Manuel Margot and the Delmon Young Trade Tree

Alright, I’m going to start this article with a warning: we’re about to get into the weeds about something that genuinely doesn’t mean anything. But isn’t that what baseball is built on? Anyway, you’ve been warned.

About a year ago, on this very site, I posted a step-by-step retelling of the fallout of the 2007 trade between the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Devil Rays that sent Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza to Florida for Delmon Young. It’s now a year out of date, but it’s a good read covering what happened between 2007 and 2023 as a result of that trade.

Here’s the synopsis: Delmon Young was not very good, but Bartlett and Garza were. Then Bartlett and Garza got flipped to bring more talent to Tampa, and some of that talent was flipped, and some of the resulting talent was flipped. The Rays still have seven guys in the organization who can be traced back to Young’s trade, and they’ve gained 60-some wins above replacement from those players. The Twins got approximately 1 win above replacement from Young.

I’m not the first to notice this tree. There’s even a website with a handy visual that tells the story. But I do find some responsibility to serve as something of an arbiter of the math, given that my article is the third result if you Google “Delmon Young trade tree.”

Toward the end of last year’s write-up, I noted that the most recent move muddied the water a bit on the trade tree. On December 16th, the Rays traded pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers for starter Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca. The Rays acquired Glasnow in a trade for Chris Archer, who was acquired in a trade for Garza, who was a member of the original Delmon Young trade.

However, Margot was not a product of that trade tree, and he was the only MLB player ever included as part of a trade in the tree. That presents a bit of a conundrum for record keepers. One of the magical parts of the Delmon Young Trade Tree was that the Rays continued to flip assets for new blood almost exclusively in trades by themselves. Archer was traded for Shane Baz, Austin Meadows, and Glasnow. There were no outside players involved. Occasionally, a minor leaguer was sent out with the Rays' big leaguers, but there was never a branch that included another big leaguer.

It was all clean until Margot. So what were we, the sickos who care to track these things, supposed to do? Pepiot and DeLuca’s value couldn’t be isolated to Glasnow’s return. They were the return for Glasnow and Margot.

Do we only count half of their value since the other half could be attributed to the return for Margot? Surely not, because Glasnow was the headliner. Do we chop the branch off, since it’s not holy and pure? That’s not very satisfying, either. Per Baseball Reference, Pepiot and DeLuca netted 2.7 WAR for the Rays this year, and the trade was headlined by a product of the tree. You can’t just write that off.

But like Gandalf riding over the horizon at sunrise, something magical happened. Before Margot had a chance to play a single game in Dodger Blue, he was traded. He was wiped from the organization. The day is saved.

Eagle-eyed readers will notice something: it wasn’t just any team that rid the Dodgers of Margot — it was the Minnesota Twins. It was the ne’er-do-wells who instigated this whole story, swooping in to save the day as if they didn’t want the tale to end. And so Margot was excised from the tree entirely — or was he?

Yes, the Dodgers didn’t keep him, but he was still acquired for a prospect that the Twins valued — infielder Noah Miller. How do we solve this? I’m willing to squint and take artistic liberties and view this as a three-team trade. Minnesota acquired Margot and Rayne Doncon. Los Angeles acquired Glasnow and Miller. Tampa Bay acquired Pepiot and DeLuca. Everyone is happy.

But here’s the next question: does Margot appear on the ledger of the Delmon Young Trade Tree on the side of the Twins? The Twins haven’t accumulated any value since the mid-2010s. It would be great to include another player on the Twins’ side, allowing them to recoup a little value. I mean, Margot was ostensibly traded from Tampa to Minnesota in the Glasnow trade. It only makes sense.

Here’s the kicker: including Margot actually makes the Delmon Young trade worse. Remember the 1 WAR the Twins gained from Young’s tenure in Minnesota? It’s almost all negated by Margot’s -0.9 WAR in 2024.

The Twins simply cannot catch a break.

This required too much brain power to mull over. I don’t even want to start on whether Noah Miller’s potential MLB career should now be counted as value lost by the Twins in the Delmon Young trade. All I can do at this point is pray that Rayne Doncon turns into something.