Ty France Lets the Game Come to Him in Big Moments, with Stellar Results

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Memorial Day weekend turned out very well for the Twins. They couldn't quite eke out a third win and complete a sweep of the division-rival Royals, but their back-to-back walkoff victories on Friday night and Saturday afternoon showed their mettle, their well-roundedness, and their slight but clear superiority to the visitors from Kansas City. At the heart of it all was Ty France, clutch hitter extraordinaire.

France's two-run home run to win Friday night's game was arguably the high point of a Twins hot streak that has wholly inverted the narrative of their season. France didn't rest on the laurels that came with that homer for even a day, though. On Saturday, he had a crucial two-run, opposite-field single to facilitate an eventual comeback win, and on Sunday, he started the scoring by flipping a single into right-center field to score Ryan Jeffers in the first inning.

Last fall, I documented the fact that hitters swing faster in the postseason. Big crowds and big situations will speed up the reflexes and the muscles. France knows how to avail himself of that natural speed boost: keep things slow.

"As far as the big moments and the adrenaline kicking in, I was fortunate enough to play in the playoffs in [2022], and it's a real thing," he said Sunday. "The more you can slow your heart rate down in those moments, just be under control—I'm at a point in my career now where I've been in those situations a good bit, and I'm able to control my emotions."

France emphasized the importance of staying under control, and resisting the temptation to get "carried away" when the hum of the game rises to more of a roar. He's a subject matter expert, in this regard. For his career, France is a .243/.316/.391 hitter with the bases empty. Put a runner in scoring position, and those numbers leap to .310/.377/.450. In low-leverage situations, he's batted .255/.323/.400. Crank it up to high leverage, and he's at .290/.368/.434. It's against old-fashioned sabermetric orthodoxy to suggest that a hitter can be consistently clutch, but with well over 500 plate appearances in both of the samples producing such impressive numbers, France is right that he's been in that spot too many times to dismiss his success there as meaningless.

Over the decades, some wise voices have even questioned the nobility of being a clutch hitter. Way back in 1960, in his moving paean to Ted Williams after his final game in Fenway Park, author John Updike rebuked that archetype.

"Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter’s myth, he is a vulgarity," Updike wrote, "like a writer who writes only for money."

There's truth in that sentiment. If a hitter isn't giving their full concentration or best effort until there's a chance to cash in for some RBIs or the glory that comes with hits in the heat of the spotlight, they're not serving their team. But Updike had an ax to grind—or, more to the point, an infamously non-clutch hitter to defend. More importantly, he overlooked the reasonable hypothesis that some hitters might be well-suited to the way pitches prefer to do their business when the chips are down—and less so to the way they'll be attacked at other, lower-pressure moments.

"I think when I'm at my best, I'm covering that pitch away, hitting that fastball to the right side," France said, acknowledging that pitchers often feel more comfortable working in locations they perceive as less dangerous or vulnerable to power when the pressure rises.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli echoed that basic conception of the art of clutch hitting, at which the Twins seem to be excelling over this three-week run of torrid play.

"I think guys are going up there with a good plan, more than anything else," the skipper said. "We’re not trying to beat the world with one swing. Ty had a big homer for us, but most of the time we’re doing it with just hitting the ball hard, spraying the ball around the field, trying to hit line drives. But we’re taking pitches, we’re putting ourselves in good positions to hit. That’s really what it’s all about. It doesn’t mean you’re always gonna have success, but it’s the only way you can have success, to have at-bats like that."

None of this quite answers the question of how France came to hammer that game-winner Friday night, though. If he's focused on going the other way, which he's done so well, where did a pulled home run come from in that moment? It was, in truth, the confluence of having a good plan and the body going faster than it otherwise might.

"[Royals relief ace Lucas Erceg] throws a sinker at 98, and guy on first, one out, my thought process is, 'Ok, he's gonna try and bury me in with a sinker, get a double play ball,'" France said. "So for me, it was, 'Ok, I need to get on time for 98, get the foot down, ready to hit.' 0-0, he hung a slider, but because I was on time for the fastball, I was able to see it, react, gave me some room to work with out front, and I was able to pull a slider for a homer."

Sitting on a heater and getting a slider is, in general, a bad thing for a hitter. If that hitter is dedicated to the idea of taking that fastball to the opposite field, however, they have a chance to be early in a good way, rather than a bad one, when the breaking ball comes instead. The wrinkle—the big trick, here—is that the bat is going to be moving fast, no matter what. So the hitter has to be thinking clearly enough to stay in that mindset, to studiously focus on going the other way—to trust himself.

France's average bat speed this season is 70.6 miles per hour. On that first pitch from Erceg, it was 74.0 mph. His average attack angle (the vertical angle of movement, relative to the ground, of the barrel of the bat at contact) is 11°. On this swing, it was 21°, which tells us he was a bit early. His average attack direction (the horizontal angle of movement of that same portion of the bat at the contact point) is 6° toward the opposite field; it was 8° to the pull field on the fateful pitch Friday night. He typically tilts his bat 35° downward as he moves it through the hitting zone, on pitches in that vertical location range. Friday night's swing was at 32°. Expecting the fastball, thus, a flatter swing. On time for the fastball, thus, early. But, because he'd been trying to go to right field with it, early in a good way.

Clutch hitting isn't solved. France won't come through every time, as Baldelli noted. This remains a game of failure. As successes in pivotal moments pile up for France, though, it's hard not to both trust and admire the way he matches his skill set and his approach to situations—or even how situations simply compel pitchers to pitch right into his strengths.

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[SD happy]

France has been a huge addition for the Twins. He has had many clutch two out run scoring hits. And, his defense has been better than I expected. I’ve become a big fan. I’m glad the FO didn’t listen to many of us that said France wasn’t needed because a Julien/Miranda platoon would be a better choice.

[Linus]

I think it may be as simple as he makes contact more often than other players. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

36 minutes ago, SD happy said:

France has been a huge addition for the Twins. He has had many clutch two out run scoring hits. And, his defense has been better than I expected. I’ve become a big fan. I’m glad the FO didn’t listen to many of us that said France wasn’t needed because a Julien/Miranda platoon would be a better choice.

I’m glad the FO didn’t listen to me

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, SD happy said:

France has been a huge addition for the Twins. He has had many clutch two out run scoring hits. And, his defense has been better than I expected. I’ve become a big fan. I’m glad the FO didn’t listen to many of us that said France wasn’t needed because a Julien/Miranda platoon would be a better choice.

He's a 0.0 WAR first baseman. Julien and Miranda have been awful, but that doesn't mean Ty France has been especially good. It's been a really bad season for first basemen in MLB, which makes him look better in comparison, but he's been worth what they paid for him. He's hitting about exactly the same as Willi Castro. The trendline is heading down; 567 OPS in May. 

If France has some magical clutchness ability, can he turn it on when things aren't so clutch so he can help the team more? Far more likely the author is reading into the randomness of small sample sizes.

[Fatbat]

Amazing how maturity has made France’s game so much better. If there is an AllStar on the Twins so far, it’s him. Calm and cool and devastating to a pitcher’s plan.  I have always been a fan of small ball where guys can string together 5/6 hits in an inning and chase the starter or ambush a RP. It’s a mental game as much as physical. 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Amazing how maturity has made France’s game so much better. If there is an AllStar on the Twins so far, it’s him. Calm and cool and devastating to a pitcher’s plan.  I have always been a fan of small ball where guys can string together 5/6 hits in an inning and chase the starter or ambush a RP. It’s a mental game as much as physical. 

That's an interesting take on a player who had his peak 2020-2022. He's clearly worse at hitting now than he was then.

He's also clearly NOT an All-Star. Buxton is having an All-Star season. So is Joe Ryan. Bader, Lopez and Duran have had good seasons. Kody Clemens has been playing out of his mind. Ty France would be about 15th-20th on my ranking of Twins who should play in the All-Star game.

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Best "value-signing" this season and probably of the last decade at least.

Willi Castro. They're going to get 5 WAR from him over 3 seasons for $11M.

France isn't even the best "value" signing of the most recent offseason. Bader and Coulombe have both been better signings.

[NYCTK]

He should try letting the game come to him in some less pivotal at bats too. Then he might be a decent player. 

Or, maybe he's just a fine player and we needn't constantly praise the "approach" that results in a big hit. Sometimes it's just a mediocre player running into a ball and we can celebrate that in itself. 

[Patzky]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's an interesting take on a player who had his peak 2020-2022. He's clearly worse at hitting now than he was then.

 

He's also clearly NOT an All-Star. Buxton is having an All-Star season. So is Joe Ryan. Bader, Lopez and Duran have had good seasons. Kody Clemens has been playing out of his mind. Ty France would be about 15th-20th on my ranking of Twins who should play in the All-Star game.

Yet right now,  there is nobody on the Twins I'd rather see coming to bat with the chance to drive in runs with two outs.

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's an interesting take on a player who had his peak 2020-2022. He's clearly worse at hitting now than he was then.

He's also clearly NOT an All-Star. Buxton is having an All-Star season. So is Joe Ryan. Bader, Lopez and Duran have had good seasons. Kody Clemens has been playing out of his mind. Ty France would be about 15th-20th on my ranking of Twins who should play in the All-Star game.

Kody Clemens would be a really cool all star selection. I hate him as a player and have for 3 seasons now based on his previous stints and haven't been able to change my tune just yet. But I love those kinds of stories. Not a mediocre 1B that's already made an all star game. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

Yet right now,  there is nobody on the Twins I'd rather see coming to bat with the chance to drive in runs with two outs.

679 OPS with RISP, 2 outs. It's more damning of the other hitters that this is who you would choose.

I think it's more short memory than anything else. Kody Clemens has done more clutch damage this season. Jeffers, Bader, Buxton and Larnach have had their clutch moments, too.

[Doctor Gast]

"It's against old-fashioned sabermetric orthodoxy to suggest that a hitter can be consistently clutch, but ...."

IMO, it's like low-leverage & high-leverage RPing. It's being able to get up mentally & reach for something extra to meet the occasion. While some cave, others thrive. If a guy can hit clutch, I really don't care what he does with a casual AB. This orthodoxy is full of baloney. Guys like Reggie Jackson was OK during the regular season, but come around postseason, his bat would come alive.

[Linus]

I’m no SABR metric genius but the idea behind no such thing as “clutch” is based on research that shows clutch numbers being random from year to year and player to player. There probably are players that tighten up in those moments and others that  lock in better in those moments but I think the research shows that for the vast majority of players it’s just random. 

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’m no SABR metric genius but the idea behind no such thing as “clutch” is based on research that shows clutch numbers being random from year to year and player to player. There probably are players that tighten up in those moments and others that  lock in better in those moments but I think the research shows that for the vast majority of players it’s just random. 

There are some exceptions like Joe Mauer, but I don't think "clutch" hitters are better because they take it up a notch or something. They're probably better because they slow it down and play normal. They take "professional hitter" type of at bats rather than trying to hit a 5 run home run, feeling the energy. Kirk Gibson's famous HR off Eckersley was just Gibson fouling off pitches away and holding off on pitches well outside until Eckersley made a mistake leaving a ball over the middle on the 7th pitch or so of the at bat. Eckersley famously hadn't allowed a HR in two months finishing runner up in the Cy Young to our own Frank Viola so Eckersley wasn't a guy to make a lot of mistakes. If the batter can stay focused, and unstressed as possible, they'll potentially have an advantage over a pitcher feeling the moment and being distracted.

We saw that from Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa in the 2023 playoffs. It didn't always work, but Lewis and Correa were really the only hitters who made the Astros pitchers throw strikes as I recall. The rest of the lineup was taking tons of unprofessional, hectic at bats. Swinging away when they shouldn't have been, and it made it easy.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Best "value-signing" this season and probably of the last decade at least.

Santana was also a great value signing last year.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Mark Twain wrote: "There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." He was implying that statistics can be used in ways to convince folks of something that isn't correct. However many times in my life, I have found find Twain's quote to be a lie. 

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

"It's against old-fashioned sabermetric orthodoxy to suggest that a hitter can be consistently clutch, but ...."

IMO, it's like low-leverage & high-leverage RPing. It's being able to get up mentally & reach for something extra to meet the occasion. While some cave, others thrive. If a guy can hit clutch, I really don't care what he does with a casual AB. This orthodoxy is full of baloney. Guys like Reggie Jackson was OK during the regular season, but come around postseason, his bat would come alive.

If you normalize for the season, his postseason ops wasn't all that different than his regular season ops. He was a good hitter, both in the regular season and postseason. He was "clutch" in some notable Yankees series but for some reason forgot his clutch gene at home in some other series. 

[Fatbat]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's an interesting take on a player who had his peak 2020-2022. He's clearly worse at hitting now than he was then.

He's also clearly NOT an All-Star. Buxton is having an All-Star season. So is Joe Ryan. Bader, Lopez and Duran have had good seasons. Kody Clemens has been playing out of his mind. Ty France would be about 15th-20th on my ranking of Twins who should play in the All-Star game.

I do agree that Buck is having an AllStar season. Take notice tho,  France is leading the twins in hits and RBI’s and has played 10 more games than Buck while striking out 26 less times. (56-30)  France might be a regression candidate but if he plays the final 2/3 of the season as well as the start, he will have some crazy good season stats. 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I do agree that Buck is having an AllStar season. Take notice tho,  France is leading the twins in hits and RBI’s and has played 10 more games than Buck while striking out 26 less times. (56-30)  France might be a regression candidate but if he plays the final 2/3 of the season as well as the start, he will have some crazy good season stats. 

I guess I'm not that impressed with a player at a bat-first position hitting .250 with mediocre power and no walks. Ty France would be a plus contributor on offense if he was the catcher but not as a first baseman.

You can pretty much multiply his current stats by 3 to get a good estimate of season totals. That would give him 140 hits, 24 2B, 12 HR, 30 BB, 90 K. That seems adequate, not "crazy good".

One interesting thing I noticed - he has 8 HBP vs 10 BB. He is able to get on base by leaning into a pitch.

His production in May (579 OPS) has dipped from April (745 OPS). If he doesn't bounce back, he'll be replaced before the season is over.

[NYCTK]

11 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I do agree that Buck is having an AllStar season. Take notice tho,  France is leading the twins in hits and RBI’s and has played 10 more games than Buck while striking out 26 less times. (56-30)  France might be a regression candidate but if he plays the final 2/3 of the season as well as the start, he will have some crazy good season stats. 

A 1B healthy all season hitting 12 HR with 87 RBI and 60 R isn't exactly what anyone should think of as crazy good season stats. More like the base minimum. Which is fine, that's what he was hired to be. 

[Fatbat]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I guess I'm not that impressed with a player at a bat-first position hitting .250 with mediocre power and no walks. Ty France would be a plus contributor on offense if he was the catcher but not as a first baseman.

You can pretty much multiply his current stats by 3 to get a good estimate of season totals. That would give him 140 hits, 24 2B, 12 HR, 30 BB, 90 K. That seems adequate, not "crazy good".

One interesting thing I noticed - he has 8 HBP vs 10 BB. He is able to get on base by leaning into a pitch.

His production in May (579 OPS) has dipped from April (745 OPS). If he doesn't bounce back, he'll be replaced before the season is over.

All good points. His 579OPS is not going to keep him around. He did have a nice game last night. We should probably keep him around for now.