Should Fans have excitement for Aaron Sabato?

[Trov]

I am sure most will see the question and say loudly NO!  However, I only ask because I read so many fans saying lets give McCusker a chance.  Many are upset he is getting little run on his call up. Yes, McCusker has been crushing at AAA this season, but last year at AA in his age 26 season he slashed .281/.357/.489 with a HR every 28 plate appearances and a K-rate around 30%.  Sabato at his age 26 season in AA so far this year is slashing .293/.398/.478 with a HR every 27 plate appearances and a K-rate around 30%. 

So I ask again, should we have some excitement for these numbers of Sabato?  If he comes up to AAA, a well known hitter league, and put up similar numbers still to McCusker do we change our toon on him?  Or because he was drafted high and never did well enough to warrant a call up soured us, but when McCusker the undrafted guy that moved up to AAA and doing well there mean we believe he has a shot? 

Personally, I say no we should not be, maybe if he moves up to AAA and crushes we can give him a shot at 1B, but my main point is we are upset McCusker is not getting more time but someone like Sabato in similar situation we would never want to see given a shot. 

[nicksaviking]

While I don't believe in McCusker, comparing him to Sabato by using McCusker's 2024 numbers instead of his 2025 numbers, which include an OPS over 1.000, seems like cherry picking.

[bean5302]

Sabato was left off the roster and exposed to rule 5 and he's still in AA. The former first round pick's batting line features a .352 BABIP when his career number is .272, and it's not like Sabato is hitting for power.

It does not make sense to compare McCusker to Sabato for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was Sabato was a supposedly polished first round pick who's had years of the best coaching and instruction in the world while McCusker was undrafted and has needed to rely upon coaches equipped with far fewer capabilities.

It shows in the way they've progressed. Sabato has largely stalled out while McCusker has continued to get better and grow as he's moved up levels. It's not like McCusker is any kind of guaranteed MLB caliber player, but he's got a lot higher chance of being valuable than Sabato.

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, Trov said:

Sabato at his age 26 season in AA so far this year is slashing .293/.398/.478 with a HR every 27 plate appearances and a K-rate around 30%. 

That's roughly equivalent to .193/.298/.378 in MLB.

[dxpavelka]

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's roughly equivalent to .193/.298/.378 in MLB.

So you're telling me that to expect a guy to hit .300 in the big leagues he's gotta hit .400 in AA?  

[Yoke]

I wouldn’t say excitement, but maybe some hope?

 

He has been rough for where he was drafted and why he was drafted, but hopefully he has figured something out and can become a usable player for the Twins. I wouldn’t be mad if they moved him up a level to see if this is real or a mirage.

[Trov]

16 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

While I don't believe in McCusker, comparing him to Sabato by using McCusker's 2024 numbers instead of his 2025 numbers, which include an OPS over 1.000, seems like cherry picking.

I am comparing their same age season at same level.  I pointed out that McCusker was hitting better at AAA this year than he did last year, but the league the Saints are in are known to be a hitters league. What I was pointing out is that fans have been big on a guy at age 27 finally hitting like crazy, some were talking about him last year I recall, but Sabato is doing slightly better than what McCusker did last year same age.  Of course, Sabato would have to hit at AAA too.  

I also wanted to point what some comments brought up, Sabato was a first round pick that might finally be doing okay at age 26 and we say he is not MLB worthy, but he is doing what McCusker did same age same level.  

[Trov]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Sabato was left off the roster and exposed to rule 5 and he's still in AA. The former first round pick's batting line features a .352 BABIP when his career number is .272, and it's not like Sabato is hitting for power.

It does not make sense to compare McCusker to Sabato for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was Sabato was a supposedly polished first round pick who's had years of the best coaching and instruction in the world while McCusker was undrafted and has needed to rely upon coaches equipped with far fewer capabilities.

It shows in the way they've progressed. Sabato has largely stalled out while McCusker has continued to get better and grow as he's moved up levels. It's not like McCusker is any kind of guaranteed MLB caliber player, but he's got a lot higher chance of being valuable than Sabato.

I would argue that McCusker has not continued to grow, but has an amazing SSS in AAA that fans for some reason think will be more than that.  That is the point I am trying to make.  I am not big on either.  I do not expect either do much if anything at MLB level.  I pointing out that because McCusker was undrafted took 2 years in independent ball to hit, then took 2 years in our minors to have a hot 38 games. 

I am trying to bring this to the attention that we give more praise to a guy who as you point out seems to be growing, where a guy like Sabato failed right away and slowly grew but his expectations were that they would be better out the gate.  Both had similar numbers at similar level at similar age, but the path both got there are different so we view them different.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

So you're telling me that to expect a guy to hit .300 in the big leagues he's gotta hit .400 in AA?  

Yes. Do you know how hard it is to hit .300 in the majors right now? There are only 14 qualified players with an average > .300.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I am comparing their same age season at same level.  I pointed out that McCusker was hitting better at AAA this year than he did last year, but the league the Saints are in are known to be a hitters league. What I was pointing out is that fans have been big on a guy at age 27 finally hitting like crazy, some were talking about him last year I recall, but Sabato is doing slightly better than what McCusker did last year same age.  Of course, Sabato would have to hit at AAA too.  

I also wanted to point what some comments brought up, Sabato was a first round pick that might finally be doing okay at age 26 and we say he is not MLB worthy, but he is doing what McCusker did same age same level.  

Why? They are both too old to be considered meaningful prospects. 

Like I said, I don't believe in McCusker, but there is absolutely zero reason to use his prior stats to compare him to Sabato. The ONLY reason anyone is/was interested in seeing him called up is because of what he was doing right now this year. Sabato was a bad and irrelevant comp, you are using future expectations instead of concrete data. For all you or any of us know, Sabato will be in this same situation with the Reds next year and end up crushing at the MLB level. If you want to sell your argument, you need to find other guys like McCusker who crushed AAA at an advanced age, finally got a MLB call up and flamed out. There are dozens of those.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

I would argue that McCusker has not continued to grow, but has an amazing SSS in AAA

Lower K rate in AAA than Low A. It's hard not to see progress there overall or look at how his results have changed as he's moved up the ladder. He's definitely gotten better, and we're dealing with a sample size over the course of 1,000 plate appearances.

The bar was DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. 1.6% BB, 33.3% K. The guy at .115/.143/.164 wRC+ -20. When Keirsey is getting regular playing time, I think it's reasonable to want him on the bench or in AAA vs. McCusker, but I also would have liked to see McCusker stay in AAA a little longer.

[jorgenswest]

Why not be excited? The realistic easy take for most minor leaguers is that they won’t make it. For me it is part of the fun to catch glimpses of their strengths and be optimistic that they might just beat the odds and become a major leaguer. This is the first stretch that Sabato has given us to be optimistic. Go ahead and be excited.

[RpR]

Excited no, hopeful, probably.

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Yes. Do you know how hard it is to hit .300 in the majors right now? There are only 14 qualified players with an average > .300.

Yes, I understand that.  But, by the same token, there are seven guys hitting .300 in AA and the highest average in AA was .331.  So by your logic, in a few years, the highest average in the majors will be .231.  I'm not buying it.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Yes, I understand that.  But, by the same token, there are seven guys hitting .300 in AA and the highest average in AA was .331.  So by your logic, in a few years, the highest average in the majors will be .231.  I'm not buying it.  

Those players will need to improve at the plate to hit .300 in MLB. If they were already good enough to hit .300 in MLB, they wouldn't still be in Double-A. If a 22-year old player hits .330 in Double-A then he has a chance to improve enough to hit .300 in MLB. If a 26-year old player (like Sabato) hits .290 in Double-A, then he's probably not good enough to hit .300 in MLB. The majority of players max out their talent ages 26-28. After that, declining athleticism starts chipping away at performance.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Those players will need to improve at the plate to hit .300 in MLB. If they were already good enough to hit .300 in MLB, they wouldn't still be in Double-A. If a 22-year old player hits .330 in Double-A then he has a chance to improve enough to hit .300 in MLB. If a 26-year old player (like Sabato) hits .290 in Double-A, then he's probably not good enough to hit .300 in MLB. The majority of players max out their talent ages 26-28. After that, declining athleticism starts chipping away at performance.

Not really shocking that a player in AA ball might not be good enough to hit .300 in the big leagues when 95% of the players IN THE BIG LEAGUES are not good enough to hit .300

What I'm questioning is your statement that if a guy's hitting .293 in AA he'd likely hit .193 in the big leagues.  I don't see it.

[dogman]

Then there is Miranda who hit 350 at St.Paul...Wonder whats with him nowdays.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Not really shocking that a player in AA ball might not be good enough to hit .300 in the big leagues when 95% of the players IN THE BIG LEAGUES are not good enough to hit .300

What I'm questioning is your statement that if a guy's hitting .293 in AA he'd likely hit .193 in the big leagues.  I don't see it.

He's not going to hit better in MLB. He's going to walk less often, strike out more often and lose hits to better defenses. Maybe he hits .220 with fewer extra base hits. A drop in OPS of 200 is expected, which is equivalent to a drop in batting average of 100 points.

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's not going to hit better in MLB. He's going to walk less often, strike out more often and lose hits to better defenses. Maybe he hits .220 with fewer extra base hits. A drop in OPS of 200 is expected, which is equivalent to a drop in batting average of 100 points.

Still not buying the expected drop of 200 OPS from AA to the big leagues.  I did a random comparison of 26 players.  Big names and no names alike.  Ranging from guys like Aaron Judge & Freddie Freeman to guys like Alex Call & Taylor Walls.  Five of 26 had a 200 point OPS drop.  Max Kepler & Carlos Correa were interestingly enough in that group.  Ten went UP from AA.  The average was a 48 point drop.  A FAR cry from your expected 200 point OPS drop.  Even Royce Lewis went up 116 points.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Still not buying the expected drop of 200 OPS from AA to the big leagues.  I did a random comparison of 26 players.  Big names and no names alike.  Ranging from guys like Aaron Judge & Freddie Freeman to guys like Alex Call & Taylor Walls.  Five of 26 had a 200 point OPS drop.  Max Kepler & Carlos Correa were interestingly enough in that group.  Ten went UP from AA.  The average was a 48 point drop.  A FAR cry from your expected 200 point OPS drop.  Even Royce Lewis went up 116 points.  

How many of those players were 26 or older? Young players can keep improving at the MLB level.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

How many of those players were 26 or older? Young players can keep improving at the MLB level.

Is there an age limit?

 

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Is there an age limit?

Players generally peak ages 26-28.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Players generally peak ages 26-28.

I'm not disagreeing with anything you are saying.  Except your stance that there is an "expected" drop from AA to the big leagues of a hundred points of batting average and 200 points of OPS.  The numbers don't say that.

[Trov]

On 5/27/2025 at 3:38 PM, nicksaviking said:

While I don't believe in McCusker, comparing him to Sabato by using McCusker's 2024 numbers instead of his 2025 numbers, which include an OPS over 1.000, seems like cherry picking.

Sabato now has OPS over 1.000 at AAA and McCusker is down to .920 because of his terrible return to AAA after his couple of at bats at MLB level. Can we now compare how Sabato is doing to McCusker?  It is a very SSS for Sabato but I think my point from a month ago still holds, Sabato is doing good things at age 26 in the minors, same as McCusker when fans were excited for him.  The main difference between the two is one was drafted first round one was not drafted at all. I do not expect big things out of either, but Sabato actually may have a chance to help out at 1B later this year if we dump France, or next year at least.