What do the Twins have in Brooks Lee?

[stringer bell]

Brooks Lee was drafted by the Twins in 2022 as the eighth pick in the first round of the MLB draft. Most observers thought the Twins did well to get a polished college hitter with their pick. He was thought to be a very good hitter who was a polished defender. Add in that Lee is a switch hitter capable of playing shortstop and it appeared that the Twins hit a home run with their pick. 

Lee advanced quickly despite injuries and made his debut last year at age 23. After a good first week in the majors, Brooks struggled with the rest of the team in the last quarter of the season, finishing with a .221 average and .585 OPS. Twins watchers suggested that his back injury and first season that ran past Labor Day may have sapped his strength.

Maybe so, but the numbers didn't show a picture of an elite hitter or fielder. Most of the metrics show an average-ish hitter with poor leg speed and not much athleticism. 2025 opened with Lee on the IL again to start the season. He's been on the team since he's been activated and he's started almost every day, playing double digit games at second, short and third. In conjunction with Willi Castro, Lee gives the team great versatility and both guys are also switch hitters. Lee's batting average and OPS are improved from last year, but not dramatically so. His OPS+ is a very pedestrian 76, he's hit four homers and has 18 RBI. However, his manager has used him frequently in the middle of the lineup, hitting third eight times and fourth nine times in the 39 games he has started. His usage seems to indicate faith that he will produce good numbers.

Given the struggles of three other infielders who have been on the team--Miranda, Julien and Royce Lewis--it seems that Lee will continue to be in the lineup almost every day for the foreseeable future. What I am wondering is what his future will be in the next few years. Will he assume a position and be a regular? Will he stay on the team as a three-position infielder getting plenty of at-bats or will others pass him by where he may or may not play significant time for the Twins. 

My thoughts are that Lee is better than his numbers, but there's no evidence yet that he is any more than an average player. He is quite polished and makes up for much of his lack of speed and arm strength on defense, enough so that he is a capable defender, particularly at third base. Still, he has to hit better than he's shown or he'll be a wasted first round pick. I can envision Lee assuming Willi Castro's role as a starter at multiple positions. Maybe he can become an everyday starter at second or third, but there isn't evidence that he will ever hit enough to claim a position for himself. 

[Linus]

I think you have summarized the situation nicely. He has to hit better to be a player you will count on for the long haul.  If not he is a bench player which would not be a good outcome for an 8th overall pick  He still has time to make that jump in his hitting so fingers crossed. 

[Vanimal46]

I may be misremembering, but wasn’t Lee one of those high floor kind of draft prospects? It kind of feels like the Nick Gordon pick at 5 overall. Projected average tools across the board, but no trait that’s projected to be great. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I may be misremembering, but wasn’t Lee one of those high floor kind of draft prospects? It kind of feels like the Nick Gordon pick at 5 overall. Projected average tools across the board, but no trait that’s projected to be great. 

You are correct. Scouting reports basically said he wouldn’t stick at SS but could be good at third. Good contact hitter but would need to develop power.  So the scouts were right on the money this time. 

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

You are correct. Scouting reports basically said he wouldn’t stick at SS but could be good at third. Good contact hitter but would need to develop power.  So the scouts were right on the money this time. 

In theory that sounds good to be average across the board, then maybe they develop one trait to be great. That would be a valuable ball player. However, I’m guessing they end up like Nick Gordon more often than a valuable MLB player. 

[Eris]

41 minutes ago, Linus said:

You are correct. Scouting reports basically said he wouldn’t stick at SS but could be good at third. Good contact hitter but would need to develop power.  So the scouts were right on the money this time.

Lee was considered the best college hitter in the draft and dropped In the draft because of his injury history (back) in college. 

[stringer bell]

Some differences between Nick Gordon and Brooks Lee--first of all, Lee was a college guy and projections for his skills were much further along and he came into the organization as much more of a finished product than Gordon. Secondly, Lee was viewed to have a superior hit tool, one of the best in the draft.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

In theory that sounds good to be average across the board, then maybe they develop one trait to be great. That would be a valuable ball player. However, I’m guessing they end up like Nick Gordon more often than a valuable MLB player. 

Nick Gordon wasn't average across the board or really at any one area so I'm not sure he's the best comp. His best tool was I guess speed but that's not a carrying tool. Pop for his size but still below average. 

Lee's carrying tool right now is his defense and versatility, in the field and switch hitting. His prospect profile was that the bat would be the main tool so this is a pretty good development path. If the hit tool comes around like everyone expects he becomes a very, very valuable asset. He's currently just a solid playable option which isn't nothing.  A step forward with the bat is a force multiplier. 

It's a much better combination than Arraez, who we have discussed endlessly, as a roster fit challenge. If the carrying tool is contact only bat, something else has to play to be a valuable asset. 

[Linus]

Stringer - I appreciate these topics that you post as they always get me thinking. 
Along the same lines, I would be interested in getting people’s thoughts on what do we have with Larnach. He’s hitting better of late but overall numbers are decent. Not a butcher in the field but certainly not great. Is he part of the future?

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

Stringer - I appreciate these topics that you post as they always get me thinking. 
Along the same lines, I would be interested in getting people’s thoughts on what do we have with Larnach. He’s hitting better of late but overall numbers are decent. Not a butcher in the field but certainly not great. Is he part of the future?

Concur. These are fun discussions. With Larnach, he’s alright, but leaves more to be desired at the corner OF spot. I’m an Emma Rodriguez believer and think he can provide more upside than a 115 OPS+. So I’m looking at trade opportunities as early as July, but most likely in the offseason. 

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Concur. These are fun discussions. With Larnach, he’s alright, but leaves more to be desired at the corner OF spot. I’m an Emma Rodriguez believer and think he can provide more upside than a 115 OPS+. So I’m looking at trade opportunities as early as July, but most likely in the offseason. 

Emma injured again.....

As for the topic, I think he'll be a 2-3 war player who is versatile as a fielder. That valuable. Not a star, but above average

[stringer bell]

43 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Concur. These are fun discussions. With Larnach, he’s alright, but leaves more to be desired at the corner OF spot. I’m an Emma Rodriguez believer and think he can provide more upside than a 115 OPS+. So I’m looking at trade opportunities as early as July, but most likely in the offseason. 

I've liked Larnach since he made his way to the majors. His defense is okay but despite hitting a homer off a lefty last night, he's got pretty severe platoon splits. 

I've thought with Emma and Jenkins on the rise that one or both of Trevor and Wallner would be moved, but both young guys have been slowed by injury again. Larnach should be getting consistent PAs for someone for the next few years and if the Twins can't count on Rodriguez or Jenkins, he might be getting them with the Twins. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Or he could just play the Athletics more often,  a .870 OPS for the month of June in an extremely small sample size hehe.  Personally I think he is coming along and will be a solid hitter especially if he can lay off the high pitch more.  My guess is the hit tool continues to improve,  he is an extremely hard worker and intelligent and 24 years old.  I would be surprised if he ends with a batting average of .260 to .280 in most years with developing power.   

[DocBauer]

I really like Lee's defense, though I think he might be best at 3B by a fraction over 2B. I think he's fine as a backup SS. He's no Correa, but then again, not many are. Offensively, I don't think he's a finished product yet and he's going to take a couple steps forward still. That's part of the reason I've repeatedly commented I want him playing daily as much as possible to grow as a hitter.

His floor? Pretty much what he is now, maybe a tiny bit better, as a good glove, useful for not great bat who can have a long and solid career as a 3 spot backup. (Might he add 1B at some point?)

What do I think he'll become? I see him as a consistent .270-.280 hitter with an OB% in the .320's with about 50 XBH a year, probably mid teens HR and 30+ Dbls. With his solid glove, that's a really solid, dependable player who makes money, contributes to your lineup and your defense, and is worth a couple WAR per season. Probably never makes an All Star team, but there could be that special year where he slips in. I'm not convinced in 20 HR power at this point, or that he's going to be patient enough as a hitter for better than this.

His ceiling? Well, more HR power...or possibly 40+ Dbls power...and more patience and better selction, we could have a .280-.290 hitter with a .350 OB%. That's probably a 2 or 3 time All Star.