defense is subpar at SS, and unless you are an elite hitter, which his career is not that, then you are double hurting yourself by having him at SS.  If Lee does not become and elite hitter, or at minimum pick up his defense, his time as starter will be cut short if Culpepper, an assumed better defender than Lee, crushes in AAA.

The OF guys it is a much harder path.  Specifically because 3 hit left handed, and Gonzales the righty is considered a poor defender.  Additionally, at the MLB level, they are pretty set in what they are doing.  Buck in CF, and if he is not there he will play one of the corner OF spot.  Wallner is getting all the starts and seems to be the number 2 OF, despite his early struggles at plate.  Larnach and Martin are platooning in LF and it is working very well so far. Outman is the 5th guy out there, but he only replaces Buck when they want to rest him, or late inning running or defense.  In terms of possible DH at bats those have been mostly Bell who has shared 1st with Cartini and Clemons. 

So how does one of the guys down in AAA get a shot without injuries?  Some might say send Outman down as he does nothing on offense.   Except for other than Roden, the team is not wasting service time on a late inning replacement guy.  They could do it with Roden, and maybe that is his path.  Larnach and Martin both crushing and out of options it will take a bit to drop them, as they would need to be offered up on waivers.  Also, Martin is right handed so unlikely they would want to take him away for anyone other than Gonzales. 

The most clear path would be sending down Wallner, he has 1 option year left, and he is not doing well at the plate.  I know it is great to have his power threat in the line up, but he is an OPS of .629 right now.  If that continues for too long and there are guys in AAA that are possibly better defenders and more consistent hitters, that is the clearest path right now.  This is because other than Roden, any call up of the other guys will be to play every day.  If Larnach drops off a ton, then he would be next to look at DFA, but being how much he is getting paid it will need to be a huge drop off in my opinion or a clear super hitting AAA guy to make that move happen.

Most likely injuries will force the moves first, but if not, I could see Culpepper forcing Lee out of starting spot, but he will either need to show above average defense with average offense or above average offense with average defense to really force the hand right now.  Lee is on thin ice though.  As for the OF, Roden could take Outman roll, and start to push Wallner for playing time sooner than the other 3 guys.  If any of the other 3 are pushing for time at big league it will be for Wallner's spot as a starter, or Larnach most likely.   

[The Great Hambino]

If Outman is sent down/out, his call-up replacement doesn't necessarily have to just assume his role.  Especially with Kreidler around to offer cover in CF in a pinch (which has to be the only thing keeping Outman on the roster at this point), roles could be reshuffled in a way that results in the callup sharing time with Martin, Larnach spending more time at DH (or RF if Wallner needs his playing time scaled back), and Bell can play more at 1B.  Clemens is the one whose playing time takes a hit.

We can deal with what to do when Lewis is healthy when he's healthy.  Are they still thinking he'll be back early next week?  I haven't read or heard anything good or bad

[thelanges5]

I read an article on mlb.com, that Lewis thinks he’ll be back in New York against the Mets next week. That being said, the players aren’t always the best source for this type of information.

If the Twins sell again at the deadline, we’ll see some of these guys called up. They could also start hitting their way into the discussion, but none of them are really lighting up AAA at this point. Unless they are playing nearly every day, it is better to leave them in Saint Paul.

[bean5302]

Step 1, git gud. Emma was below average in AAA until his 2HR game. If guys aren't raking in AAA, they're not going to push anybody off the MLB roster.  wRC+ 130 in AAA is probably going to translate as league average in MLB.

Guys like Jenkins and Kaelyn Culpepper need a couple hundred plate appearances with quality production as a "prove it" as far as I'm concerned.

Gonzalez has been too slow to really play OF, though he's supposedly got a strong arm, and his ceiling is probably pretty low for the Twins, especially, given Target Field's tall right field wall.

It wouldn't be a TD post without at least some criticism of Wallner, though he hasn't been playing well. But, it's April 17th. If the Twins are going to demote him, just trade him to a team who has more belief in Wallner's game.

[Linus]

As others have noted, none of them are doing enough at AAA to worry about it. And it’s a different question for each one. GG is really going to have to hit as he’s basically a DH. KC on the other hand, if he plays well at short, doesn’t have to hit nearly as well to make it. 

[Trov]

6 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

If Outman is sent down/out, his call-up replacement doesn't necessarily have to just assume his role.  Especially with Kreidler around to offer cover in CF in a pinch (which has to be the only thing keeping Outman on the roster at this point), roles could be reshuffled in a way that results in the callup sharing time with Martin, Larnach spending more time at DH (or RF if Wallner needs his playing time scaled back), and Bell can play more at 1B.  Clemens is the one whose playing time takes a hit.

We can deal with what to do when Lewis is healthy when he's healthy.  Are they still thinking he'll be back early next week?  I haven't read or heard anything good or bad

I agree if someone comes up for Outman he would not have to assume his roll, but outside of Roden it is not likely they would call someone up to be a bench guy, again outside of injury.  Meaning that as you pointed out Wallner would have to step back to be the bench guy more.  I would agree, if Clemons gets booted, Bell could play 1B more and have someone like Gonzales DH more, or slot Wallner/Larnach there more.  That is another route than what I talked about. 

[Trov]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Step 1, git gud. Emma was below average in AAA until his 2HR game. If guys aren't raking in AAA, they're not going to push anybody off the MLB roster.  wRC+ 130 in AAA is probably going to translate as league average in MLB.

Guys like Jenkins and Kaelyn Culpepper need a couple hundred plate appearances with quality production as a "prove it" as far as I'm concerned.

Gonzalez has been too slow to really play OF, though he's supposedly got a strong arm, and his ceiling is probably pretty low for the Twins, especially, given Target Field's tall right field wall.

It wouldn't be a TD post without at least some criticism of Wallner, though he hasn't been playing well. But, it's April 17th. If the Twins are going to demote him, just trade him to a team who has more belief in Wallner's game.

My post was not about being an attack on Waller, just pointing out his current situation as he is struggling.  My post also is premised on the AAA pushing the MLB players, just as you pointed out.  They are not going to call any of them up most likely unless they are pushing the issue, or injuries.  My question was what would need to happen to get them up, and of course they would need to push the hand of the MLB club.  I also was not advocating for demoting Wallner, I was pointing out, he would be an option for that without losing, but Larnach would be going away most likely if you wanted to send him down.  Wallner can be optioned without passing waivers.  

[nicksaviking]

Is ten games a large enough sample size to trade Tristan Gray for a young top of the rotation pitcher? This is clearly the new Gray and a good GM should be able to sell the rest of the league on that.  He still has five years of team control; Paul Skenes only has three!

[Trov]

We are one month into the season.  Brooks Lee has been hitting better, but still not a good defender at SS, most likely needs to get moved to either 2nd or 3rd long term.  Culpepper down in AAA is holding his own, but not crushing.  However, if he is a better defender than Lee.  With Keaschall struggling hitting, and having options I could see maybe sending him down for Culpepper and shifting Lee over to 2nd if Keaschall does not improve soon. 

In terms of OF, Wallner continues to struggle this year.  He is negative value right now.  He has struggled like this in past and bounced back, but he is not doing anything right now. Meanwhile, E-Rod is crushing in AAA. I could see Wallner getting sent down as he still has an option for E-Rod if this continues. 

[Riverbrian]

I think the promotion of Jenkins or Culpepper is unlikely due to not being on the 40 man roster. They would have to explode beyond what the players on the actual 40 man roster are doing to get a call up. Adding them to the 40 man would start their clocks those are two players where years of service will probably matter. So they will have to blow the doors off the place to by worthy of starting their clocks. 

Fedko who isn't on the 40 man roster is a guy who intrigues me. Speed and Power combo who can play a little infield has the highest slugging on the team. Better than Erod. His OBP is too low right now and his strikeout rate is on the high side but when he squares it... he squares it. At age 26 they probably are not worried about service time so Fedko should be a consideration as well.   

Considering those on the 40 man roster. 

OF - Erod seems to be at the front of line right now. High OBP... High Slug. High exit velocity. It has to be tempting to call him up. I would... I'd give him Outman's roster spot. They are not utilizing Outman anyway and we do not need a pinch running, defensive replacement specialist taking up 26 man roster space. 

Roden is hurt and won't be available for a month or so. I assume he'd be high up the list of considerations otherwise. 

Gonzalez is trying to pick up some first base with 6 games played at the position and he probably needs some additional time playing 1B. Plus G Gon right now seems to be all or nothing power. He isn't striking out and he isn't drawing walks but his OPS is a low .688 despite hitting a home run every 15 AB's. Not walking, Also not striking out a lot and low BA suggests that he is swinging at pitches that he shouldn't but punishing some of those that he should. A little 1B work and some plate discipline and he joins the conversation. 

IF - Yikes... Kriedler is probably the guy who comes up with an injury anywhere on the IF. Arcia is probably number two and he will take a 40 man roster deduction for his addition. If Culpepper gets the call it will be out of desperation. Otherwise it's Kreidler. Lewis, Lee, Keashcall and Gray have basically nothing to worry about apart from injury. They can hit like crap for an extended period and keep their jobs. Our IF depth is really really bad. 

C - I assume it's Jackson if an injury occurs. Catching and IF depth. Uff Da is how we say it in these parts. 

  

[Riverbrian]

The Twins could right now. Mix in Erod, Martin, Buxton, Larnach, Bell and Jeffers as the primary RF, CF, LF, DH and 1B. 

Wallner and Caratini could decently mix in at RF, DH, 1B and C without excessive bench time for anyone. 

Clemens and Gray. Could mix in at 2B, 3B and SS. Lewis needs somebody mixing in at 3B and honestly... so does Keaschall right now.  

[Mike Sixel]

The twins don't generally promote guys unless there is an injury.. Do they? At least on the hitting side. 

They'll likely keep anyone down they can, to control their contracts longer. 

[Danchat]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The twins don't generally promote guys unless there is an injury.. Do they? At least on the hitting side. 

They'll likely keep anyone down they can, to control their contracts longer. 

I took a look back to last year, Keaschall was first called up for Gasper's spot (who was optioned). Notably they had put Wallner on the IL the previous day in exchange for activating Bride.

[bean5302]

If fans are clamoring for a AAA player, the Twins are going to have to believe that AAA player doesn't have to work on their hitting to be successful at the MLB level or they're good enough at the plate with good defense in a position which is performing poorly at the MLB level.

AAA
C - Jackson wRC+ 44
1B - Wagaman wRC+ 46, DFA'd, claimed by Mets
1B - Sabato wRC+ 82, non-40 man
2B - Arcia wRC+ 94, non-40 man
SS - Culpepper wRC+ 87, non-40 man
3B - Schobel wRC+ 71, non-40 man
LF - Gonzalez wRC+ 71, non-40 man
LF - Fedko wRC+ 107, non-40 man
CF - Jenkins wRC+ 86, non-40 man
RF - Roden wRC+ 139, on IL with torn shoulder
RF -Rodriguez wRC+ 145

Basically, the only two players hitting well enough to suggest they might be able to hold their own or better in MLB are Roden and Rodriguez. Roden is hurt. Rodriguez is probably on the short list to replace Wallner. 

I'm not sure Keaschall isn't on the short list for a demotion, but there's nobody worthy of a roster spot to take his place sooooooo