Manuel Margot and the Delmon Young Trade Tree

[Greggory Masterson]

Here’s a couple of left fielders who make your heart stop when a ball is lofted their way. They also share a connection. You might even say Delmon Young caused Manuel Margot.

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Alright, I’m going to start this article with a warning: we’re about to get into the weeds about something that genuinely doesn’t mean anything. But isn’t that what baseball is built on? Anyway, you’ve been warned.

About a year ago, on this very site, I posted a step-by-step retelling of the fallout of the 2007 trade between the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Devil Rays that sent Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza to Florida for Delmon Young. It’s now a year out of date, but it’s a good read covering what happened between 2007 and 2023 as a result of that trade.

Here’s the synopsis: Delmon Young was not very good, but Bartlett and Garza were. Then Bartlett and Garza got flipped to bring more talent to Tampa, and some of that talent was flipped, and some of the resulting talent was flipped. The Rays still have seven guys in the organization who can be traced back to Young’s trade, and they’ve gained 60-some wins above replacement from those players. The Twins got approximately 1 win above replacement from Young.

I’m not the first to notice this tree. There’s even a website with a handy visual that tells the story. But I do find some responsibility to serve as something of an arbiter of the math, given that my article is the third result if you Google “Delmon Young trade tree.”

Toward the end of last year’s write-up, I noted that the most recent move muddied the water a bit on the trade tree. On December 16th, the Rays traded pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers for starter Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca. The Rays acquired Glasnow in a trade for Chris Archer, who was acquired in a trade for Garza, who was a member of the original Delmon Young trade.

However, Margot was not a product of that trade tree, and he was the only MLB player ever included as part of a trade in the tree. That presents a bit of a conundrum for record keepers. One of the magical parts of the Delmon Young Trade Tree was that the Rays continued to flip assets for new blood almost exclusively in trades by themselves. Archer was traded for Shane Baz, Austin Meadows, and Glasnow. There were no outside players involved. Occasionally, a minor leaguer was sent out with the Rays' big leaguers, but there was never a branch that included another big leaguer.

It was all clean until Margot. So what were we, the sickos who care to track these things, supposed to do? Pepiot and DeLuca’s value couldn’t be isolated to Glasnow’s return. They were the return for Glasnow and Margot.

Do we only count half of their value since the other half could be attributed to the return for Margot? Surely not, because Glasnow was the headliner. Do we chop the branch off, since it’s not holy and pure? That’s not very satisfying, either. Per Baseball Reference, Pepiot and DeLuca netted 2.7 WAR for the Rays this year, and the trade was headlined by a product of the tree. You can’t just write that off.

But like Gandalf riding over the horizon at sunrise, something magical happened. Before Margot had a chance to play a single game in Dodger Blue, he was traded. He was wiped from the organization. The day is saved.

Eagle-eyed readers will notice something: it wasn’t just any team that rid the Dodgers of Margot — it was the Minnesota Twins. It was the ne’er-do-wells who instigated this whole story, swooping in to save the day as if they didn’t want the tale to end. And so Margot was excised from the tree entirely — or was he?

Yes, the Dodgers didn’t keep him, but he was still acquired for a prospect that the Twins valued — infielder Noah Miller. How do we solve this? I’m willing to squint and take artistic liberties and view this as a three-team trade. Minnesota acquired Margot and Rayne Doncon. Los Angeles acquired Glasnow and Miller. Tampa Bay acquired Pepiot and DeLuca. Everyone is happy.

But here’s the next question: does Margot appear on the ledger of the Delmon Young Trade Tree on the side of the Twins? The Twins haven’t accumulated any value since the mid-2010s. It would be great to include another player on the Twins’ side, allowing them to recoup a little value. I mean, Margot was ostensibly traded from Tampa to Minnesota in the Glasnow trade. It only makes sense.

Here’s the kicker: including Margot actually makes the Delmon Young trade worse. Remember the 1 WAR the Twins gained from Young’s tenure in Minnesota? It’s almost all negated by Margot’s -0.9 WAR in 2024.

The Twins simply cannot catch a break.

This required too much brain power to mull over. I don’t even want to start on whether Noah Miller’s potential MLB career should now be counted as value lost by the Twins in the Delmon Young trade. All I can do at this point is pray that Rayne Doncon turns into something.

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[bean5302]

Pierzynski -> Liriano -> Escobar -> Duran, who could yet be traded for more stuff. The trade trees can go on forever, haha.

[Greggory Masterson]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Pierzynski -> Liriano -> Escobar -> Duran, who could yet be traded for more stuff. The trade trees can go on forever, haha.

If you really want to get granular, the Delmon trade technically started with Knoblauch->Buchanan->Bartlett

[CRF]

I think an actual tree, could field better than both those guys....probably move better too. 

[Parfigliano]

Delmon had an abundance of talent but never got the results.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

I think an actual tree, could field better than both those guys....probably move better too. 

I was in Milwaukee when a routine fly ball directly to Delmom (5-10 ft.) nearly conked him on the head. It was ruled a double. Something about that guy was oddly adorable, even as I wanted him gone.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Rickey Henderson passed away. Crap. One of my all-time favorite players. The man had a winning attitude to go along with his immense talent.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Alright, I’m going to start this article with a warning:

Sir, you have my curiosity.

Quote

we’re about to get into the weeds about something that genuinely doesn’t mean anything.

But now you have my attention.    
 

Quote

About a year ago, on this very site, I posted a step-by-step retelling of the fallout of the 2007 trade

...

it’s a good read

"I often quote myself. It adds spice to my conversation."  -- George Bernard Shaw

Quote

You might even say Delmon Young caused Manuel Margot.

Delmon was only 9 years old when Manuel was born, but denizens of the underworld do have capabilities beyond those of mere mortals, so I suppose the claim is possible.

[arby58]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Pierzynski -> Liriano -> Escobar -> Duran, who could yet be traded for more stuff. The trade trees can go on forever, haha.

That would be an interesting tree, given that the Twins also got Joe Nathan and (less importantly) Boof Bonser. I'm sure the WAR from that one worked out pretty well for the Twins.

[Linus]

Bill Smith gets credit for trying to spend some of the Pohlads money and signing Polo Max and Sano. But boy he had some bad trades. 
 

Looking back he probably lost his job because he actually wanted to spend money. 

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

That would be an interesting tree, given that the Twins also got Joe Nathan and (less importantly) Boof Bonser. I'm sure the WAR from that one worked out pretty well for the Twins.

I actually outlined that in my writeup from last year. Here’s the section on the AJ trade, accurate as of the beginning of the 2024 season:

I may be a great lout, but let’s look at the Twins' own history for context. Many cite the 2003 trade that sent A.J. Pierzynski to San Francisco as the greatest heist in Twins history. Pierzynski played for the Giants for one year (0.3 WAR) and was released.

In return, the Twins gained Boof Bonser (-0.2 WAR), fireballer Francisco Liriano (9.3 WAR), and the greatest closer in team history, Joe Nathan (18.4 WAR). It was undeniably a franchise-altering move that also paved the way for Joe Mauer’s ascent.

It gets better, though. Nathan walked in free agency after nine seasons, and Bonser was traded for Chris Province, who never made the big leagues, but Liriano was traded in 2012. In return, the White Sox sent pitcher Pedro Hernández (-0.7 WAR) and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar.

Escobar had a productive seven-season career in Minnesota (5.7 WAR) and was traded in 2018 to Arizona during a deadline fire sale. The Diamondbacks returned a package that included Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad, who left the organization before reaching the majors. It also brought back hard-throwing pitching prospect Jhoan Durán (4.7 WAR).

Durán will continue accumulating value for Minnesota, and the returns for Pierzynski currently add up to 37.2 WAR, which is substantial. Compared to the 0.3 WAR Pierzynski put up in San Francisco, there’s no way to take the trades as anything other than a win. However, it’s just over half of the value of the Young trade, and there’s only one piece in Minnesota still chugging along, compared to four in Tampa. The Pierzynski also took place four seasons earlier than the Young trade.

[SAL]

On 12/21/2024 at 12:23 PM, Parfigliano said:

Delmon had an abundance of talent but never got the results.

Who would've thought a number one overall draft pick who threw a bat at an umpire wouldn't work out