Dodgers Come Calling on Twins’ Dynamic Duo as Trade Rumors Pick Up

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Totally agree that FV and actual scouting reports/projections are far more important than some random ranking number.

I wouldn't accept that for any of them. I think Duran and Jax should return an equal amount as they're equally dominant late inning relievers. Ryan should return a package worth between the Crochet deal and the Soto deal. Duran and Jax should return a 55 plus. Chapman has returned Torres and Ragans in separate deals while on an expiring deal. Ragans wasn't as highly thought of at that time as he is now, but was already in the bigs. With the extra control they should return an elite type prospect (whatever FV grade you want to call that) plus for the extra control. Two 55s would be awfully tempting if they're both in AA or above.

Putting this in before Jax pitches the 9th. I don’t want to be reactive but I think it might be the time to deal him. His age is a factor that might negate the two additional years. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Putting this in before Jax pitches the 9th. I don’t want to be reactive but I think it might be the time to deal him. His age is a factor that might negate the two additional years. 

That inning sure didn't help his value or disprove @LA VIkes Fan's point.

[FLYBOY1979]

After what I just saw, sorry Dodgers.

[thelanges5]

Do the Dodgers still want him?

[LA Vikes Fan]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That inning sure didn't help his value or disprove @LA VIkes Fan's point.

Hey, one appearance does not a point prove or disprove. You were right to call me out on my statistical error.

Really Sucks that we lost today. We might have been able to get some momentum from a road series win against the Dodgers. Instead, yet another missed opportunity gut punch. This season is looking more and more like a slow descent into irrelevance every day. I hate the idea of trading Ryan (in particular), Duran, or Jax, but I see the logic. This lineup just isn't good enough and it's hard to see where the help could be coming from other than continuing the recent improvement from Lewis. Wallner and Larnach seem lost, Lee is decidedly mediocre at the plate, Castro is fading just like last year, and France is what he is and that ain't much. Buxton can only carry us so often. We literally have 1, maaaaybe 2 guys who should hit in the top 5 on a contending team (Buxton and maybe Lewis, who for some unknown reason is hitting 8th behind such luminaries as Wallner and France), a #6 and #7 hitter in Correa and Jeffers, and a bunch of guys who should hit in the bottom third of the order. Hard to contend with that. Add in a rotation that seems to have a least 2 out at all times and it's hard to get excited about the future of this season. 

[jorgenswest]

Jax is a little more three years old than Duran. I am not sure he will maintain his performance next year or the year following. There have been some good arguments about Duran losing 1 mph in average fastball velocity compared to 2023. Is that a decline and does it suggest further decline? I am not so sure. The stuff+ on his fastball is down a bit but the location+ is up a tick. He throws that fastball less than 2023 but the runs above average per 100 is actually better compared to 2023. Is it possible he has dialed it down a little and as a result it is more effective?

At 29 Tyler Duffey had a 1.88 ERA in the COVID shortened season. In 2021 at age 30 he was still effective with an ERA that was 3.20 on July 27 and ending the season at 3.18. He was certainly discussed in trade talks after being a very reliable reliever over the previous 3 seasons with an ERA of 2.69. His age by age season results track closely with Jax. Duffey dropped considerably at age 31 and was unusable at 32. They missed that window to sell high. Someone today told me hindsight is 20/20 and they are absolutely correct. Since it is 20/20 there might be something to learn from looking back. They missed the window to trade Duffey. Could this be the window for Jax?

I have shifted on Jax after a much appreciated back and forth with @Mike Sixel, @TheLeviathan and @chpettit19. We need a good return but don’t need to blown away here. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Jax is a little more three years old than Duran. I am not sure he will maintain his performance next year or the year following. There have been some good arguments about Duran losing 1 mph in average fastball velocity compared to 2023. Is that a decline and does it suggest further decline? I am not so sure. The stuff+ on his fastball is down a bit but the location+ is up a tick. He throws that fastball less than 2023 but the runs above average per 100 is actually better compared to 2023. Is it possible he has dialed it down a little and as a result it is more effective?

At 29 Tyler Duffey had a 1.88 ERA in the COVID shortened season. In 2021 at age 30 he was still effective with an ERA that was 3.20 on July 27 and ending the season at 3.18. He was certainly discussed in trade talks after being a very reliable reliever over the previous 3 seasons with an ERA of 2.69. His age by age season results track closely with Jax. Duffey dropped considerably at age 31 and was unusable at 32. They missed that window to sell high. Someone today told me hindsight is 20/20 and they are absolutely correct. Since it is 20/20 there might be something to learn from looking back. They missed the window to trade Duffey. Could this be the window for Jax?

I have shifted on Jax after a much appreciated back and forth with @Mike Sixel, @TheLeviathan and @chpettit19. We need a good return but don’t need to blown away here. 

I'd like to be blown away! I'm not sure what Jax is worth. Less than Duran I'd guess. I was just perusing the prospect lists on Fangraphs again....and I just don't know....but the Mets and Phillies and Cubs prospects intrigue me. I have little interest in the Yankees or Houston (on a quick skim) prospects. I doubt we deal with Detroit. 

If I'm prioritizing things, I want SP in AA or AAA, catchers at almost any level, and I guess CF?  Mostly I want to gamble on upside, not floor. I'm not interested in high floor, low ceiling guys.

I have many thoughts on the Twins' prospects and their positions and levels, but I need a break from posting. Have a great night everyone.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

50 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Jax is a little more three years old than Duran. I am not sure he will maintain his performance next year or the year following.

Gentleman’s bet with you— I say that Jax does maintain this level of performance over the next two years. 

I like the setup with Jax in the 8th and Duran in the 9th. It takes me back to a time before StatCast, when teams set up their bullpens by what felt right, and it is in my opinion the best thing the Twins have going for them this year. (Well, 2nd to Buxton’s great year.)

It would be a mistake to break up the Jax/Duran combo voluntarily. As good as they are pitching for the Twins, no team is going to break the bank for either of them in a trade negotiation. 

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

It would be a mistake to break up the Jax/Duran combo voluntarily. As good as they are pitching for the Twins, no team is going to break the bank for either of them in a trade negotiation. 

We don't want to break up the Duran/Jax combo in order to reach 81 wins? No team wants them? I'm confused. What is breaking the bank. 

There must be at least one team that believes that they are one or two players away from winning a World Series. It is possible that team, whoever it is, will go for it.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Jax is a little more three years old than Duran. I am not sure he will maintain his performance next year or the year following. There have been some good arguments about Duran losing 1 mph in average fastball velocity compared to 2023. Is that a decline and does it suggest further decline? I am not so sure. The stuff+ on his fastball is down a bit but the location+ is up a tick. He throws that fastball less than 2023 but the runs above average per 100 is actually better compared to 2023. Is it possible he has dialed it down a little and as a result it is more effective?

At 29 Tyler Duffey had a 1.88 ERA in the COVID shortened season. In 2021 at age 30 he was still effective with an ERA that was 3.20 on July 27 and ending the season at 3.18. He was certainly discussed in trade talks after being a very reliable reliever over the previous 3 seasons with an ERA of 2.69. His age by age season results track closely with Jax. Duffey dropped considerably at age 31 and was unusable at 32. They missed that window to sell high. Someone today told me hindsight is 20/20 and they are absolutely correct. Since it is 20/20 there might be something to learn from looking back. They missed the window to trade Duffey. Could this be the window for Jax?

I have shifted on Jax after a much appreciated back and forth with @Mike Sixel, @TheLeviathan and @chpettit19. We need a good return but don’t need to blown away here. 

[TheLeviathan]

You know....this thread has been one of the best we've had in Twins Daily in a long time.  People are bringing good arguments, with a healthy respect for each other, and some bad ass baseball conversations.

Appreciate everyone participating, this has been a great read!