The Darnold Decision

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Deadline is tomorrow to issue franchise tags. My confidence in Kwesi will take a massive hit if he can’t figure out a way to tag and trade the top QB on the market in a horrible QB draft class year. 

Supposedly not happening.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Deadline is tomorrow to issue franchise tags. My confidence in Kwesi will take a massive hit if he can’t figure out a way to tag and trade the top QB on the market in a horrible QB draft class year. 

I'll be  disappointed, but I'll wait to see what Darnold actually gets on the free agent market. If he gets less than anticipated, then we might have to give KAM a pass (not that I want to).

However, I am concerned about how the league is letting Brady and the Raiders tamper with no repercussions. The official story is that Brady and Stafford just happened to bump into each other in Montana? Come on. This league is seriously worse than the mob. I could see Brady telling Darnold's agent to angle for free agency and they'll guarantee paying him 40M or whatever.

Atlanta tampered last year and the NFL didn't give one rotten crap about it. If it happened to the Cowboys though, watch out, there would be hell to pay.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'll be  disappointed, but I'll wait to see what Darnold actually gets on the free agent market. If he gets less than anticipated, then we might have to give KAM a pass (not that I want to).

However, I am concerned about how the league is letting Brady and the Raiders tamper with no repercussions. The official story is that Brady and Stafford just happened to bump into each other in Montana? Come on. This league is seriously worse than the mob. I could see Brady telling Darnold's agent to angle for free agency and they'll guarantee paying him 40M or whatever.

Atlanta tampered last year and the NFL didn't give one rotten crap about it. If it happened to the Cowboys though, watch out, there would be hell to pay.

It will be mind boggling to me if Kwesi can’t get value out of a top QB option in a terrible market. Part of me wonders if he’s too scared to ruffle feathers in order to protect their good guy culture they’ve built. Kwesi is supposed to be an analytics guy, and every baseball analytics FO gets value out of assets they rebuilt. 

Re: tampering. Yeah, Brady is the golden boy of the NFL and they allow him to do whatever he wants. He should not be both an owner and broadcaster. Pick a lane. Why are we pretending he’s not getting insider info every single week to use for the Raiders’ benefit?

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It will be mind boggling to me if Kwesi can’t get value out of a top QB option in a terrible market. Part of me wonders if he’s too scared to ruffle feathers in order to protect their good guy culture they’ve built. Kwesi is supposed to be an analytics guy, and every baseball analytics FO gets value out of assets they rebuilt. 

Re: tampering. Yeah, Brady is the golden boy of the NFL and they allow him to do whatever he wants. He should not be both an owner and broadcaster. Pick a lane. Why are we pretending he’s not getting insider info every single week to use for the Raiders’ benefit?

I'm not sure tagging Darnold would hurt their 'good guy' standing. I mean, if they trade him, he'll be gone and the rest of the players surely would prefer to have the better draft capital to try to build a better team.

I think it comes down to what we've all been worried about since the playoff game. Will they get stuck with Darnold if they tag him? I still think that's a significant possibility. While he's probably the consensus top QB available, I don't think he's the unanimous top QB available. He indisputably has the most upside, but Rodgers, Cousins and Wilson probably have a much safer floor. And most of the teams looking for a QB, are probably looking for a bridge QB; as a Vikings fan, I wouldn't want ANY of these guys long term. The safer, cheaper, older QBs may be more attractive to the teams that actually need a QB for just a year or two but still want to see if they can squeak into the playoffs.

Put ourselves in the shoes of a Raiders or Giants fan. As a team that's not close to a championship, do I want to give Darnold 40M for three or four years? Or give Rodgers/Cousins/Wilson 20M for a year or two. I'd go for the second option in a heartbeat. Because while Darnold has the higher ceiling, it's not high enough to make you a legit contender.

[TheLeviathan]

46 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not sure tagging Darnold would hurt their 'good guy' standing. I mean, if they trade him, he'll be gone and the rest of the players surely would prefer to have the better draft capital to try to build a better team.

I think it comes down to what we've all been worried about since the playoff game. Will they get stuck with Darnold if they tag him? I still think that's a significant possibility. While he's probably the consensus top QB available, I don't think he's the unanimous top QB available. He indisputably has the most upside, but Rodgers, Cousins and Wilson probably have a much safer floor. And most of the teams looking for a QB, are probably looking for a bridge QB; as a Vikings fan, I wouldn't want ANY of these guys long term. The safer, cheaper, older QBs may be more attractive to the teams that actually need a QB for just a year or two but still want to see if they can squeak into the playoffs.

Put ourselves in the shoes of a Raiders or Giants fan. As a team that's not close to a championship, do I want to give Darnold 40M for three or four years? Or give Rodgers/Cousins/Wilson 20M for a year or two. I'd go for the second option in a heartbeat. Because while Darnold has the higher ceiling, it's not high enough to make you a legit contender.

Right...it comes down to your confidence you can trade him.  If you can't.....that's a huge chunk of spending room gone.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not sure tagging Darnold would hurt their 'good guy' standing. I mean, if they trade him, he'll be gone and the rest of the players surely would prefer to have the better draft capital to try to build a better team.

I think it comes down to what we've all been worried about since the playoff game. Will they get stuck with Darnold if they tag him? I still think that's a significant possibility. While he's probably the consensus top QB available, I don't think he's the unanimous top QB available. He indisputably has the most upside, but Rodgers, Cousins and Wilson probably have a much safer floor. And most of the teams looking for a QB, are probably looking for a bridge QB; as a Vikings fan, I wouldn't want ANY of these guys long term. The safer, cheaper, older QBs may be more attractive to the teams that actually need a QB for just a year or two but still want to see if they can squeak into the playoffs.

Put ourselves in the shoes of a Raiders or Giants fan. As a team that's not close to a championship, do I want to give Darnold 40M for three or four years? Or give Rodgers/Cousins/Wilson 20M for a year or two. I'd go for the second option in a heartbeat. Because while Darnold has the higher ceiling, it's not high enough to make you a legit contender.

I’d go with Darnold over the old veterans IMO. Darnold gives them a chance at a longer term solution at QB. Rodgers, Kirk, and Wilson provide a 1 year band aid that likely takes them out of a top 5 draft pick next year. 

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’d go with Darnold over the old veterans IMO. Darnold gives them a chance at a longer term solution at QB. Rodgers, Kirk, and Wilson provide a 1 year band aid that likely takes them out of a top 5 draft pick next year. 

Going with Darnold seems like doing the original Cousins deal in 2018 but with much higher chance that Darnold will implode. 

If things go OK, Darnold also takes you out of a top 5 pick next year. It also probably takes you out of a deep playoff run. And he's getting a longer deal, which means a longer period of not top 5 picks and not deep playoff runs.

[Vanimal46]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Going with Darnold seems like doing the original Cousins deal in 2018 but with much higher chance that Darnold will implode. 

If things go OK, Darnold also takes you out of a top 5 pick next year. It also probably takes you out of a deep playoff run. And he's getting a longer deal, which means a longer period of not top 5 picks and not deep playoff runs.

If things go OK, they get a borderline top 10 QB for less than the market rate which is 50-55 million. Darnold will have a market… Kwesi should know what the market is and make a trade. Otherwise I have zero confidence in him managing this organization long term. 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If things go OK, they get a borderline top 10 QB for less than the market rate which is 50-55 million. Darnold will have a market… Kwesi should know what the market is and make a trade. Otherwise I have zero confidence in him managing this organization long term. 

But do you think Darnold can carry a team to the Super Bowl? Because that's what every GM who has to pay a QB 40M+ is asking himself. 

I don't think he can, and based on the league-wide narrative after he choked in the two biggest games of the season, very few others think he can.

I have serious doubts that there is any team that would both pay Darnold 40M+ AND trade draft picks. Maybe if it was only one or the other, but not both. 

Due to his poor drafting, I'm ready to move on from KAM, but I'm in the complete opposite boat than you on this topic. I think if he IS able to pull of a trade, it will be the slickest move any GM pulls on another GM all off season. Any GM who pays big money and gives picks for Darnold is either desperate or a sucker, and probably both. If I was a fan of the team doing this, I would be furious.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

It will be mind boggling to me if Kwesi can’t get value out of a top QB option in a terrible market. Part of me wonders if he’s too scared to ruffle feathers in order to protect their good guy culture they’ve built. Kwesi is supposed to be an analytics guy, and every baseball analytics FO gets value out of assets they rebuilt. 

Re: tampering. Yeah, Brady is the golden boy of the NFL and they allow him to do whatever he wants. He should not be both an owner and broadcaster. Pick a lane. Why are we pretending he’s not getting insider info every single week to use for the Raiders’ benefit?

Was saying it prior to last year's draft Kwesi needs to go.  Opinion wasn't popular then but it will be .

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

If things go OK, they get a borderline top 10 QB for less than the market rate which is 50-55 million. Darnold will have a market… Kwesi should know what the market is and make a trade. Otherwise I have zero confidence in him managing this organization long term. 

What if the Raiders decide to drag their feet?  Or the Giants?  Even a week with 40M tied up in Darnold is enough to effectively take us out of the free agency game.  

Look, I lean towards sign and trade, but there are serious drawbacks if things don't go smoothly.  Are you willing to risk your shot at a top guard, DB, and pass rusher to pick up a 3rd?

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

What if the Raiders decide to drag their feet?  Or the Giants?  Even a week with 40M tied up in Darnold is enough to effectively take us out of the free agency game.  

Look, I lean towards sign and trade, but there are serious drawbacks if things don't go smoothly.  Are you willing to risk your shot at a top guard, DB, and pass rusher to pick up a 3rd?

Agreed. They can only tag him if they already have a trade in place. And I don't know why any other team would give the Vikings that option for a non-elite player.

If Darnold was good enough for a tag-and-trade to be an obvious slam-dunk option, wouldn't every Vikings fan on the planet be demanding Darnold stay? Yet, it's nearly unanimously the opposite.

[Vanimal46]

50 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

What if the Raiders decide to drag their feet?  Or the Giants?  Even a week with 40M tied up in Darnold is enough to effectively take us out of the free agency game.  

Look, I lean towards sign and trade, but there are serious drawbacks if things don't go smoothly.  Are you willing to risk your shot at a top guard, DB, and pass rusher to pick up a 3rd?

Free agents don’t sign same day, the final details are usually ironed out a day or 3 after it’s announced a player is signing somewhere. There’s contract restructures they will probably do later in the offseason anyway. They can hold onto a $40 million trade chip and still participate in free agency right away. 

Tomorrow will be telling. We won’t tag him unless a trade is already in place. It’s just going to bother me greatly if we got the best possible outcome out of a failing QB, and he walks for nothing. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Was saying it prior to last year's draft Kwesi needs to go.  Opinion wasn't popular then but it will be .

It’s pretty telling where he stands right now.. KOC was extended a month ago, and Kwesi is a lame duck GM. 

[TheLeviathan]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Free agents don’t sign same day, the final details are usually ironed out a day or 3 after it’s announced a player is signing somewhere. There’s contract restructures they will probably do later in the offseason anyway. They can hold onto a $40 million trade chip and still participate in free agency right away. 

Tomorrow will be telling. We won’t tag him unless a trade is already in place. It’s just going to bother me greatly if we got the best possible outcome out of a failing QB, and he walks for nothing. 

A trade takes two.  All those teams need to do is be patient, so there is leverage both ways. 

40M is Jevon Holland, Will Fries, and a veteran CB.  It's a significant shackle.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

A trade takes two.  All those teams need to do is be patient, so there is leverage both ways. 

40M is Jevon Holland, Will Fries, and a veteran CB.  It's a significant shackle.

Yeah, if it's not a sure thing, I don't risk netting a non-1st round pick to skip out on the top free agents.

[nicksaviking]

Thinking about this more, if one team is willing to trade for Darnold, doesn't it have to be the Giants? They were the team that kept the HC and GM despite a terrible season, so that's probably the one team that would eye a low ceiling put possible wild card season as a success. They're surely more concerned with saving their jobs than they are winning a championship. Which in my book is cowardly and self severing to the point that immediate firing would be justified.

Tom Brady and Pete Carroll? Doesn't make much sense, those two almost certainly have their eyes on the big prize.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s pretty telling where he stands right now.. KOC was extended a month ago, and Kwesi is a lame duck GM. 

I'm shocked Kwesi hasn't been extended. It speaks loudly, imo.

[Vanimal46]

I’ve accepted it before the decision was made. Super lame and now I’m watching for the numbers when Darnold lands elsewhere. 

[Vanimal46]

Hard to imagine an opportunity like that again for the Vikings. I’d rather have a guaranteed return, even if it was a 4th or 5th round pick, over hoping the comp pick calculator works in our favor. 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Hard to imagine an opportunity like that again for the Vikings. I’d rather have a guaranteed return, even if it was a 4th or 5th round pick, over hoping the comp pick calculator works in our favor. 

I'm not missing out on the first days of free agency just to get a 4th round pick in return. Half of the best players seem to go off the board by then.

[gunnarthor]

14 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Tom Brady and Pete Carroll? Doesn't make much sense, those two almost certainly have their eyes on the big prize.

Pete Carroll has already said he doesn't think they need a rebuilding year. 

I know this is kind of your windmill but teams don't tank in the NFL. Coaches and GMs don't think we'll be better off if we lose a lot this year. Cripes, Flores got fired for resisting that and the NFL took away the Dolphins first round pick, kicked their owner off of all committees and fined him millions - not for being a racist prick but for trying to tank. 

[gunnarthor]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm shocked Kwesi hasn't been extended. It speaks loudly, imo.

There were reports that the two sides were engaging in negotiations a month ago. I haven't heard anything yet but, frankly, I think the Vikings would be nuts to let him go. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10148799-report-vikings-gm-kwesi-adofo-mensah-in-contract-talks-after-oconnell-extension

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Pete Carroll has already said he doesn't think they need a rebuilding year. 

I know this is kind of your windmill but teams don't tank in the NFL. Coaches and GMs don't think we'll be better off if we lose a lot this year. Cripes, Flores got fired for resisting that and the NFL took away the Dolphins first round pick, kicked their owner off of all committees and fined him millions - not for being a racist prick but for trying to tank. 

I'm sure the Raiders leadership won't tank. And I've heard the rumors that they are interested in Darnold, despite Brady's criticisms while calling the game against the Rams. But signing Rodgers or Cousins accomplishes the same thing as signing Darnold, that being possible respectability, and neither of those two will hamper your long term goal of winning a championship. 

[gunnarthor]

So we didn't tag him and he will be a free agent. I think this post at dailynorseman sums up how I feel pretty well - 

Now that all is basically said and done, I think the intangible value Sam gave us cannot be overstated... He was, at best, a reclamation project and a bridge QB to the JJM era. That era took a ding in the form of a bum knee. We all threw our hands up and said "that's so Vikings..." That is, until Sam lead us to 14 wins, a pro bowl nod, and no shortage of some of the most exciting games I've seen in quite a while. In the process, Sam helped put the Vikes on the map as a contender and a destination where a FA can go to thrive. We became a viable destination for recruiting talent to add to a blossoming roster. And we did all that for a "measly" $10m price tag. I hope the best for Sam and will root from afar, but let's see what that newfound clout, a bag of FA cash, and JJM can do to swing our SB window wide open for the next several years.

[Vanimal46]

Kwesi has let 3 of the biggest assets in the organization leave without much of a fight. Kirko, Hunter, now Darnold. That’s not exactly screaming analytics to me. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kwesi has let 3 of the biggest assets in the organization leave without much of a fight. Kirko, Hunter, now Darnold. That’s not exactly screaming analytics to me. 

Here's the thing though....would that have made sense in any of those cases?  I get that this is the Phil Mackey talking point, but it's incredibly surface level.

Kirk Cousins would've taken that franchise tag, signed it, and happily played under it.  Goodbye Greenard.  Goodbye Gink.  Goodbye all sorts of options.  Plus another year of Kirk.  And by the looks of it we damn sure wouldn't have got anything for him this year.

Hunter would've meant no Greenard, no Gink, no FA contracts.  He might've also stayed.  Maybe you could've squeezed someone for an asset, he's the best case for it.  But it would've come with costs.

And Darnold?  Time was on his side.  If his agency didn't like the tag and denying them free agency....they could refuse to sign it, taking the cap room from the Vikings, and slow playing their interest in being moved.  The Vikings miss out on free agency, have a disgruntled player eating 40M, and watch their market for a return shrink.

Basically, if the player and their agent don't want to play ball.....there is no ball to play here.  The only way this would've worked is one of Darnold's pursuers want him badly enough to start trade talks.  It sounds like that didn't happen.

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kwesi has let 3 of the biggest assets in the organization leave without much of a fight. Kirko, Hunter, now Darnold. That’s not exactly screaming analytics to me. 

Sure, but so far he's two for two when it comes to letting them walk and using the savings to replace them PLUS other positions.

[The Great Hambino]

14 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kwesi has let 3 of the biggest assets in the organization leave without much of a fight. Kirko, Hunter, now Darnold. That’s not exactly screaming analytics to me. 

The market dynamics and assets available are so different between football and baseball - no minor league trade chips, salary cap, non-guaranteed contracts and amortized bonuses affecting cap space - that trying to compare the roster-building value dynamics of the two sports makes no sense.

Cap space is an asset.  Optimal asset allocation within the cap is an asset.  Cutting or moving on from the right player at the right time can add value.  There was a real chance that tagging Darnold would result in the Vikings holding a $40MM bag at a time when the roster needs an infusion of free agents (draft pick management is also an asset, and one that is certainly big check in the negative column for KAM so far).

The third round pick that the combo of Cousins and Hunter leaving ended up netting is an asset.  So is the surplus value relative to cost that Greenard provided last year relative to Hunter.  All things that added value without receiving compensation in trade.

[Vanimal46]

Some teams do it better than others extracting value out of their players. KC traded 33 year old Joe Thuney with 1 year $15 million cap hit to the Bears for a 2026 4th round pick.