Astros 9, Twins 7: Twins Get to Blanco Early, Astros Chip Away and Pull Away in Extras

[jorgenswest]

58 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Career

Jax, 15 saves, 66 holds, 20 blown

Duran, 58 save, 27 holds, 7 blown.

Blown save or Blown hold are are the same IMO, the pitcher entered with a lead, the other team tied the game or went ahead. If you go though Jax's game log for his career he generally pitches great for 4 to 6 games and then blown one. Sometimes he goes a game or two longer, but that is how it has went.

The Twins can’t get by with one pitcher to trust late in games. If Jax doesn’t give up the lead in the 9th inning he just gives it up in the 8th inning and the Twins are in the same spot. Many of his blown saves are prior to the 9th inning.

They needed an inning from Jax and an inning from Duran yesterday. Of the two Jax was the only one that was rested to be able to pitch multiple innings. Morneau speculated that was the reason for the order yesterday. If something happens to Duran in the 8th, Jax was rested and could finish across two innings. The reverse was not true.

Jax failed to have a clean inning and Duran wasn’t going to give them two clean innings. I put that on Jax and not Baldelli though I do believe Baldelli’s use of the pen yesterday contributed to the loss. My issue was in the 5th inning,

[Aggies7]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Isn’t the save percentage of set up men? If they enter the game in the 7th or 8th set up men can get a blown save but won’t have an opportunity to record a save. Relievers can get a hold. Did you factor in holds into your calculation? Alternatively I suppose you could remove all blown save prior to the ninth inning to calculate the save percentage as a closer. That might be a pretty small sample to be meaningful though.

Maybe the save percentage calculation includes holds. @TwinsDr2021 data seems like it might. There is still a skew though. Closers usually enter in a clean inning. Set up men more often enter with runners on base giving them a greater chance to blow a save.

Both guys have been used interchangeably a lot during the last couple seasons though.
 

Granted, I never pitched above middling division 3, but I was always a proponent of relievers knowing what roles they have. Of course, everything goes out the window when your starters constantly get knocked out before they can go 5 or 6 innings.

[USAFChief]

49 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins can’t get by with one pitcher to trust late in games. If Jax doesn’t give up the lead in the 9th inning he just gives it up in the 8th inning and the Twins are in the same spot. Many of his blown saves are prior to the 9th inning.

They needed an inning from Jax and an inning from Duran yesterday. Of the two Jax was the only one that was rested to be able to pitch multiple innings. Morneau speculated that was the reason for the order yesterday. If something happens to Duran in the 8th, Jax was rested and could finish across two innings. The reverse was not true.

Jax failed to have a clean inning and Duran wasn’t going to give them two clean innings. I put that on Jax and not Baldelli though I do believe Baldelli’s use of the pen yesterday contributed to the loss. My issue was in the 5th inning,

Of course they can. MANY managers give the 9th to one guy, every time, provided he is available. 

Duran was available. He pitched, ferpetesakes.

There was NO reason to switch roles for Jax and Duran. There are documented reasons NOT to needlessly switch.

The only thing at play here is Rocco's endless need to prove he's the smartest guy in the room. And if he actually made this decision because he planned for Duran's possible failure? Good lord that's an even worse example of overthinking.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Also, I'm done with Paddock right now. Bring on the youth. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Of course they can. MANY managers give the 9th to one guy, every time, provided he is available. 

Duran was available. He pitched, ferpetesakes.

There was NO reason to switch roles for Jax and Duran. There are documented reasons NOT to needlessly switch.

The only thing at play here is Rocco's endless need to prove he's the smartest guy in the room. And if he actually made this decision because he planned for Duran's possible failure? Good lord that's an even worse example of overthinking.

 

 

My thought was they needed an inning from Jax to get to the end of the game and it didn’t matter which one Jax gave up runs. I was just being honest about my thinking in game in which Morneau’s comments resonated. In hindsight I was wrong but it is hindsight on my part. The part that wasn’t hindsight was the fifth inning. Sands would have warming before the inning and in after three noncompetitive pitches to walk the 8th batter. Even if he wasn’t warming at the beginning of the fifth he certainly should have been ready after they chose to review.

I don’t know how Jax does in the 8th. I am pretty sure Sands does a much better job than Paddack in the fifth if he is ready to go after that walk to the number 8 hitter.

[jorgenswest]

45 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, I'm done with Paddock right now. Bring on the youth. 

I would have brought up Zebby to be ready to piggy back today and in the rotation moving forward. It meet today’s immediate need and hopefully a long term need. He is rested and ready to go.

I don’t care if they find space by DFAing McCaughan or optioning Varland.  Either way they move Paddack to the bullpen and see if he can help there. I am not sure he can command four pitches and they need to reduce that down in a relief role.

They chose to bring up Blewett. I watched him pitch once on TV this year. He gave up two runs in the 7th inning (it was the last inning of a double header game 1) to send the game to an extra innings and a loss. 

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What do you expect from him? He is supposed to be the 7th or 8th guy out of the pen and has pitched in 6 of 9 games. He hasn't given up multiple runs yet and and hasn't given up a run in half of his appearances. I don't think he will ever be on the three or four best guys out of the pen, but what he is doing hasn't been horrible for a back end bullpen guy. If I have complaints it is that he hasn't been used for more than 1 inning causing the overuse of everybody.

That's definitely not how he is/was being billed. Is it asking too much to not allow 10 baserunners in 6 IP? Not giving up a run in half of your (1 inning) appearances is an insanely low bar for praise. The Twins aren't using him for multiple innings because they don't view him as a back end guy. He's getting more run than other arms because the team wants to use him. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

My thought was they needed an inning from Jax to get to the end of the game and it didn’t matter which one Jax gave up runs. 

Well that's different than your previous post, in which your (and Morneau apparently) stated reasoning was ",I use Duran first in case he can't get through the 8th, Jax csn give me more than 1 IP."

 

 

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, I'm done with Paddock right now. Bring on the youth. 

Paddock showed during the Twins last playoff run he was an absolute HAMMER out of the bullpen. It's the Twins fault for turning him back into a starter when he was nearly unhittable as a reliever. He's hurt all the time and can't get through 5 on the regular. Seemed a no brainer to me. Not sure why they had to make him a starter again. It's lead to nothing but disaster.

[TheLeviathan]

Prior to yesterday Paredes was 0-1, Alvarez 0-2, and Walker had never faced Jax.  

Alvarez was 0-4 and Paredes 0-2 against Duran.

So, yeah, I'm not sure what the impetus for that decision was.  It would seem that keeping them in their natural roles would've been supported by the data as well.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Well that's different than your previous post, in which your (and Morneau apparently) stated reasoning was ",I use Duran first in case he can't get through the 8th, Jax csn give me more than 1 IP."

 

 

My initial thought about needing both relievers meshed with Morneau’s stated reasoning about the order they would be used. I thought it was the correct move at the time. Jax proved me wrong. Doubly so really because I think because Baldelli gave Duran the bottom of the order in the 8th (8-9-1?) and the heart of the order to Jax. I didn’t factor that in at all.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Paddock showed during the Twins last playoff run he was an absolute HAMMER out of the bullpen. It's the Twins fault for turning him back into a starter when he was nearly unhittable as a reliever. He's hurt all the time and can't get through 5 on the regular. Seemed a no brainer to me. Not sure why they had to make him a starter again. It's lead to nothing but disaster.

It's leading to a total system failure as the brains of our organization continue to do the same thing day after day and expecting different results  ...

Playing the game with analytic strategy is no strategy at all , can't keep reading from the analytic pages  , maybe we don't even need a manager , I think the players could read those spread sheets and contruct a team to play more exciting baseball  ...